Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 5

PPL 1 Year Chart

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] shares have had a dire past 12 months, dropping from $1.65 in February 2011, hitting an all-time low of 58c in December and finishing up 7% to finish trading at 75c yesterday on news that the company are putting their UK division into voluntary administration.

This is very good news for the company after 11 million or so in costs is stripped out of the company for the restructure.

This is going to have a positive impact on the PPL share price.

I think there could be some more share price weakness when the 1st half result is out in March because it will be a big loss so patience again will be the key to getting a better deal here.

Of course the fortunes for the company will be better without the ongoing losses from the UK division and that will be cemented if their remaining Australasian stores start to perform better. 


A bigger boost will come if dividends are reinstated. I doubt whether this will happen in the half-year result out in March and is more likely to come in the result out in October.


As I said above, be patient , the rise yesterday was on tiny volume so there will be more volatility in share price until some positive financial news comes out.


Good luck.


Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


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Pumpkin Patch Ltd: UK Store closure better late than never

PPL Store, Metrocentre Gateshead, UK

News out yesterday that Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] 36 UK stores are to be put into voluntary administration is no surprise to most PPL watchers but is a surprise to some, like me, who think it should have been done 24 months ago when the writing was clearly on the wall. Management have taken too long to make a decision. Curiously the Ireland operation will continue to operate - how strange.

Apparently it is up to the receivers what happens to the stores now but it isnt clear just what that is yet.


Neil Cowie, Pumpkin Patch Group’s CEO:

"Cowie added “As part of the administration process we are effectively handing over the day to day control of the UK subsidiary to the administrators. As such we cannot pre-empt what actions the administrators may take in the coming days and weeks. However we anticipate that if they cannot find any alternative options some or all of the UK stores will be closed.

Cowie continued “We are confident that there is a place in the UK market for our brands. This is supported by our fast growing UK online operation and the fact that 750,000 customers shopped at our UK stores over the last 18 months. In fact the review highlighted a number of interesting opportunities for Pumpkin Patch and Charlie & Me in the UK and we will be exploring these over the coming months".

Does that mean the stores can continue as Pumpkin stores but the brand licensed to a new owner? That is one scenario but we will have to stand-by to find out.

The ditching of the UK business will of course cost more shareholder money - around 11 million in cash off the first half result coming up in March - but the news is positive given ongoing costs of this turkey will be roasted and over with once the UK business is cut off from the parent balance sheet.

Along with their disastrous foray into the United States, which ended in 2010, Pumpkin Patch management have buried around 50 - 60 million in cash in a hole in the garden somewhere and some dog has dug it up never to return it. Zip, nil, nada, GONE!

We must move on though it is only money after all (stop rolling your eyeballs) and look at what us shareholders still have left. 195 odd stores in New Zealand and Australia (a handful in one of the PIIGS, Ireland) and a good brand slightly dented by a tired image and poor supply chain.

The retail outlook in Australasia doesn't look too cute though but it will see a recovery over the next few years and a slimmed down PPL will be ready to do what it does best. Sell its well known well-loved clothes and brand to the public.

Lets hope we can ditch the few remaining directors and management that have made the last 5 years a pain in the backside.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

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Pumpkin Patch Ltd: Management need to walk

I have been a long suffering Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] for 5 years and the losses to the portfolio have been significant in terms of this share.

The latest bad news and profit downgrade out yesterday has got me thinking about the future of this share in the Share Investor Portfolio, and the future for the company under present management.

Lets go back over the last 5 years and see how the company has progressed.

Revenue for the patch has gone from $280 million and $24.6 million profit in 2005 to $381 million revenue and $25.5 million profit in 2010. It hasn't been a straightline from 2005 - 201o but patchy progress with big dips in profit between those years.

The entry of the company into the United States in 2005 was done slowly and they tested the market but clearly mistakes were made along the way as they continued to roll out US stores even though they never really fired. In 2009 the company made a decision to abandon 20 or so US stores that were bleeding red ink the most and held onto around 15 that they saw as promising. Over the last 2 years the company even opened an additional 5 stores in that market!

As we know yesterday the pumpkin pulled the plug on the remaining US stores with a cost of some $11 million, which takes the combined cost of entry into the US market of close to $50 million. This excludes lost opportunity costs.

Now I wasn't against expansion into this market and seemed very bullish about the long term prospects for the company back in 2008 but much water, poor decisions, and 50 million bucks has passed under the bridge since then so you can excuse me if my mind has changed somewhat.

The expansion was clearly executed poorly.

Yes, retailing has been suffering globally over the last 3 years, especially in the United States but management should have seen the writing on the wall after 3 years of being in the states in 2009 and pulled the plug back then. It defies belief to think that they were still confident that the company could make a go of it and took a further 2 years to come to yesterdays conclusion.

Management that made decisions to enter the US and stay there while sustaining these big losses are still at the helm and shareholders should be asking whether they should still be there given they have problems in the United Kingdom with stores having been there for the best part of a decade and yet to turn a profit yet management are bullish about being in this market:

"The United Kingdom and the recently opened Ireland stores remain an important part of the Company’s long term growth strategies. The plans being developed for the United Kingdom will enhance overall short term earnings performances and provide a stronger and more sustainable platform on which to implement future growth strategies".

I am picking that UK stores will be closed sometime in the future, they should be, they are losing shareholder money, but management still see fit to continue their failing experiment.

Ironically the only people losing their jobs are some at head office in Auckland and direct store management and workers on the ground in the United States and management have commented on this in yesterdays release:

“We have always prided ourselves of the closeness of our teams that operate across the business. While the decisions we have made today are necessary we cannot overlook the fact that a large number of our team members will be impacted, with many being long serving employees who have contributed to the success of Pumpkin Patch over the years. We will of course be doing everything we can to help them and the rest of the team during this time. We would like to thank all of the team for their continued support and enthusiasm for the brand”.

I would like to see a board replacement and the resignation of key directors including CEO Maurice Prendergast. Their expansion plans have failed dsmally and have cost investors hundreds of millions in lost share value and close to $50 million off the bottomline.

Nothing personal, its just business.

Disc I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

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c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] shares really got another good arse caning yesterday when its share price dropped another 6c to close at a 52 week low of $1.31.

The principle reason for this was a net profit result out yesterday that was down 44% on last years result.

Of course the market knew of this back in January when a profit downgrade was announced to the market so the result seemed to be a surprise to some.

PPL shares have lost approx 30c this year so far and since and since an April 2010 high of $2.30 they have shed more than 40% of their value.

This presents an opportunity to buy PPL on the cheapish side.

I would be patient though, because management don't seem very clear about the future of the company (commentary in the profit release was confusing to me) and its trading proposition over the calendar year and further pressure is likely to come over the rest of 2011 as people close their wallets and head for cheaper less brand oriented fare.

This will not last however, PPL is a good brand and once the economy gets going again - whenever that is - we will see this company doing better as mums start to look for brands again.

Be patient and look for further weakness to buy.


Disc I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] has been out with a profit downgrade this morning and this has seriously affected its share price, it has dropped by more than 9.5% or 15c at time of writing to be trading at $1.42.

There is an overall weakness in retailing stocks at present and just yesterday Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] came out with its own profit downgrade.

The Pumpkins profit levels have been up and down over the last 2-3 years after spending most of its listed life rising and the share price has reflected that.

Most recently it has taken hits from failed expansions into the UK and the USA but now its Australasian units have performed badly for the first time, indicating perhaps something more serious at play.

The company still lacks solid management but they have removed Greg Muir who cost the company millions through their failed expansion outlined above.

The company still has a core of loyal followers and a very strong brand and is well placed to ride out these tough times.

This is a good opportunity to buy on the way down.

I fear though there will be more bad news to come so be patient.


Disclosure: I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Stock of the Week: Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] shares have taken a dive over the last 2 weeks.

From $2.00 back on November 22 and off a 52 week high of $2.32 in mid April the share price closed at $1.71 yesterday. (see 2 month chart above) This is a substantial 15% fall.

The only significant news that could have impacted the share price is the resignation of Chairman Greg Muir and the sale of a 1% shareholding by Onepath on November 30. This partial sale of a round a 8% overall holding would have been made due to profit taking on a share price that has recovered substantially over the last 2 years. (see 2 year chart below)

The full year 2010 profit out late September was exceptionally good when the dire economy is taken into account but perhaps the uncertain outlook from management didn't fire the buyers of this stock.

Whatever explanation for the drop this provides a good opportunity for long term investors to put this stock on their watchlist for appraisal for their own portfolios.

Buy on further weakness if you already had this company in your sights.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


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VIDEO INTERVIEW: Pumpkin Patch CFO Matthew Washington

Source: TVNZ

An interview with Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] CFO Matthew Washington, after yesterday's 2010 Full Year Profit release.

Of particular interest is news that the company look to be opening 22 new stores over the coming year and a focus on a new brand, Charlie and Me, a stand alone store that will sell a products that Pumpkin Patch stores to not currently sell - i.e: cheaper children's clothing.

Matthew sounds just a touch bullish here. Wish I could share his enthusiasm on where retailing is going over the next year or two.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


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c Share Investor 2010

Pumpkin Patch Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis.

To those at Lynfield College currently reading this today, you might want to check out the updated links below this post for more on PPL. You can also download PPL company reports for free from here.

The Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] Full Year 2010 Net profit after tax up 76% to $25.5 million. It compares to the 2009 Full Year Profit of $14.7 million.

The selling of 20 loss-making stores in the USA along with an improvement in operations there, in the United Kingdom and a relatively flat result in Australasia have contributed to the result.

Repayment of a large amount of debt has also been a key factor in bottomline profit.

The worrying factor is that revenues are down by 11% but some of that can be put down to the closure of the North American stores.

A disappointment to me is that head office costs have remained similar to last year - an effort could have been made to reduce costs during this recession. Likewise the higher dividend, this should have been retained for future growth.

Key Points

- Net profit after tax up 76% to $25.5m
- Net profit after tax (from continuing activities) up 38%
- Total revenue of $382.0m was down 11%
- Total dividend for the year up 27% to 9.50 cents per share
- Improved EBIT margins across all retail markets
- Launch of the new brand Charlie & Me
- Entry into 4 new Wholesale markets


Forecasts by management for 2011 have been understandably sketchy - few NZX listed companies are sure what 2011 will bring - but the indications from management assure shareholders that they are "well placed" if trading conditions improve.

I would imagine the struggle will continue in North America and the United Kingdom and there will be further negative impacts for the Australasian part of the business during 2011, depending on the impact of interest rates on the discretionary spending of Pumpkin Patch's target customer - the young middle-class family.


Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

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c Share Investor 2010