Share Investor: Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 3

Thursday, June 9, 2011

Share Price Alert: Goodman Fielder Ltd 3

Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF.NZX]is not one of my better investments. It has returned roughly zilch in the 5 years I have held it.

Never mind, this piece isn't about my poor investment choices but about timing your purchase at the right price.

An opportunity to buy has arisen again since a profit warning in April and a prior share price alert for this stock at $1.44. The share price has retreated since then by 18c or just below 15% to close at $1.26 yesterday. This is the 52 week low. A high of 2 bucks back in November 2010 shows how much value the company has lost in just 9 months.

The share price was last at these levels back in March 2009.

Profit has been impaired by higher commodity prices and unfavourable exchange rates - a common theme for this company for the last few years - and management have seen fit to move prices for their brands higher to recover those increased costs but too late to recover for the full year outlook.

The appointment of a new CEO on June 1 with a very generous and restrictive remuneration package and a lacklustre business history hasn't helped either.

Consumer pressure on price is going to make it hard going for the company to recover these costs as long as the current recession bites and consumers are tending to settle for non brand goods instead of buying some of the pricier brands that GFF offers.

All is not lost though, these Goodman brands are some of the best in the business, are staples on the family table and will continue to be sold and increase in sales when the economy returns to some sort of "normality".

The current share price returns a gross dividend of slightly over 11%, which is clearly a very attractive income given term investment rates of less than half this.

I am picking more softness in this share though and if you have been looking to buy this stock anyway patience is going to get it into your portfolio for less than the current share price.

Share Price Alert Series