Michael Hill Jeweller's profit sparkles

In what will probably be one of this reporting seasons pleasant surprises, Micheal Hill International(MHI), today announced profit guidance of around $NZ 20 million approx for the last half year. A stellar performance given the 2007 full year result was slightly over $ 20 million.

It will be a record profit for the company.

The full press release, courtesy of the NZX, from the company is as follows:


MHI
05/02/2008
HALFYR

REL: 0835 HRS Michael Hill International Limited

HALFYR: MHI: Michael Hill International - Half year profit guidance

Tuesday 5th February 2008

Michael Hill International Limited - Half Year Profit Guidance

Net profit after tax for the 6 months ended 31 December 2007 is now expected
to be in the range of $19.25m to $20.00m (last year's comparable period
result was $15.331m and the full year result for the 12 months ended 30 June
2007 was $21.017m).

The improvement in profitability was driven principally from "same store"
bottom line growth and from "new store" contributions (15 stores opened in
2006/07 traded for the full 6 months). The company also continued to reap the
benefits from our supply chain initiatives over the previous 2 years.

The company expects to release its full half year result on Friday 22
February 2008.

This announcement is made in accordance with the continuous disclosure
requirements of the NZX.

RM Hill
Chairman
5th February 2008

Clearly the cost savings have helped immeasurably and that can only be good when factored into new stores as they roll out.

The same store sales growth is a good sign but some of that can be explained by the move from the company to go upmarket, their shop floor prices are higher than before.

So this doesn't necessarily extrapolate to more customers but higher margin ones and this is just what management were aiming for.

It will be very interesting to see the detail come Feb 22 when half year results are poured over and direction for the coming year/s are mapped out.



Related Share Investor reading

Michael Hill has defined growth strategy

Disclosure: I own MHI shares


C Share Investor 2008

Having a multiple Muslim

A news report today on Muslim men in Britain officially getting benefits for multiple wives has got me more than a little hot under the headdress.

Apart for the immorality of collecting money for doing nothing and the small fact that it is indeed illegal to be married to more than one person seems to have escaped the reasoning of the radical left in power in the mother country.

The muslimization of Europe continues apace.

While listening to this account on the Leighton Smith talkback show(Listen to Leighton Smith Live(Weekdays 8.30am-Midday NZ Time) ) today there was also a caller that recounted the case of a wonderful recently arrived Muslim individual who just happened to have two wives, in two state houses, side by side and receiving the largess of the taxpayer twice for two benefits for his small harem.

She didn't say where these individuals lived but it is more than likely going to be in a place like Mt Roskill, the centre of the universe when it comes to all the waifs and strays that nobody else in the world will have but us poor saps.

It is also more than likely that the fine taxpayer funded Harem discussed above is not the only example of this gross stupidity.

I myself am aware of such a "family" living in the state house area in the suburb of Northcote, on Auckland's North Shore.

Would another faith be given this sort of leeway to break our laws in the name of cultural diversity?

I think not, be best it not be critiqued should the Mullahs get angry. We are all well aware the lengths they will go to to show their disapproval of our intolerance to their cultural practices.

Couple this with statistics out today about the number of kiwi born people leaving for the more golden shores and you can see the obvious problems we are going to face.

I'm not anti immigration, we need lots more people with skills and jobs, and who fit in with the lifestyle, to come from nations all around the world but we also need to keep the good kiwis here.

You don't do that by importing riff raff to take their place.

John Key commented that Labour had clearly lost support because people were voting with their feet, while Helen Clark was quite nonchalant about the record losses of New Zealanders leaving because, "The population grew by about 3 per cent in the first five of six years of this century and that was done by net migration".

She should be concerned about those of us leaving, and thinking of leaving, if we all go mad at the end of the year and vote her back in, but the reason for her casual attitude is the simple fact that those, like the aforementioned multiple wive crews, that enter the country, are more likely to vote Labour and conversely those who are leaving would have voted for an opposition party.

Who needs Kiwis when you have "cultural diversity" though !

Related Political Animal reading

Waiting for the backlash
Jihad and understanding
Labour's socialist peril


c Political Animal 2008

New Zealand Stockmarket bull run: 2011

In a favourite movie of mine from 1987, Wall Street, staring Micheal Douglas as "Gordon Gekko" and Charlie Sheen as "Bud Fox", Gekko has a line in the film that goes something like, "money never sleeps", but you would have to add a rider to that, "except on the New Zealand stockmarket".

Gordon Gekko in Wall Street.

I am being a little bit mean because investors on the NZX have done well over recent years but while most overseas stockmarkets surpassed the giddy heights they reached in the 1980s and recovered after the 87 "crash" our market hasn't even got close to those halcyon days.

Well, apparently there is talk of resurrecting Gordo in a sequel to Wall Street and I believe while many foreign viewers may see the sequel with some sort of nostalgia most kiwis from around their mid 40s upwards will see will see the movie as some sort of horror flick, reminding them of past failure and lost fortunes.

I am constantly hearing from people in this age group when I broach the subject of investing, tell me that the stockmarket is "like a casino" "too risky" and full of criminals and charlatans. Well they maybe partly right on the last count but the sharemarket is a totally different story today.

Companies are largely valued on profit, prospects and management and those terms were mostly not applied to investing during the reign of the Gekkos in the 1980s.

I am 42 and wasn't invested in the sharemarket back then and my only real memory of it was talk around the Wall Street movie and the economy softening and that is where today's piece finally gets to its point.

Sorry about the verbal diarrhea!

While talking with my elders and, ask them what they do with their money(ironically those that lost money in '87 also seemed to have done their dough in finance company collapses, I see a pattern forming here) inevitably evokes the woes they faced with the sharemarket in 1987, I believe that this bogey is going to be laid to rest, given time.

People my own age are investing in companies listed on the NZX and those younger than I are doing similar. Those that were born the year Wall Street came out will only have knowledge of the market collapse from the same year in books or if they are interested specifically in the subject, so I believe the New Zealand stockmarket is in for an exceptionally good run when these younger investors come of age and start investing in the sharemarket as they hit their late 20s, early 30s.

The bull run could come even earlier should those of my own age stop listening to their parents advice and stop pouring dead money in home ownership.

Much of New Zealand's housing "boom" over the last 20 years has been fueled by those risk adverse baby boomers who got their wallets suctioned when they "invested" in companies back in the 1980s that didn't actually make any money, and we can still hear the collective moan from many of them today.

Like investing has always been, there is risk, but that risk is tempered by proper research into what you are buying and quite frankly those that invested in the "paper companies" around in the 1980s shouldn't blame the stockmarket. They should blame their own stupidity, greed, lack of research and understanding of what it is they were buying.

Those that remember Wall Street will also remember and maybe ponder its most famous monologue, when Gekko proclaims:

The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that: Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right; greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms, greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge — has marked the upward surge of mankind and greed, you mark my words — will not only save Teldar Paper but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.

While there is nothing wrong with a little greed in our lives, those that harbour animosity to this day, to the Gordon Geckos that may have cost them a fortune, would do well to remember it was their own unbridled greed that led them along the path to financial disaster.

Just let it go and start investing in the stockmarket again and save us the lectures about '87.


Related Share Investor reading

"Intelligent Investor" Book review
Financial 101: Learn before you leap
Greed is bad: Geneva Finance folds
It was 20 years ago tomorrow
What happened to risk?
Research, research, research


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c Share Investor 2008

Reporting season a true indicator of company value

The New Zealand reporting season kicks off this month and regardless of the sub prime fallout and all its associated negative connotations, financial results and future indication of direction are still the main indication of company health and its possible day to day market value.


Mainfreight will face margin pressures in New Zealand
but is likely to get increased business from their global
divisions.


The subprime fallout was expected to vary widely on Kiwi companies. Of our top 30 stocks reporting, 10 were indicative of their respective fields: Auckland International Airport(AIA), Briscoes(BGR), Telecom(TEL), Freightways(FRE), Fletcher Building(FBU), Goodman Fielder(GFF), Contact Energy(CEN), Tourism Holdings(THL), PGG Wrightson(PGG) and The Warehouse(WHS).

Many of the above will be conservative in their indications for profit in the coming year.

Many companies have already indicated profit warnings, Hallensteins Glassons(HLG) and Postie Plus(PPG) have come to the table, while many companies have indicated flat earnings, The Warehouse, Telecom, Contact Energy, Sky City Entertainment(SKC), Pumpkin Patch(PPL) and Freightways have all indicated pressure on margins over the past year.

The pressure has come mainly from government intervention. Increased labour costs through a higher minimum wage, 1 week extra holiday and paid maternity leave have all pressured businesses and margins. Clearly those companies with very high staff numbers will be affected by this, retailers especially.

In addition to the above, more Government associated paperwork for administration staff has lead to lower productivity.

More Government pressure from reckless spending has led to higher interest rates, for consumers and lending for business, and the increases in energy costs, due to Government dictated taxes on petrol and electricity have made 2007 a bad year and are due to get considerably worse in 2008.

There maybe some surprises on the upside during the current reporting season.

Mainfrieght(MFT) looks like a good bet to increase profit and Restaurant Brands(RBD), the often talked about whipping boy here should show an increase from a very low comparison this time last year.

Fletcher Building’s half-year after-tax result was forecast by ABN to increase 13.5% from $NZ193m last year to $219m this year and their order book for future work is still going to be over NZ$ 1 billion.

This reporting season seems like a turning point for investors to me.

They must make up their minds whether they want to hold their investments during a coming hard year or run crying for the hills with their share proceeds in their hands.

Fortune will favour those who hang on to good companies and if you are buying shares for the first time or adding to your portfolio, look for good management first before anything else, for it is good managers with a track record that will be able to ride out the inevitable tough times.

I'm ready to face the coming months, good or bad, and reporting season is definitely an exciting time for this investor.


Related Share Investor Reading

Learn before you leap
A rare breed
Business gobbledegook

Disclosure: I own SKC, MFT, AIA, GFF,PLL,PPG,FRE,FBU and WHS shares

C Share Investor 2008