Its about the economy stupid

Much has been written about the current meltdown of the worlds financial markets and apart from the fact that it is failure brought on by politicians interfering in the free market, rather than the favourite whipping boy of the socialists, the free market itself, it presents problems for our new government come November 8 2008-whoever gets elected.

This election is really about the economy. If it is about trust, then it is about who you would trust to manage their way through a deep recession, one that we are already in by the way.

Michael Cullen and Labour have mis-managed their way through 10s of billions of taxpayer dollars over the last 9 years.

Given that we have had the best economic conditions in generations, our economy did average to poor and the high taxes that were siphoned off during those good times has produced nothing but a bloated bureaucrat heavy unproductive nation on the brink of economic collapse.

As a voter you would have to ask yourself, where was the restraint, where was the saving for a rainy day approach? Instead we got the Robin Hood plunder the taxpayer approach to give to those who didn't earn it in the first place.

The fact is Cullen found it difficult to manage an economy with the best economic conditions in generations, with economic conditions at crisis levels he is a mere possum caught in the headlights.

All quotes are from the Granny Herald:

"New Zealand is facing a serious economic challenge..."

Aug 29

"There's a lot of factors coming together there," Dr Cullen said. "I think probably the worst is over now."

Sept 12

"...but the economy was vulnerable to an expected slowdown in the global economy.

..."

Sept 15

"...was welcome news ahead of the expected recovery in the fourth quarter of this year".

Sept 29

"...the problem could earlier be deemed a financial crisis rather than an economic one, it was getting beyond that now".

Oct 1

Michael Cullen seems more than a little schizophrenic on the state of our economy and while so unsure about it he has continued spending like a drunken bloody sailor to buy votes for the 2008 election!

The truth is Michael Cullen's only success in his nine years at the financial helm has been to overtax working kiwis and he has done that very well, he achieved his socialist goal, but when it comes to matters productive his petticoat is showing and it is in need of a damn good wash and disinfectant.

You are better off with a man who has experience in complex financial matters, not a PHD in History, as Michael Cullen is, a man who has run a business and knows about growing that business, in good times and bad.

John key is that man and his life from welfare recipient to multimillionaire through hard work and determination is evidence of that.

The 2008 Election really is about the economy and there is nothing stupid about that.

c Political Animal 2008

POLL: TV One Colmar Brunton Poll, Oct 5 2008

It just keeps getting worse for the Labour Party, a slide in support for Labour and an increase for the National Party. It continues a long trend of good leads for the Nats.

Related Video National and Key in clear lead (3:26)

New Zealand could get a new PM and a government that will not need coalition partners.

That's according to results from the latest ONE News Colmar-Brunton poll.

It shows National has increased its lead over Labour and only one other party reached the five percent threshold.

It seems the gaffe prone John Key was not able to hurt his party's lead to the top, with Labour's scorn so far failing to break his dream run.

The poll also found that Winston Peters still has some support, but it's the Maori Party that is increasingly looking like king makers at this election and there are few words of comfort for Helen Clark.
 
Maori Party co-leader Pita Sharples says Clark has been great, but that now she may be nearing the end of her time.

And with just over a month of campaigning to go, numbers suggest he may be right.

National is leading, with 52% of voters saying they are most likely to vote for the centre-right party. Labour has slid to 33% in the poll.

Those votes may have gone to the Greens, now on 7%.

The Maori Party rates 2.5%, while New Zealand First is still in trouble on 2% and Act on 1.5%.

When you translate that to seats in Parliament, National could govern alone with 65 seats.

Labour is in opposition with 41. The Greens pick up eight seats and assuming current electorates are held, the Maori Party has four.

Act has two and United Future and the Progressives one seat each.

It can be hard for the minor parties to get much of a look in, with intense interest in the battle to be Prime Minister.

But that battle is being won by John Key too, with 41% preferring him as NZ's next Prime Minister.

Key has a 10 point clear lead against Helen Clark who sits at 31%. Three percent of voters are still picking Winston Peters as the next preferred PM.

So far the campaign has largely been a series of photo opportunities, but that all changes on Monday.

The government accounts are to be revealed. Then National on Wednesday will unveil its vision for tax cuts, as the economy takes centre stage.

Voters were also asked on their feelings about the New Zealand economy and whether they felt the economy would get better or worse in the next 12 months.

The latest results show that economic confidence has plummeted.

The percentage of those optimistic about the economy stood at 41%, down nine percent, while those pessimistic about the economy stood at 38%, which was up 11%.

Economic woes may put extra added pressure on National.

After talking up expectations on tax cuts of around $50 a week for the average Kiwi, the party will need to show how they plan to make that possible in the current financial climate.

National is understood to be partly funding the tax cuts by reducing the amount of government money in the KiwiSaver scheme.

While that may be seen as a loss for New Zealanders, even more important for National will be to show that the party will be able to manage the recession-hit New Zealand economy during such precarious times.

It will be interesting to see Helen Clark's reaction to the reults tomorrow. Will it be another "Fairy Tale" as she said of the last Fairfax Neilson Poll?

Related Colmar Brunton Polls

Colmar Brunton Poll: 14 September 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll: 22 August 2008

Colmar Brunton poll: 17 August 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll: 20 July 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll: 22 June 2008

c Political Animal 2008

Maori Party voters better off with a National Government

There has been much talk in recent weeks about the Maori Party's new romance with John Key and National.

The Maori Party have publicly slagged Helen Clark and Winston Peters, the former for being a washed up pollie on her way out, and the latter an issue of deep distrust over Peters and his philandering ways with undisclosed donations.

The Maori Party are right to cosy up to National, they are both inherently conservative, apart from the basic racist platform that the Maori Party operate under, and both have a long history of connections with each other-National were the first to kick off the major treaty agreements that we are now seeing Labour take credit for.

National are in a position, given their strong and sustained poll ratings, to offer Maori Party voters and Maori voters in the Maori and general seats more, the Maori Party know that and Key is far more pragmatic and easier to negotiate with than Clark, so will make any post election deal far easier.

In negotiations after a probable National Party majority win, National may need Maori Party support and the delivery of results under National for Maori in the 1990s would continue under a National banner this century.

If we look at how poorly Maori population have been served in the last nine years under Labour we don't have to look far at the disappointing statistics:

Higher Maori unemployment and dependant on welfare

Poor health outcomes

Lower levels of education participation

Maori make up a much larger proportion of the crime and prison population

And so it goes on.

The outcomes for Maori have been far worse under Labour for the last nine years and the unpopular "Seabed and Foreshore Act"  passed by Labour was the impetus for the birth of the Maori Party and Maori Party members and wider Maori haven't forgotten that.

The crack by Clark before the 2005 election that:

"The Maori Party would be the last cab off the rank in any coalition talks,"

will also come back to haunt her and her party during the 2008 campaign, although earlier this week her last cab remark was replaced by a "first limo" statement about any possible 2008 coalition negotiations with the Maori Party because she is desperate.

A National/Maori Party coalition would be a natural and exciting fit for a new government until 2011 and Labours last minute attempts to curry favour with wider Maori by passing treating claims at breakneck speed is unlikely to help.

The only solution to the current problem therefore is for Maori Party voters to give their party vote to National instead of labour.

c Political Animal 2008

A right royal poking

Stan Blanch is a quirky little cartoonist who has a position of bias against Helen Clark and her Labour Party and that is fair enough, she deserves a good poking (I wouldnt touch her with a 40 ft stack of donation money from Owen Glenn though)

In this cartoon political poking has turned to poking of a different sort, Helen Clark's lack of personal responsibility over her involvement in the Owen Glenn/Peters donation scandal and lack of consequences or serious censure for both because of Clark's lust for the top job in 2008 brings her honesty back into sharp focus and New Zealanders will be poked up the rear if she is elected for a 4th term.

Voters cannot forget that her inability to act on corrupt practices by Peters, her major supporter in Parliament, puts the trust in the potential leaders that we must have under serious question.

Vote wisely November 8 .

c Political Animal 2008