NZ HERALD: Latest political poll and Political Animal commentary

As election day draws near the gap in polling between the National and Labour party stays constant.

Budget bribes, small as they were, clearly didn't work and Labour will have to make them bigger and more plentiful as we near polling day.

They have already started by bribing 44 thousand public "servants" with another weeks leave.

Bet your bottom taxpayer earned dollar though, Labour are going to raid the taxpayer purse to try to get back into power. They did it back in 1989, when they admitted a pre-election $89 million surplus but after their election bribes and when the books were uncovered post election we were over 1 billion in debt!

Is anyone listening though?

New Zealand Herald Poll story

Budget fails to do the trick for the Government

5:00AM Friday May 30, 2008
By Audrey Young

Helen Clark ranks below John Key as preferred prime minister, according to the poll. Photo / Getty Images

Labour's tax-cutting Budget has had no immediate impact on its poll rating in today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, the first major poll that includes a large post-Budget sample.

The economy has moved into top spot as the issue most likely to influence voters in this year's election, just nudging out tax cuts, which is the second most important issue.

Labour has moved down one point to 36.2 per cent but National has also moved down fractionally, by 0.6 to 51.5.

The gap between the two main parties has barely budged from last month's poll: 15.3 points, compared with 14.9 last month. National would still be able to govern alone.

National leader John Key continues to poll just ahead of Helen Clark as preferred prime minister, 44.6 per cent to 42.3 per cent.

If anyone received a lift from the Budget, it was New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who claimed significant gains for the elderly.

His personal ratings as preferred prime minister more than doubled to 6.7 per cent.
But that boost has not been replicated in support for his party (1.9 per cent, up 0.4 points)

On those figures, unless Mr Peters won Tauranga or another electorate, NZ First would not make it back into Parliament.

The poll of decided voters was taken over three weeks in May. Two-thirds of respondents were polled before the Budget and almost one-third (418 people) after it. The margin of error on the post-Budget sample is bigger than the pre-Budget sample.

The support levels for the parties changed slightly in the samples taken before and after the Budget. Labour was on 36.5 per cent before the Budget, and 35.3 per cent after it.

National was on 51.7 per cent before the Budget and 51.2 after it.

On the basis of this poll the Greens would comfortably get over the 5 per cent threshold and return to Parliament with eight MPs, two more than now.

The poll's pre- and post-Budget movements were more pronounced for Helen Clark and Winston Peters in the choice of preferred prime minister.

Helen Clark dropped 3.6 points and Winston Peters jumped 4.3 points in the post-Budget sample.

Overall, compared to last month's poll, Mr Peters is up 3.5 points, Mr Key is down 3.4 and Helen Clark is down 3.

Economic news dominated the headlines in May with the price of petrol passing $2 a litre and a lot of coverage on interest rates and stress on household budgets.

The Government announced a delay in including liquid fuels in the emissions trading scheme,which National announced it would not support.

The head of the Immigration Service, Mary Anne Thompson, resigned in disgrace. And Finance Minister Michael Cullen set out plans for $10.6 billion in tax cuts over three years.

Translated to seats in the House, National would get 63 and could govern alone.

When respondents were asked which issue was most likely to influence their vote at the election, 26.7 per cent said the economy, 22.5 per cent said tax cuts and 11.7 per cent said hospital waiting lists.

Mr Key said last night that the economic issues the country was facing were weighing directly on the polls. "On the back of that, the Budget doesn't appear to be having any major impact because the dominant factor is the economic malaise that is washing over the country."

Helen Clark could not be contacted.

* The poll of 1279 respondents was taken between May 5 and May 28 and the margin of error on the total sample is 2.7 per cent. The margin of error on the 418 polled after the Budget is 4.6 per cent. The percentage of undecided respondents was 13.8 per cent.

Related Political Animal reading

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c Political Animal 2008

STUFF: Fairfax poll & Political Animal commentary

The latest fairfax political poll continues the trend from last year where National started to show a wide gap. This gap has not only continued but has got wider as time goes on.

It is clear to voters, Labour or National, that voters want their money back, in the form of personal tax cuts. Not State sanctioned welfare like working for families or one off dollops from those that earn the money to those that haven't. They simply want their own cash back in the hand on a weekly basis, without state apron strings involved or mixed up in loony taxpayer subsidised "savings" schemes like Kiwi saver.

The billion dollar plus price tag for a train set and not dividends in their pockets, seems to be yet another motivator for long suffering middleclass taxpayers to get on track to get back what they deserve.

Their own moola!


Political Animal Reading


Michael Cullen speaks with forked tongue
Pointing fingers in the playground
At least Robin Hood was honest
The black economy makes sense
Labour's State Control out of control




Stuff poll and commentary

National is on track for a landslide election win with a 27-point poll lead over Labour.

On today's Fairfax Media poll, Labour faces an election night rout that would oust 14 sitting MPs and deliver National a 13-seat majority.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen is now under huge pressure to deliver an election-winning Budget next week or face the backlash from voters seeking relief from rising pressure on household budgets.

But on today's result, voters have already written Labour off and it may take more than the modest tax cuts signaled by Dr Cullen to turn that around.

The Nielsen poll for Fairfax newspapers suggests that not just the size but the timing of any tax cuts could be critical, with voters saying they want relief now, even if that puts pressure on interest rates.

Just over half of those questioned - 51 per cent - don't want to wait for tax cuts, even if that means interest and mortgage rates stay higher for longer.

It suggests that Dr Cullen's argument that early and sizeable tax cuts will only push up interest rates and delay relief for heavily mortgaged households does not wash with voters.

Kiwibank cut its two-year fixed-term home loan rate to 8.99 per cent yesterday and other banks are expected to follow in anticipation of a cut in interest rates by the Reserve Bank.

Today's poll will send panic through Labour ranks. National's lead is a turnaround from polls which had Labour closing the gap - the previous Fairfax poll had National and Labour 18 points apart.

National Party leader John Key said yesterday that voters were sick of Labour.

"They're tired of the fact that they're so out of touch with issues that concern them in their daily life."

National would fight the election on tax cuts, which would be a defining difference between the two parties.

"All the messages that Labour has given off in the last two months is that tax cuts will be relatively small."

Prime Minister Helen Clark, who is in South Korea, could not be contacted for comment.

The poll put the Greens on 6 per cent - safely above the 5 per cent threshold, where they were joined by NZ First on 5 per cent.

That could put NZ First leader Winston Peters back at centre-stage in any post-election deals, though on current numbers National could easily govern alone.

The poll questioned 1091 voters between Wednesday May 7 and Tuesday this week and has a margin of error of 3 per cent.


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