Showing posts with label STU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label STU. Show all posts

Friday, January 3, 2014

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks

Superstar Xero a surprising omission from list for investors to add to their portfolios


Mainfreight is a popular pick for a strong performance in 2014 due to its increasing international exposure. Photo /  Sarah Ivey
Mainfreight is a popular pick for a strong performance in 2014 due to its increasing international exposure. Photo / Sarah Ivey
Air New Zealand is the most popular pick by brokers for 2014 riding on the back of strong expectations for profit growth at the national carrier.

Three out of seven brokers chose the airline, whose shares have already risen more than 25 per cent this year.

Rob Mercer, an analyst at Forsyth Barr, said Air New Zealand was heading into 2014 in great shape with earnings expected to increase from those already seen in 2013.

"Air New Zealand (is) poised to deliver several years of strong profit performance."

Mercer said the drivers behind that were improved demand, cost cutting, changes to loss-making long-haul routes and stable fuel prices.

Macquarie analyst Brad Gordon said Air New Zealand had outperformed its airline peers yet it was trading at a cheaper price.

"Air New Zealand's return on equity is around 11 per cent, Qantas is basically zero."

Gordon said that in the past Air New Zealand's value had traded at a discount because of the Government's high level of ownership.

The 20 per cent sold down by the Government in 2013 reduced the overhang issue and increased liquidity in the stock. Trade volumes had been boosted from around half a million dollars a day to around $1.5 million to $2 million.

Gordon said the nature of the New Zealand market meant Air New Zealand stood to benefit from the country's strong economic growth and flow-on effects from the Christchurch rebuild with more people travelling up and down the country.

Outside of Air New Zealand, Diligent, Chorus, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Contact Energy, Infratil and Mainfreight received two picks each.

Diligent, a software providers of corporate board documents, was a top performer in 2012 but this year it has struggled with governance issues and delays in restating its accounts. Its shares have fallen more than 25 per cent.

Gordon was not worried about Diligent having to restate its accounts.

"It's not entirely unusual for new software companies to go through restatements globally."

The big question mark was whether the issue had distracted management and impacted sales for the company. He would be looking closely at quarterly sales figures due out early next year.

Diligent was a top pick for brokers in 2013 but remarkably none of the brokers have picked Xero either this year or for 2014, despite its stellar performance.

Gordon believed that was down to a lack of understanding over Xero's valuation. "The last $15 the company put on really there has been no news. On the face of it it's the most expensive SAAS (software as a service) company on valuation."

Others have zeroed in on companies with strong global growth prospects.

Mark Lister, head of research at Craigs Investment Partners, said he picked Fisher & Paykel Healthcare because the business is growing strongly offshore and was well positioned to continue to deliver over the medium term. "If we see any currency weakness emerge, this would serve to enhance the investment proposition even more," he said.

Lister also picked Mainfreight for its increasing international exposure.

"Mainfreight has a strong brand and market position in Australasia but over recent years, an increasing portion of revenues and earnings have come from international operations including those in Europe and the US.

"A recovery in some of these regions, as well as any strength in the currency, would benefit Mainfreight."

Forsyth Barr's Mercer said he backed Mainfreight because it had a high marginal return on equity, it was beating peers on earnings growth and had a proactive executive team.

"Mainfreight has substantial global growth prospects."

Brokers top picks:


Macquarie Securities
Summerset Group
Diligent
Pumpkin Patch
Air New Zealand
Chorus

First NZ Capital
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Hellaby Holdings
Airwork Holdings
Z Energy
Contact Energy

Goldman Sachs
Trade Me
Tower
Air New Zealand
Infratil
Nuplex

Craigs Investment Partners
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fletcher Building
Meridian Energy
Mainfreight
Australian Foundation Investment Company

Forsyth Barr
Air New Zealand
Contact Energy
Sky Television.
Mainfreight
Opus International Consultants

Hamilton Hindin Greene
Metlifecare
Chorus
Steel & Tube
A2 Corp
NZX

McDouall Stuart
Telecom
Diligent
Infratil
Heartland Bank
VMob

*Disclaimer - Before using the Business Herald survey to choose a broker or stocks, readers should recognise that the results are skewed by some features. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five year term, the results might be different. The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances. The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
Brokers 2013 Stock Picks
Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough TimesToughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill 
Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve EverythingThink Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill 








c Share Investor 2012, 2013, 2014

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Steal & Tube

Click on photo for bigger size. Received this in the post yesterday sold my very small holding in Steel & Tube [STU.NZ] last week. Got about double for it. Stunned that there are so many out there that would sell but there it is, just warning you, beware.


Steel & Tube @ Share Investor

Value Play: Steel & Tube Ltd
Long Term View: Steel & Tube Ltd
OneSteel makes cheeky bid for minority shareholders
NZX's Top 10 Dividend Returns

Discuss STU @ Share Investor Forum
Download STU Company Reports




c Share Investor 2012

Monday, December 12, 2011

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks

2011 has been a hard year on the stockmarket but lets forget about all the drama the PIIGs, Greek meltdowns, American deficits and massive bloated debt that threatens to strangle all before it and reinstate the stock picking monkey to pick stocks for 2012 .

It is the 5th edition this year and promises to be one of the most interesting if only for the possibility that 2012 will be a worse year for stocks than 2011.

In the face of a continued global recession, an uncertain economic future that had a big impact at the end of 2008 and continues today 2012 will be harder to pick than 2011.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are primarily based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest.

NB 2: Stock prices quoted range from Dec 1-10.

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks


Picks from the NZX



Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd

[SKC.NZX]

Image

Sky City Entertainment has had an exceptional 2011, with a record FY 2011 profit at the hands of an excellent CEO and a number of strategies planned and executed to produce pleasing results for shareholders. The share price of the company has not however tracked its increased fortunes and has been trading in 2011 between $3.10 - $3.70.

The company has invested alot of money in expansion of the business in 2011 with a large number of eateries and bars added across the company's casinos and new gaming areas in the Auckland casino bearing fruit. 2012 looks promising as the company has bid for a national convention centre and look to cement this deal with Govt in the early part of that year

It looks to be good value as a result of this low share price relative to its prospects of a full year profit for 2012 of between $140-150 million.

Buy on weakness if this company has already been in your sights.

Disc I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor


VIDEO - Sky City Entertainment Group : Parliamentary Question related to Convention Centre
Sky City to pay for National Convention Centre
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


Share Investor's Total Returns: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Group
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City set to lose National Convention Centre bid
Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group
Are Insiders selling Sky City Stock?
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster
Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports


Contact Energy Ltd

[CEN.NZX]

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/summary-chart.img?symb=NZ:cen
Contact Energy has had a tough 2011 with stagnant profits and falling customer numbers but 2012 is shaping up to be a better year for the company.

Drought conditions experienced now and forecast to continue across Summer are going to benefit a generator like Contact considerably and this will go straight to the bottom-line. Customer numbers have stopped falling and have showed some small gains over the last 3 months.

The are also persistent rumours that majority owner of the company origin Energy Ltd[ORG.NZX] are still interested in taking full control at some stage.

The share price started the year at just under 6 bucks and has traded the year below that price for the majority of 2011 and even hitting the mid $4.70 mark in August and at the current price of $5.52 is still looking a buy

I bought some at $5.34 in July and I think investors have bailed too early considering things are finally starting to go their way. Look to buy before Winter 2012 because I am picking a good one for the company because of what I have outlined above.

A good defensive stock in times of economic uncertainty as 2012 will no doubt be.

Disc I own CEN shares in the Share Investor 2 Portfolio


Contact Energy @ Share Investor


Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
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Not so fast Davy Boy
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MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download CEN Company Reports

TradeMe Ltd
[TME.NZX]

Image
While only just listed at the time of writing, TradeMe could be one of those company's that continue to do well in 2012 despite global economic uncertainty. A good defensive monopoly stock in these terms as they tend to do even better during the hard times. TradeMe has a good track record and should do well in the medium term.

Plenty of demand for the IPO should see an improvement in share price.

The company is looking for a Pro-forma $65 million profit for the 12 months to June 30 2012, down from $69.8 million in 2011, so a reasonably steady bottom-line should be good for a reasonable dividend payout through 2012 and beyond.

TradeMe Ltd@ Share Investor

Trademe IPO: A Closer Look
TradeMe Prospectus

Discuss TRE @ Share Investor Forum


Sky Network Television Ltd
[SKT.NZX]
Image

Sky Television is a company that has done well over 2011. A 2011 full year profit up by nearly 17% on revenue up just 7.4%, the company has benefited by increased customers, the switch of present customers to premium digital services and the 2011 Rugby World Cup.

2012 will see the company consolidate this growth with the continuation of the digital switch, a move towards internet TV and the 2012 Olympic Games. All good revenue earners.

Another good defensive monopoly (like all the companies listed above this stock pick), SKT is insulated somewhat from the global economic crises more than other stocks because it gets its revenue from inside New Zealand.

At its current share price of $5.35 it is close to 12 months lows of $5.25, so at this price it makes a good net return of around 6%.

Sky Network Television @ Share Investor

Sky Network Television Ltd: Time for some Stripping
Share Price Alert: Sky Network Television Ltd
Long Term View: Sky Network Television Ltd
Watching Sky Television
Market Quickie: Sky TV Worth Watching

Discuss SKT @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKT Company Reports


Trustpower Ltd

[TPW.NZX]

Image
Trustpower had a 2012 first half year result up nearly 20% on the previous year and is a well run company with a good track record. With 220,000 customers this generator and retailer is around half the size of Contact Energy but shows a more consistently even return on investment.

The areas that it services are geographically spread but mostly in rural areas where business is still strong and servicing a large number of dairy farms that are still doing good business and are likely to need a growing energy demand as 2012 rolls on.

With a gross dividend yield of just over 7% this beats Contact's yield by around 1.5% and that figure alone is a good reason to buy this stock at or near these prices levels in these high inflationary times.

The stock is currently trading at its 12 month lows.

Trustpower @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Trustpower Ltd

Discuss TPW @ Share Investor Forum
Download TPW Company Reports


Vector Ltd
[VCT.NZX]

Image

Vector is the last electricity company included in the 2012 picks and it has been picked principally because of its high gross return of nearly 8%, its defensive nature as an essential utility and a reasonable if unexciting long-term investment.

Vector achieved a 2011 full year profit of just over $200 million, an increase of 4% on 2010. Management expect 2012 EBITDA to be up slightly so just watch the share price which is currently tracking at $2.47 for any pull-backs as the stock is trading close to its 12 months highs of $2.65.

Vector @ Share Investor

Vector Ltd: Share Price chasing fibre network success
Long Term View: Vector Ltd
Vector sale decision hangs on political knife edge
NZX's Top 10 Dividend Returns

Discuss VCT @ Share Investor Forum
Download VCT Company Reports


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Ltd
[FPH.NZX]


Image

I have included Fisher & Paykel Healthcare in 2012 because I still consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years and one I included in the 2008, 2009 ,2010 and 2011 Share Investor stock picks,.

It is not only a company with good long-term prospects but a company that is another good hedge against the current global turmoil. Despite the grim economic conditions over the last few years it has managed to grow revenue well and only suffering slightly with a decreased profit because of the weak US dollar. Their products will still sell well despite a possible downturn in other business sectors.

Its share price has done nothing over the last 12 months but as I said above economic conditions have failed to dent its prospects and 2012 looks to show more of the same.

With a 2012 half year profit and revenue up strongly on 2011 2012 looks to be an even better year than 2011 in terms or business operations.

Its share price has suffered since I picked it at around $3.10 12 months ago, so this of course makes it an even better pick than 2011 when you consider at the current price of $2.40 the stock is returning a healthy 7 % plus gross dividend.

FPH shares have been at a low of $2.13 in September due to currency weakness in the US dollar (It gets the bulk of its revenues in US dollars but does have hedging) so when making your pick next year tend to make your play when the US dollar is under pressure.

Disc I own FPH shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor



Global Market Sell-Off Stocks: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed takes market share from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Resmed kicking Fisher & Paykel Heathcares butt?
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I'm Buying: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's Total Returns: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar
Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
Long Term View: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
Long VS Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious tale
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports


Ebos Ltd
[EBO.NZX]
Image

Ebos Ltd is another company that should withstand the economic rigours of 2012. 2011 saw them produce a full year 2011 profit up nearly 19% on 2010 on revenue up by 200 million.

EBOS is a leading supplier and distributor of both specialty and generic medical and pharmaceutical products to the New Zealand, Australian and Pacific Islands public and private healthcare sectors and is, like Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, somewhat insulated from the macro conditions that usually influence other companies.

The company has doubled profit over the last 4 years and has a good track record historically.

The share price is off its 12 month highs of over $7.50 and at its current share price of $6.10 is paying a healthy dividend of over 7% gross. The company has a history of increasing dividend payouts.

The company is very positive for growth in 2012 and have lowered debt considerably over the last few years.


EBO @ Share Investor

Long Term View: EBOS Group Ltd

Discuss EBO @ Share Investor Forum
Download EBO Company Reports


Mainfreight Ltd

[MFT.NZ]

Image

I am picking Mainfreight for 2012 after leaving it out for my 2011 picks because it had gained 30% in value after I picked it in 2010 and I considered it overvalued at just under 8 bucks.

At just under $10 at time of writing and after reaching an all-time high of $10.72 in July 2011, the share price now is 20% higher than what it was at the end of 2010 when I picked it, you might be wondering why I am picking MFT for 2012.

Well, you will already know why if you are a regular reader of this blog that I think Mainfreight is a company that is the best managed company and with the best prospects on the NZX.

Mainfreight is a dominant player in the logistics sector in Australasia and has businesses in North America, Asia and now Europe with the acquisition in mid 2011 of the Wim Bosman Group. It has designs on becoming a global logistics player, has surpassed 1.2 billion in revenue in 2011 and has a stated aim of doubling in size over the next 3-5 years.

Mainfreight has had a great 2011, with 2012 first half result profit significantly up and its share price has picked up as a result and long-term their lengthy track record of success looks likely to continue.

Having been glowing about its prospects long-term, 2012 could be a bad year for the company as global trade looks set for a downturn as the European debt crises bites on their economy hard and the outlook for the global economy is more than a little negative.

Logistics companies are one of the first sectors to feel the impact of economic downturns and I think this might be a good opportunity to buy on weakness in the share price in 2012.

Buy below 6 bucks with a view to hold a minimum of 5 years for superior returns.

Disc I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd 3
Mainfreight's European Aquisition a Good Move
Share Price Alert: Mainfreight Ltd
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Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd: 2011 1st quarter Profit Analysis
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Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
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Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
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Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
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Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
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KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum
Download Mainfreight Company Reports


Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]

My final main pick but certainly not the least, is Xero , the online accounting software company. Xero is a niche player in an industry dominated by global players like Quicken and MYOB and it increased its customer base significantly in 2011 and looks set to build on 2011's gains. It has however put the break-even point for the company in terms of net profit off until 2012 - that deadline was supposed to be reached late this year.

It is presently building its customer base to get "critical mass".

The buzz in the tech industry surrounding Xero is reflected in the amount of support the company has from insiders and it could be well a big player in time to come. The company has had some significant financial backers from those who know Xero well but Mums and Dads are still largely absent from the shareholder register.

XRO is a little riskier than most investments and the share price has finished the year off pretty much where it began but took a dip close to 2 bucks in July.

I include Xero this time because even though founder and CEO Rod Drury told me in 2010 that he wasn't going to sell the company and was dedicated to seeing it through to a stage where the company would be a global player, I think that he maybe tempted to take offers going at a time where the company could struggle to maintain revenue growth and therefore gain that critical mass. Xero would be valuable to a Quicken or MYOB as an add-on to their businesses.

Buy on dips below $2.50.


Xero Ltd @ Share Investor


Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 2
Share Price Alert:Xero Ltd
Xero Ltd: 2011 HY Loss looking promising
From Xero to Hero?
Stock of the Day: Xero Ltd
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero?
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum
Download Xero Company Reports


Other Notable Quotables

Auckland international Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] A good monopoly at historically cheap prices, doing better in 2012 and set to pick up profit again in 2012.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX] has been beaten down to penny dreadful status and currently trading at 35c but still has brand recognition and could recover in late 2012 somewhat if the Christchurch earthquake rebuild kicks off. An off side chance if you want a punt.

Steel & Tube Ltd [STU.NZX] & Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] have both been given a hammering share price wise in 2011 and both will benefit greatly from a Christchurch rebuild supposedly kicking off in late 2012. Watch for share price dips to buy when overall market sentiment is negative.

As you might also think I recommend every stock in the Share Investor Portfolio - except PPG, PPL and GFF. The last 3 are turning into stinkers.

Nasdaq

YUM! Brands Inc
[YUM.NASDAQ]

Image

A pick from 2010 and 2011 Yum ! Brands Inc achieved a target of 10% sales growth for 2011 and with more tasty growth to come in 2012 and beyond from China & India still make this company a Finger Lickin proposition.


ASX

Coca Cola Amatil

[CCL.AX]

Image

Coca Cola Amatil is the dominant player in the carbonated drinks market in Australasia. It sells its iconic Coca Cola brand as well as a large number of other well known brands in New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Fiji and a number of other markets in this part of the world. Their 2010 Annual Report shows a record profit of nearly AU$ 500 million on strong revenue growth.

A strong history of profits can be a good sign that there is more to come in the future and the fact that its customers are largely addicted to its products makes this company a great long term bet. I have always liked this company because it keeps managing to grow its business with clever marketing and product placement at sales outlets.

Buy on any weakness for superior long-term returns.

Coca Cola @ Share Investor

Coke is it!

Discuss Coca Cola @ Share Investor Forum


Conclusion
& Outlook for 2012

2012 may well be a year of some severe downward corrections on global stockmarkets. As uncertainty surrounds the fragile state of many economies and the precarious state of Europe's debt yoke and more pain and drama to come in the United States as politicians argue over spending cuts to stop the country from defaulting. Gains made on stockmarkets in 2011 could materialize for some as nervousness over the aforementioned leaves them to take cash off the table. It is clear that there is much more bad news in relation to the global economy to come and the consequences of this bad news one can only guess at but it will not be pretty at all.

That aside if you can, some listed companies have done well in 2011 and will continue to do so in 2012 but others will find the going tough as cash flow dries up, debt mounts and interest rates bite.

I have concentrated largely on defensive monopoly type stocks for 2012 with the bulk or all of their revenues coming domestically and picked in 2012 will do comparatively well for that year and should do well over the next 5 years or so as we see these uncertain economic times continue.

If there is no upturn in the economy, stockmarket share price weakness will have me poised to buy further shares in some of the companies I own in the Share Investor Portfolio with surplus cash of over $32,000.00 in dividends and some with borrowed funds if there are some really good bargains to be had. I am looking at buying more Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] shares should the share price fall further with US dollar weakness.

Remember, the stocks I have picked above are based on my investment criteria and may not fit yours and of course you could have a different opinion. I would love to hear your opinion and any picks you may have.

Have a look at what I have to say, take it on board or not and then do your own research to see if you might agree with me.

Lastly, I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2012, we are going to need it!


**Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2012. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.


Disclosure
: I own FPH, SKC, CEN, AIA, FBU & MFT shares in the
Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks


Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks



Related Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition
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c Share Investor 2008 - 2012

Friday, August 5, 2011

Share Price Alert: The Entire NZX

NZSX50 Chart NZSX10 Chart ASX200 Chart
Global Indices

At time of writing the NZX 50 stockmarket index is down 95 points or 2.80% after a toweling on the DOW last night and a rogering in Europe.

Most non market watchers find days like these terrifying but I like market jitters like this because I love getting bargains. It is the equivalent of boxing day sales before Christmas.

I am by nature a contrarian and like to buy as others are selling.

Everything on the NZX today is down with the 5 biggest drops from the Share Investor Portfolio in this order.

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX] 6.1%
ASB Preference Shares [ASBPB.NZX] 3.9%
Steel & Tube Ltd [STU.NZX] 3.7%
Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZX] 3.7%
Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] 3.2%

I would suggest that Monday might be an even better opportunity to have another look as sentiment on Wall Street doesn't look good as well as some important economic data out overnight on jobs looks likely to be negative.

I will be looking to make a move on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] after a good canning on the DOW, tomorrow NZ time. It is currently trading at $2.47, close to my target of $2.35.

Like we didn't see this all coming.

Share Price Alert Series

Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011



Monday, March 14, 2011

Share Price Alert: Steel & Tube Ltd



Give to those affected by the Christchurch Quake here

Like Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] Steel & Tube Ltd [STU.NZX] share price has been swept away by speculation over how much revenue the company will gain in the rebuilding of Christchurch after the February 22 Earthquake.

Since February 22 STU shares have put on 29c or around 13% to close at $2.54 last Friday. This is after gaining a similar percentage in share price since a late November 2010 price of $2.05c.

I see the worst of STU being behind it after a deep building recession and the Christchurch rebuilding will have a substantial positive material impact on revenue and profit from early 2012 through the next 5 years as the city is slowly reconstructed.

STU shares have come off recent highs of $2.65 and any further weakness should see medium to long term investors ready with their cash management accounts topped up and ready to go.

Buy on any weakness.


Disc I own FBU & STU share in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Price Alert

Contact Energy Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Steel & Tube @ Share Investor


Value Play: Steel & Tube Ltd
Long Term View: Steel & Tube Ltd
OneSteel makes cheeky bid for minority shareholders
NZX's Top 10 Dividend Returns

Discuss STU @ Share Investor Forum
Download STU Company Reports

From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011

Friday, July 2, 2010

Value Play: Steel & Tube Ltd



The 6 month chart (see above) of Steel & Tube Ltd [STU.NZ] is one ugly looking sheila but beneath the veneer of the surface turmoil beats a company with a solid long-term background dating back to the mid 1950s and in combination with the low share price this girl starts to look attractive (see picture below for comparison)



I have a very small holding of 400 shares that I have longed to add to and at a closing price yesterday of $2.15 it is definitely on my radar. I bought 400 at around $4.75 (a mistake yes) when I had some left over cash from another share purchase 3 or 4 years ago so you can see why I am getting excited now.

The company is highly cyclical and at the moment is close to or at the bottom of that cycle and its share price reflects that.

Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] for example is another highly cyclical company at or near its peak in terms of profits and sales and its share price is currently mirroring it fortunes.

STUs half year profit to 31 December 2009
was a shocker, down around 85% on revenue down by 30% but management say the company shows signs of improving. Of course I am very negative that things will improve anytime soon but this stock is looking cheap even during the current deep recession we are experiencing.

Things of course could get worse economy-wise and the share price will probably reflect that so be patient and you could get this stock for under 2 bucks.

It is on my watchlist to add around 1600 to take my holding to 2000.

Steel & Tube @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Steel & Tube Ltd
OneSteel makes cheeky bid for minority shareholders
NZX's Top 10 Dividend Returns

Discuss STU @ Share Investor Forum

Download STU Company Reports

From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010