Share Price Alert: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd 5

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] is a stock that I haven't written much about for about 1 year apart from the stock picks series.

I re-mention it again because of a question I was asked 2 days ago. Is there a stock I would still buy to get a good return and that would provide capital growth.

My answer? Fisher & Paykel.

It is a stock that is still WAY under-priced and I last picked it at its all-time low of $1.85  in August of 2012 and it remains a bargain (keep in mind I have 20000, last bought in January 2012 )which I personally would buy all the way up to 3 dollars even. 

FPH is a well managed company with a good history of increasing profits and revenue based on their manufacture and sale of high end, well sought after medical products that have high margins and a reputation for cutting edge technology which more often than not beats its competition.

The only problem, if there is one, is that much of their business is done in US dollars and due to a weak US buck profits repatriated back to head office in New Zealand have been mostly static over the last 4 years and that will grow marginally in 2013.

The currency affect will always be there so investors just have to deal with this. The company have forward hedging in place this year any weakness expect a currency gain .

Revenue and profits have grown over the years and their new products, especially their sleep apnea range has a good foot in the door in an ever increasing American market with overweight patients knocking on their doctors doors for help. This will clearly increase revenues in the near and long-term future.

The share price has been trading in a tight range over the last 6 weeks between $2.50-$2.70 but has traded as low as $2.35 in February then briefly trading at $2.60 in December then all the way down to $1.85 in the aforementioned all-time low.

You maybe lucky and get it around $2.58 but I am picking a rise come this reporting season, (announced late May 2013), announced by the company itself  and tip a further rise.

I would buy now.


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

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Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports


Share Price Alert Series

Contact Energy Ltd 9

Contact Energy Ltd 8

Contact Energy Ltd 7

Contact Energy Ltd 6

Fletcher Building Ltd 5 
Auckland International Airport Ltd 
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2
Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
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NZ Refining Ltd
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Share Price Alert: Briscoe Group Ltd

BGR 10 Year Chart

Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR.NZX] had an excellent 4th quarter sales result out on Thursday and sales for that quarter were up by almost double digit levels and profit for the 2012 full year, which is out in March, is set to be up by around 25%.

Clearly this is significant news and had an immediate impact on the share price taking it from $1.42 pre announcement to $1.50. The share price gave back 5c today to close at $1.45.

While the current share price is at 4 year highs not seen since late 2007, the stock is still at an attractive yield of over 9% gross, the company has no debt and $60-70 million cash in the bank and having a profit upgrade while other retailers, like The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX], are suffering downgrades surely makes this retailer an exceptional one and the best operated listed retailer in New Zealand.

You can see in the 10 year chart above that this has not been a stock to buy for capital appreciation, reaching a high of over $2.75 nearly 10 years ago and never reaching even close to that ever since but it is well off its 2009 lows of just under 60c, so you would be buying at close to 3 year highs.

There could be pressure in the coming year on BGR's margins from its desperate competition but as I said above it is in good shape and I would buy at these levels as a yield play.

Buy on weakness if possible.

Further Share Price Alerts 

Disc: I own BGR shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Briscoe Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss BGR @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

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Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 5

PPL 1 Year Chart

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] shares have had a dire past 12 months, dropping from $1.65 in February 2011, hitting an all-time low of 58c in December and finishing up 7% to finish trading at 75c yesterday on news that the company are putting their UK division into voluntary administration.

This is very good news for the company after 11 million or so in costs is stripped out of the company for the restructure.

This is going to have a positive impact on the PPL share price.

I think there could be some more share price weakness when the 1st half result is out in March because it will be a big loss so patience again will be the key to getting a better deal here.

Of course the fortunes for the company will be better without the ongoing losses from the UK division and that will be cemented if their remaining Australasian stores start to perform better. 


A bigger boost will come if dividends are reinstated. I doubt whether this will happen in the half-year result out in March and is more likely to come in the result out in October.


As I said above, be patient , the rise yesterday was on tiny volume so there will be more volatility in share price until some positive financial news comes out.


Good luck.


Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Price Alert Series

Contact Energy Ltd 6
Fletcher Building Ltd 5
Auckland International Airport Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2
Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


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Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

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Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6

The Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX] share price has bounced around like a cheap K'Rd hooker for the last 5 months and yesterday reached a 5 month low of $4.88.

The CEN share price had support and these levels 5 months ago and rose from a 52 week low of $4.82 on August 9 to $5.50 on the 22 September 2011. An approximate 14% rise. Well, over almost over the same time-frame the share price has done almost the mirror opposite going from $5.52 on 2 December 2011 to finish at the aforementioned $4.88.

The share price drop of around 13% over the last 6 or so weeks appears to be because the margin the company is getting for retailing their electricity has reached -7% in the month of November. They have increased customer numbers every month since introducing a 22.5% discount for early payment of accounts in August but this has of course led to obvious retail losses. October data indicated a-2% retail margin.

December operational data is out next week so it will be interesting to see which way the margin falls for this period.

The company is doing OK in terms of generation volumes and prices received for that generation so I see the share price fall as a little overdone.

The current share price is good value for this company and anything around these levels is a good buy.



Share Price Alert Series

Fletcher Building Ltd 5
Auckland International Airport Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2
Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd
 

Contact Energy @ Share Investor

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Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download CEN Company Reports
 



c Share Investor 2012

Share Price Alert: Fletcher Building Ltd 5

1 year FBU Chart

Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] shares are showing more weakness as the New Zealand economy limps on and the Christchurch earthquakes continue and hold up that city's rebuild (see FBU 1 year chart above) and they have gone below late Novermber 2011 levels since the last FBU Share Price Alert.

FBU shares have dropped by approximately 40% since a late April 2011 high of just a tick over $9.50 and even more interestingly are at close to lows of just over 5 bucks (see 4 year FBU chart below) reached at the height of the Global Financial Crises back in February 2009.

 FBU 4 Year Chart

While the economy is uncertain the outlook for it is probably a little better than it was 3 years ago yet the share price has been given a beating in a overall market that has been flat in New Zealand.

I still think there will be further weakness in this share as the earthquakes continue to delay a rebuild but most of the bad news has already been factored into the share price and further falls would be the market overreacting to this delay.

Look for some good support at the $5.20 - $5.30 level for this now oversold stock. It is returning a near 7% gross dividend at these price levels and this is clearly an attractive income as well as a good capital gain play as the share price recovers with the first notice of a definite rebuild.

Go well Christchurch.

Disc I own FBU shares in the Share Investor Portfolio .


Share Price Alert Series

Auckland International Airport Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2
Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

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Fletcher Building: All eggs in one basket make for big risk
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Hugh Fletcher: Silver spoon no recipe for success
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Discuss Fletcher Building @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download FBU Company Reports




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c Share Investor 2012

Share Price Alert: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2

Welcome to 2012 Share Investor Blog readers. I hope it is a prosperous - oh OK and a happy one too.

Lets get back to business!

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX] had a very negative trading update out right at the arse end of 2012 -great to bury news at this time of year. This is after 2 years of apparent revenue and store growth and comes just two years after their IPO.

I have been skeptical of the sustainability of the growth of the company for the last 2 years as growth was pinned mostly on the opening of more stores and an unsustainable growth of same stores sales based on highly seasonal and constant sales promotions of merchandise.

To top this off competitors are nipping at Kathmandu's expensively decked out heels with both Jan Cameron's Macpac and FCO Fishing Camping Outdoors taking market share off the outdoor retail darling.

Cameron made a move to take a stake in Macpac in mid 2011 to compete head to head with KMD and it hasn't taken long for Macpac to make its mark given Jan's knowledge of the market, her retail experience and her intimate knowledge of how Kathmandu is run.

KMD shares took a 25% hit down to $1.64 on the trading update and recovered to close at $1.72 for the year. This is down from an IPO price of just over 2 bucks just over 2 years ago.

In a previous Share Price Alert for KMD back in May 2011 I warned that the share price was overvalued due to overly exuberant investor optimism which was based on management hype.

I picked this company as a buy in 2010 at under $1.50 in Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks because I thought the IPO price was too high and expectations by management similarly optimistic but I would now have to lower my sights to reflect the higher impact from competition, especially from Macpac.

The company is still a worthy one but at a far lower price than its IPO valuation. I would therefore be happier with a valuation of $1.05c given the poor outlook for retail (for the 3rd year in a row) in general for 2012 and lower if the company does not respond well to all the negative impacts it will face this year.

Happy New Year current KMD investors and an even happier one to those of you who might get this share at half its IPO value.

Share Price Alert Series



Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Jan Cameron makes her move on Kathmandu
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Kathmandu Holdings: Profit Upgrade lacks accurate comparison
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd: The First Year
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd: 2010 full year profit analysis
Chart of the Day: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings: Market Update Misleads
Kathmandu's 2011 Results Under Pressure from Jan Cameron
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Kathmandu IPO: Jan Cameron lands a blow to IPO
Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
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Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
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Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus
KMD Investor Presentation to Macquarie

Discuss Kathmandu @ Share Investor Forum

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c Share Investor 2011