Monday, February 18, 2008

Poll cements National Party as Election winner

http://www.dontvotelabourcartoons.com/gallery/cartoon2.jpg
c Stan Blanch 2007

It looks like the momentum has gained traction and polls taken before Christmas have continued to show John Key the most preferred Prime Minister, should an election be held today.

The fact that Clark continue to slip behind as leader to a 27% Prime Ministerial approval rating means she is less favoured than the likes of the great George Bush as the leader of the country.

Previously Clark has had a historically very high ranking in the polls as most preferred leader.

Vote in our new Political Animal poll on the left of this blog, not far from the top. You must tick two boxes, one for your constituency and one for the party vote.


C Political Animal 2008


The full story of the latest poll, courtesy of the NZPA is below:

The TV One Colmar Brunton poll showed National on 53 percent support, down one point since its last poll in December, and Labour also down one point to 34 percent.

The gap between the main parties was 19 points - the same as it was in December.

National's leader, John Key, increased his lead over Helen Clark in the preferred prime minister stakes.

Mr Key gained one point to 36 percent while Miss Clark slipped from 30 percent to 27 percent.

Tonight's poll showed the Greens up from 4.6 percent to 6 percent, putting them safely over the 5 percent threshold the party must achieve in the next election to stay in Parliament.

New Zealand First was down from 2.2 percent to 1.7 percent while the Maori Party was up from 1.7 percent to 3.3 percent.

The Colmar Brunton poll usually rates National higher than other surveys.

On January 26 a New Zealand Herald DigiPoll put National on 47.5 percent and Labour on 38.7, a gap of 8.8 points.

On February 11 a New Zealand Morgan poll showed National slipping 6.5 points to 45.5 percent and Labour gaining three points to reach 36.5 percent, a gap of nine points.

Tonight's poll showed a small drop in the number of people who thought the economic outlook was getting better - 28 percent compared with 31 percent in December.

The poll was conducted between February 9 and 14. It questioned 1000 voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

- NZPA

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Labour Party election funding murky at best

http://www.dontvotelabourcartoons.com/gallery/cartoon4.jpg
c Stan Blanch 2008


The stench surrounding the funding of the Labour Party by ex pat Kiwi Owen Glenn prior to the 2005 election just gets more pungent and darkly ominous, as the weeks and months pass.

Glenn gave NZ$500,000.00 to Labour Party coffers to bolster their empty pockets in the run up the the 2005 stolen election(Labour took over $800,000.00 of taxpayer money to illegally fund their campaign) nothing wrong with that, big money shouldn't be a problem to fund an election run.

It seems though that there is more than meets the eye to this generous individuals gift.

If the bestowing for Glenn, of a New Years honour this year wasn't enough, it seems that the layers of the onion that are the gift to the Labour Party appear to be peeling off to reveal a bit of a rotten core.

It certainly isn't the gift that keeps on giving.

Glenn has revealed that he gifted the money to Labour because of concerns that he had over the Brethren spending their own money(not taxpayers dear readers) to campaign against Labour and the Greens.

But curiously, Glenn made his first donation of $200,000 to Labour in 2004, well before the Brethren's involvement in the 2005 election became public knowledge.

A slip of memory on Glenn's part?

According to Labour Party president Mike Williams yes: "Owen is confused about the timing".

Williams seems very confused since he himself admitted in a May 5 2005 story in the New Zealand Herald that Glenn had been paying funds directly into Labour Party coffers beginning in 2004 and to the tune of $200,000.

The biggest possible scandal exists directly with the Prime Minister though.

Glenn has been reported as saying that he was offered the post of Minister of Transport by Helen Clark, in order to get him back to New Zealand.

Clark has denied Glenn's assertion that he was offered a job in the Labour Cabinet saying on Friday, "...it did not happen..."

Now we have all heard the Prime Minister lie before and caught out multiple times, so Fridays denial seems a trifle perplexing given the status Owen Glenn has reached in his business life. Impeccable business acumen, honesty and straightforwardness have been trademarks of his throughout his distinguished life.

Glenn also loaned the party $100,000.00 to employ fund raisers after the 2005 election, it was paid back without interest but the interest forgone seems to have been in breach of the electoral rules.

I'm unsure whether the changing of the appropriate electoral laws by Labour after the 2005 election to make their illegal pilfering of $800,000.00 of taxpayer funds legal has also made this latest reported breach legal retrospectively, but it bares thinking about when you cast a vote this year.

Whichever way you look at this situation it stinks worse than Parakura Horomia's socks on a wet hot day in Wellington.

Labour have passed laws to crack down on other political parties for the 2008 election but it seems they have some skeletons in the closet left over from 2005.

The funding from Labours wealthy foreign domiciled backers during the 2005 election needs to be looked at more closely by the appropriate authorities and the public of this country cant be fobbed off again by the likes of a Prime Minister who wouldn't know the truth if it came up and shook her hand then slapped her in the face with it.

The public have a right to the truth.

Clearly this scrutiny should also be applied to the coming election for if we can be sure of one thing, Labour will try similar ploys again.


Related Political Animal reading

NZ Herald gets nasty over the Electoral Finance Bill
Electoral Finance Bill: Day of Protest
Electoral Finance Bill: The purpose is clear
Mike Moore turns the knife on Electoral Finance Bill


C Political Animal 2008

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Broker downgrades of Pumpkin Patch lack long term vision

Columbia Mall

Pumpkin Patch, a children's wear
company with more than 200 stores
in four countries, will open a
6,095-square- foot store at Columbia Mall,
in Baltimore, in the mall's lower level,
near Lord & Taylor, on March 25.
New collections, designed by an in-house
team, are introduced throughout the season.



Broker downgrades on Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] sent the share price down 9% today, NZ.19c down to a multi year low of $1.97.

Broker ABN Amro has this to say:


... its forecasts for the company's first-half earnings, due out next week, this time by a whopping 19 per cent and down to $NZ12.6 million ($11 million).

Pumpkin Patch's problems centre on the poor prospects for its stores in Britain and the US - the latter no real surprise given the growing likelihood of a recession there. Its many Australian outlets are, by contrast, doing well, thanks to the hot economy, with earnings growth hitting 23 per cent.

However, says the ABN analyst Carolyn Holmes, that won't be enough to offset the declines abroad, which is why she has cut her target price for the NZ-listed shares from $NZ3.13 to $NZ2.53.

It is not clear from analyst Carolyn Holmes how she arrived at her downgrade or the reasons for them but I am going to take an educated stab at it.

Clearly the weak US dollar and stronger Kiwi is affecting repatriated profit back to New Zealand.

Nothing Pumpkin Patch management can do about that and not overly material to the day to day short/medium term running of the company. It is something that could get worse before it gets better.

"...poor prospects for its stores in Britain and the US...", well, I wouldn't go that far, clearly not as good as the long established New Zealand and Australian arms but the bulk of the US stores are trading profitably after a very short time opened and the UK unit has been trading profitably for a couple of years.

When establishing a new retail chain, initial loses are to be expected, due to set up costs and until economy of scale is reached and one would expect those stores that are already operating profitably to pick up margin wise once established for a longer period.

The time frame for analysis of a company by broking houses is notoriously short term and while short term indicators are of definite interest to gauge company health on a half year to 12 month basis, it is the long term prospects for a company that should be the primary interest to an investor. Especially when it is a growth company like Pumpkin Patch.

Directors of Pumpkin Patch commented on their business outlook and strategy when reporting the Full year NZ$27.6 Million 2007 profit last August, down from 28.5 million from 2006:

While interest, store opening costs and local market development costs would continue to have an impact on financial results in the short term the directors and management team were confident current strategies would the best long term financial outcomes...

Something I would concur with.

All listed companies with substantial overseas profit and revenues have been marked down over the last 6 months or so. Two other such notables are Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] and Fisher & Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZX]

Both of these companies are well run and Fisher Health has excellent long term prospects, but their market caps have taken a beating of late.

Pumpkin Patch is currently facing toughish times during a strong growth period but it isn't going to last. How long it will last is hard to say but things are not as bleak as some brokers might have you believe.

ABN Amro and other New Zealand brokers who downgraded Pumpkin Patch today all have shareholdings in the New Zealand Stock exchange and ABN recommended NZX as a "buy" today.

I wonder if they are short on Pumpkin Patch?


Disc
I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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I'm buying
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Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

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Hubbard: A Biography of Allan Hubbard


c Share Investor 20o8

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Fletcher Building raises profit through canny management

Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ] had a profit announcement today that was "inline" with market expectations and given current market uncertainties, the share price was savaged by NZ 28c, down to $8.87 on big volume of over 2.3 million shares.


Chart for Fletcher Building Limited Ordin (FBU.NZ)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y 5y max

Today's FBU chart tells the story after
a positive result out today.



To be fair the proceeding 6 months have been excellent, with a 22% rise in net profit of $235 million and a revenue increase of 19% to just over $3.5 billion. Costs clearly have been contained when you look at those two figures and compare.

Jonathon Ling has done well at his first full year as CEO and the previous head, Ralph Walters, has structured the company in such a way that revenues are diverse and able to push the company forward during economic downturns.

All Fletcher's business units increased profit.

Looking forward, Fletcher Building has over a billion dollars worth of work on backlog in New Zealand and things look positive in the infrastructure arena where governments of both colours look to build more roads and other public works.

The likes of the proposed $2 billion plus tunnel through Helen Clark's electorate of Mt Albert and the Eden Park redevelopment for the 2011 world cup could only be handled by the likes of a company Fletcher's size, so the likelihood of them getting the bulk of those contracts is in their favour.

CEO Jonathon Ling has managed Fletcher
Building well during his first hear. His
challenge now is to try and replicate that
during tougher times.


On the downside though, residential house building is currently facing a slump, while the future for that sector looks bleak in the short to medium term. Fletchers are big residential builders in New Zealand and Australia and supply substantial volumes of building products to other big contractors and small builders alike.

The acquisition last year of American Formica Corp, for close to NZ $1 billion, seems to have folded into the mixture of Fletcher's businesses well but for a slower than expected restructuring of the business and associated costs and a 10% drop in new US housing starts having an affect on laminate sales.

It will be very interesting to see how Formica do if the downturn is as severe and as long as some predict.

In retrospect it wasn't a good time for Fletchers to buy when they did last year. The purchase price and timing of the market would have been such that a lower sticker price would have been the order of the day.

As we know though it is hard to pick markets.

I personally don't think todays announcement warranted the canning the share price took and one would have to say it doesn't bode well for the NZX during this profit season if a company can report a 22% lift in after tax earnings and have "Mr Market" knock more than 3% off company capitalisation.

I give this result a 9.5 out of ten. Good effort, excellent results and great management.


Disclosure:
I own FBU shares


Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

Fletcher House built on hard times
Fletcher Building down tools in the short term
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
A solid foundation for the future
Fletcher's got game


Related Reading

Fletcher Building History - Auckland University

Fletcher Building Financials


Related Amazon Reading

Project Management in Construction (McGraw-Hill Professional Engineering)

Project Management in Construction (McGraw-Hill Professional Engineering) by Sidney M. Levy
Buy new: $71.96 / Used from: $60.71
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2008



The full NZX /Fletcher Building press release:


FBU
13/02/2008
HALFYR

REL: 0900 HRS Fletcher Building Limited

HALFYR: FBU: FBU Half Year Results Announcement

Name of Listed Issuer: Fletcher Building Limited

For Half Year Ended: 31 December 2007


This report has been prepared in a manner which complies with generally
accepted accounting practice and gives a true and fair view of the matters to
which the report relates and is based on unaudited accounts.
The amounts as presented have been prepared in a manner which complies with
New Zealand accounting standards which comply with International Financial
Reporting Standards (IFRS).

CONSOLIDATED OPERATING STATEMENT FOR THE HALF YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2007

Unaudited

Current Half Year NZ$'M; Up/Down %; Previous Corresponding Half Year NZ$'M

Total operating revenue: $3,547m; up 19%; $2,980m.

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE UNUSUAL ITEMS AND TAX: $327m; up 11%; $295m.

Unusual items for separate disclosure: 0; n/a; 0

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE TAX: $327m; up 11%; $295m.

Less tax on operating profit: $83; down 10%; $92m.

OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX BUT BEFORE MINORITY INTERESTS: $244m; up 20%;
$203m.

Less minority interests: $9m; down 10%; $10m.

OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF LISTED ISSUER: $235m;
up 22%; $193m.

Extraordinary items after tax attributable to Members of the Listed Issuer:
0: n/a: 0.

OPERATING SURPLUS (DEFICIT) AND EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO
MEMBERS OF THE LISTED ISSUER: $235m; up 22%; $193m.

Earnings per share: 47.0 cps; up 14%: 41.1 cps

Interim Dividend: 24 cps

Record date: 21 March 2008

Date Payable: 10 April 2008

Tax credits on latest dividend: 100% for New Zealand comprising imputation
credits.

Non New Zealand tax payers can benefit from the partial refund of the New
Zealand tax credits as outlined in the attached press release.

SUMMARY

Directors today announced the group's unaudited interim results for the six
months ended 31 December 2007. Net earnings were $235 million, compared to
$193 million in the previous corresponding period. This is an increase in
earnings per share from 41 cents to 47 cents.

Operating earnings (earnings before interest and tax) and after Formica
restructuring costs of $16 million were $394 million, compared to $340
million in the previous corresponding period. The increased earnings are due
to the Formica acquisition, ongoing operational improvements and some small
acquisitions.

The interim dividend of 24 cents per share is an increase of 2 cents per
share over the previous interim dividend and is the twelfth consecutive
dividend increase by the company. Total shareholder return was negative 4
percent for the half-year, influenced heavily by the uncertainty in equity
markets internationally.

The 22 percent increase in net earnings reflects strong operating
performance, with all divisions recording higher earnings than in the
previous corresponding period. Laminates & Panels' earnings increased on a
like-for-like basis, and also benefited from the acquisition of Formica
Corporation on 2 July 2007.

The Chief Executive Officer, Mr Jonathan Ling, said: "This is a pleasing
performance which reflects the group's ability to deal with variable and
sometimes difficult operating conditions. Across our businesses, commercial
and infrastructure markets are still strong, which is best exemplified in New
Zealand with a construction backlog of over $1 billion. While there is some
weakness in residential markets and provided there is no significant change
in economic conditions, we remain comfortable with our earnings prospects for
this financial year".

Key Points

- Group net earnings up 22 percent to $235 million
- Operating earnings up 16 percent to $394 million
- Cashflow from operations up from $227 million to $245 million
- Earnings per share up from 41 cents to 47 cents
- Interim dividend of 24 cents per share with full New Zealand tax credits -
the 12th consecutive dividend increase
- Acquisition opportunities being evaluated

Contact:
Jonathan Ling Bill Roest
Chief Executive Officer Chief Financial Officer
Phone: +64 9 525 9169 Phone: +64 9 525 9165
Fax: +61 9 525 9032 Fax: +64 9 525 9032