Leaders must come clean over losses to restore trust in credit markets

The current market turmoil seems more a reaction to uncertainty over the scope of the sub prime losses and the attendant credit crunch rather certainty over how bad it really is.

Those with the knowledge over just how much the losses are not telling the general investing public and may I be so bold to suggest that they are not telling our political masters either and if they have then our politicians are not telling all lest they panic the sheep and cause some sort of financial stampede.

To be fair the losses would have to be in the trillions to have material serious effects on financial markets and economies but the uncertainty over losses seems to have done more damage than the realities over an accurate amount.

The uncertainty has dented the all important credit sector of the economy. A sector that relies on trust, full disclosure and the knowledge that with all things known to the lender he can fork over the credit knowing he is more than likely to get his money back.

It is the essence of how business and economies run.

This trust simply doesn’t freely exist anymore and will take a complete clean out of the sub prime losses and then time to restore the much needed trust that this all important part of the business world needs.

Until then, business growth will slow, economies likewise and the mere fact that the trust isn’t there will apply the hand brakes to just about everything that needs credit applied to it. That is most of the worlds’ economy and that is why this “credit crunch” has been talked about so much.

Just a rider to the above though. If losses are in the multi trillions then the psychological trust issue that I have discussed over lending to others will be matched by hard facts that some real money has actually been lost.

The impact of that will be hard to measure but clearly it will be serious.

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c Share Investor 2007

Tuesday 18 December 2007: The death of democracy

If one were the suspicious type one might think that news out yesterday about the Eden Park Stadium was designed to take the Electoral Finance Bill off the front page, not me of course but I have a long memory and can dredge up the fact Trevor "The Bash" Mallard put out the waterfront stadium proposal last year to coincide with news that Labours' Phillip Field was being charged with various serious offences and the Anti smacking bill was on the agenda.

I just wanted to memorilise my disgust today at the passing of the Electoral Finance Bill before we lose our democratic rights.

It is without a doubt the saddest day in our democratic history and when looked back on with more clarity and purpose we will see it as a turning point for the condition our country is in, if Labour gets voted back in again in 2008.

It seems though that voters could be slowly putting up a middle finger to all this but I believe the turn in public opinion as to who they would back if an election was held today, now overwhelmingly National, has more to do with the modus operandi of Labours' Ministers, epitomised by Trevor Mallard's bullying ways and Micheal Cullen's "Scumbag" and "rich prick" comments in Parliament recently.

The public are largely unaware of the importance of the EFB because of Labours' lies about its intention but Kiwis cant stand their arrogant, nasty, vengeful, and Stalinist attitudes and if an election was held today National would govern alone.

Taxpayer money though is being readied to bribe us in 2008 like we have been never been bribed before and you can be sure that Labour would do anything to keep the reigns of power for another 3 years.

Please take a moment today to listen to the debate and also take a moment of silence to lament the death of your democracy.


C Political Animal 2007

What is Auckland International Airport worth to you?

News today that the directors of Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] have advised AIA shareholders to reject the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board offer of NZ$3.66 per share as too low and that the share price doesn't take in to account future growth and potential for the port in this part of the world comes as no surprise.

The independent valuation by Grant Samuels though indicates that the offer price by CPPIB is above their valuation of $3.48 at the high side and recommends to AIA shareholders that the offer is a good one.

AIA management, in the event of the CPPIB bid crashing and burning, will actively seek "a cornerstone holder" with "airport experience" smacks of nepotism to me as one of the largest AIA shareholders with a seat on the board, is Lloyd Morrison, head of Intratil, a majority owner of Wellington Airport, with small airports in Europe and Britain.

It seems that with the certain failure of Morrison's company trying to develop a second Auckland Airport in West Auckland, he now seems intent on getting a foothold in what would have been his competition had his bid for a second port was successful.

So what is the Auckland International Airport worth?

It depends on your investment horizon. Are you invested short or long term?

If you are a short term investor who bought your shares last year for as low as $1.90, then you might be wise to accept the CCPIB offer and lock in an exceptional quick buck.

The inverse long term view of course is that within 5 years the value of a single AIA share is likely to be well in excess of the $3.65 offer from the canny Canadians. They can definitely see a good long term prospect, otherwise they wouldn't now be having a second go at the company.

Lets face it, the company is a near monopoly, with the worlds best profit margins for an airport and also a huge owner of undeveloped land and various other revenue streams or businesses outside its core reason for existence.

It is in effect also a mall operator, with a large retail presence and big foot traffic coming past on a 24 hr 7 day week basis and also operates a large car parking facility as part of the airport.

I am going to vote against the CPPIB offer.

Disclosure: I own AIA shares 

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c Share Investor 2007

Mike Moore turns the knife on Electoral Finance Bill

Mike Moore, former Labour Prime Minister and thorn in Helen Clark's arse takes another swing at the fascists voting for the Electoral Finance Bill.

The NZ Herald has once again given Moore an avenue to vent and once again I congratulate them for their commonsense attack on this Bill. Shame they don't have the same commonsense when it comes to their bizarre support of "climate change". We live in hope!

This bill is set to pass this week after much stalling by the National opposition and will be in force by January 1 2008.

The coming week is the darkest in our democracy's history because it will mean the end of free speech in an election year.

There are no foreign powers making comments at the death of democracy here, nobody seems to care that this sleepy little once free land in the South Pacific is turning into a bright yellow fascist/communist banana.

Will you care next year when you have to keep your mouth shut?

Its too late baby, its gone.

C Political Animal 2007

Moore continues attack on controversial Electoral Finance Bill

11:50AM Sunday December 16, 2007

Mike Moore

Democracy under attack

• Bill Ralston: Utu over, the real work begins
• Campaign could breach electoral bill

Mike Moore has continued his attack on the Electoral Finance Bill.

The former Labour Prime Minister has today labelled the piece of legislation as fatally flawed. He says the restrictions in the electoral finance law, promised by the Government to be passed next week in Parliament, are without precedent in the free world.

Mike Moore says the bill is wrong in principle and in substance and will end up doing the opposite of what its authors expected.

The fresh comments come in response to Invercargill mayor Tim Shadbolt's promise he will continue to run ads against funding cuts at Southern Institute of Technology, even if the bill passes and he is breaking the law.

Mike Moore launched a public attack on Prime Minister Helen Clark earlier this year, comparing her to Robert Muldoon.

C NZ Herald 2007