When Labour Gets In

The question is what do investors do in the face of impending doom when the Labour Party stumbles across the line to win the 2017 election. 

Well they've started it already.

They have stopped buying Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] its moving backwards with a DIV coming,

Auckland Airport growth is bound to stall under a Labour Govt.

Labour's stated aim is to at least halve immigration and I think it will go completely the other way within 2 years - people will not want to stay.

The other thing Labour is going to introduce, a $25 dollar new tax for travelers to this country is going to have a major impact on tourists.

This will clearly impact further on Auckland Airport, it clearly has already.

Uncertainty certainly plays a part in it, there's no doubt about that but reality plays a big part as well and Labour's focus of their extra spending is on the unproductive parts of the economy. That has been the way of the Labour Govt's from year one.

But you don't get economic growth from putting taxpayer money into things like "higher wages for everyone" it is simply a blight on the taxpayer and business as a whole.

You've got to be focused on what you as an individual can bring to the table rather than Labour's view that whats on the table is mine and that extending the table through extra taxes and more Govt borrowing is the way to go.

Its not.

You've got to wonder about those companies that have got a high component of transport costs, Like Freightways and Fletcher Building. 

These companies have come off recent highs and they are nervous about what will happen when Labour gets into power.

Every company on the NZX  is effected by the probable change of Govt.

I'm not worried about my investments. I will take the time to look at each company in the Share Investor Portfolio and buy more when they get cheap enough.

That's the thing with long-term investing in shares and changes in Govt. You make your serious money in times of gloom and (like we will be heading to under a Labour Govt) and make even more in times of boom (like we are just coming off now - under National).

Either way I'm not disturbed.



AIA @ Share Investor

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Freightways @ Share Investor 

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Fletcher Building @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2017

Labour Plan: Change Everything

Hi again 2 posts in 2 days, wow. 

Anyway it has just occurred to me that labour have a plan. They plan to change EVERYTHING that national have done over the last 5 or 6 years.

I've heard them announce policies over the last few days and it occurred to me that every part of a particular policy WILL be changed, save a couple of good details. They are talking about education, benefit rates, employment law etc...everything put in place by key that has done us very we'll over the GFC.

Are you really that finicky that you would change because of a few emails and the appearance of 2 fat men on the political horizon...2 vicious men who don't give a fuck about you or me, they just care about themselves.

Think about it before you vote, I'm voting 2 ticks blue this sept 20. There is nobody else, I'd vote for labour if they had decent people who were normal and had good sound policies but they don't.

Sept 20 do the right thing.

Labour to spend billions more on welfare

One would have thought Labour might have learned from their last 9 years in power that promising people free money through welfare schemes like Working for Families, paid maternity leave and taxpayer funded childcare is unaffordable at the best of times but during the worst economic times since the Great Depression extending all these vote buying schemes is morally, socially and fiscally wrong.

There may have been a ray of light in these policies if they had actually worked for the populace but Working for Families has incentivised staying on the same income and thereby lowering productivity, paid maternity leave and taxpayer funded childcare has drained taxpayer coffers so that those that don't qualify for this welfare are struggling to pay for these things themselves.

These things are not only unaffordable but they don't actually work in the long-term.

If welfare was such a success when introduced into New Zealand in the 1930s under Labour it would have seen itself bow out of existence because it would have cured all the ills politicians said it would.

Instead what we know has happened is that it has fostered crime, relative "poverty", child abuse and murder and made hundreds of thousands of us dependent on their fellow taxpayer.

There are more of us on welfare in New Zealand than at any other time in our history and clearly things are not well in the garden of eden.

You would think then, that politicians, especially those on the left, would learn that doing more of the same that has got us here is the pure definition of insanity.

State welfare doesn't work and we need to recognise that.

For Labour to ignore these facts, especially at a time when our economy could be on the brink of collapse over the next 5 years, just to buy votes for an election win is just suicide for the country as whole.

The money for all this extra spending will come from borrowing from China and increased and new taxes across the board for all workers. There is no other way this can happen.

Billions more in extra spending on non-productive policies and possible difficulties in borrowing more money means this would put the whole country in danger of defaulting sometime in the future.

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Show me the Money: Labour hides borrowing & additional taxes

The political intrigue over Phil Goff's failure to accurately cost his election promises came to a head a few days ago at a Wednesday debate when John Key asked Goff to "show him the money".

Even the rabid left's John Armstrong is having a go at him over this serious leadership failure.

Goff had been found seriously wanting as his increased spending to buy an election win showed the flaws on the Labour election balance sheet. The increased debt exposure Goff that the Labour Party would put the country in at a time when debt used in the wrong way is looked at very suspiciously by our lenders and whoever leads us needs to tread the debt boards very carefully should we end up like Greece or the USA.

The billions of extra spending Goff has been campaigning on will come via borrowing from Mums and Dads in China and as there is still an unexplained gap after what Labour say they will borrow, Labour will do what they have always done and introduce a slew of news taxes on the middle classes and those "rich pricks" that Labour hammered in their previous 9 years in Government.

The only problem is there is still a massive gap in funding after the borrowing and funds raised from increased taxes and the only two conclusions the public can come to are that they will have to borrow more than indicated or what is more probable hit Kiwis with undisclosed new taxes or increases in current tax rates.

Phil Goff says he will show us the money today but his credibility must be looked at more than a little askance because one would have to ask why haven't these costings and important figures been calculated before promises were made? He says they have been but it has taken 2 days so far to produce his costings but so far not a sausage.

The public awaits to see with interest what this economic magician can pull out of his hat but judging on this latest incident should voters be putting their trust in someone with their hard earned taxpayer dollars whose maths would have 1+1 equal 3?

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Twits of the week

Labour have a blog called "Red Alert" and have what I think is a weekly diatribe called Tweet of the Week.

They seem to be focused on their opposition and trivial stuff instead of the things potential Labour voters want to hear:

Just like Labour this tweet/twit doesn't make sense, so is lost on most kiwis bar Labour Party insiders and left-wing bloggers.

Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

C c c Darren Rickard 2011

Labour's capital gains tax to punish investors and the economy

Originally from www.shareinvestorblog.com

Lets take a look a Labour's new 15% capital gains tax (CGT) that they are going to impose on New Zealanders should they be lucky enough to be elected come November 26.

We probably need to start from the premise that any tax, whether it be a CGT, GST, income tax or otherwise is counterproductive to growth and always affects the income, asset or investment in a negative way and is therefore anti growth and anti productive.

The country does however need to collect some tax to run the state apparatus (and one may argue how big that should be) and a fairer flat tax system that would incentivise all to work harder and smarter and increase productivity and get the economy moving.

Labour's raft of new taxes across the board for those that earn $150,000 and more and their capital gains tax across all asset classes, except the family home, is not the answer to our current economic malaise or a positive way ahead for the future because if introduced will have the opposite affect to that stated by Phil Goff and his merry henchman David Cunliffe.

What we need to get us out of the economic mess that Labour incidentally spent their way into, is to remove taxes on savings, business investment, stockmarket investment and rental housing and other asset classes and thereby stimulate growth in these areas rather than stifle it with more crippling taxes. Labours 9 years of high taxes, huge spending and backward productivity growth should have been a lesson to them not to repeat the same mistakes but hey they are going to do it all again.

In general then a CGT is going to have a severe impact on investing but let us look at the topic that interests me and those that read this blog the most .

"Will apply to shares for those who trade them "on an occasional basis". Phil Goff New Zealand Herald , 14 July 2011

Lacks detail and needs defining but I will go on.

What the hell will a 15% CGT do to the stockmarket short term if introduced and in the long term?

Obviously before its introduction investors will want to pull out of the stockmarket to crystalise any gains made before the tax is introduced and clearly this will have negative impacts for the markets in the short to medium term. How much is unknown but in my experience it is unlikely to be a small impact and could very well lead to a stockmarket crash of some description.

In the long-term the consequences of a CGT are obvious. Investors are likely to avoid the local stockmarket and local business investment and decide to either spend the money they would have invested or send it offshore where stockmarket and business investments have a fairer tax treatment.

There is no practical, logical, social, ethical or financial reason to impose either the CGT and higher income taxes as whole and specifically a CGT on shares because the desired outcomes are all negative ones.

The only conclusion from that then is this grab for your money is a deeply political one. It is the politics of envy and greed where those that have worked themselves into a position that they earn a good living and have invested instead of spent will be punished for doing so.

You simply don't punish the goose that lays the golden egg and those that Phil Goff are targeting pay the vast bulk of taxes in this country and individuals that would one day want to apsire to being one of those people who have done well are going to be seriously disincentivised by these massive new taxes.

I will end on this quote by Phil Goff:

"Expected to affect less than 10 per cent of New Zealanders"

This is nonfactual because anybody who has a cost imposed on them will simply pass that cost on to those that can least afford them. Its economics 101 and Labour have failed on that test alone.

It will affect all of us, not just business owners, shareholders, rental houseowners and it will impact on those that Phil Goff and Labour say they advocate for and who vote for them. Those at the bottom of the income scale.

These taxes are not positive at all for the economy and risk the country going into economic decline should they be imposed after a Labour win on November 26 or at any latter stage should the party be shown the voters bottoms once again in 2011.

Choose wisely when you vote this year.

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c Share Investor & Darren Rickard 2011

Labour Set to Buy 2011 Election

Why is it every time I think of Labour and their policies for the 2011 Election the Abba song "Gimme, Gimmie, Gimmie" goes swirling around in my head like a nightmare from earlier elections they have fought.

It can be explained in the following way.

Every policy and indication of policy from Labour has thus far shown the electorate that Labour are set to try and bribe their way into power in November 2011.

It is all about taking from some to give free stuff to others and is a clear extension of policy that flourished under the party during Helen Clark's reign.

Extra holidays, extended working for families, higher subsidies for childcare and a host of other handouts already announced and no doubt more to come cement Phil Goff's former leaders lead in these kind of policies.

It seems to have passed Phil Goff and his fellow Robin Hoods by that we are in the midst of one of the biggest financial recessions the world has seen and he wants to compound the affects of it by higher taxes and higher debt because he wants to spend recklessly to buy votes.

One would have thought that he might have taken some notice that during the 9 years this country suffered under Labour, from 1999-2008, that these policies don't work and in fact contributed to the dire situation we now find ourselves in.

As bad are things are now, at least we have a reasonably fiscally conservative Govt with vast economic experience at the top. The alternative is a tax and spend regime that will lead us down the garden path, past Goff's barbeque to financial ruin.

Lets go past our greed and ask what we can sacrifice rather than what we can take and cant afford, from others.

Most traditional Labour supporters like myself were hoping to see a return to the older style Labour that looked after the worker rather than the bludger and we then would have considered switching our votes from National back home where our hearts lay.

But we simply cant afford another Labour term at this time, fiscally, morally and socially and we must vote for the good of our country and not ourselves.

NEW - From Fishpond.co.nz | Think Bigger, By Michael Hill

c Darren Rickard 2011

Hidden Agendas

There were plenty of accusations of "secret agendas" from the Labour Party centred at the National Party before they were devastated at the 2008 general election (Political Animal was one of few who picked a landslide well before the election) but after more than 3 months of National at the helm the only secret agendas now being revealed are those that Labour kept from its supporters and New Zealand voters.

Billions of dollars of bribes were promised by Labour to buy the 2008 election but the thing is very few of them were actually funded.

There were shortfalls in their student loan re-gig, the insulation of homes, health, police, roading and the grandaddy of them all the 2 billion plus hole in the ACC accounts.

While at the same time promising to extend and upgrade ACC cover and keep premiums low Labour were aware of these shortfalls but kept promising anyway-it was one of their main election planks.

Not only that, Michael Cullen and ACC Minister Maryan Street were obliged to let New Zealanders and the incoming Government know about the shortfall under financial disclosure law-law was something they had little disregard for in their 9 year reign of terror so that is no surprise.

So Labour lied to the people, covered up vital financial information they were obliged to report and went into the election under false pretences.

They should be at least ashamed and apologetic but instead they continue their arrogant, petty, two faced high handed ways that lost them the election.

Hon PHIL HEATLEY: ...Interestingly, the same Minister who fiddled the books in State housing fiddled the books at the Accident Compensation Corporation.

Hon Maryan Street: I raise a point of order, Mr Speaker. I consider that reference to be unparliamentary. I take offence to it and I ask that you ask that member to withdraw and apologise. Parliamentary debate March 5 2008

She did fiddle the books but all she cares about is a non-existent reputation.

The whole saga reminds one of that old chestnut that goes something like this, those that point their fingers in accusation are often the ones who have something to hide.

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c Political Animal 2009

NZ HERALD: Latest political poll and Political Animal commentary

As election day draws near the gap in polling between the National and Labour party stays constant.

Budget bribes, small as they were, clearly didn't work and Labour will have to make them bigger and more plentiful as we near polling day.

They have already started by bribing 44 thousand public "servants" with another weeks leave.

Bet your bottom taxpayer earned dollar though, Labour are going to raid the taxpayer purse to try to get back into power. They did it back in 1989, when they admitted a pre-election $89 million surplus but after their election bribes and when the books were uncovered post election we were over 1 billion in debt!

Is anyone listening though?

New Zealand Herald Poll story

Budget fails to do the trick for the Government

5:00AM Friday May 30, 2008
By Audrey Young

Helen Clark ranks below John Key as preferred prime minister, according to the poll. Photo / Getty Images

Labour's tax-cutting Budget has had no immediate impact on its poll rating in today's Herald-DigiPoll survey, the first major poll that includes a large post-Budget sample.

The economy has moved into top spot as the issue most likely to influence voters in this year's election, just nudging out tax cuts, which is the second most important issue.

Labour has moved down one point to 36.2 per cent but National has also moved down fractionally, by 0.6 to 51.5.

The gap between the two main parties has barely budged from last month's poll: 15.3 points, compared with 14.9 last month. National would still be able to govern alone.

National leader John Key continues to poll just ahead of Helen Clark as preferred prime minister, 44.6 per cent to 42.3 per cent.

If anyone received a lift from the Budget, it was New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, who claimed significant gains for the elderly.

His personal ratings as preferred prime minister more than doubled to 6.7 per cent.
But that boost has not been replicated in support for his party (1.9 per cent, up 0.4 points)

On those figures, unless Mr Peters won Tauranga or another electorate, NZ First would not make it back into Parliament.

The poll of decided voters was taken over three weeks in May. Two-thirds of respondents were polled before the Budget and almost one-third (418 people) after it. The margin of error on the post-Budget sample is bigger than the pre-Budget sample.

The support levels for the parties changed slightly in the samples taken before and after the Budget. Labour was on 36.5 per cent before the Budget, and 35.3 per cent after it.

National was on 51.7 per cent before the Budget and 51.2 after it.

On the basis of this poll the Greens would comfortably get over the 5 per cent threshold and return to Parliament with eight MPs, two more than now.

The poll's pre- and post-Budget movements were more pronounced for Helen Clark and Winston Peters in the choice of preferred prime minister.

Helen Clark dropped 3.6 points and Winston Peters jumped 4.3 points in the post-Budget sample.

Overall, compared to last month's poll, Mr Peters is up 3.5 points, Mr Key is down 3.4 and Helen Clark is down 3.

Economic news dominated the headlines in May with the price of petrol passing $2 a litre and a lot of coverage on interest rates and stress on household budgets.

The Government announced a delay in including liquid fuels in the emissions trading scheme,which National announced it would not support.

The head of the Immigration Service, Mary Anne Thompson, resigned in disgrace. And Finance Minister Michael Cullen set out plans for $10.6 billion in tax cuts over three years.

Translated to seats in the House, National would get 63 and could govern alone.

When respondents were asked which issue was most likely to influence their vote at the election, 26.7 per cent said the economy, 22.5 per cent said tax cuts and 11.7 per cent said hospital waiting lists.

Mr Key said last night that the economic issues the country was facing were weighing directly on the polls. "On the back of that, the Budget doesn't appear to be having any major impact because the dominant factor is the economic malaise that is washing over the country."

Helen Clark could not be contacted.

* The poll of 1279 respondents was taken between May 5 and May 28 and the margin of error on the total sample is 2.7 per cent. The margin of error on the 418 polled after the Budget is 4.6 per cent. The percentage of undecided respondents was 13.8 per cent.

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c Political Animal 2008