Showing posts with label GFF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GFF. Show all posts

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Hot stock picks for 2013

More stockpicks in which you can slavishly salivate over in 2013. Most of them not disclosed.

Stockbrokers' stated optimism for the year ahead on local and global sharemarkets is subject to a pretty big proviso: no more global financial crises please.


The catch-phrases of the past few years - the "credit crunch", "the GFC", "euro woes", the debt ceiling - have settled and equities markets could be looking at a second year without catastrophe.
It's not a lofty goal, but JB Were investment strategy group adviser Bernard Doyle says investors can take heart from relative stability, even if growth in their returns isn't spectacular.
"It won't be a blockbuster year for growth but it could be a year where for consecutive years... you haven't had some extreme bouts of risk events or worry about like a European collapse or markets teetering on the abyss again.
"If we get two years in a row where markets aren't concerned about existential threats - threats to the financial system - that will be the biggest achievement."
But there is already a problem on the horizon. The powerhouse United States economy is running out of financial road and heading for a "fiscal cliff".
At the bottom of that particular canyon lies Greek-style austerity measures which would equate to more than 5 per cent of the United States' GDP and lead to an almost certain recession.
However, the American political divide would have to grow to Grand Canyon proportions for a disagreement on government budget policy to push the country into such serious economic repercussions.
On the plus side, China has managed to manoeuvre its economic levers appropriately to avoid the mistakes of the Western economies, said MSL Capital Markets' Peter Elenio.
"Chinese authorities worked so hard to try and take the air out of their economy, to try and learn from Western mistakes, including everything from trying to keep inflation down and making sure that banks didn't lend too much.
"They do actually have the ability to turn the tap on again and I think we're seeing signs of that now."
However Doyle said the New Zealand sharemarket had actually benefited from the recent global stability concerns, as investors looked for off-the-radar equities with high yields, which New Zealand companies specialise in.
Investors were happy to buy cheap then, but will be looking for tangible earnings growth from those companies in the new year, he warned.
"It won't be a 20 per cent [return] year, but we could have a 10 to 15 per cent year quite possibly."
What follows are market leaders' top picks for 2013.
FIRST NZ CAPITAL, ROB BODE, HEAD OF RESEARCH
1. Diligent Board Member Services (DIL): At the intersection of two of the most important mega-trends in computing, namely "software as a service" and the iPad. In 2013 we believe Diligent will demonstrate its ability to generate substantial free cashflow while maintaining high growth rates at the top line.
2. Summerset Group (SUM): Underpinned by ageing population, which will only amplify in coming years as baby-boomers start to retire. We see a busy year in 2013 as Summerset proves that it can achieve much higher build rates across multiple villages.
3. PGG Wrightson (PGW): After an extensive period of restructuring, the outlook for PGW appears to be improving finally. Our enthusiasm is due to growth in rural merchandise sales and anticipated recovery in Australian seed sales, partially offset by weaker livestock revenue and real estate commission. Combined with an improving debt position, we expect the company to resume dividend payments in 2013.
4. Sky Television (SKT): Expected to be a solid performer in the year ahead as focus turns to earnings growth resuming in FY14 following a flat FY13 result. While it is a maturing business model, the recent special dividend highlights SKT's strong cashflow generation.
5. Kathmandu (KMD): Continues to enjoy decent same-store sales growth, highlighting ongoing strength in its sector, which should translate into higher earnings now that new systems and distribution centres have been bedded down. KMD share price to earnings multiple (10 times) is still undemanding, and with good execution could exceed current earnings estimates.
MACQUARIE PRIVATE WEALTH, BRAD GORDON, SENIOR INVESTMENT ADVISER
1. Goodman Fielder (GFF): With a dividend yield in excess of 4.5 and 6 per cent growth, GFF could be priced at up to a 40 per cent premium to market price to earnings ratio [pe] multiples.
2. Oceania Gold (OGC): We forecast gold production reaching 320,000 ounces in 2013 and 350,000-plus ounces by 2014, up from 230,000 in 2012. At the same time, we expect cash costs to fall almost 40 per cent to average below $650 per ounce once [Philippines-based gold copper project] Didipio is in full production. We continue to believe that the significant production growth will be the catalyst leading to a re-rating for the stock.
3. Pumpkin Patch (PPL): with FY13 shaping up as a year of consolidation, PPL appears well positioned to deliver strong medium-term earnings-per-share [EPS] growth, enjoy the flexibility of not being handicapped by out-of-the-money hedges, rebuild the Pumpkin Patch brand, expand Charlie & Me, reduce working capital commitments and pay an appealing dividend.
4. Ryman Healthcare (RYM): has a unique needs-based model (ie aged-care-heavy), and remains the market leader in a sector with both favourable economics and attractive long-term growth driven by demographics.
5. Restaurant Brands (RBD): offers an appealing blend of solid dividend and share-price growth as it leverages its core capabilities, firstly with the introduction of Carl's Jr, and potentially in the future with other, complementary brands.
JB WERE [NZ], BERNARD DOYLE, INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP
1. Fletcher Building (FBU): The stock price has improved a long way from $6 to above $8. We know we're in a housing recovery, not just in Christchurch but also Auckland. The Australian housing market could be on the cusp of recovery. Earnings growth forecast is 15 per cent in 2013, 30 per cent in 2014.
2. Infratil (IFT): The underlying businesses are attractive, but they're not being recognised by the market. We have been quite impressed by earnings growth coming out of some of the underlying businesses - Energy Australia and Z Energy. That makes the stock quite attractive.
3. SkyCity (SKC): The stock price has lagged behind others around it that have moved strongly higher. We think there's valuation support for the company. There are potential catalysts for growth with the Auckland convention centre and potential for expansion of its Australian operations, including $375m investment in Adelaide. It's languished a little bit but we like the quality of the business, we're happy to be patient.
4. Guiness Peat Group (GPG): We still see the intrinsic value of the underlying assets as discounted, and as the company continues to wind up its investments, the gap between underlying value and the market's pricing will narrow. The stock has the most emotional baggage of any in the NZ market. There are a lot of disappointed investors, rightly so. To own that stock, you'd have to be happy to own Coats, its biggest underlying business, and so most likely the one you will be left with.
5. New Zealand Oil & Gas (NZOG): The management of cash resources of the company has improved markedly, and it's now paying an impressive yield. There's good discipline around its exploration plans. We like having a little bit of oil in the mix, anyway, because if I was looking into 2013 and asking what could go badly wrong, there's still Iran sitting out there with nuclear ambitions.
FORSYTH BARR, ROB MERCER, HEAD OF RESEARCH
1. Mainfreight (MFT): The firm has set out to methodically build a global freight logistics business and its acquisition of Wim Bosman for € 110 million has given MFT a solid footprint into Europe. MFT has a high marginal return on equity through leveraging organic growth from its existing network and earnings growth outpacing the market and its peers. The executive team is proactive and has proven to be highly responsive to changes in market conditions, and it has substantial global growth prospects.
2. PGG Wrightson (PGW): This company has made progress in improving the underlying operating performances of its core rural-services businesses. Its proprietary seed business remains in a strong position with a competitive advantage in its significant research and development facilities. It is focused on reducing debt through the monetisation of its loan portfolio and targeting working capital. Assuming no further drastic climatic condition issues in Australia and New Zealand, we believe PGW is well positioned to achieve solid earnings growth over the medium term.
3. Ryman (RYM): Compelling demographics mean this business continues to deliver a high-quality product that is enjoying increased demand. It has the scale, in-house expertise and development pipeline to capitalise on this demand and is a recognised market leader.
4. SkyCity (SKC): is very well placed for medium-term operational upside from improvements to its Auckland casino and the underlying economic conditions, but the operating environment remains subdued. Encouraging signs at the key Auckland property over the full-year 2012, in particular for the Auckland gaming machines and international business. A strong generator of free cashflow, a sound balance sheet and potential further leverage from the NZ International Convention Centre.
5. Skellerup (SKL): Its model is proactive, seeking to drive operational improvements and the pursuit of new product development in close association with customers.
PETER ELENIO, MSL CAPITAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL ADVISER
1. A2 Corporation (ATM): has experienced strong revenue growth in 2012 with growing appreciation of the health benefits of its products. We expect the ambitious growth strategy and investment over the last two years in expanding into the UK and other key markets will start to show results in the coming year. We anticipate that A2 will be included in the NZX 50 during the next year attracting greater investor interest.
2. Diligent Board Member Services (DIL): One of the real growth stocks of the last three years, it has a global leading position in the provision of software portal services to major corporates. Continues to benefit from margin expansion and increasing compliance requirements imposed by regulatory authorities. Sales penetration in Europe and Asia is expected to drive revenue growth. Diligent is also developing a dividend policy.
3. Skellerup (SKL): Strong dividend yield and focused management has led us to believe that this stock will continue to benefit from greater institutional interest.
4. NZX: 2013 looks very encouraging for listing fees and other revenue streams that NZX should benefit from. The Government's plans for the partial sell-down of some of the state-owned assets and the pipeline of other expected IPOs should drive improved performance. The focus of the new management team on forming strong relationships with all market participants is expected to see benefits.
5. Tower (TWR): Continues to perform well and margin expansion is expected to continue with a lower level of claims in a number of its divisions. The sale of GPG's stake could create the prospect of corporate activity.

c Share Investor 2013

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Goodman Fielder Ltd: Cutting my losses

The capital raising of $258 million by Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX] should, to be frank, piss the hell out of GFF shareholders. While the company has had some bad times over the last 3 years or so management knew what position they were in and failed to respond to a market for their goods that was waivering due to the dire condition of the economy and are only now addressing the problem of their debt levels and falling sales.

I of course failed to listen to myself and should have sold when the share price hit just over 2 bucks in 2010 after being well below that in 2009 but I am either an eternal optimist or a silly old git - I will let you decide which.

The previous CEO managed the company into this mess and I have little faith that the CEO of the last few months will do any better given his previous poor track record.

The company itself has stated that the next 3 years or so will be painful with lower profits and a "restructuring" where presumably non-core assets will be jettisoned and the proceeds put towards paying down that rather large debt mountain but this is a big ask for management considering their poor stewardship of the company since its listing on the NZX in 2006.

I am lucky that I only have a small holding of 2000 shares bought at $2.33 so my loss will not be as big as others but nobody likes losing money. I will lose just under $3000.00 if I sell the main shares at current prices.

There will be a small amount of money coming from selling the rights in the 5:12 rights issue.

GFF shareholders have 3 options.

1. keep the shares and don't participate in the rights issue and sell the rights thereby having their shareholding diluted by almost 50%

2. participate in the rights issue and invest more money into the company.

3. sell the shares now.

If GFF shareholders keep their shares they will have to cross their fingers that management will be able to break their historically bad leadership of the company and the share price recovers at some stage.

Putting more money into such a risky proposition seems, well, risky.


Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

Capital raising offer document

Is Goodman Fielder Terminal?
Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum
Download GFF company Reports

Recommended Fishpond Reading

Crisis: One Central Bank Governor and the Global Financial Collapse

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011


Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Is Goodman Fielder Terminal?

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.7323057377352515&style=2242&symb=GFF&size=1&type=64&time=6yr&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=&ma=&maval=&lf=268435456&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=2174916
6 year GFF Chart

Goodness me, a stock in the Share Investor Portfolio, Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX], has stumbled its way down to penny dreadful status and finished down 12c or 11.7% to close at 91c yesterday. This the lowest share price ever for this company (see 6 year chart above) and there could be some more weakness in the stock yet.

The company has been hit by high commodity prices, an inability to claw margins back by raising prices, high company debt and slack management with a lack of foresight and planning that would make even Phil Goff look like the best priministerial material this country has ever seen by comparison.

To top this off, key staff (maybe the company will be better off without them on second thought) have been leaving the sinking ship and the new CEO appears to lean to the dipstick side of the business world rather than carrying a big stick.

So I really have little positive to say about this company anymore. Things will get better in terms of commodity prices and the economy but that may be a long road to climb yet but having said that current management are doing little to make the hard times run smoother.

Inept is a word I would use to describe management at Goodmans you but you may want to use another less offensive one (or maybe more offensive as the case maybe and you are a suffering shareholder - I am such a softie after all)but with the current share price as it is and with their big stable of household brands (yes that is one positive I always come back to with GFF - sorry regular readers to bore you again with that line) in their cupboard the company maybe a target for a takeover or perhaps anyone now interested may want to wait a year or two and get those brands cheaper if the company should fold in a heap of peanut butter smears, french loave crumbs and margarine stains.

Can you tell I am pissed off yet?

Anyway, I will rant on.

The share price may well suffer additionally, as the world financial climate waivers on the brink of something (who really knows what?) and management appear to stumble from one poor financial result to the next. The share price has dipped $1.10 or just over 55% since a November 2010 (see 1 year chart below) high of just over 2 bucks, an all-time low, but the share price hit close to these levels in early 2009 of around $1.20 and then managed to scrape itself off the floor 20 months latter.

http://chart.bigcharts.com/custom/fairfax-com-nz/chart.asp?rnd=0.7323057377352515&style=2242&symb=GFF&size=1&type=64&time=1year&freq=1dy&comp=&compidx=&ma=&maval=&lf=268435456&lf2=&lf3=&uf=16384&arrowdates=&arrowlegend=&country=NZ&sid=2174916
1 year GFF Chart

If you think like me though that the value in the company remains in the brand portfolio they have you might want to put this stock on your watchlist and take the risk that either current management will do better (unlikely and they could do worse) or someone else will recognise that there is an impending bargain in the process in terms of capturing those household essentials and staples that the company sells to Kiwi and Aussie families.

Until then I will remain peed off at management that have wasted the value of those brands and have taken the company into such a negative direction that possible suitors deserve to manage the company more than the current ratbags.

This company is now a moderately risky investment but there is value to those willing to take that risk.

I will probably not be participating.

I will however still be buying their Ploughmans and Vogels bread.

Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum
Download GFF company Reports

Recommended Fishpond Reading

Crisis: One Central Bank Governor and the Global Financial Collapse

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011


Friday, August 5, 2011

Share Price Alert: The Entire NZX

NZSX50 Chart NZSX10 Chart ASX200 Chart
Global Indices

At time of writing the NZX 50 stockmarket index is down 95 points or 2.80% after a toweling on the DOW last night and a rogering in Europe.

Most non market watchers find days like these terrifying but I like market jitters like this because I love getting bargains. It is the equivalent of boxing day sales before Christmas.

I am by nature a contrarian and like to buy as others are selling.

Everything on the NZX today is down with the 5 biggest drops from the Share Investor Portfolio in this order.

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX] 6.1%
ASB Preference Shares [ASBPB.NZX] 3.9%
Steel & Tube Ltd [STU.NZX] 3.7%
Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZX] 3.7%
Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] 3.2%

I would suggest that Monday might be an even better opportunity to have another look as sentiment on Wall Street doesn't look good as well as some important economic data out overnight on jobs looks likely to be negative.

I will be looking to make a move on Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] after a good canning on the DOW, tomorrow NZ time. It is currently trading at $2.47, close to my target of $2.35.

Like we didn't see this all coming.

Share Price Alert Series

Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011



Thursday, June 9, 2011

Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 3

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX]is not one of my better investments. It has returned roughly zilch in the 5 years I have held it.

Never mind, this piece isn't about my poor investment choices but about timing your purchase at the right price.

An opportunity to buy has arisen again since a profit warning in April and a prior share price alert for this stock at $1.44. The share price has retreated since then by 18c or just below 15% to close at $1.26 yesterday. This is the 52 week low. A high of 2 bucks back in November 2010 shows how much value the company has lost in just 9 months.

The share price was last at these levels back in March 2009.

Profit has been impaired by higher commodity prices and unfavourable exchange rates - a common theme for this company for the last few years - and management have seen fit to move prices for their brands higher to recover those increased costs but too late to recover for the full year outlook.

The appointment of a new CEO on June 1 with a very generous and restrictive remuneration package and a lacklustre business history hasn't helped either.

Consumer pressure on price is going to make it hard going for the company to recover these costs as long as the current recession bites and consumers are tending to settle for non brand goods instead of buying some of the pricier brands that GFF offers.

All is not lost though, these Goodman brands are some of the best in the business, are staples on the family table and will continue to be sold and increase in sales when the economy returns to some sort of "normality".

The current share price returns a gross dividend of slightly over 11%, which is clearly a very attractive income given term investment rates of less than half this.

I am picking more softness in this share though and if you have been looking to buy this stock anyway patience is going to get it into your portfolio for less than the current share price.


Share Price Alert Series

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum
Download GFF company Reports

Recommended Fishpond Reading

Crisis: One Central Bank Governor and the Global Financial Collapse

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011


Thursday, April 28, 2011

Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 2



I have to admit Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX]is not one of my better investments. It has returned roughly zilch in the 5 years I have held it.

Never mind, this piece isnt about my poor investment choices but about timing your purchase at the right price.

An opportunity to buy has arisen today after a profit warning marking down FY 2011 profit to a range between $140 - 150 million. The share price has retreated today by 13c or just above 8% to close at $1.44 today. It reached an intra day low of $1.40 and this is the 52 week low. A high of 2 bucks back in November 2010 shows how much value the company has lost in just 6 months.

Profit has been impacted by higher commodity prices and unfavourable exchange rates - a common theme for this company for the last few years - and management have seen fit to move prices for their brands higher to recover those increased costs but too late to recover for the full year outlook.

Consumer pressure on price is going to make it hard going for the company to recover these costs as long as the current recession bites and consumers are tending to settle for non brand goods instead of buying some of the pricier brands that GFF offers.

All is not lost though, these Goodman brands are some of the best in the business, are staples on the family table and will continue to be sold and increase in sales when the economy returns to some sort of "normality".

The current share price returns a gross dividend of slightly over 9%, which is clearly a very attractive income given term investment rates of less than half this.

I am picking more softness in this share though and if you have been looking to buy this stock anyway patience is going to get this stock into your portfolio for less than the current share price.


Share Price Alert Series


Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum
Download GFF company Reports

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A     Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd



Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX] isn't what you would call a stellar stock in terms of underlying financial performance and returns to investors, there are better companies out there.

Having said that this stock has taken a significant hit in the last 3 months (see 12 month chart above) and is trading at more realistic valuations to the performance of the company.

The stock closed at $1.64 last Friday, a drop of nearly 40% on a November high of 2 bucks and a 52 week of $2.07 reached earlier in 2010.

At these price levels and current profitability, the stock is returning a solid gross dividend of over 8.5%.

Look to buy on further weakness if already on your radar for a good steady income.


Disclosure: I own GFF shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Price Alert

Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor


Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd
Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum
Download GFF company Reports

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A     Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011

Thursday, June 10, 2010

NZX's Top 10 Dividend Returns

It is hard to get good returns from term investments and the property market at the moment with around a 3.5% real return from the former and similarly low results from investment properties, if you bought a house over the last 10 years.

The New Zealand Stockmarket has some good returns on selected stocks many are getting close to a 10% gross return. With this in mind lets take a look at the 10 best dividend players listed on the NZX.

Figures are gleaned from the NZX website and are based on figures calculated from market prices as of close of market on 9 June 2010. The gross returns are based on past profit performance.


The Top Ten

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZ] - 13.26%

Steel & Tube Holdings [STU.NZ] - 11.92%

Kiwi Income Property Ltd [KIP.NZ] - 9.92%

Vector Ltd [VCT.NZ] - 9.35%

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings [HLG.NZ] - 9.22%

Telstra Corp [TLS.NZ] - 9.08%

Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] - 8.41%

Air New Zealand [AIR.NZ] - 8.28%

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZ] - 7.82%

Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] - 7.76%


While not guaranteed returns - the likes of TEL, TLS, KIP & AIR dividends will be under future pressure - even the minimum return from RBDs 7.76% is nearly twice the return of term investments and investment property.

Good to see I own 5 out of the top 10.

Disclosure I own FRE, GFF, HLG, KIP, STU in the Share Investor Portfolio


Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum




Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions)Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $33.50
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c Share Investor 2010




Friday, March 26, 2010

Long Term View: Goodman Fielder Ltd



In this series of posts I am going to be looking at stocks listed on the NZX in relation to their returns to shareholders over the life of their listing -what shareholders would now see in their back pockets if they had invested in the company IPO.

The calculation of returns includes dividends and tax credits.

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZ] has been OK to its shareholders in terms of returns since its IPO in December 2005 at $NZ2.13 . With $NZ 49 cents in net dividends (see chart above) paid and another 20% average of that figure gained for those eligible for associated tax credits (GFF have never had full tax credits), a slightly less than 30% return (see chart below for the share price percentage gain against the average of all NZX indexes) and over the 4.3 year listing an approximate annual net return of just under 7%.

This is approximately double the return compared to the average of all NZX indexes.



Disclosure I own GFF shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Long Term View Series

Auckland International Airport
Air New Zealand
AMP Ltd
Briscoe Group Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd
Delegats Group Ltd
EBOS Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Appliances
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Freightways Ltd
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Hellaby Holdings Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Metlifecare Ltd
New Zealand Refining Ltd
Port Of Tauranga Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Sanford Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky Network Television Ltd
Telecom NZ Ltd
Telstra Corp Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd

Goodman Fielder @ Share Investor

Goodman Fielder turning on the DRIP
Goodman Fielder to improve bottom line in 2009
Why did you buy that stock? Goodman Fielder
Goodman Fielder hit by high commodity prices
Goodman Fielder a Hedge against an economic slump
Goodman Fielder pie gets bigger

Discuss GFF @ Share Investor Forum

Download GFF company Reports

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A     Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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