STUFF: Fairfax poll & Political Animal commentary

The latest fairfax political poll continues the trend from last year where National started to show a wide gap. This gap has not only continued but has got wider as time goes on.

It is clear to voters, Labour or National, that voters want their money back, in the form of personal tax cuts. Not State sanctioned welfare like working for families or one off dollops from those that earn the money to those that haven't. They simply want their own cash back in the hand on a weekly basis, without state apron strings involved or mixed up in loony taxpayer subsidised "savings" schemes like Kiwi saver.

The billion dollar plus price tag for a train set and not dividends in their pockets, seems to be yet another motivator for long suffering middleclass taxpayers to get on track to get back what they deserve.

Their own moola!


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Stuff poll and commentary

National is on track for a landslide election win with a 27-point poll lead over Labour.

On today's Fairfax Media poll, Labour faces an election night rout that would oust 14 sitting MPs and deliver National a 13-seat majority.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen is now under huge pressure to deliver an election-winning Budget next week or face the backlash from voters seeking relief from rising pressure on household budgets.

But on today's result, voters have already written Labour off and it may take more than the modest tax cuts signaled by Dr Cullen to turn that around.

The Nielsen poll for Fairfax newspapers suggests that not just the size but the timing of any tax cuts could be critical, with voters saying they want relief now, even if that puts pressure on interest rates.

Just over half of those questioned - 51 per cent - don't want to wait for tax cuts, even if that means interest and mortgage rates stay higher for longer.

It suggests that Dr Cullen's argument that early and sizeable tax cuts will only push up interest rates and delay relief for heavily mortgaged households does not wash with voters.

Kiwibank cut its two-year fixed-term home loan rate to 8.99 per cent yesterday and other banks are expected to follow in anticipation of a cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank.

Today's poll will send panic through Labour ranks. National's lead is a turnaround from polls which had Labour closing the gap - the previous Fairfax poll had National and Labour 18 points apart.

National Party leader John Key said yesterday that voters were sick of Labour.

"They're tired of the fact that they're so out of touch with issues that concern them in their daily life."

National would fight the election on tax cuts, which would be a defining difference between the two parties.

"All the messages that Labour has given off in the last two months is that tax cuts will be relatively small."

Prime Minister Helen Clark, who is in South Korea, could not be contacted for comment.

The poll put the Greens on 6 per cent - safely above the 5 per cent threshold, where they were joined by NZ First on 5 per cent.

That could put NZ First leader Winston Peters back at centre-stage in any post-election deals, though on current numbers National could easily govern alone.

The poll questioned 1091 voters between Wednesday May 7 and Tuesday this week and has a margin of error of 3 per cent.


Discuss Politics
New Zealand Budget






c Political Animal 2008

Herald Poll and Political Animal commentary

c Stan Blanch 2008



While in her own mind and those of her Labour party colleagues, Helen Clark is still the preferred Prime Minister , the all important voters are thinking something else entirely.

This morning on Newstalk ZB Aunt Helen blamed "volatility" in the polls, when talking about the loony Greens support wavering wildly since the Heralds last poll and by implication the idea was that the poll was not to be trusted. She had another go at the paper for its poll accuracy.

This and the polls of the last 10 weeks cannot be ignored by the former high flying minister.

A definite trend has emerged and the outcome looks like a hiding for the Labour party not seen in generations.

Voters could be forgiven for forgetting about party allegiance's and voting for a winning party, National, least they waste their vote on the big loser.

Hitch your train to the wagon Abner, cause its on a non stop trip to Wellington to take out the trash.


Key Joins his party at No 1 position

5:00AM Monday March 03, 2008
By Audrey Young, NZ Herald

John Key (right) has overtaken Helen Clark as New Zealand's preferred Prime Minister.

National leader John Key has overtaken Prime Minister Helen Clark in popularity in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey, and his party has extended its lead over Labour to 18 points.

It is the first time since May last year that Mr Key has been ahead of Helen Clark as preferred prime minister, although his lead is only two points.

National has been ahead of Labour since Mr Key became National leader in December 2006 but apart from a surge in his popularity in May because of his role in the anti-smacking-bill compromise, Helen Clark has convincingly led the preferred prime minister polling. That has reinforced the view that despite poor party polling, she is Labour's strongest asset.

But in the past month, Mr Key and the National Party have both gone up 7 points in the survey.

Mr Key is preferred by 46.3 per cent of decided voters and Helen Clark by 44.3 per cent in the poll, conducted between February 11 and 28.

In January, Helen Clark was ahead of Mr Key by 10.5 points.

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters polled 3.3 per cent. Trade Minister Phil Goff, often tipped as the next Labour leader, scored no support as preferred prime minister.

The gap between the two main parties is so wide and coalition partners so limited for Labour - the Greens are below 5 per cent - that National could easily govern alone if the poll's figures translated to votes.

National is on 54.5 per cent (up 7 points), 18 points ahead of Labour on 36.5 per cent (down 2.2).

In the January survey, the gap between the parties was only 8.8 points.

Gender bias between the two leaders persists - men disproportionately favour Mr Key and women disproportionately support Helen Clark as prime minister.

The poll shows that voters aged over 60 have a strong bias towards National and New Zealand First.

It also shows that New Zealand First supporters have a strong preference for a coalition with National over Labour (90 per cent v 9.1 per cent) and that Maori Party supporters are not overwhelmingly disposed to a Labour deal - 57.1 per cent of Maori Party supporters would favour a deal with Labour, but 42.9 per cent would favour a deal with National.

The poll was conducted after an intense political start to the year in which both leaders made "state of the
nation" speeches and announced policies on youth crime, education and training.

Polling began after both leaders visited Waitangi, where Mr Key's meeting with Tame Iti received top billing, as did Helen Clark's aversion to Te Tii Marae.

Helen Clark hinted at media bias, saying last night through a spokesman: "Obviously the Leader of the Opposition has had a lot of publicity since the beginning of the year." She believed Labour polling was holding up and was reasonably close to the 1999 result - 38.74 per cent - when Labour took office.

"The important issue now is who has the best plan for the future," she said.

Mr Key did not believe he'd had more publicity than Helen Clark at the start of the year "and in fact she got enormous coverage from the [Sir Edmund] Hillary funeral ... not that that was political."

He believed they both received extensive, though contrasting, coverage at Waitangi.

He said he never thought his hongi with Tame Iti would damage him in the eyes of the voting public.

"I thought the mood of the nation has moved on and they started looking at Helen Clark fighting the battle that has been and gone and I think they responded positively to me wanting to engage and make a day of national celebration rather than harbouring some sort of historic dispute."

Support for the Greens is showing some volatility, falling to 4.4 per cent from 9.1 in the previous poll and 3.5 in the one before that.

New Zealand First is down 0.7 points on 2.1 per cent.

Falling below the 5 per cent threshold means neither party would win seats in Parliament unless they won an electorate.

Mr Peters has not yet confirmed that he will try to regain his former Tauranga seat, won last election by National's Bob Clarkson.

The Maori Party polled 1.5 per cent (up 0.5), United Future 0.4 (up 0.4), Act 0.4 (down 0.3) and the Progressives were unchanged on zero.

Tax cuts remain the issue most likely to influence votes, 20.7 per cent of those polled listing it top.

* The poll was of 734 respondents, and results presented are from decided voters only. The margin of error is 3.6 per cent.

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Colmar Brunton Poll and comment

c Political Animal 2008

Poll and Comment: Labour's teflon in tatters

The latest Nielson Fairfax political poll shows that Aunty Helen and her mates continue to slip further behind. It reflects an earlier Colmar Brunton poll that came out on Monday and continues an ongoing slide for the Godmother of the nation.

The downwards trend for the Labour Party and supporting political players rolls on. It seems since the last poll 3 months ago their stance on the Electoral Finance Act. An act that stifles free speech against the government and stamps on political funding to opposition, and their hypocritical stance over secret loans made to the party during the recent Owen Glenn scandal, that run contrary to their moralistic masturbation over the EFA, have really taken their toll.

c Moreu 2008, from Stuff , " The Loan Arranger"

The possible inclusion of a referendum to coincide with the 2008 election, will be a further reminder to voters about the other restraints of New Zealander's freedoms that these mad socialists have foisted on us over the past 9 long years.


Related Political Animal reading

Colmar Brunton Poll and comment
Labour Party election funding murky at best
Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear
Owen Glenn given the cold shoulder
Snouts in the trough bent out of shape
The Owen Glenn story: Singing the same tune but hitting a bum note

c Political Animal 2008

National opens up 23 point lead - poll

9:05AM Saturday February 23, 2008, NZPA

National has opened up its biggest lead over Labour, the latest poll showing it 23 points ahead with 55 per cent support.

The Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll of 1088 voters showed National gaining 10 points on the same poll last November, while Labour lost 8 points.

Labour's problems don't stop there; support for Prime Minister Helen Clark has dropped to 29 per cent, down 9 points in three months, while National leader John Key is 15 points ahead on 44 per cent, up 8 points.

The Greens 6 per cent support meant it was the only minor party to hit the 5 per cent needed under MMP to qualify for seats without an electorate.

New Zealand First had 3 per cent, the Maori Party 2 per cent and ACT 1 per cent. United Future and the Progressives both failed to rate.

If the poll was reflected in an election-night result, National would govern alone with 69 seats.

The poll, taken between February 13 and 19, had a margin of error of 3 per cent

- NZPA