Polls Apart

That Billy Joel sure was a sensitive character, Honesty and A Matter of Trust two big hits pleading for, well, trust.

After Helen Clark's long winded election date speech on Friday, she emphasised that the election, for her, will be "about trust" and which leader has the New Zealand citizens trust.

There have been a couple of large polls taken by the two large newspaper groups in the country, APN and Fairfax and both show a massive swing to the National Party.

Here are the two polls, taken since the Prime Ministers speech on Friday.

From Stuff.co.nz:

Announcing the election date, Prime Minister Helen Clark said the campaign would be about trust. Who do you trust more?

Helen Clark (4748 votes, 24.0%) 

John Key (15061 votes, 76.0%)

Stuff polls are not scientific and reflect the opinions of only those internet users who have chosen to participate

See current polling on Stuff.co.nz here .

From the New Zealand Herald.co.nz:

Who will you vote for in the election?

Out of 9128 votes so far the National Party vote is at 60% while Labour is at 20%

Go here to see full poll

The Stuff poll is from the left side of the journalistic realm and the NZ Herald poll is from a more centrist perspective-Granny used to be right wing-so it is interesting to see both media outlets showing similar swings to National.

Not scientific but a good indication.

You can vote in the Political Animal Poll as well: 

Which Party will get your Constituency vote?  View Results & Vote

Which Party will get your Party vote? View Results & Vote

There will be a Colmar Brunton TV One poll out latter this evening.

Related Political Animal reading

The Glamorous Life

c Political Animal 2008

The Glamorous life

In a billboard revealed yesterday by Helen Clark to mark the kick off of her 2008 election campaign, to be spearheaded by notions of "trust" and "honesty", things seem to have gone wrong from the get go.

Take a glance at the photo on the extreme left and see if you recognise who it is on that hideous red hoarding.

Clark has been "retouched slightly" says her photographer-who would want to touch her in the first place this author wonders out loud-but even supporters of Helen have trouble picking their leader 

"Bit of air brushing, looks gorgeous."

Just some advice from a political virgin such as myself, if you are going to preach honesty and trust and all those other lovely moral virtues, first of all don't make a career out of lying and secondly make sure your election hoardings actually look like yourself.

Political Animal readers favourite link

VIDEO: Helen Hits out!

c Political Animal 2008

Honesty: Its such a lonely word

The 2008 Election on November 8 is to be fought on "honesty" and "trust" according to the official election day announcement made by the Prime Minister Helen Clark at 12.50 pm today.

Considering Ms Clark has had multiple issues with trust and honesty over her 9 year old governments tenure it seems to be a bizarre way for her to fight an election when she doesn't have a strong honesty platform from which to pitch her message to Kiwi voters.

Clark has lied over introducing new taxes, speeding in a ministerial car, signing a name to a painting she didn't paint, introducing an anti smacking bill, and a myriad of other promises made pre-elections such as "having an open and honest government", "closing the gaps" and returning New Zealand to the top half of the OECD.

Secret agendas also stretch the credibility slingshot to breaking point; removing the Privy Council, The Electoral Finance Act, increasing welfare to record levels via Working for Families, massive carbon taxes and a whole host of other policies not canvassed before elections, fully discussed before implementation and rushed through Parliament under urgency.

The biggest threat to Helen Clark's honesty and trust quotient though is her lie over what she knew, when she knew it, and what her involvement was in the Owen Glenn/Winston Peters donation scandal.

She withheld information about when she knew about the donation, then we found out she lied about that because she actually knew years earlier.

Truth and Helen Clark, like her husband, are strange bedfellows-to use truth and Helen Clark in the same sentence is the oxymoronic understatement of the year. 

New Zealand definitely needs a truthful Prime Minister but sadly Helen Clark is missing in Mt Albert somewhere when it comes to telling the truth.

Related Political Animal reading

Political Animal scoops Helen Clark on Election Announcement

Related Links

Clark announces election date

Reaction to election date announcement 

Nats promise to focus on future as election date announced

Election on November 8 - what the people think 

c Political Animal 2008

Warehouse sale could hinge on Extra decision

Today's announcement of profit (1MB PDF)at the big red sheds at The Warehouse Group [WHS] today had two significant pieces of information.

One, a good profit result-considering how other retailers like Briscoes Group [BGR] have fared recently- of $NZ90.769 million to full year July 27 2008 versus $114.834 million in 2007, a decrease of 21.0 % .

Sales were down on 2007 1.5% to $1.735 billion.

As I wrote in a column on Thursday, The Warehouse will do well in the long-term and today's announcement shows that in an extremely tough retailing environment the company has done better than most and weathered the recession well, so far anyway.

The second significant tidbit was the results of the trial of the 3 "extra" format stores:

"In relation to Warehouse Extra we have put considerable resource into refining the model and improving execution in both store operations and supply chain", Mr Morrice says. "As a result we have seen a measurable increase in customer acceptance and improved financial performance across our three Extra stores. Disappointingly however, the sales halo benefits that emerged in the first half did not maintain their momentum and have annualised well short of our expectations".

Mr Morrice said that the Extra strategy was under review. A decision regarding the future of the strategy would be made before the end of October.

Ian Morris, CEO

I'm very surprised that kiwis haven't embraced the giant "one stop" store format that has made Walmart so successful, however it appears that this style of shopping just wont fly here, or the company have the model wrong. This puts the decision made in the Appeal Court earlier this year, in The Commerce Commissions favour against Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia buying The Warehouse, in jeopardy when it goes before The Supreme Court, probably sometime in 2009.

The Commission's case was apparently won on the basis of "potential competition" in the grocery market that the extra format stores "might provide in the future" and therefore a possible buyout of the company was nixed.

A decision to cut the format loose by The Warehouse in October would clearly remove that "potential competition" stumbling block from a Woolworths appeal to the Supreme Court and clear the way for a gobble up of the big red Kiwi retailing icon.

Short term investors should place their bets soon while the share price is low and long term investors should be hoping that there is a bidding war between the two possible suitors so their pockets are sufficiently full come bargaining time.

Either way the October decision will be eagerly awaited.

Disclosure: I own WHS shares

The Warehouse @ Share Investor

The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Related Links

Warehouse results




Audited Results for the financial year ended 27 July 2008.pdf (1MB)
Warehouse Corporate profile
2008 Interim Report
Shareinvestorforum.com -Discuss this company


Related Amazon reading


Harvard Business Review on Retailing and Merchandising (Harvard Business Review Paperback) by Hbsp
Buy new: $14.96 / Used from: $14.74
Usually ships in 24 hours



c Share Investor 2008