Sunday, May 18, 2008

Restaurant Brand's gives KFC a push

It will seem strange to regular readers of this blog for me to be praising Restaurant Brand's [RBD] management but after some reasonable on site research of one of the company's brands, KFC, I do believe they might have got one aspect of the company almost right.

Restaurant Brands is the franchisee operator of KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks and has had a very chequered operating past since listing in 1997. Sales have been declining, levels of service poor and menu and food quality dubious at the best of times. Profit and revenue have also consistently fallen in the last decade as a result of the poor management.

There has been a 2 year focus on KFC to resurrect the company's only profit maker. Millions have been spent to remodel the 89 store chain with new menu items to give the image of KFC and the Colonel's old deep fried chicken a healthier look and judging by my own survey of a couple of Auckland's North Shore stores, Takapuna and Browns Bay, the extensive rejig of the menu seems to be keeping declining customer numbers at an even keel.

The choice of salads, burger meals, various new types of snack foods and smaller chicken pieces from the old KFC menu make for more choices for customers but management risk diversifying too much and alienating their core customer (thats me folks) who still comes for the fried chicken, if they go further.

Stick to what you know guys and don't try to reinvent too much. McDonalds have just successfully redefined their menu in a healthier way, while adding a large chicken menu to their roster and too many similarities between the 2 chains chicken products should be avoided at all costs. KFC's main point of difference, and it has been that way for nearly 40 years in New Zealand, is their 11 herbs and spices recipe. Don't kill the very chicken that lays the golden stuff !

Related Share Investor reading

McDonalds playing chicken with KFC
Restaurant Brand's Pizza Hut faces increasing competition
RBD sales analysis
RBD saga continues: CEO leaves
The secret recipe is out
2007 FY profit analysis
Delivering increased profit in October 2007
No reason for optimism in latest sales figures

Russel Creedy, who was appointed as CEO in September 2007, has made some good moves since his appointment and the continued development of KFC from previous management head Vicki Salmon has stemmed the previous hemorrhaging of the KFC unit.

What Creedy must do now though is consolidate his relative success at KFC and sell the loss making Pizza Hut New Zealand while there is someone willing to buy it.

Starbucks, while still growing revenue, mostly from inflation, is nonetheless still losing money overall and a sale back to the franchisor would be the best for all participants.

RBD management don't have the depth of expertise to manage 3 brands to the maximum benefit of their shareholders, and as proven ever so slightly so far, their concentration of efforts seems to be paying off at KFC.

Related links

RBD New Zealand
KFC NZ
Yum ! RBD's franchisor

Share Investor Sites

Share Investor Business News- Get more business news
Share Investor Stockmarket forum -Discuss this topic further

c Share Investor 2008

Saturday, May 17, 2008

STUFF: Fairfax poll & Political Animal commentary


The latest fairfax political poll continues the trend from last year where National started to show a wide gap. This gap has not only continued but has got wider as time goes on.

It is clear to voters, Labour or National, that voters want their money back, in the form of personal tax cuts. Not State sanctioned welfare like working for families or one off dollops from those that earn the money to those that haven't. They simply want their own cash back in the hand on a weekly basis, without state apron strings involved or mixed up in loony taxpayer subsidised "savings" schemes like Kiwi saver.


The billion dollar plus price tag for a train set and not dividends in their pockets, seems to be yet another motivator for long suffering middleclass taxpayers to get on track to get back what they deserve.


Their own moola!



Political Animal Reading



Michael Cullen speaks with forked tongue
Pointing fingers in the playground
At least Robin Hood was honest
The black economy makes sense
Labour's State Control out of control




Stuff poll and commentary


National is on track for a landslide election win with a 27-point poll lead over Labour.


On today's Fairfax Media poll, Labour faces an election night rout that would oust 14 sitting MPs and deliver National a 13-seat majority.


Finance Minister Michael Cullen is now under huge pressure to deliver an election-winning Budget next week or face the backlash from voters seeking relief from rising pressure on household budgets.


But on today's result, voters have already written Labour off and it may take more than the modest tax cuts signaled by Dr Cullen to turn that around.


The Nielsen poll for Fairfax newspapers suggests that not just the size but the timing of any tax cuts could be critical, with voters saying they want relief now, even if that puts pressure on interest rates.


Just over half of those questioned - 51 per cent - don't want to wait for tax cuts, even if that means interest and mortgage rates stay higher for longer.


It suggests that Dr Cullen's argument that early and sizeable tax cuts will only push up interest rates and delay relief for heavily mortgaged households does not wash with voters.


Kiwibank cut its two-year fixed-term home loan rate to 8.99 per cent yesterday and other banks are expected to follow in anticipation of a cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank.


Today's poll will send panic through Labour ranks. National's lead is a turnaround from polls which had Labour closing the gap - the previous Fairfax poll had National and Labour 18 points apart.


National Party leader John Key said yesterday that voters were sick of Labour.

"They're tired of the fact that they're so out of touch with issues that concern them in their daily life."


National would fight the election on tax cuts, which would be a defining difference between the two parties.


"All the messages that Labour has given off in the last two months is that tax cuts will be relatively small."


Prime Minister Helen Clark, who is in South Korea, could not be contacted for comment.


The poll put the Greens on 6 per cent - safely above the 5 per cent threshold, where they were joined by NZ First on 5 per cent.


That could put NZ First leader Winston Peters back at centre-stage in any post-election deals, though on current numbers National could easily govern alone.


The poll questioned 1091 voters between Wednesday May 7 and Tuesday this week and has a margin of error of 3 per cent.



Discuss Politics

New Zealand Budget






c Political Animal 2008



Friday, May 16, 2008

Something in the State of New Zealand is rotten

Just when you thought things couldn't get worse for the New Zealand Labour Party, along comes the scandal to beat all scandals, one of Helen Clark's ex employees, Maryanne Thompson, is tarred with the corruption brush and Ministers knowing this chose not to disclose and are now not talking to the media.

Lets go back a bit though.

In the last few weeks we have had a major u turn on the nonsense "climate change" policy, Michael Cullen's failed 9 year fiscal policy continuing to have a dire economic fallout, Phillip Field's corruption trial finally given the go ahead after a prior 2005 election cover up by the Labour Party, the massive hypocrisy of Auckland Airport being bared from a sale but Vector assets sold to our new friends in China, revelations that Alexandra school children were being taught in shipping containers, Michael Cullen caught out lying about the cost of "kiwi rail", the worst economic figures in generations; 29000 less people working and fatal retail sales and a list as long as your arm of ministerial gaffs and malfeasant behavior.

The latest scandal is fraught with much speculation but this is clear. Ministers from the Labour cabinet are involved and knew what was going on with Maryanne Thompson.

Thompson fudged her credentials, gave relatives quick shift through our immigration department to illegally obtain New Zealand residence and favoured friends and family in rewarding large contracts, as the taxpayer money slipped through her fingers like so much confetti .

Trevor Mallard was the Minister responsible at the time and there are rumours that he was aware of the shady business of Thompson and her co-workers. He was aware of Phillip Field and his pre 2005 Election corruption and kept it mum, so why would this case be any different.

Labour voters really cant have alot of confidence in their political masters, the Labour Party.

Their modus operandi is secretive and corrupt. A party that has had secret donations made from Owen Glen, a wealthy billionaire, has stolen taxpayer money to buy the 2005 election, has done their best to stop opposition to the 2008 election by passing the fascist Electoral Finance Act and has had their leader, Helen Clark been caught out lying several times and simply cannot be trusted.

The latest polls reflect that Labour is set for one of the biggest losses in their party history but is only going to be tempered by the large amount of working New Zealander's taxes that are going to be handed out to buy the votes of those too selfish to think of others or simply ignorant of the real state of the nation and how much Helen Clark and her merry bunch of socialist misfits have contributed to it.

We the voter shouldn't forget the Watergate scandal from the 1970s, that brought down the Nixon Government. It was predicated by a break in and a cover up of that break in. Much worse has happened during the 9 years of labour.

Where are our Woodward and Bernstein when we need them?

Discuss Politics
New Zealand Budget

c Political Animal 2008

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Stick to what you know

One thing alot of people do in life,especially when they get bored, are particularly ambitious(or turn 40!) is to go outside one's comfort zone to challenge their personal or professional skills, this can be quite rewarding in many ways, a sense of achievement comes from trying new things and the risk of failure can often be forgotten in the heat of excitement.

While this approach to life in general is much to be admired, this sort of approach to investing is probably one of the easiest ways to lose your hard earned bucks.

When deciding to buy a business or part of a business, as stocks are, one of the most important aspects you must consider is if you understand what it is the company does and how it does it.

Look for either a good business that you yourself may have industry experience in or is simple enough to understand with a minimum of interpretation of company reports.

Food companies, retailing, steel making and strong brands like, Coca Cola and McDonald's are easily understood even by the most green of investors.

This basic investment tenant can also be applied to the management of any business or enterprise. Watch closely at management of any company who also want to go out of their comfort zone or level of experience and therefore competence.

A successful toilet paper company that suddenly decides to use their excellent profits to expand into the new car business is one that you don't want to invest in and if you are already invested you should roll yourself right out of there.

Coca Cola tried to mess with the formula to their main product in 1985, they didn't need to, they were still number one, but the CEO decided to go outside his level of expertise and change their simple successful 100 year old product. It would have meant the end of the company had the decision to recall the old formula not been made.

The formula of sticking to what you know clearly goes across all asset classes as well.

Be it bonds, of either the Sub-prime or "prime" variety, stocks, real estate, gold, oil, pork bellies or carbon trading, you must stick to what you know first. If you want to get into something you don't know, either you don't, or you do your homework and become as competent as you can.

It is very easy to look at glowing company reports, prospectus' or advisor recommendations of companies but when those businesses are more complex than a real estate agent's patter on explaining why the view in the advertising looks nothing like the view from the house itself, don't go along with the hype.

K.I.S.S. keep it simple stupid!

Who in their right mind would get into a company like Blue Chip New Zealand, their company was structured like a pyramid within a maze, but people looked past the complexity and "invested" anyway.

While of course good management, good company history and growing revenue and profit are also essential ingredients in the investing cake, removing complexity from the mix is going to make one's decision a more profitable one in the long run.

Understanding a business or investment is a really good start along the road of success and the new challenges will lie in continuing to keep the business/investment simple. Keep the challenges for the weekend and bungee jumping in Queenstown.


Share Investor Sites

Share Investor Business News- Get more business news
Share Investor Stockmarket forum -Discuss this topic further


c Share Investor 2008

Monday, May 12, 2008

History of Warehouse takeover players indicates a long winding road

With The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZX] shares taking a dive over the last week or so because of their weak sales data and grim outlook in the medium term, the attractiveness to speculators wanting to get an even better slice of the company and flog it off to Woolworths Australia [WOW:ASX]-I don't think Foodstuffs are in the game because of their shallow pockets-is an opportunity going begging for.

Given that the Overseas Investment Office has already given its approval for Woolworths OZ to acquire the owner of the Red Sheds the only stumbling block for the big W will be for them to lose their defence of an appeal by the seriously malfeasant Commerce Commission(CC), who want to put the brakes on any possible deal to stitch up The Warehouse with Foodstuffs or Woolworths OZ.




The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Much of the Commission's case relies on the potential of The Warehouse Extra to provide competition to the current "duopoly", stunningly a duopoly that the Commerce Commission itself voted for when it initially allowed Progressive to merge Foodtown's brands with Woolworths NZ in 2002. Woolworths Australia then bought that merged entity in 2005.


Dr Farmer said the High Court at Wellington was wrong in fact when it concluded it was unlikely the Extra store concept would be expanded and even if it did succeed it was unlikely to exert competitive pressure.

"It would be ironic that the firm, which has the potential to expand and which is already exerting pressure on the incumbents, should be able to be the subject of acquisition by one or other of those incumbents, thereby subjecting consumers once again to the duopoly," Dr Farmer said.

James Farmer QC April 30 2008.


Ironic indeed Dr Farmer, have you read your client's former cases that initially advocated a duopoly in 2002?

The Warehouse itself has stated that the Extra format hasn't achieved the potential that they thought it would and it seems unlikely that they will expand the current 3 stores to the 15 planned ones.

Farmer then spent much time grasping at straws by arguing over what the term"likely"might mean.

There is fierce competition for market share in the supermarket sector though and if you look at the trail of litigation over the Progressive/NZ Woolworths merger of 2002, where an appeal was taken all the way to the Privy Council by Foodstuffs, lost, and then writs and a judicial review taken regarding the Overseas Investment Commission and their decision to allow the merger. The whole process began in May 2001 and was only rectified towards the end of 2002.

As I have indicated in earlier columns, even if the appeal to the High Court is lost by the CC, and I think they will lose-they lost their 2002 case after changing their initial positive stance to allow a merger, due to a small change in competition law- they can still put their tail between their legs and run off to the Supreme Court in Wellington and start yet another appeal. The history of these supermarket players and the Commerce Commission would indicate that the Supreme court is the most likely scenario. In which case any decision, either way, will be closer to the end of 2008.

The Warehouse shares were down 2.8% to NZ$5.20 or 15c on over 1 million shares traded today and any further weakness in share price is an opportunity for a good short to medium term play.


Related Reading

Warehouse takeover battle in court TVNZ
NZ retail duopoly court case begins The Australian
Woolworths still keen on NZ's Warehouse - report Reuters


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data


Related Amazon reading


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c Share Investor 2008 & 2009


Sunday, May 11, 2008

Share Investor News

I am pleased to announce another website from the Share Investor stable.

At Share Investor News ,investors can keep themselves up to date with investment and finance news from the likes of Reuters, BBC Business video, Forbes, NBR.co.nz and more, with much more content to come.

It is all updated live via RSS feeds and of course available from the Share Investor sites links to the left column of this page or by typing www.news.shareinvestorforum.com into your browser.

The news site is part of the coming new permanent home for the Share Investor Forum, www.shareinvestorforum.com, where investors can discuss the minutia of investing to their hearts content.

I hope you find the new news site useful and if you have any suggestions or comment please contact Darren.

c Share Investor 2008

Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]


I initially resisted buying shares in Michael Hill International, [MHI] the operator of approximately 200 Jewelry stores in New Zealand, Australia and Canada because the dividend wasn't big enough.

Buying Michael Hill shares would be contrary to my investing belief that an investment should pay good returns, right from the beginning, when you plunk down those hard earned sheckels.

Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]

I then watched over the years as MHI management continued to have a sustained success in their business and have 20 plus years of good revenue and profit growth behind them.

I then re thunk my position on dividends and returns and decided to look longer term, where I thought Michael Hill's main prospects lie.

Therefore the main reason I bought MHI shares was in the company and its good long-term prospects, 5 years and up. Granted, it is doing well currently but its big future lies in the long-term management and progress of the company for even better investor returns.

Its position in my high dividend portfolio as a "growth stock" marks it out only with Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] in that respect. My portfolio was previously lacking in such growth stocks and it is probably prudent for investors to have one or two in their portfolios.

Good management marks this company out from many others listed on the NZX and as you might know, as a seasoned investor, good management of a company is the most crucial part of a business, save the product or service being sold. Management for me is another key reason for picking Michael Hill. This is embodied in Michael Hill, the man himself, and he has provided a culture where his other managers are able to run the company the way he would want and therefore the transition to another CEO in the future will be relatively easy-another good long-term indicator.

Once again, and it seems to be a recurrant theme that runs through the businesses that I pick to invest in, they are easy to understand. Like the other retailers in my portfolio, Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] Postie Plus Group [PPG] and The Warehouse [WHS] they simply sell goods to the public. Easy peasy.

For me, having Michael Hill has part of my portfolio provides an opportunity for me to participate in a growing business in which the full benefits of that growth, in terms of larger profit , a bigger company and revenue are still many years down the track. Along with excellent management and and easy to understand business any significant dips in share price would be a good opportunity for me to acquire a much larger stake than my current 1000 share holding and I wouldn't hesitate to take that opportunity.


Essential Links

Investor Information


Related articles from Share Investor


MHI has defined growth strategy
MHI profit sparkles




Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions)


Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $32.40
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c Share Investor 2008

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress


Further to the story about Burger Fuel Worldwide[BFW] signing a master franchise deal with a business in Dubai, I mentioned I was going to ask Josef Roberts, Executive director of the company a couple of questions to flesh out the details of the deal to the market and his investors.

He was very accommodating before the July IPO, granting me an email interview about where the company was going, in some detail.


Here were the questions I put to him yesterday


Hi Josef, I hope you are well.

Interesting announcement today re the Dubai franchise deal. It took me by surprise.

On that note, I wonder if you could inform my readers as to some of the finer points of the deal and some of the reasons why you took the business across the other side of the planet.

Assuming you could answer some questions because the market is speculating.


1: why are you going to develop a new overseas market before establishing the current Australian one?

2: Did the Dubai company approach BF or you them?

3: Are the terms of the master franchise similar to that of individual franchisee agreements in New Zealand?

4: What number of outlets do you see in Dubai?

5: Are customers likely to be locals or expat kiwis/Aussies/Brits etc?

6: How will the BF menu be different in such a unique country?

7: What experience does the Dubai company have being a food franchisor?

8 How is Burger Fuel Worldwide going in terms of revenue created for the Franchise company as a whole and are you on track?

9: How has your experience of your company now differ from what you thought it would be when you initially planned this listed franchising model, have things changed considerably?

10: Is Australia proving difficult to crack, given the amount of competition in Sydney?

11: How has the current credit crises affected your business expansion, if at all, and is the associated economic slow down having any affect on store sales?

12: Finally, where do you see Burger Fuel being in 12 months?


I would appreciate your assistance in informing my readers. There is much google interest on our blog every time you guys have a press release and we have had a handful of Dubai hits today, just as a matter of interest.

Regards, Darren



Josef's answer to my questions


Hello Darren

To paraphrase your own comments about BurgerFuel and me – “Go Figure”.

All the best.

All I can say is it would have been nice to hear some detail about the Dubai deal and where his company might be heading and how it was doing.

My questions were really stimulated by the company and its big leap right across to the other side of the world before being properly established outside New Zealand, in their first overseas market, Australia.

I felt that his investors might like to know the finer points of this move.

As I said above, Josef was very accommodating before the Burger Fuel IPO and I was expecting the same sort of candidness as the company progressed.

I realise his curt response maybe motivated by some of my criticism but after all it is only my opinion and therefore his side of the story would at least balance things.

Nevertheless I still wish him and his company well and hope his lovely burgers(minus the bacon) take off in Dubai.



Burger Fuel @ Share Investor Blog

Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary




c Share Investor 2008






The Great Global Warming Swindle[UPDATE]

Prime TV which is part of the Sky TV stable, is going to show the documentary "The Great Global Warming Swindle", the antidote to Al Gore's fictional "The Inconvenient Truth".

The major networks have been bereft of any balls, having had the best part of a year to play TGGWS but news producers have let it slip. TV One played Al Gore's ode to Michael Moore though earlier this year.

Our own Helen Clark and David Parker, Minister of hot air, should clear their schedules to watch, so they can redefine their religious zealotry towards those of us who already know it is one of history's great cons.

The Documentary, from Britain was screened last year to much acclaim.

Prime will show "The Great Global Warming Swindle" Sunday June 1 at 8.30pm.





The great global warming swindle - Part 2
The great global warming swindle - Part 3
The great global warming swindle - Part 4


Related Political Animal reading

Unstoppable global warming
Global Warning: Tax Iceberg Ahead
Kyoto critic comes to town - Sunday Star Times
Carbon Credit trading puts Global markets at extreme risk
Of Tulip Bulbs and Tooth Fairies
Ponder the Maunder - 15 Yr old Kristin Byrne explodes the GW myth

c Political Animal 2008




Sign the anti smacking referendum(UPDATE)

The "anti smacking bill", or repeal of section 59 last year has lead to a petition for a referendum.The referendum has 280,000 signatures and needs 20000 more for a referendum to be held at this years election at the end of 2008. Give Sue Bradford, Helen Clark and her mates a slap in the face!!

Footnote: As of last week this petition fell short of the 280000 signatures by 15000.
There are another 7 weeks or so for those signatures to be collected.

Download and sign the petition here

C Political Animal 2008

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Labour pollaxed by public opinion

Just a commentary about polls and what they might mean.

Now Labour have been trailing National in the polls since around October/November 2007. A perfect storm of sorts hit the lefties then, when their moralistic finger pointing over the Electoral Finance Act and anti smacking law backfired and coincided to piss off even their own deluded voters.

The first big swing to National showed an almost 20 point lead over Labour with a lower polling for John Key as most preferred leader and several polls since then have showed more or less the same results, except John Key is now the most preferred Prime Minister.

There has been one poll that had pegged the National lead back to around 10 points but it is the trend in the polls that needs to be taken into account. The trend is clearly in favour of a National Government, by a country mile.

In the months since, Labour have accepted secret donations, denied their part in rising costs to families and had major parts of state run departments like Education, Health and policing limp from crises to crises.

In addition, last month the private property rights of New Zealand and foreign shareholders in Auckland International Airport were trampled on when retrospective law, which this administration is fond of passing when it suits their socialist agenda, blocked them from selling their shares.

Just yesterday, Labour sunk more than NZ$ 600 million taxpayer dollars, with billions more to come, into an inefficient,loss making railroad company because they think it will buy them votes in November.

Who said our economy was struggling?

These additions to Labour's poor track record are going to will no doubt swing polls even wider. In National's favour.

Even though Labour are going to try and buy the 2008 election, as they did during the 2005 spend-fest, and with stolen taxpayer money no less, it is looking like a right royal massacre for Labour come polling day.

Related Political Animal reading

Labour first to break own Electoral law
Sign the anti smacking petition


c Political Animal 2008

Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]

The series on why I bought a particular stock continues with a big favorite of mine, Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] .It is a particular fav because I see it as New Zealand's best run listed company. Many would disagree with that statement but I would challenge anyone to tell me why this might be a figment of my imagination or at least partly exaggerated, which I am sometimes prone to do.

Related Share Investor reading

Why did you buy that stock series
Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Freightways Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Kiwi Income Property Trust]
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


If you haven't guessed so far dear reader the main reason I bought this stock was the excellent management of the company. Bruce Plested, Executive chairman, and Don Braid, CEO, are masters of their industry and have a clear plan as to where the company is going and how they are going to get there.

To put it bluntly, communication to their employees, customers and investors is sans any bullshit and I like that. They are clear precise managers who achieve company goals with little fuss and fanfare and no excuses if they fail, which they rarely do.

This management style is copied across the countries in which they operate and local managers are able to make their local operations their own, even though they are part of a much larger exercise. Once again this focus on good management is the main reason for company success and the carrot that got me hooked.

In a related matter, I also like the company "culture" that management have fostered in their employees. Respect for employees by management is clearly apparent and this makes for a happy and more productive workforce.

Mainfreight is another easy to understand business, they are a logistics company, that is, they transport freight . Easy. They have a diversified business but have stayed within their area of expertise even when they have expanded in overseas territories.

Other companies that stray way from their core area of business knowledge always come off second best. Try to avoid buying such a company if you can. The risks to your wallet become much higher.

Mainfreight is the third largest holding in my portfolio, in terms of the purchase price,which I may have initially overpaid for, and I have had ownership in the company for just over 2 years now and am still very happy with company performance. I would buy more today at any share price weakness.

In my humble opinion, I believe that Mainfreight would fit the investment criteria of Warren Buffett and if the share price was cheap enough and he knew or cared where New Zealand was, he would drop his ukulele and snap it up in a heartbeat!


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

Download Mainfreight Company Reports


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c Share Investor 2008

Monday, May 5, 2008

Burger Fuel cooks up a Dubai deal


They will be eating Burger Fuel burgers in Dubai soon, thanks to Burger Fuel Worldwide[BFW] management signing a Master franchise agreement with Dubai based Al Khayyat Investment Group Investments LLC - a holding group with diverse business interests ranging from multinational companies, automotive, retail, schooling, leasing and real estate interests.




Related links

Al Khayyat Group
NZX Announcement NBR: Burger Fuel signs franchise deal in Dubai YAHOO:Burger Fuel moves to Dubai
Burgerfuel website


It will be interesting to see the terms of the agreement, presumably it will be similar to the individual franchise agreements operated in New Zealand, Burger Fuel's home. If the Arab franchisees plunck their oil money down and really go for it, then possible investors in Burger Fuel here may get a better picture on how successful the Burger Fuel Franchise operator will fare.


Since the listed company will derive its income from ongoing royalties, currently too small to make any profit on overheads, the development of a larger group of stores will be a good indicator of the company and its long term future.

Personally, I'm still a little skeptical as to why Josef Roberts, executive director of Burger Fuel, and his fellow directors may have leaped so far across the world with their concept before developing it more fully and profitably in Australia.

Two company owned stores in Sydney just isn't a good indicator for future success outside the Australasian market.

I have so many questions about this move I have made a request to Josef ,via email , to flesh out some of the detail of today's announcement. I'm curious as to whether the Dubai company made the first move or if it was Burger Fuel's initiative.

I know there is plenty of interest about this company because every bit of news about Burger Fuel is googled incessantly, this site got alot of BF related traffic today, including a handful from Dubai, possibly kiwi ex pats.

Save for more positive concrete numbers or an indicator that things are improving financially and that the Franchisor business model will work with this type of high end food business, I clearly remain negative on the company when it comes to its present valuation of just under NZ $30 million.

Some questions need to be answered to reassure investors that management are heading in the right direction, given today's surprise announcement.

Hopefully, even though I have been critical of his baby, Josef will return my email. He has been great so far.

Burger Fuel shares were untraded at closing today, which isn't unusual. They last traded April 29 @ 45c.


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c Share Investor 2008




KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight

Micheal Cullen is not Warren Buffett, another individual who has been buying large train sets, like Burlington Northern in the United States. Buffett has bought good assets at rock bottom prices and they are lean and mean operators. This is not likely to happen with the new State run rail company that will no doubt be called KiwiRail.

So ignoring that, and on behalf of the long suffering taxpayer, the Micheal Cullen and Helen Clark twins have just plunked down almost NZ$700 million taxpayer dollars to buy a new train set, with billions more to come to prop up its day to day running, on a business that has never made money.

Govt buys back rail, ferries for $665m
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$665 million buy back
Rail buy-back condemned as 'reckless'
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Commerce Commission needs to derail KiwiRail owner
Cullen Pays 6-fold more than KiwiRail worth


Apart from the stupidity of the transaction,and over inflated purchase price and the immediate increase of about 2000 in state employees in a new government department, one of Labour's main aims is to "get all those trucks off the road".

Just like Air New Zealand [AIR] before them and government departments like KiwiBank, taxpayer funds will be used to subsidise an inefficient and loss making business to compete with private enterprise, the very people who are paying the tax in the first place!

Like myself, you would have to be concerned if you were a shareholder of a company like Mainfreight[MFT] or the owner of a smaller trucking company, already struggling with high diesel prices and government imposed regulation and cost.

Long haul operators like Mainfreight are going to face intense competition from the new State run rail company. Subsidies to business who need goods hauled will give an unfair advantage to the rail operator when competing for business.

Further government "protection" of a State rail system, in the form of "climate change" regulations and/or taxes can't be discounted with the current administration, who have shown that they are prepared to retrospectively pass laws to fit their socialist agenda, regardless of sensible business practices and outcomes.

While Mainfreight have both long and short haul divisions and operate trucks from seaports, airports and rail hubs and therefore may be able to transform their long haul business and capital expenditure to focus on a possible busier short haul business-Labour have a goal of doubling current freight volumes, the cost to do this is clear. It will be large.


"In summary, we do not have a large enough or vibrant enough business sector in New Zealand. Economically, New Zealand has been on a long slow decline relative to other OECD countries for close to forty years, and this decline has accelerated in recent years. Surely with the benefit of hindsight, New Zealand governments can recognise that our productive sector is not performing to the level necessary to ensure this nation’s future health and prosperity.

Right now we need bold new initiatives and inspirational leadership. Other countries have found ways to reverse economic decline, and that has involved low company tax rates as in Singapore and Ireland and a reduction in the weight of compliance costs.

Whatever the outcome, Mainfreight has a determination to remain a New Zealand owned and operated business while continuing to pursue global aspirations".


More and more the New Zealand economy slides down the OECD economic rankings as we milk our productive sector in the hope of remaining a first world country with taxpayer funded hospitals, education and social welfare.

There needs to be a clear understanding that the productive sector is the only means by which a country can prosper – interesting, challenging enterprises earning profits are the mechanism which creates opportunities for people to do well for themselves, the enterprise, and for mankind".
Bruce Plested, Executive Chairmain, Mainfreight annual report 2007

Now Bruce and his mates at Mainfreight are canny operators in logistics and business in general and will probably manage the increased government interference in their business well, but why should they have to?

The uncertainty that today's decision makes for Mainfreight and other logistics operators is only compounded by a lack of any detailed planning before the purchase of the rail assets from its former Australian owner, Toll New Zealand.

There was no business case done before the purchase by the government, as there was no detail over just how much capital expenditure was to be made to justify such a high purchase price for largely obsolete rolling stock.

Operators of long-haul trucking businesses would do well to lobby their local MPs and hassle them about the cost their decision today will impose on their businesses. Short haul logistics company's, while clearly advantaged, would do well to similarly put their MPs against the wall.

Some forget the reason this turkey was sold in the first place, it was losing $NZ1 million 1994 dollars a day and was costing its clients through slow service, strikes, theft and high prices. Toll have done much better running the business and there is no reason to feel complacent about bureaucrats running the company again.

Regardless of the political implications though, the uncertainty to the logistics industry will cost them millions.

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c Share Investor 2008