Friday, January 30, 2009

US SENATE COMMITTEE: James Hansen’s Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic - Says Hansen "Embarrassed NASA"

A piece written on US Senate committee of Environment and public works website about the NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA retired atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon.


Unlike most of the nonsense written about that supports the Global Warming religion, this piece has once again slipped past the moronic mainstream media hacks who lap up Gore and his disciples.

It is rather long but well worth the read.


Says Hansen ‘Embarrassed NASA’ & ‘Was Never Muzzled’ 

Gore Faces More Scientific Blowback  

Also See: Gore’s Inconvenient Astronaut: NASA Moonwalker Defies Gore's Claim That Skeptics Are Akin To Those Who Believe Moon Landing was 'Staged'   

[ See: Senator Inhofe’s YouTube Clip on Hansen’s former supervisor: ]

 

Washington DC: NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.

 

Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fears soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.”  Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of anthropogenic global warming fears. [See: U.S. Senate Minority Report Update: More Than 650 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims & See Prominent Scientist Fired By Gore Says Warming Alarm ‘Mistaken’  &  Gore laments global warming efforts: 'I've failed badly' - Washington Post – November 11, 2008  ]

 

 

 

“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man-made,” Theon wrote to the Minority Office at the Environment and Public Works Committee on January 15, 2009. “I was, in effect, Hansen's supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation,Theon, the former Chief of the Climate Processes Research Program at NASA Headquarters and former Chief of the Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch explained. [Note: Here are the results a Google Scholar search on Theon. - Theon's complete written correspondence to EPW reprinted at the end of this report. ]

 

 

“Hansen was never muzzled even though he violated NASA's official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it). Hansen thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress,” Theon wrote.  [Note: NASA scientist James Hansen who runs NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) has created worldwide media frenzy with his dire climate warnings, his call for trials against those who dissent against man-made global warming fear, and his claims that he was allegedly muzzled by the Bush administration despite doing 1,400 on-the-job media interviews - See: Don’t Panic Over Predictions of Climate Doom - Get the Facts on James Hansen  & UK Guardian: NASA scientist calls for putting oil firm chiefs on trial for 'high crimes against humanity' for spreading doubt about man-made global warming – June 23, 2008 &  NYT's Revkin chides Hansen for promoting sea level claims that are at upper boundary of what is 'even physically possible' (Note: Headline re: Revkin and Hansen corrected) ]

 

Theon declared “climate models are useless.” “My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit,” Theon explained. “Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy,” he added.

 

“As Chief of several of NASA Headquarters’ programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the  research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research,” Theon wrote of his career. “This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles,” Theon added. (LINK) Theon also co-authored the book Advances in Remote Sensing Retrieval Methods.

 

Hansen 'is a political activist who spreads fear'

 

Award-winning NASA Astronaut and Physicist Walter Cunningham of NASA’s Apollo 7 also recently chastised Hansen. “Hansen is a political activist who spreads fear even when NASA’s own data contradict him,” Cunningham wrote in an essay in the July/August 2008 issue of Launch Magazine. “NASA should be at the forefront in the collection of scientific evidence and debunking the current hysteria over human-caused, or Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW). Unfortunately, it is becoming just another agency caught up in the politics of global warming, or worse, politicized science,” Cunningham wrote.

 

[Note: Theon joins many current and former NASA scientists in dissenting from man-made climate fears. A small sampling includes: Aerospace engineer and physicist Dr. Michael Griffin, the former  top administrator of NASA, Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology and is formerly of NASA, Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut, Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack Schmitt, Chemist and Nuclear Engineer Robert DeFayette was formerly with NASA’s Plum Brook Reactor, Hungarian Ferenc Miskolczi, an atmospheric physicist with 30 years of experience and a former researcher with NASA's Ames Research Center, Climatologist Dr. John Christy, Climatologist Dr. Roy W. Spencer, Atmospheric Scientist Ross Hays of NASA's Columbia Scientific Balloon Facility]

 

 Gore faces a much different scientific climate in 2009 than the one he faced in 2006 when his film An Inconvenient Truth was released. According to satellite data, the Earth has cooled since Gore’s film was released,  Antarctic sea ice extent has grown to record levels, sea level rise has slowed, ocean temperatures have failed to warm, and more and more scientists have publicly declared their dissent from man-made climate fears as peer-reviewed studies continue to man-made counter warming fears. [See: Peer-Reviewed Study challenges 'notion that human emissions are responsible for global warming' & New Peer-Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global Warming Fears ]

“Vice President Gore's and the other promoters of man-made climate fears' endless claims that the 'debate is over' appear to be ignoring scientific reality,” Senator James Inhofe, Ranking Member of the Environment & Public Works Committee.

A U.S. Senate Minority Report released in December 2008 details over 650 international scientists who are dissenting from man-made global warming fears promoted by the UN. Many of the scientists profiled are former UN IPCC scientists and former believers in man-made climate change that have reversed their views in recent years. The report continues to grow almost daily. We have just received a request from an Italian scientist, and a Czech scientist to join the 650 dissenting scientists report. A chemist from the U.S. Naval Academy is about to be added, and more Japanese scientists are dissenting. Finally, many more meteorologists will be added and another former UN IPCC scientist is about to be included. These scientists are openly rebelling against the climate orthodoxy promoted by Gore and the UN IPCC.

The prestigious International Geological Congress, dubbed the geologists' equivalent of the Olympic Games, was held in Norway in August 2008 and prominently featured the voices of scientists skeptical of man-made global warming fears. Reports from the conference found that Skeptical scientists overwhelmed the meeting, with  '2/3 of presenters and question-askers hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC' ( See full reports here & here ]  In addition, a 2008 canvass of more than 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68% disagree that global warming science is “settled.”   A November 25, 2008, article in Politico noted that a “growing accumulation” of science is challenging warming fears, and added that the “science behind global warming may still be too shaky to warrant cap-and-trade legislation.”  More evidence that the global warming fear machine is breaking down. Russian scientists “rejected the very idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming”. An American Physical Society editor conceded that a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exists.  An International team of scientists countered the UN IPCC, declaring: “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate”.  India Issued a report challenging global warming fears.  International Scientists demanded the UN IPCC “be called to account and cease its deceptive practices.”  

The scientists and peer-reviewed studies countering climate claims are the key reason that the U.S. public has grown ever more skeptical of man-made climate doom predictions. [See: Global warming ranks dead last, 20 out of 20 in new Pew survey. Pew Survey  & Survey finds majority of U.S. Voters - '51% — now believe that humans are not the predominant cause of climate change' - January 20, 2009 - Rasmussen Reports ]  

 

 The chorus of skeptical scientific voices grow louder in 2008 as a steady stream of peer-reviewed studies, analyses, real world data and inconvenient developments challenged the UN’s and former Vice President Al Gore's claims that the "science is settled" and there is a "consensus."

On a range of issues, 2008 proved to be challenging for the promoters of man-made climate fears.  Promoters of anthropogenic warming fears endured the following: Global temperatures failing to warm; Peer-reviewed studies predicting a continued lack of warminga failed attempt to revive the discredited “Hockey Stick”; inconvenient developments and studies regarding rising CO2; the Spotless Sun; Clouds; Antarctica; the Arctic; Greenland’s ice; Mount Kilimanjaro; Global sea ice; Causes of Hurricanes; Extreme Storms; Extinctions; Floods; Droughts; Ocean Acidification; Polar Bears; Extreme weather deaths; Frogs; lack of atmospheric dust; Malaria; the failure of oceans to warm and rise as predicted.    

Theon’s complete written correspondence to EPW reprinted below:  

-----Original Message-----
From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXXX]
Sent: Thursday, January 15, 2009 10:05 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)

Subject: Climate models are useless 

Marc, First, I sent several e-mails to you with an error in the address and they have been returned to me. So I'm resending them in one combined e-mail. 

Yes, one could say that I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation. He was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind's effect on it). He thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress. 

My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit. Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy. 

With best wishes, John 

# #  

From: Jtheon [mailto:jtheon@XXXXXX]
Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2009 12:50 PM
To: Morano, Marc (EPW)

Subject: Re: Nice seeing you

Marc, Indeed, it was a pleasure to see you again. I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that Global Warming is man made.  A brief bio follows. Use as much or as little of it as you wish. 

John S. Theon Education: B.S. Aero. Engr. (1953-57); Aerodynamicist, Douglas Aircraft Co. (1957-58); As USAF Reserve Officer (1958-60),B.S. Meteorology (1959); Served as Weather Officer 1959-60; M.S, Meteorology (1960-62); NASA Research Scientist, Goddard Space Flight Ctr. (1962-74); Head Meteorology Branch, GSFC (1974-76); Asst. Chief, Lab. for Atmos. Sciences, GSFC (1977-78);  Program Scientist, NASA Global Weather Research Program, NASA Hq. (1978-82); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch NASA Hq., (1982-91); Ph.D.,  Engr. Science & Mech.: course of study and dissertation in atmos. science (1983-85); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics, Radiation, & Hydrology Branch, NASA Hq. (1991-93); Chief, Climate Processes Research Program, NASA Hq. (1993-94); Senior Scientist, Mission to Planet Earth Office, NASA Hq. (1994-95); Science Consultant, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (1995-99); Science Consultant  Orbital Sciences Corp. (1996-97) and NASA Jet Propulsion Lab., (1997-99).      

As Chief of several NASA Hq. Programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the  research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research. This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate  science since retiring by reading books and journal articles. I hope that this is helpful.   

Best wishes, John   

# # #   

Global Warming and Other Eco Myths: How the Environmental Movement Uses False Science to Scare Us to DeathGlobal Warming and Other Eco Myths: How the Environmental Movement Uses False Science to Scare Us to Death byCompetitive Enterprise Institute 
Buy used from: $8.69
The Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global WarmingThe Myth of the Oil Crisis: Overcoming the Challenges of Depletion, Geopolitics, and Global Warming by Robin M. Mills 
Buy new: $24.95 / Used from: $20.99
Usually ships in 24 hours

   

c Political Animal 2009

Time to ditch tunnel now that Aunt Helen is gone

So the last piece of roading-the Waterview connection and interchange- in the jigsaw puzzle that is the Auckland Motorway system has been stalled because of cost.

Rightly so.

The new National Party have sent back the plans to the drawing board because of the bloated cost foisted on the project by the previous Labour Party Government.

Specifically it is one person -Helen Clark- that has held up the finishing of the motorway for many years and now that she is gone the final impediment to it has fallen.

The motorway runs through Mt Albert where she is the MP.

You see building a tunnel is not the only option for the small stretch of road which is just under 4km, projected to cost almost NZ$3 billion and not future proofed because it is only 4 lanes wide in total.

A 6 lane option that cuts through the suburbs, as it does across all the other working-class suburbs before it gets to the rather posh(in places) Mt Albert would be far cheaper and more future proofed for expansion.

Lets hope Transport Minister Steven Joyce does the right thing and recommends a lovely ribbon of tarmac right past (preferably through)Helen's house.

If it is good enough for Phil Goff's Mt Roskll it is good enough for the toffs in Mt Albert.

Lets get building!


Related Amazon Reading

Public-Private Policy PartnershipsPublic-Private Policy Partnerships by Pauline Marie Rosenau 
Buy new: $25.00 / Used from: $18.50
Usually ships in 24 hours



c Political Animal 2009

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Will the speed of 2008 crash be met with a speedy recovery?

I was reading this article yesterday about Citibank, by Alice Schroeder, the author of the latest Warren Buffett biography, The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life, and it got me thinking about the break neck speed in which the crash of the credit market led to a plunge in global stockmarkets, a collapse of the banking system in the US, Europe and other countries and then a massive banking rescue package-that didn't achieve its purpose, a global recession and then more recently a huge "stimulus" package pushed by Obama's democrats.

To be sure, you could see a "market correction" coming from a few years ago but the sheer pace of the economic structural collapse over the last 4 months or so has taken many peoples breath away and there will be more financial heartbreak to come.

The piece in Schroeder's article that really got my wheels turning was her retelling of a story about a man who wanted to withdraw $50,000.00 in cash from his local Citibank one Saturday morning, in November 2008. The fuss and flap that this caused the teller and the bank manager and then the queue of people in the bank paying closer attention as voices started getting raised because this chap was getting the run around.

“I want my fifty thousand dollars,” the man said to the teller. The subtlest nerve-twitch crossed her face, but she kept her gaze steady. "I'll have to call my manager," she said. Anyone who has seen "It’s a Wonderful Life" knows: That’s the wrong answer. “I want my money,” said the customer, in a voice audible throughout the lobby. “I don’t want your check!” Tiny gasps from the line. Somebody had said it aloud – Citi’s check might bounce...

It was a run on the bank!

On the Sunday the Treasury Department pulled a rescue plan out of the hat that stopped the run on banks when they opened Monday, that would have been reminiscent of the 1930s.

The world knew about the run the following day.

When we compare the 1929 crash to 2008, the speed of the 1929 one took longer to play out than the current one and it spread quicker around the globe because of global communications and media saturation.

The consequences of the collapse though will play out over years, and in that respect 1929 is no different to 2008.

This got me thinking even more.

If the speed of the collapse and reaction to it is so much quicker than previous financial calamities, then perhaps the recovery will come much quicker than the 20 or so years it took American to dig its way out of the 1929 crash?

To be sure, the stimulus of WW2 was the principle catalyst for America's 1950's recovery but governments around the world are busy getting their own stimulus packages together and while I don't have complete faith in Government its gotta have some positive stimulus, right?

A silver lining in every cloud and all that sort of baloney.

Don't get me wrong, I haven't turned into a Pollyanna-ish angel with blinkered eyes and my head up my lowest orifice. The recovery will be hard, it will take time and we are all going to have to save instead of spend for the next generation, and hopefully beyond, to get ourselves out of the bog.

The debt incurred for taxpayers worldwide via the massive corporate bailouts is going to be a rather big millstone.

The recovery of the global economy however maybe sooner than we think.

Fingers crossed.


Recent Share Investor Reading

When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
The "New" Money Managers Vehicle still tainted by its past
MarketWatch: Contact Energy

Related Amazon Reading


Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles
Recessions and Depressions: Understanding Business Cycles by Todd A. Knoop
Buy new: $44.00 / Used from: $39.50
Usually ships in 24 hours


The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life
The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life by Alice Schroeder
Buy new from $23.10 @ Amazon.com


c Share Investor 2009

Monday, January 26, 2009

When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?

The length of time that has passed between The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] deciding to drop their "Extra" format stores-the impediment that the Commerce Commission most recently successfully argued in the Court of Appeal was the reason the company couldn't be sold to its two current suitors-doesn't look encouraging for any positive outcome anytime soon.

Just when are they going to make a move?

In January, The Australian reported that both The Warehouse' suitors were "still considering" a purchase of the company .

There are a few reasons why Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] The Warehouse' two suitors, might be delaying or reconsidering a move.

1. the current uncertain economic climate might make a bid less attractive. I would argue that any bidder might be able to turn this to their advantage though by being able to bid lower.

2. capital maybe harder to obtain in order to make a bid.

3. both suitors could be waiting for a decision in the Supreme Court where Woolworths has sought leave to apply to have the Appeal Court decision quashed

4. Waiting for a response from the Commerce Commission to The Warehouse decision to dump their "extra" format stores.

5. A new proposal from founder and majority shareholder Stephen Tindall to take the business private.

The biggest impediment to a quicker sale process is The Commerce Commission's Paula Rebstock and her failure to make a ruling post the Warehouse ditching their Extra format stores in October 2008.

The Extra format stores were the main impediment, from the Commission's point of view, for denying the sale of The Warehouse and now that they have gone a positive announcement in The Warehouse favour on this matter would let the bidding process begin.


Disclosure: I own WHS shares



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data


Related Amazon reading


The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy

The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy by Charles Fishman
Buy new: $10.20 / Used from: $8.50
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2009