Showing posts with label commerce commission. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commerce commission. Show all posts

Monday, January 26, 2009

When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?

The length of time that has passed between The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] deciding to drop their "Extra" format stores-the impediment that the Commerce Commission most recently successfully argued in the Court of Appeal was the reason the company couldn't be sold to its two current suitors-doesn't look encouraging for any positive outcome anytime soon.

Just when are they going to make a move?

In January, The Australian reported that both The Warehouse' suitors were "still considering" a purchase of the company .

There are a few reasons why Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] The Warehouse' two suitors, might be delaying or reconsidering a move.

1. the current uncertain economic climate might make a bid less attractive. I would argue that any bidder might be able to turn this to their advantage though by being able to bid lower.

2. capital maybe harder to obtain in order to make a bid.

3. both suitors could be waiting for a decision in the Supreme Court where Woolworths has sought leave to apply to have the Appeal Court decision quashed

4. Waiting for a response from the Commerce Commission to The Warehouse decision to dump their "extra" format stores.

5. A new proposal from founder and majority shareholder Stephen Tindall to take the business private.

The biggest impediment to a quicker sale process is The Commerce Commission's Paula Rebstock and her failure to make a ruling post the Warehouse ditching their Extra format stores in October 2008.

The Extra format stores were the main impediment, from the Commission's point of view, for denying the sale of The Warehouse and now that they have gone a positive announcement in The Warehouse favour on this matter would let the bidding process begin.


Disclosure: I own WHS shares



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data


Related Amazon reading


The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy

The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy by Charles Fishman
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c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Warehouse decision a loser for all

Discuss this company at the Share Investor Forum

In the absence of a detailed summary of the decision out today by the Court of Appeal to stymie a bid for The Warehouse by Foodstuffs or Woolworths Australia, I have to say I am surprised by the decision.

This from Paula Rebstock, Commerce Commission chairman

"New Zealand consumers know that more competition is needed in the supermarket sector. In coming to its decision to decline the acquisition the Commission considered that The Warehouse had already brought important new dimensions to supermarket competition, and potential competition, through its innovative supercentre stores."

What "new dimensions" have the Warehouse brought to Supermarket competition?

Answer? None.

It has 3 "Extra" format stores whose performance thus far has been underwhelming and its potential for the future is in doubt.

The Commerce Commission and Paula Rebstock have made a name for themselves over this appeal and it seems that was all this exercise has been about. Commercial realities have been left in the dust.

Either the legal team for the defence has lost an easily winnable case and or the Court of Appeal Judge is a knuckle dragging, dribble mouthed fool for making such an inconceivably out of touch decision.

Was the Judge off his medication that day?

That is the only conclusion that a sane individual can come to.

The Commerce Commission's legal team had only one string to their bow, the Warehouse Extra stores and their possible beneficial impact on grocery prices but they have no material influence in the supermarket sector and are unlikely to in the future. They have less than .05% of the grocery market.

Rebstock and her Commission have dragged this possible sale saga out for far too long, it has cost the three companies involved, the Kiwi taxpayer, The Warehouse,Foodstuffs and Woolworths shareholders and ultimately the New Zealand consumer.

Economies of scale can be brought to bear if one of the parties bought The Warehouse and that ultimately means cheaper grocery prices.

Unless a likely appeal to the Supreme Court is successful, New Zealand consumers will be the biggest losers.

Warehouse shares were down .60c to NZ$3.22 per share on 4.6 million shares today on the news.


Disclosure I own WHS shares


The Warehouse @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse Court of Appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
Why did you buy that stock?[The Warehouse]
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
Commerce Commission makes a meal of Warehouse takeover
Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in"Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Borders decision an indicator of Warehouse takeover outcome
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data


Related Amazon reading

How Walmart Is Destroying America And The World: And What You Can Do About It

How Walmart Is Destroying America And The World: And What You Can Do About It by Bill Quinn
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c Share Investor 2008 & 2009

Warehouse Court of Appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour

8.58am The Court of Appeal has overturned the High Court's ruling allowing rival grocery firms to bid for The Warehouse[WHS] by Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia.

The Commerce Commission case argued that if either Woolworths or Foodstuffs bought The Warehouse, it would result in a "substantial lessening of competition".

This was after the Commerce Commissions case was defeated in the High Court in 2007 and an appeal against that decision was lodged earlier this year.

Trading in The Warehouse shares was thin yesterday, July 30 (NZ time), and price movement was mildly upwards during intra day trading but finished flat, so no pre announcement indications could be gleaned from the markets.

The sale process began almost 2 years ago but has been stymied by the Commerce Commission due to their contention that a purchase of The Warehouse by either Foodstuffs or Woolworths would impact to the detriment of food consumers. The Warehouse, Foodstuffs and Woolworths all argue that The Warehouse food offerings are not significant or successful enough to warrant a Commerce Commission appeal

It is likely that Foodstuffs, Woolworths and The Warehouse will appeal the Court of Appeal's decision to the Supreme Court in Wellington.


The Warehouse @ Share Investor

Why did you buy that stock?[The Warehouse]
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Disc I own WHS shares


c Share Investor 2008
& Cartoon Emmerson 2008

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Commerce Commission needs to derail KiwiRail owners

When your competitor sets the rules for competition you know there is something horribly askew.

With the buyback of Toll Rail, in the form of KiwiRail, the New Zealand Government, by way of legislation, can pass any sort of tax, competition law or edict, making things difficult for rail's competitors, the trucking industry.

Even before Toll Rail passed into taxpayer hands midnight Tuesday 1 July, a deal had been stitched up to allow free rentals for several years, on freight depots for the trucking division, the only profitable part of Toll's NZ freight business that the NZ government let them keep.

When that was proven too politically volatile for the public to swallow, the check book was pulled out again and NZ$18 million of taxpayer cash was added to the initial purchase price to put Toll's trucking division in a enviable position when compared to its competitors,.

Now the skewing of the fork when it comes to competition in the freight sector continued with an up to 10% increase in road user charges for diesel trucks on Tuesday July 1, the same day rail was renationalised.

So what is happening here-avoiding the obvious political point of using taxpayer money-is that money and legislation is being used by the government to not only give corporate welfare(sorry I couldn't help myself) to a private company by handing them $18 million bucks to compete against other private trucking companies, but you have the owner of an inefficient, loss making business that will never make money, trying to even the competitive playfield, for them, by penalising its competition with extra taxes!

My head is dizzy with vitriol!!

I will be indirectly hit in the pocket here because I own shares in Mainfreight[MFT] a very competitive, efficient and profitable transport player . Toll trucking have a definite competitive advantage over such companies with that $18 million of taxpayer funds in their back pockets.

Like the State run Air New Zealand[AIR] freezing out competition in the domestic airline industry, the squeeze on transport and trucking companies by the Labour government will continue as long as they remain in office, because rail just cannot compete on a even footing.

Finally, the main point of this column was to make a point to the Commerce Commission, who always check out this blog when their name is mentioned, and one of their office drones googles over a soy latte to find out who is talking about them. Such actions described above are clear violations of competition law.

Instead of salivating over hot State funded QC's appealing against the The Warehouse[WHS] case that you lost in the High Court why don't you get off your ivory soaked easy chairs and do something in the trucking business Vs KiwiRail anti competitive case.

Government's actions via their ownership of KiwiRail make their anti-competitive moves against the private transport industry a banner case.

To win this Ms Rebstock, Chairman of the CC {photo above} would be an easy case and get you the attention that you so obviously desire.

I'm waiting with baited breath for you to file your writ against KiwiRail.

Tell me when to exhale.

Related Share Investor reading

Why did you buy that Stock?[Mainfreight]
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
The history of The Warehouse takeover players indicates a long and winding road
Day of protest by truckers against tax

c Share Investor 2008

Monday, May 12, 2008

History of Warehouse takeover players indicates a long winding road

With The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZX] shares taking a dive over the last week or so because of their weak sales data and grim outlook in the medium term, the attractiveness to speculators wanting to get an even better slice of the company and flog it off to Woolworths Australia [WOW:ASX]-I don't think Foodstuffs are in the game because of their shallow pockets-is an opportunity going begging for.

Given that the Overseas Investment Office has already given its approval for Woolworths OZ to acquire the owner of the Red Sheds the only stumbling block for the big W will be for them to lose their defence of an appeal by the seriously malfeasant Commerce Commission(CC), who want to put the brakes on any possible deal to stitch up The Warehouse with Foodstuffs or Woolworths OZ.




The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Much of the Commission's case relies on the potential of The Warehouse Extra to provide competition to the current "duopoly", stunningly a duopoly that the Commerce Commission itself voted for when it initially allowed Progressive to merge Foodtown's brands with Woolworths NZ in 2002. Woolworths Australia then bought that merged entity in 2005.


Dr Farmer said the High Court at Wellington was wrong in fact when it concluded it was unlikely the Extra store concept would be expanded and even if it did succeed it was unlikely to exert competitive pressure.

"It would be ironic that the firm, which has the potential to expand and which is already exerting pressure on the incumbents, should be able to be the subject of acquisition by one or other of those incumbents, thereby subjecting consumers once again to the duopoly," Dr Farmer said.

James Farmer QC April 30 2008.


Ironic indeed Dr Farmer, have you read your client's former cases that initially advocated a duopoly in 2002?

The Warehouse itself has stated that the Extra format hasn't achieved the potential that they thought it would and it seems unlikely that they will expand the current 3 stores to the 15 planned ones.

Farmer then spent much time grasping at straws by arguing over what the term"likely"might mean.

There is fierce competition for market share in the supermarket sector though and if you look at the trail of litigation over the Progressive/NZ Woolworths merger of 2002, where an appeal was taken all the way to the Privy Council by Foodstuffs, lost, and then writs and a judicial review taken regarding the Overseas Investment Commission and their decision to allow the merger. The whole process began in May 2001 and was only rectified towards the end of 2002.

As I have indicated in earlier columns, even if the appeal to the High Court is lost by the CC, and I think they will lose-they lost their 2002 case after changing their initial positive stance to allow a merger, due to a small change in competition law- they can still put their tail between their legs and run off to the Supreme Court in Wellington and start yet another appeal. The history of these supermarket players and the Commerce Commission would indicate that the Supreme court is the most likely scenario. In which case any decision, either way, will be closer to the end of 2008.

The Warehouse shares were down 2.8% to NZ$5.20 or 15c on over 1 million shares traded today and any further weakness in share price is an opportunity for a good short to medium term play.


Related Reading

Warehouse takeover battle in court TVNZ
NZ retail duopoly court case begins The Australian
Woolworths still keen on NZ's Warehouse - report Reuters


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data


Related Amazon reading


The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy

The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy by Charles Fishman
Buy new: $10.20 / Used from: $8.50
Usually ships in 24 hours



c Share Investor 2008 & 2009


Monday, April 28, 2008

The Warehouse Group takeover saga continues

One to watch this week.

The Warehouse[WHS.NZX] takeover saga continues Tuesday 28 April (NZ Time) with the Court of Appeal case, and runs for a further 3 days. There will be no immediate decision, with weeks more to wait, well, we have waited nearly 2 years so far, and the likelihood that Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] will be able to make a bid looks more likely than not.

The Commerce Commission(CC), who are appealing against the affirmative decision in the High Court last year, have struck it lucky to some extent, with spiraling food prices making emotive headlines all over the place but it any judge worth his pay packet will look past this temporary wave of bio fuel inspired food inflation and make a fully emotionless decision.

The CC have a wafer thin case and any new arguments for their case will probably pin themselves on the possibility that The Warehouse and its "Extra" food format will be a serious player sometime in the distant future.

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Unlikely given that The Warehouse itself has largely lost interest in the concept itself.

While many may groan when I mention government interference halting the other long running takeover saga, the Auckland Airport bid by the Canadians, this writer wouldn't put anything past New Zealand's socialist government putting their sticky mitts into this deal, should the Court of Appeal case come down in The Warehouse favour.

Whatever the machinations maybe in our courts this week, the outcome will be closely watched and a positive outcome for The Warehouse will be a serious shot in the arm for our local stockmarket, given its rather stagnant showing over the last 6 months.

Many shareholders will reinvest the collective north of NZ$ 2 billion proceeds of a sale in other shares on the NZX.

Keep watching here for further updates on this story.


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data


Related Amazon reading


The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy

The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy by Charles Fishman
Buy new: $10.20 / Used from: $8.50
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2008 & 2009

Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Warehouse set for a turbulent 2008

http://shopping.t5.co.nz/images/the-warehouse.jpg
The Warehouse Group Ltd
(WHS.NZ: Quote, Profile, Research)

NZX 2008 Interim Result - NZX
HY Profit up 7% - Reuters
Warehouse profit rises 7% on warranties - Bloomberg




The Court of Appeal will hear on April 29, the Commerce Commission case in seeking to overturn a High Court ruling allowing Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] and Foodstuffs supermarket companies to bid for The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ]

In the wake of flat profits reported on Friday14 (NZ Time) the outcome of this case will come under closer scrutiny by investors in a New Zealand sharemarket racked with uncertainties.

Unfavourable global market conditions, a dismal forward look at the New Zealand economy, a drop in profit forecast by The Warehouse itself, and local and foreign investors disgruntled over recent Government intervention in Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] and their assault on private property rights, makes the case for a quick decision by the court even more compelling.

Investors have voted overwhelmingly to sell their shares in Auckland International Airport on Thursday last week and the same will be the case when and if the 3 parties to The Warehouse saga are given the go ahead to make a deal.

As mentioned before in this column I have every belief that the deal will happen, even if it has to go the way of the Supreme Court sometime at the end of 2008.

The only drawback to a Supreme Court ruling though is that the bench is stacked with politically appointed Labour Party Judges, so a verdict there could be in question.

The motivation for the buyers in this process to acquire, I think, will be higher than before the current credit squeeze. Clearly if credit gets horrendously expensive, the weaker player in terms of finance capabilities, Foodstuffs, may find it difficult to offer a competitive price for The Warehouse and therefore have to drop out.

Woolworths still have the upper hand in terms of available financing so the fortune favours the Aussies and the credit mess we are facing may in actual fact go in their favour . They have large cash reserves and future cash revenue to boot.

We await with keenness for a decision from the High Court, but uncertainty over the decision, given current political overtones and issues over perceived "kiwi assets falling to filthy foreign control", with a decision to also be made by the overseas investment office, may leave investors in The Warehouse disappointed, in an election year filled with emotional baggage left over from the distant 1980s and a Socialist government bent on Neo Muldonism.


Disclosure: I own WHS shares



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data

Related Amazon reading


The <span class=

The Wal-Mart Effect: How the World's Most Powerful Company Really Works--and How It's Transforming the American Economy by Charles Fishman
Buy new: $10.20 / Used from: $8.50
Usually ships in 24 hours


c Share Investor 2008 & 2009

Thursday, February 7, 2008

Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid

Contrary to a comment made earlier last week when High Court Judge Jill Mallon had said an appeal could be made by the Commerce Commission to overrule her decision in November 2007, that Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] could make a bid for The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] and it should be under the condition that the case was heard urgently, the Court of Appeal has ruled that it would hear an appeal on April 29.

The latter court date will be after a court imposed ban on bidding for the Warehouse ends on February 29.

It is difficult to see a bid be made by either Foodstuffs or Woolworths after the bid deadline but it has been an unusual tussle so far and stranger things have happened in other takeover processes.

It would be presumptuous for any of the two possible bidders to show their hand early though and clearly wouldn't look good for their defence in the Court of Appeal case because the last thing the defence needs is a pissed off learned judge because his authority has been undermined in his court.

What is clear though, is that we are unlikely to get a result either way anytime soon.

If either side doesn't get their desired result in April they are likely to have another go at a case packed Supreme Court in Wellington.


Disclosure: I own WHS shares


The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Share Investor Forum-Discuss this topic


Related Links

The Warehouse Financial Data


Related Amazon Reading

Life With <span class=

Life With Walmart: A Vendor's Story by Kunmi Oluleye
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c Share Investor 2008 & 2009

Friday, February 1, 2008

Commerce Commission makes a meal of Warehouse takeover

The latest dance by the participants in the Warehouse takeover waltz has one of the participants grandstanding, again.

http://media.apn.co.nz/webcontent/image/jpg/ian_morrice.jpg
Ian Morrice, CEO of The Warehouse, maybe smiling but
the Commerce Commission are losing their argument
to stop the retailer from a takeover because competition
from the company's Extra format stores, on which the
commissions argument is based, are failing to provide
an alternative in the supermarket sector.



The Commerce Commission was earlier this week cleared to appeal a High Court decision allowing Woolworths and Foodstuffs to make takeover bids for The Warehouse(WHS).

Justice Mallon heard the commission's application for leave to appeal in the High Court at Wellington. The application was opposed by both of the supermarket giants and the Warehouse itself.

The Commerce Commission have wanted to drag out the whole process since they got involved way back in mid 2007. The latest attention grabber by them is trying to drag out an appeal date.

The commission had pushed to have the Court of Appeal hear any case in late April and early May.

The commission had said:

"the potential dates for a hearing, starting on February 26, were not suitable as the legal counsel it has been using would not be available at that time".

It seems incongruous to me that legal counsel would "not be available" because one would expect that commission counsel would be working hard on the case given that an appeal was imminent and they were actually preparing a case for a decision to appeal this week.

After arguing that the commission's counsel would "not be available"
commission chairwoman Paula Rebstock said:

"The commission agrees with the need for urgency and will be asking the Court of Appeal for the earliest achievable date".

So which one is it Paula!

In my opinion, counsel should have been ready to go as soon as the High Court gave their approval for an appeal.

Either the Commerce Commission don't have solid new evidence for an appeal and they are simply stalling for time in the hope that their argument can be backed up by something new they might uncover.

One of the commissions major arguments against allowing the takeover of the Warehouse by Foodstuffs and Woolworths is crumbling.

The Warehouse' "Extra Format" food/general merchandise stores, of which there are just 3, would allow new competition in the duopoly supermarket sector in New Zealand the commission argued, but since their initial ruling against a takeover in June 2007 sales figures for the stores have been below expectations and management is expected to make a decision in around a month regarding their future.

As I have said before, I don't have much faith that the commission have a good case. If they did they would have won it first time up and been ready to argue their appeal immediately.

A decent assemblage of briefs would have been ready to rock and roll ASAP and it will certainly inspire confidence in the defence given the slackness of the commission's counsel.

The Commission may be forced to fight its appeal as soon as next month, alot earlier than they expected, perhaps February 26-28.

Investors in The Warehouse have pushed up the share price from NZ$5.35 to $5.84 this week, so the sometimes savvy market doesn't believe the commission's argument either.


Essential related Share Investor reading


Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line

The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon
Court of Appeal case could be dismissed

Disclosure: I own Warehouse shares


C Share Investor 2008

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Warehouse Appeal: From stuff.co.nz

Warehouse sale delay costing shareholders and public

By NICK CHURCHOUSE - The Dominion Post | Wednesday, 30 January 2008


Woolworths says every month the Commerce Commission holds up a prospective purchase of The Warehouse is costing shareholders in the red sheds $5 million.

The High Court in Wellington heard the commission's argument for leave to appeal against a November High Court decision that overturned its ruling stopping Woolworths and Foodstuffs - New Zealand's two main supermarket companies - bidding.

Commission lawyer Stephen Kos QC told Justice Jillian Mallon the commission had a public responsibility to appeal if it thought a takeover would bring substantial lessening of competition in the supermarket industry.

The case relates to The Warehouse Group's foray into the supermarket game with its Warehouse Extra stores.

Mr Kos cited examples from Australia and Britain where competition regulators had questioned the competitive practices of supermarkets, saying the industry was a matter of concern worldwide - and in countries with more competition than New Zealand.

"The commission clearly has a responsibility to represent the public interest for the benefit of consumers," Mr Kos said.

But Woolworths lawyer David Goddard QC said the commission was doing the opposite. With every month a takeover bid did not eventuate, shareholders and the general public were out of pocket.

Mr Goddard estimated each Warehouse share would earn a $2 premium on face value from a hypothetical Woolworths buy-out, and with 300 million shares that meant they were missing out on $600 million.

Adding interest earnings to the guesswork numbers, he said every month without an offer on The Warehouse was $5 million lost.

Warehouse shares closed down 3 cents at $5.70 last night.

The delay, more than a year since the commission first blocked takeover moves, also left Warehouse employees in limbo and robbed consumers of benefiting from synergies and savings through adding The Warehouse to the Woolworths stable, Mr Goddard said.

Mr Kos, also seeking a stay on attempted acquisition by the supermarket companies till the matter could be heard in the Court of Appeal, said they could not expect the commission not to appeal because of commercial inconvenience.

"Unless [Woolworths and Foodstuffs] can show the commission is doomed to failure then there is an appeal to be heard."

He said the case was arguable and the stakes were significant so they should be allowed to appeal.

Foodstuffs and Warehouse lawyers also opposed the commission's applications.

Warehouse counsel Matthew Dunning said the "Damocles' sword" the commission had was creating uncertainty for The Warehouse.

Justice Mallon reserved her decision.

Disclosure: I own WHS shares

Essential related Share Investor reading

Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line

The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Links c Share Investor 2007,2008



Thursday, December 27, 2007

Share Investor: Best and Worst of 2007

Its the time of the year where I look back on the good, the bad and the ugly in the business world during 2007, with the Inaugural Share Investor best and worst of 2007.

While there was very little good about it; finance companies going bust, management spinning stories till investors got sick with dizziness and a sharemarket that failed to catch afire, some ugliness: Helen Clark and her mates increasing taxes again and not returning them till election year 2008, and few bright sparks, Micheal Hill glittering with gold by returning healthy gains for investors.

Enough verbal diarrhea.

Lets kick it off then with the biggest prick of the year.

Wanker of the year

Little Timmy Saunders and Origin/Contact Energy win this award for steadfastly refusing to step down the aforementioned Tim Saunders and other board members on Contact Energy's board for pursuing Origin's objectives rather than the wishes of Contact Energy shareholders who wanted him gone.

Arrogance and failure were the hallmarks of Saunders reign and his failure at the head of Feltex Carpets seemed to be of benefit for his reelection to the Contact Board at the end of 2007.


IPO Disasters

While there were a number of notable failures in 2007, Xero and Carmel Fisher's Marlin, the IPO that made the biggest headlines this year was Burger Fuel.

Burger Fuel had the highest hit count on this blog on Google so while it is a favourite subject, that doesn't make it a favourite for investors when they decided where they were going to put their cold hard cash this year.

The IPO was shooting for NZ$15 million but got less than a third of that.

The shares were issued at $1.00 and never sold for that figure and have continued to slumber in the 50-60c range, where they finished today at 59c.

It doesn't look promising for 2008, given the global credit crunch so best we all shut our eyes and wish the coming year away.


Leaders of the year

It is for a company that I have a shareholding in but I cant avoid name dropping it again.

Don Braid and Bruce Plested from Mainfreight control a company that is growing profits and sales globally while at the same time having a no nonsense approach to managing his people and his company.

He put the boot in during 2007 into the Labour Government for increasing business costs and interfering with private and public companies. Clearly not afraid of any possible political backlash, New Zealand business needs more no nonsense straight talkers like this dynamic duo.


Cant wait to see the back of you award

Head and shoulders above anyone would have to be Telecom's Teresa Gattung.

Presiding over a company that failed to plan for the future and is now counting the financial cost Gattung left with a hefty payday and never looked back on her years of shareholder destruction at the helm.

Restaurant Brand's Victoria Salmon finally got pushed and her emphasis on marketing and flash over service and substance had a marked affect on sales and profit at the restaurant operator.

Its current decline was somewhat slowed latter on in 2007 but it had nothing to do with new management, it was just another small upwards cycle until the next inevitable downward spiral.


Most battered sharemarket sector

While most NZX sectors got a hammering this year, head and shoulders above the rest, without a doubt, were the retailing stocks.

Battered by high mortgage rates, gas and electricity prices and new taxes, shoppers held off spending and only did so when enticed by increasing sales by retailers.

Retailer's margins were affected and competition by the likes of Hallensteins, Postie Plus, Pumpkin Patch, The Warehouse and others meant that share prices of these retailers sank like their store sales sticker prices.

Pumpkin Patch finished the year at around half its $4.95 high and others had more than 30% come off their market caps.


Losers of 2007

Investors in the myriad of finance companies that folded this year, putting well over a billion dollars of investors money at risk.

Investors ignored the risk or were advised to take the risk by "financial advisors" and were not given the required return for risk taken.

A lesson in investing that hopefully some can learn from.


Woolpullers prize

The prize for keeping its investors and the investor public at large out of the picture would have to go to management at Sky City Entertainment.

Its ability to string out takeover proceedings and its nonsensical market statements and erroneous time frames for deadlines is a skill worthy of David Copperfield, not the manager of a New Zealand blue chip.

Hopefully the new head, Nigel Morrison
, might be able to stop the boardroom table and investors heads from spinning in 2008.

Red tape award

The red tape award has to go to the Commerce Commission for first deciding to put the kybosh on the Warehouse takeover by Foodstuffs and Woolworths and then appealing the decision by the High Court to overrule that decision.

The commission have stretched out the whole process by more than a year and it looks likely shareholders will be none the wiser until well into 2008.


Conflict of interest prize

To large shareholders in Auckland Airport, Lloyd Morrison's Infratil, Auckland and Manukau city councils and their representatives on the board.

The conflicted board members are not serving other shareholders well and put their own conflicted interests before smaller shareholders.


Fairy tale award

For those in the Green Global warming religion whose adherence to fairy tales and junk science has cost New Zealand millions already in 2007 and is set to cost us billions in 2008 and for the NZX and Mark Weldon to latch onto it by starting up a "Carbon Trading" platform in 2008.


Thank you for 2007

If it wasn't for those connected with Sharetrader getting my old share investor forum site removed from its host in July because they were afraid of a little healthy competition, this blog wouldn't have been the success it has been in the latter half of 2007.

The competition has pushed me to expand and enabled a much more immediate and larger audience than before and at this rate of growth it will easily surpass sharetrader's audience by mid 2008.

Blogging really is the way and I want to thank Philip Mac Callister for his help there!


Disclosure


I  own shares in The Warehouse,Sky City,Auckland Airport, Mainfreight, Ryman, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, Contact



 c Share Investor 2007

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Commerce Commission impacts on The Warehouse' bottom line

The future of The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] is on hold, after the Commerce Commission announced earlier this week that they are going to appeal the High Court decision to the Court of Appeal to allow Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] bidding for the retailer.

Unless the Commission can argue new evidence in the higher court or argue on a technicality on a point of law then their appeal is not likely to be a positive one for them.

The Commission also face the distinct possibility that their appeal maybe thrown out before it begins at a preliminary hearing, due to sit on January 29 to decide whether leave to appeal will be granted.

Warehouse management have publicly backed the two bidders so it shows the direction the company wants to go.

The Commerce Commission clearly see the High Court decision to allow the two Warehouse suitors to bid as a watershed decision that must be fought with all their state backed muscle.

Personally, like most state apparatus and workers within those apparatus, there is a little bit of self preservation involved. In the Commission's decision to appeal we have a little job justification going on and any brakes on the growth of a business like The Warehouse, while they have to wait, and they have waited for over a year because of the CC dilly dallying, is purely incidental to those at the Commission.

It is outrageous that the state can take such a lengthy time to make such an important decision over the property rights of Warehouse shareholders. While it is understandable that there will be competition issues in business from time to time and these should be arbitrated, it is even more serious an issue when arbitration of these issues materially affects an important business because of unnecessary delays, not to mention the negative impacts to those individuals and groups who own that business.

The Commerce Commission should take the lay of the land and come to the conclusion that much wiser heads at the High Court did, that the Warehouse and its current owners need to be able to freely sell an asset that is theirs, to two willing buyers that want it.

The millions of dollars that it has cost The Warehouse so far since their business has been on hold is a serious issue and the strangle that the Commission has on its business at present must be let go so the losses don't continue to mount.



Disclosure: I own WHS shares



The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2007 & 2009

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Border's decision an indicator for Warehouse takeover outcome

A very interesting decision by the NZ Commerce Commission on Tuesday to give Whitcoulls the go ahead to buy the Borders book chains in New Zealand and Australia.


http://www.aucklanddailyphoto.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/04/a24042007.jpg
Border's Auckland Queen St Store

Given this outcome one could be forgiven for not thinking that either Foodstuffs or Woolworths should be able to get similar approval to buy The Warehouse chain. when a decision in the appeal to the High Court comes to light.

The approval for Whitcoulls to buy the 5 store chain in NZ is a similar scenario to the possible Warehouse buyout.

In Whitcoulls you have a dominant player wanting to takeover the superstore format that Borders is modelled on even before it has been given a chance to flourish under another independent player. Paper Plus is another dominant NZ player that is also interested. Dymocks, with quite large format stores and a much NZ smaller business has dropped out of the running for some reason.

Dymocks would have been the natural partner for Borders in NZ simply because of its small size.

As has been covered ad nauseum, Foodstuffs and Woolworths twin bids for The Warehouse are being made by two dominant grocery players in New Zealand and the Warehouse has recently kicked off development of a superstore format along the lines of Walmart's "supercenters" that include grocery lines and with three of these stores the format is in its infancy.

In Auckland City CBD the purchase of Borders by Whitcoulls will allow the combo company almost a monopoly in the superstore format, with the Whitcoulls store only a block away from Borders, you will see price rises for stock. In the rest of the country Whitcoulls and Paper Plus dominate the book and stationery industry.

If you use the CC rationale for allowing a Whitcoulls or Paperplus buyout of Borders and apply it to a possible Warehouse takeover by two dominant grocery players the similarities are spookily parallel ones. The Warehouse extra format is in its infancy, as is the Border's format and allowing Foodstuffs or Woolworths to purchase would by the CCs own standards be acceptable.

The nub of the Commerce Commissions argument in the Borders case seems to be that their large format stores don't lessen competition in the hands of a dominant player, so the same measuring stick must be applied in the Warehouse decision before the High Court. Extra format stores are unlikely to be a threat to other competition if purchased by a dominant player if you apply the Borders decision or they cant be much of a threat in themselves as a successful format in anyones hands. Therefore a positive outcome must be applied otherwise consistency in decisions at the Commission will be threatened.

The wait and outcome will be interesting and the High Court have a tough decision to make. However, they must apply the same rules to the Warehouse decision as the Commerce Commission have made this week in regard to Borders.

Disclosure: I own Warehouse shares

C Share Investor 2007

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

The Warehouse: Outcomes of Commerce Commision Decision

The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ]watchers will know that the appeal case of Supermarket operators Foodstuffs and Woolworth's being allowed to bid for the company started yesterday in front of the Commerce Commission in the High Court at Wellington, after a decision barring either from taking over discount chain The Warehouse was brought down in June.

You will also know that the possible outcome of a Commerce Commission decision is probably going to be far from clear cut and is unlikely to provide investors or speculators with a clear focus on which to base any further investment.

My intention here is to outline what decisions the Commerce Commission possibly going make because it just isn't clear which way the cash register will open. It could go either way, with or without conditions but with the added confusion of The Warehouse itself being involved in the appeal.

What I would like to point out are the possible permutations that any decision by the Commerce Commission might have for the parties involved and investors in The Warehouse.

If the decision goes the way of both Foodstuffs and Woolworths Australia [WOW.ASX] being allowed to bid for the Warehouse then clearly this will be the best outcome for investors as there will be a fierce bidding war in which Woolworth's is likely to be the winner because its pockets are deeper than Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and that Mexican Billionaire who just made the top of the B club, combined.

Also with a open yes decision by the Commission it may leave the possibility of either Foodstuffs or Woollies partnering with Stephen Tindall to buy the company.

A no decision for both would of course lead to another appeal and would also leave the aisle open for Stephen Tindall, the majority owner of the Warehouse, to reignite his bid to launch a buyback of the company in conjunction with a private equity player or perhaps a new grocery entrant.

Woolworth's could be allowed to buy The Warehouse simply because its market share is significantly smaller than Foodstuffs.

Issues involved over domination of retail market segments should any of these decisions become reality may also rear its head. Selling of conflicting parts of any merged business that may cause competition issues may also be part of a Commerce Commission decision.

Whatever the outcome, the decision by the Commerce Commission is going to be a difficult one for them to make and is going to take a long time.

Since the sitting began on Tuesday 23 October the market has given the share price a boost by 20c to $5.65 today.


Disclosure: I own WHS shares


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c Share Investor 2007 & 2009