3 News Reid Poll: National set to Govern Alone

My pick for November based on who I talk to from a wide variety of social , political and economic backgrounds at the moment is another creaming for Labour with the ability of National to govern alone if they so choose.

I picked the National landslide in 2008 when others were picking a close election and I get the feeling again, anecdotally, that voters see little merit in what Goff has to offer and that national are performing well despite the economic situation.

There appears to be a few disgruntled waifs and strays argueing from the political pulpit but by and large they didn't vote for National anyway so the argument that these people are so annoyed they might vote for some of the smaller parties as a protest vote holds little merit.

Sun, 20 Feb 2011 6:00p.m.

By 3 News Political Editor Duncan Garner - go here for the full article from 3 news

Our first 3 News Reid Research poll in the election year.

The numbers show:

• National sheds a point to 54.6
• Labour drops back to 30.9
• Greens are strong at 8.2
• New Zealand First moved from 1.9 to 3.3 – the highest level of support for Winston Peters’ party since 2008.

“I think it shows the public are rewarding us for being honest and upfront,” says Mr Key.

“We are saying we are going to spend less money and a partial sell down of assets.”

The other minor parties remain very minor:

• The Maori Party is 2.3
• ACT continues its collapse to 0.6
• While not one person indicated support for Peter Dunne’s United Future party

In the Preferred Prime Minister rankings:

• Mr Key sheds five points, still high at 49.1
• Mr Goff stays flat at 6.8 – no movement
• Mr Peters moves up to 4.9 – the highest in more than 3 years
• While former Prime Minister Helen Clark still has a few supporters

So 3 News asked voters how the leaders are performing:

• Mr Key slips almost 7 percent to 69.6 percent.

He won’t want that to become a regular feature, and he’s up amongst those who think he is a doing a poor job.

• For Mr Goff, just one in four voters think he is doing a good job – the numbers are down from the last 3 News Reid Research poll.

But the emerging factor in this poll is Winston Peters.

He has still got some way to go, but he’s made a move, without saying much at all.

“I don’t trust him,” says Mr Key.

It will be a nervous five months for the Prime Minister if Mr Peters makes it back – it could make Mr Key’s chance of governing again that little bit weaker.

3 Newsare performing:

• Mr Key slips almost 7 percent to 69.6 percent.

He won’t want that to become a regular feature, and he’s up amongst those who think he is a doing a poor job.

• For Mr Goff, just one in four voters think he is doing a good job – the numbers are down from the last 3 News Reid Research poll.

NEW - From Fishpond.co.nz | Think Bigger, By Michael Hill

c Darren Rickard 2011

POLL: TV One Colmar Brunton Poll: October 12 2008

After a very poor showing for National in this Roy Morgan poll out Friday 10 October it will be interesting to see whether that will be replicated in today's TV One Colmar Brunton Poll for 12 October.

The latest Colmar Brunton Poll shows National on 51% and Labour on 33%.

This result follows on from the year long plus trend of National being ahead by a large margin.

Full Results

National has dropped back one point but it is still on 51%, well ahead of Labour, unchanged on 33%.

The Greens continue to gain ground, now on 8%. The Maori Party is not really featuring in the party vote, sitting just under 3%.

New Zealand First have crept up a little in the poll as have Act which is at 1.6%.

Translated into seats in parliament, National would govern alone on 63 seats, Labour would be in opposition with 41 seats and the Greens would have 10.

Assuming current electorate seats are held, the Maori Party gets four, Act two and United Future and the Progressives one seat each. Without an electorate seat, New Zealand first is out of parliament on these numbers.

In the preferred prime minister stakes, National leader John Key has come down a little but is still on first place on 39%.  Labour leader Helen Clark is unchanged on 31% and NZ First leader Winston Peters has dropped back one point to 2%.

Clark launched Labour's election campaign on Sunday saying the government has a plan to cope with the economic crisis, including implementing a deposit guarantee scheme.

And Key kicked off National's campaign, saying National is the party to lead New Zealand out of the economic gloom.

Colmar Brunton Polls

Colmar Brunton Poll: 5 October 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll: 14 September 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll: 22 August 2008

Colmar Brunton poll: 17 August 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll: 20 July 2008

Colmar Brunton Poll: 22 June 2008

c Political Animal 2008

Fairfax Nielson Poll: 19 July 2008

In what is possibly what Helen Clark would call a "rogue poll", Labour have closed to gap in the latest Fairfax/Nielson Poll. The trend has been a 20 point plus gap between Labour and National over the last 4 months with a couple of blips since sept 2007, so it is not as good for Labour as a look at today's single polling result might suggest.

Reinforcing that the Nielson poll might be a rogue one, the Roy Morgan Poll, out yesterday, continues the trend of a 20 plus point lead by National, the same trend established in the Nielson poll.

Poll watchers will be able to state a slip for support for National if there is a similar Nielson poll in August.

The Roy Morgan poll has been the more accurate one in predicting election results and the margins of the vote.


By TRACY WATKINS - The Dominion Post | Saturday, 19 July 2008

Labour has been thrown a lifeline by today's Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll showing the gap with National has closed to its narrowest since last year.

Though National would comfortably govern alone on today's poll results, Labour has clawed its way back from a 24-point deficit last month to 16 points today.

That may not be enough to turn around perceptions that the election is a foregone conclusion, but it has arrested a trend in which Labour's support fell below 30 per cent in the same poll last month, a result that shocked many Labour foot soldiers.

Prime Minister Helen Clark acknowledged Labour's recovery to 35 per cent would be a morale boost.

"I've been saying to people for a long time the feeling in the heartland was nothing like 29 or 30 per cent ... our people will be very motivated by these results."

Labour had been warned that its attacks on National leader John Key's credibility, including a holding of Tranz Rail shares and policies such as ACC, would backfire.

But today's poll shows the gap between Mr Key and Miss Clark as preferred prime minister narrowing to seven points, the closest since November, suggesting the attacks are having an effect.

And it reveals a lot of voters - 28 per cent - remain undecided about whom they would prefer as prime minister. Continued

Related Political Animal Reading

Roy Morgan Poll: 18 July 2008

c Political Animal 2008

Roy Morgan Poll : July 18 2008

The latest Roy Morgan Political Poll continues a trend started 12 months ago of a huge gap between National and Labour. The latest poll continues this trend.


Finding No. 4308 - Latest Roy Morgan Poll on New Zealand voter intention.: July 18, 2008

In mid July 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 52% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 31% (up 0.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.

Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 2.5% to its highest level since September 2006), Maori Party 1% (down 1.5%), United Future 1% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to a record low 87 (down 1) and the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating although up 3.7 points, is also at a near record low 85.7.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the Labour Government of Helen Clark (31%) failing to make any inroads into the lead of the National Party (52%).

“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (85.7, up 3.7 points) remains near its record low with an equal record majority of New Zealanders (64%) saying they expect bad economic times over the next 12 months.

“These results present Helen Clark with a huge challenge to gain re-election. At the latest, the New Zealand Election must be held by early November and time is quickly running out for Clark to find away to connect with the electorate.”

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 871 electors from June 30 — July 13, 2008.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	Labour	National	Progressive Party	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	41.3	20.9	1.7	10.4	7	6.7	n/a	7.1	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	41.1	39.1	1.16	5.72	5.3	2.67	2.12	1.51	2.48
MORGAN POLL
September 20 - October 2, 2005	36.5	41.5	1	4.5	9	3	1	1.5	3
October 4-16, 2005	39	40.5	1	5	7	3.5	2	1.5	0.5
October 18-31, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	6	9	3.5	1	1	1.5
November 1-14, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	7	7	3	2	2	1
November 15-27, 2005	39	40.5	1	5.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	1
November 28 - December 9, 2005	40	40	0.5	6	7.5	2.5	1	1.5	1
January 4-12, 2006	40.5	42.5	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	2	0.5	1.5
January 13—23, 2006	39	40.5	0	4.5	8.5	3	1.5	1.5	1.5
January 24 - February 5, 2006	38.5	39	0.5	5.5	9.5	3	1.5	2.5	0
February 7-19, 2006	40	40	0.5	3.5	10	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
February 22 - March 6, 2006	43	39	0.5	4.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1
March 7-19, 2006	42.5	41	0	3.5	7.5	2	2	1	0.5
March 20 - April 2, 2006	40	43	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1.5
April 3-16, 2006	41.5	40	1	3.5	7	2	2	2.5	0.5
April 17-30, 2006	40.5	40.5	0.5	3.5	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	-
May 1-14, 2006	39.5	41	0.5	5	7.5	3	1	1.5	1
May 15-28, 2006	41	44	0.5	3	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
May 29 — June 11, 2006	40	44.5	-	4.5	6.5	2	1	1.5	-
June 12-25, 2006	37	45	0.5	5	6.5	1.5	2	1.5	1
July 3-16, 2006	43	39	-	4.5	8	2	1	1.5	1
July 17 - 30, 2006	40	42	-	3.5	8.5	2	2	1	1
July 31 - August 13, 2006	39	41	-	3.5	9	3	2	1.5	1
August 14-27, 2006	38.5	44	0.5	4	7	1	2.5	1.5	1
August 28 - September 10, 2006	41	38	0.5	5.5	8.5	2	3	1.5	^
September 16 - October 1, 2006	36	41.5	-	7	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
October 2-15, 2006	40	40	^	5	8.5	1.5	1.5	2	1.5
October 16-29, 2006	38.5	41	^	3	8	3	2.5	1.5	2.5
October 30 — November 12, 2006	38.5	42.5	0.5	5	7.5	1.5	2.5	0.5	1.5
November 13 - 26, 2006	37.5	42.5	^	4.5	8	3	2	1.5	1
November 27 - December 12, 2006	37.5	44.5	0.5	4	9.5	2	1	0.5	0.5
January 3-21, 2007	41	41	0.5	4	7.5	1	2	1.5	1.5
January 23 - February 5, 2007	39.5	41.5	0.5	4	8	1.5	2	2.5	0.5
February 6-18, 2007	36	48.5	^	3	8.5	1.5	1.5	1	-
February 19 - March 4, 2007	36	45	0.5	2	8.5	1.5	3.5	2.5	0.5
March 5-18, 2007	37.5	45	^	4	7.5	1.5	3.5	1	-
March 19 - April 2, 2007	35.5	46	^	3.5	9.5	1	2.5	1	1
April 3-16, 2007	33.5	45.5	^	6	8.5	2	2	1	1.5
April 23 - May 6, 2007	36	49.5	^	4.5	6	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.5
May 7-20, 2007	32	49	0.5	4.5	7	1.5	2.5	1.5	1.5
May 21 - June 3, 2007	33.5	50.5	-	3.5	6.5	2	1.5	2	0.5
June 4-17, 2007	36	49.5	0.5	3	6.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1
June 18 - July 1, 2007	34	48.5	1	2.5	8.5	1.5	2	1	1
July 2-15, 2007	36	47	0.5	5	6.5	1	2	1.5	0.5
July 16-29, 2007	35	49	0.5	4	6	0.5	3	0.5	1.5
July 30 - August 12, 2007	31	50.5	0.5	4	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
August 20 - September 2, 2007	34	48	0.5	2.5	9.5	0.5	3	1	1
September 3-16, 2007	35	49	^	2.5	7.5	1	3	1.5	0.5
September 17-30, 2007	33	48.5	0.5	3	9.5	1.5	2.5	1	0.5
October 1-14, 2007	39	45.5	^	3	7.5	1.5	2	0.5	1
October 15-28, 2007	40.5	45	^	3.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	0.5
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007	34	48	^	5.5	7.5	1	2.5	1	0.5
November 12-25, 2007	35	48	0.5	5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
November 26-December 9, 2007	34.5	47.5	0.5	5	6	1.5	2	2	1
January 3-20, 2008	33.5	52	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	2	1	0.5
January 21-February 3, 2008	36.5	45.5	0.5	4	9	0.5	1.5	2	0.5
February 4-17, 2008	32.5	51.5	0.5	3	8	0.5	3	0.5	0.5
February 18-March 2, 2008	35	49.5	0.5	4	7	0.5	2	1	0.5
March 3-16, 2008	34	51	0.5	3	6.5	1	2	2	0.5
March 24-April 6, 2008	34.5	47	0.5	4	9	0.5	3	1.5	^
April 7 - 20, 2008	35.5	50	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	^
April 21 - May 4, 2008	35.5	49.5	^	4.5	6.5	1	2	1	^
May 5-18, 2008	35	49	^	4	7.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
May 19 - June 1, 2008	32	50.5	0.5	4	7	1	3	1.5	0.5
June 2 - 15, 2008	31.5	52.5	^	4	7	0.5	2	2	0.5
June 16 - 29, 2008	30.5	51.5	^	4	8	1	2.5	2	0.5
June 30-July 13, 2008	31	52	0.5	6.5	7.5	1	1	0.5	^

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary

Auckland

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%

July 2006	38	44.5	0.5	5.5	6	2	1.5	1.5	0.5
August 2006	38.5	43.5	^	3	8.5	2.5	2	1.5	0.5
September 2006	41	41.5	0.5	2.5	8	2.5	1.5	1.5	1
October 2006	35	44.5	^	5	9.5	2	2	2	^
November 2006	33	47	0.5	5.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
December 2006	36	46	^	4	9	1.5	2	1	0.5
January 2007	38	44	0.5	3.5	7.5	1.5	2	1.5	1.5
February 2007	34.5	49.5	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	3	1
March 2007	37.5	46	^	2.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
April 2007	35.5	45	^	2.5	10	2	2.5	2	0.5
May 2007	35	48	^	3.5	7	2	3	0.5	1
June 2007	30.5	54.5	^	3.5	6.5	1	1	2	1
July 2007	32.5	52	^	2	5.5	2	3	2	1
August 2007	30	53	^	4.5	6.5	1.5	2.5	1	1
September 2007	32.5	54.5	^	2	6.5	^	3.5	0.5	0.5
October 2007	35.5	51	^	2.5	6.5	1	2.5	1	^
November 2007	36	50	^	5	4.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
December 2007	33.5	51.5	^	4	5	1	2	2.5	0.5
January 2008	34	52	^	4	7	0.5	1	1.5	^
February 2008	36	48	0.5	2.5	8	0.5	2	2	0.5
March 2008	32.5	52	0.5	3	7.5	1	1.5	1.5	0.5
April 2008	32.5	51	^	3.5	8.5	^	1.5	2.5	0.5
May 2008	33.5	51.5	^	4	6.5	1	2	1	0.5
June 2008	32	51.5	0.5	3.5	7	0.5	2.5	2	0.5

Wellington

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	47.5	36	^	2.5	7.5	1.5	2	2	1
September — October 2006	50	32.5	0.5	1.5	8	2	1.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	44.5	36.5	^	1.5	9	3.5	2	1.5	1.5
January — February 2007	44	38	0.5	1.5	11.5	1	2	1	0.5
March — April 2007	41.5	38.5	^	4	8.5	2	4	0.5	1
May — June 2007	36.5	43.5	^	3	10.5	2	2	1.5	1
July — August 2007	40.5	41.5	0.5	2.5	9	2	2.5	1.5	^
September — October 2007	39.5	38	1	2.5	13.5	2	2	1	0.5
November — December 2007	34	41	0.5	3	13	2	2.5	2.5	1.5
January — February 2008	39.5	42	^	3.5	10	0.5	3	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40	43.5	^	1.5	11.5	0.5	1.5	1	0.5
May — June 2008	38	44.5	^	3	9	1	1.5	2.5	0.5

Christchurch

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	42	41	^	2.5	10	2	0.5	1	0.5
September — October 2006	39	40	0.5	6.5	8	1.5	0.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	43.5	36.5	1	5	8.5	2.5	0.5	2	1
January — February 2007	38	40	1	3	11	2.5	1	2.5	1
March — April 2007	33.5	43.5	1	6	10	2.5	1	1.5	1
May — June 2007	38	47.5	1	2.5	6.5	1	1.5	1	1
July — August 2007	36	46	1.5	5	7	1.5	1	^	2
September — October 2007	43	42.5	0.5	1	8	1	2	1	1
November — December 2007	39	47.5	1	3.5	7	0.5	0.5	1	^
January — February 2008	29	57	1	3	8	0.5	1	0.5	^
March — April 2008	39.5	44	1	2	8.5	1	1.5	1.5	1
May — June 2008	38	49.5	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	0.5	0.5

Other North Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	36.5	43.5	^	6	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
September — October 2006	34.5	42	^	8	7.5	1.5	4.5	1.5	0.5
November — December 2006	35.5	44.5	^	5	7	2.5	3.5	1	1
January — February 2007	37	45	^	5.5	6	1.5	3.5	1	0.5
March — April 2007	32	49.5	^	5	6.5	1	4	1.5	0.5
May — June 2007	33.5	51.5	^	5.5	4.5	1.5	2	1	0.5
July — August 2007	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	1	3.5	1	0.5
September — October 2007	32	49	^	4.5	8.5	1	4	0.5	0.5
November — December 2007	35.5	46.5	^	6	5.5	1	3.5	1	1
January — February 2008	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	0.5	4	0.5	1
March — April 2008	31	51.5	^	6	5.5	0.5	4	1	0.5
May — June 2008	31	51.5	^	5	6	0.5	4	1.5	0.5

Other South Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	41	40.5	^	3	11	2.5	0.5	^	1.5
September — October 2006	43.5	42	^	3.5	7	2	1	1	^
November — December 2006	40.5	42.5	1	2.5	9	3	1	^	0.5
January — February 2007	46.5	40.5	^	1.5	8.5	1.5	^	0.5	1
March — April 2007	40	44	^	3	10	1	1	0.5	0.5
May — June 2007	36	49.5	^	3	7	1	1	1.5	1
July — August 2007	38	46	1	3	7	1	1.5	0.5	2
September — October 2007	35.5	49.5	^	1.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	0.5
November — December 2007	39	44.5	^	5	9	2	^	0.5	^
January — February 2008	34.5	51	^	3.5	9	0.5	^	1	0.5
March — April 2008	40.5	49.5	^	1.5	5	1.5	1.5	^	0.5
May — June 2008	33	52	^	3.5	9.5	0.5	1	0.5	^

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Aug 20-Sep 2, 2007	Sep 3-16, 2007	Sep 17-30, 2007	Oct 1-14, 2007	Oct 15-28, 2007	Oct 29-Nov 11, 2007	Nov 12-25, 2007	Nov 26-Dec 9, 2007	Jan 3-20, 2008	Jan 21-Feb 3, 2008	Feb 4-17, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51.5	54	49.5	53	50.5	43.5	47	47.5	46.5	46	47
Wrong direction	35.5	32.5	34.5	32	33	37.5	37	38	39	38.5	41
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	121.5	115	121	117.5	106	110	109.5	107.5	107.5	106
Can’t say	13	13.5	16	15	16.5	19	16	14.5	14.5	15.5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Feb 18-Mar 2, 2008	Mar 3-16, 2008	Mar 24- Apr 6, 2008	Apr 7-20, 2008	April 21-May 4, 2008	May 5-18, 2008	May 19-June 1, 2008	June 2-15, 2008	June 16-29, 2008	June 30-July 13, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	52.5	45.5	47.5	50.5	44.5	38	38	42.5	37	36.5
Wrong direction	34	37.5	37.5	34.5	40.5	44.5	44.5	40.5	49	49.5
Roy Morgan GCR#	118.5	108	110	116	104.5	93.5	93.5	102	88	87
Can’t say	13.5	17	15	15	15	17.5	17.5	17	14	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Finding No. 4308 is taken from Computer Report No. 2253

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.