Saturday, September 20, 2008

POLL: Fairfax Nielson Poll 20 Sept 2008


A snapshot of the public mood after Helen Clark's election-date announcement shows it would take a huge swing to Labour for her to win a fourth term.

Today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll, taken mostly in the days after Miss Clark named a November 8 election, puts National on 52 per cent support, 18 points ahead of Labour.

The poll confirms a trend which has had National sitting above 50 per cent since November - and John Key ahead of Miss Clark as preferred prime minister for almost as long. It is a golden run of support that Labour will find difficult to break as the election date looms.

In announcing the November 8 election, Miss Clark was banking on a long campaign to chip away at her opponent on the key issues of trust and experience.

Continued


Fairfax Nielson polls

Fairfax Nielson Poll: August 16 2008

Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008

Fairfax Neilson Poll: 21 June 2008

Fairfax Neilson Poll: 17 May 2008

Fairfax Neilson Poll: 23 Feb 2008

c Stuff.co.nz & Political Animal 2008


Is this a dagger which I see before me?

Clark maintained that had National been in government during the Iraq war, "they would most certainly have had blood on their hands"



The made up figures plucked from Helen Clark's evil little brain around how many troop casualties New Zealand might have had if John key had sent them to Iraq got me thinking about the bad blood scandal of 1990 and Helen Clark's central involvement in it.

While Clark's hypothetical fantasy figure of 60 Kiwi troops dying in a war we didn't send any combatants to was over hyped to the extreme,and,well, pure fantasy, Clark's decision as Health Minister in 1990 not to screen blood for hepatitis C, when other foreign jurisdictions were doing just that means that Clark actually does have blood on her hands.


In the early nineties, Clark and Upton decided that technology allowing screening of blood for Hepatitis C would not be used in the New Zealand health system; 250 haemophiliacs were infected and up to 20 people may have died as a result of this decision. Like the Berrymans, the people infected have found it impossible ever since to get justice. 

"Haemophiliacs investigating the "bad blood scandal" of the 1990s have been stymied by a 30-year embargo placed on sensitive documents from Prime Minister Helen Clark's time as health minister."


The baseless fear mongering by Clark this week just goes to show what depths Labour will plumb to retain power.

This fear and loathing type strategy is the way she runs the country and in a crossover to the election campaign the knife has really been stuck into the shoulder blades of the opposition.

The only problem being, with the Iraqi case the blade is not only rusty and blunt but missing the thrust of truth or any foundation of such.

She really should put her own house in order first before making stuff up and stuffing up.

"Will all great Neptune's ocean wash this blood clean from my hand? No, this my hand will rather the multitudinous seas incarnadine, making the green one red" 

Macbeth Quote (Act II, Sc. II). 


c Political Animal 2008

Follow the Monopoly Board

One question an investor in the stockmarket might be asking themselves right now is just when should one start buying stocks again.

Warren Buffett used his massive multi billions in cash to buy an energy company, Constellation Energy yesterday for a bargain price and he seems to be the only person in the world buying things, except the US federal government buying up private debt to "stop the markets from crashing".

Clearly nobody knows just how long this credit purge is going to continue for but what we do know is that there is more bad news to come.

That would indicate to me that there is more downside risk for stocks to come.

As long as the purchase you make is one that you can afford to hold and not have to sell if you need the money then a good beaten down stock is definitely one worth taking an educated punt on.

If one uses the Monopoly Board type style of investing that Warren Buffett has been using over the last year, buying utilities and more shares in staple producing companies like Coca Cola and Kraft foods an investor would do well to purchase similar shares if they exist on the NZX.

So what would you buy and what is resilient in these times of economic uncertainly and market turmoil?

Any of our energy stocks would be a good buy, Trustpower Ltd [TPW] Contact Energy [CEN] and Vector Ltd [VCT] will all do well in an extended downturn.

A company that I own, Goodman Fielder [
GFF] is an Australasian food giant with great brands and a whole range of staple food items from breakfast to dinner and all the snacks in between that people are still going to buy.

Auckland International Airport [
AIA] which I also have a shareholding in, is another good monopoly that will do OK during a downturn and its shares are currently at multi-year lows.

Even Telecom New Zealand [
TEL] would be worth laying some money down at anything less than $2.50 and it is getting close to that price. Even during a deep recession people will still need to communicate.

While there are plenty of cheap stocks worth looking at, especially in retailing, transport and export sectors and they are worth buying for a long-term investment, these companies are going to find the going tough during the long recession we are going to face.

Look for companies with strong brands, monopoly or near monopoly positions in their markets and the ability to cuts costs without impacting too heavily on their business.

The power companies that I mentioned would probably be some of the best performers over the recession and market sentiment as it currently is, that is, it is crap, like Warren Buffett you might get a relative bargain.


Related Amazon Reading

Everything I Know About Business I Learned From Monopoly
Everything I Know About Business I Learned From Monopoly by Alan Axelrod
Buy new: $11.65 / Used from: $2.00
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c Share Investor 2008



Friday, September 19, 2008

POLL: Roy Morgan Poll 17 Sept 2008

Federal Poll : Finding No. 4319 : These are the latest results from the Roy Morgan New Zealand voting research conducted with 823 electors across New Zealand between September 1-14, 2008. : September 17, 2008

In mid September 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 47.5% (up 3%), a lead of 11% (up 4.5%) over the Labour Party 36.5% (down 1.5%) as the 2008 Election campaign begins.

If the Election were this weekend the National Party would lead the winning Coalition.

Support for NZ First 5% (up 2.5%) has rebounded after the party funding scandal that engulfed leader Winston Peters while support for the Greens 6.5% (down 1.5%) has fallen back.Support for the Maori Party was 1.5% (down 2%), ACT NZ 1.5% (unchanged), United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 1% (unchanged). Full article.


Roy Morgan Polls

Roy Morgan Poll: Sept 4 2008

Roy Morgan Poll: August 15 2008

Roy Morgan Poll: August 1 2008

Roy Morgan Poll: July 18 2008

c Political Animal 2008