Friday, September 7, 2007

Share Investor's Friday Free for all: Edition 2

Xmas comes early for Warehouse Shareholders

An announcement today from The Warehouse(WHS) New Zealand's Largest retailer, that they will be paying a large special dividend of $NZ 35c imputed per share along with a 5.5c normal dividend will have shareholders running to the bank.

It seems the proceeds from sale of their Australian unit plus some other property sales sees the company flush with some $109 million in cash and owners are going to benefit. The share price was up 14c on modest volume today possibly reflecting the markets lack of faith in the retailing sector given Bricoes (BGR) 16% fall in profit announced today.

It is a shame more companies don't have good capital management such that The Warehouse is operating. Many would have the 109M burning a hole in their pockets looking for a place to spend it.

Sky City(SKC) Entertainment take note when considering what to do with proceeds from mooted asset sales late in 2007 and early 2008.

Auckland Airport Merger Crashes and Burns

The original Dubai Aerospace, DAE, merger with Auckland International Airport(AIA) took a nosedive this week.

In the face of rampant idealist pressure from leftist councils and Central Government the proposal was dead in the water. It was never a flyer to begin with for manifold reasons, mainly due to the fact that the company was a foreign one.

DAE is rumored to be stitching together another more politically palatable deal and a Canadian pension fund is said to be about to launch a concrete bid soon.

Any deal is going to be almost impossible considering there are politicians with big egos and tiny reproductive parts involved.

My speculation would be if Dick Hubbard from Auckland City Council gets re-elected(god help us!) and Manukau Council continues to lean left after October this year then we could see councils combining to re-purchase the airport. Perhaps not a likely scenario but I think the most likely in the face of other proposals.

Finance Company woes Hound Investors

Two more Finance companies went up in smoke this week, bringing the grand total over the last 16 months to 9 and well over NZ$ 1 Billion at risk of being lost.

Fingers continue to be pointed at everyone but those most to blame. Directors of such companies and those that "invested" in them.

A curious excuse was given by the liquidator of Nelson based LDC Finance for its collapse. It seems said liquidator blamed investors for pulling out funds because of market nervousness over finance company collapses.

He conveniently forgot to mention that the company he was in the process of liquidating took call deposits and used them to invest in long term situations. Well duh., it was bound to come unstuck sooner or latter.

Blue Chip Debt fails the risk test

Following in the rumblings of the sub prime meltdown in the United States, New Zealand companies issuing debt securities to pay for business expansion have been left high and dry by fed up Kiwi investors. The Canadian School Teachers Pension Fund, who bought Telecom NZ's Yellow Pages unit this year for NZ$ 2.2 Billion were initially after $300 Million from Kiwi investors at 11% then scaled back twice before being scrapped earlier this week.

I suspect the fund wanted more than the original amount but market sentiment propelled them to scale it back. When they purchased Yellow Pages, market appetite for such debt was at an all-time high. They would have been counting on that appetite to continue when it came for them to fund their purchase.

A hint of desperation also surrounds the issue by Origin Energy, Contact Energy's(CEN) main shareholder, of preference shares with an initial 10% yield.

I have been called twice and offered to buy into this issue. Once by my Broker, ASB Securities and once by the bank that owns the broker ASB Bank. Never before have I been "hounded" in this way. I said no.

Power to the People

Not to let any opportunity go by to bash Helen Clark and her sisters in power or without power in this case.

The case for New Zealand to have nuclear power has never been stronger.

The ideological bent by the New Zealand Labour Party for the country not to use its coal and hydro assets to produce much needed electricity is only matched in stupidity by the same collective ideology that would have them oppose nuclear energy.

Labour's answer to New Zealand's power crisis is to use windmills and solar power, forgetting of course that wind the doesn't always blow (unless you are a parliamentarian) and the sun doesn't always shine(unless you are a Green Party member after your daily spliff)

Kiwi business needs cheap, reliable and plentiful supplies of power to push the economy ahead and for business to have the confidence that they are able to expand with the knowledge that the extra power is there when it is needed.

Slow food

The listed fast food company Restaurant Brands(RBD) is still looking for a leader after more than six months without one.

With news this week that one will be appointed sometime next month share investor wonders-with tongue firmly planted in cheek- whether the ex-chief of Telecom New Zealand(TEL) might be one of the contenders shortlisted.

On second thoughts, perhaps even RBD do not deserve someone so lacking in business acumen and forward planning.

I'm still available.

Burger Fuel(BFW) the listed gourmet burger wrangler, has failed to have its shares trade at all this week.

Watching the share price of this company could get more exciting next week. Yeah right!

Seriously though,this is going to be a market announcement driven stock price in the absence of any material facts and figures about how the business is doing.

Capital would have dried up though and their initial plans would have had to change.

Meanwhile the owners of Hell Pizza and Burger King, one of RBD's competitors for their Pizza Hut brand , have had a stoush with their ad company.

Cinderella Marketing, the advertising company that pursues guerrilla-style marketing promotions - including a condom letterbox drop depicting Hitler and a brazen magazine called Hell-o - are credited with making the brand stand out from bigger fast food competitors.

It seems the brazen advertising has finally got too much for Hell's owners. Was it the condoms or the Hitler references and why did it take so long for the owner of Hell to reject the brazen ad placements?

Market Wrap up

The benchmark NZSX-50 index closed up 11.88 points, or 0.3 per cent, at 4151.98, on turnover totalling $101.8 million.

The big mover today was The Warehouse(WHS) which jumped 2 per cent to 588 on the news of a special dividend of 35c a share totalling $109 million.

Auckland Airport(AIA) was still in play, as suitors such as the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board have been rumored to be making a bid soon.

Auckland Airport shares closed up 2c at 309.

Telecom (TEL)was up a cent at 438, Fletcher Building(FBU) gained 6c to 1191, Contact Energy(CEN) rose 14c to 915, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH)was up 5c at 355 after announcing new sleep apnoea products this week, and F&P Appliances(FPA) was flat at 367.

Briscoe Group(BGR) was flat at 151, reflecting consideration by the market that their profit drop announcement today was already priced in after reporting a 12 per cent fall in half-year net profit to $10.5m, as competition hit margins.

Among rising stocks, Cavalier Carpets(CAV) was up 9c at 321, Nuplex(NPX) gained 11c to 700, PGG Wrightson(PGG) was up 9c at 193, and Michael Hill(MHI) rose 15c to 1015.

Air New Zealand(AIR) lost 2c to 215 after earlier this week announcing a large special dividend, Sky City(SKC) fell 2c to 441, Vector(VCT) was down 4c at 241, and NZX (NZX)fell 5c to 975.

Lion Nathan(LNN) 5c lower at 1100, and Goodman Fielder(GFF) down 12c at 308.


Disclosure: I own SKC, GFF, FPH ,AIA shares


c Share Investor 2007








Thursday, September 6, 2007

Telecom NZ rewards ex Chief for Mediocrity

The smack in the face to investors that is the Teresa Gattung payout brings more questions than answers. Gattung was paid $5.4 million during her final year with the company, which has just been released in the 2007 Annual report.

Gattung ran Telecom New Zealand [TEL.NZ] for almost ten years and in that time was responsible for more destruction of wealth for New Zealand public shareholders in any one single listed company in this countries history.

When she took the helm in the late 90s the TEL share price had reached almost $10 and profit peaked at NZ$820 Million dollars in 1998 . Since then profit has struggled to grow and has remained basically flat until 2007 profit of just north of $900 million. Next year the company will struggle to make $650 million because of the sale of one of the companies core assets, the Yellow Pages, a decision arrived at while Gattung was at the helm.

When Gattung left the share price was barely over $4 and the company has been left with problems surrounding decaying infrastructure and obsolete technology like their 027 mobile network ,which was redundant technology even before it was introduced not so long ago.

I cant work out whether Gattung didn't get much criticism for her truly awful reign at the top of Telecom because she is a woman or because brokers and large institutions had so much money invested in the company that there wasn't that much critical opinion to be written about by our mainstream business media writers. It was probably a little of both.

Teresa Gattung was a short term thinker in business and wasn't able to grasp where the company would be in 10 years. Under-investing in the business, reactive rather than proactive, marketing spin and poor service were the hallmarks of her time at the top and the position she had the company in when she left has the company directionless, treading water and fearful of competition.

Clearly she left the company in a worse state than when she started and the $5.4 million she was paid out before she left, including over $2 million in "incentives," was a kick in the collective teeth of Telecom shareholders who had to suffer through what was one of the biggest losses in New Zealand corporate history last year.

The news that Ms Gattung has had "several job offers" from companies should leave those that have offered shaking in their boots were they to read the last 9 years of Telecom balance sheets.


Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporporate spin
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom

Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download every available TEL Annual Report Free


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c Share Investor 2007 & 2010

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Of Tulip Bulbs and Tooth Fairies

Fortune Cookie Zine, September 6, 2160

By Share Investor V

See link for story background

Markets today have reacted wildly to the latest increase in the market price of horseshoe credits.

Horseshoe credit prices on the listed [HRSHT] hope index have increased by more than 66.6% overnight as investors perceive a shortage of luck coming over the Northern Summer, as temperatures fell to 20 year lows, cementing the studies done by leading climate scientists for many years that surely prove that we are now in the midst of a new ice age.

The horseshoe credit market or HC as it is now known, has had a stellar run since its inception more than 5 years ago. Many Trillionaires have been made through HC trading as the world's luck had run out shortly before trading in this rare commodity commenced.

Of course now that HC trading has become the success that it has, the world's luck has remained at all time highs. Last nights 66.6% rise in HC prices has increased the world's luck quotient to a point where the world may not be unlucky at all again anytime soon reports Al Gore X, a broker from the Beijing Street trading giant Leeming Brothers.

Gore stated, "this sort of luck hasn't been seen since the great tooth fairy mining rush of 2150". "Looking forward", says Gore, "We don't see luck running out anytime soon. The only negative that we see is from HC deniers, led by George Bush VII, who are pushing us to relinquish the world of luck and leading us back to a world where reality, rather than luck, rules the day".

"That just cannot be allowed to happen," says Gore, "because I certainly didn't get to where I am by using reality in any way. Clearly it would be a mistake to let reality get in the way of the world's luck. Pushing the HC trading market will allow the world to continue to get its share of luck credits and any impediment to that would surely mean the world's luck will eventually run out."

HC skeptics have spearheaded a campaign to abolish the HC market and the luck that backs them, in favour of reality but this has proven difficult in the face of the Trillions of dollars that this market was worth.

The spokesman for the largest HC skeptics group, George Bush VII, from Hallichevron, lists history's failed rushes towards what he calls "loony tunes schemes" as reasons for not continuing to pursue HC trading. "Tulips Bulbs, Internet bubbles, carbon trading and 10 years ago the tooth fairy rush are examples of what history has taught us. Let us learn from history and ditch this HC trading right now."

Let us make our own luck indeed.


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c Share Investor 2008 :)





Tuesday, September 4, 2007

Fisher & Paykel: A Tale of two Companies

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/5/55/Fisher_&_Paykel_Appliances_logo.svg/300px-Fisher_&_Paykel_Appliances_logo.svg.png


The two Fisher stocks, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare[FPH] and Fisher and Paykel Appliances[FPA] are interesting propositions when looking to top up the portfolio with a potential good long-term growth company.

These two stocks used to be parts of one company and lately the share prices of the seperate companies have been trading at a similar level.

The long-term growth story and prospects for FPA and FPH could not be more different though.

Fisher and Paykel Appliances, the small white ware producer is struggling at present.

While FPA has done well in the past and continues to grow revenue, its profit margins continue to slip as competitors have produced cheaper product with more advanced technology, previously the sole domain of FPA. Their best days appear to be behind them.

The company has responded to cheaper and more savvy foreign product by cutting production in New Zealand, their home base and moving to cheaper cost bases in Thailand.

In my opinion, this will be the only way they can continue to compete with global giants such as LG and clearly this is a case of ever diminishing returns with a finite term for cost savings. FPA simply cannot compete successfully long-term with their much bigger global competition.

Management at FPA seem to be a little confused about what direction they are heading in though. They want to compete by producing more white ware units but say they want to be a niche player with higher margins. They cannot compete as a high volume producer because they are simply too small and even as a niche player they struggle against competitors flashier product.

I have a more positive spin with regard to Fisher and Paykel Healthcare though.

The only black spot that I see on the horizon for FPH and something that it shares with FPA, is the high New Zealand Dollar but that is going to be a temporary thing as the status quo for our currency is usually for it to be weak and there is no reason why that wont be the case again given the sad state of our economy.

FPH is a company on a continued drive, in its niche market as a health equipment products producer, to expand the company through innovation, technological advantage and being at the cutting edge of its business by investing in research and development to keep its very high margins.

The margin story for this business is one of the most exciting parts, apart from the technological breakthroughs they have made for the likes of sleep apnoea and various breathing apparatus.

Most companies would kill for the margins that FPH provide for their shareholders and this puts them in good stead as they move forward and continue to innovate with new products and therefore hopefully similar high margins.

The biggest breakthroughs and innovations seem to be coming from the new sleep apnoea products range. In the year to March 2007, FPH's revenue from sleep apnoea products rose 27 per cent to $162.1 million.

At last month's annual meeting, CEO Mike Daniell estimated that F&P had around 7 per cent of the global market for such products, which is growing at about 15 per cent a year.

These products will help FPH to compete with its competitors Respironics and ResMed , its two main rivals, which both sell these products.

This kind of innovation is part of the culture of the company and it will clearly continue to be a driver of profit growth as the company gets bigger.

The two Fisher stocks were split for a reason. Management knew this at the time of the split and the tales of both companies since tell the story that management probably knew as they were taking the knife to the combined company.

"Mr Market" moves in mysterious ways and I'm still a little curious as to why he has valued these two companies with a similar share price because their future prospects couldn't be more different.


*Disclosure: I own Fisher and Paykel Healthcare



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c Share Investor 2007 & 2009