Burger Fuel Worldwide Ltd: FY 2011 Profit Commentary

You might think that since Burger Fuel Worldwide Ltd [BFW.NZX] have made a maiden profit of just under $34,000.00 in the year to March 31 2011 after 4 years of trying and millions spent getting there that I would be starting to sing the company's praises from the roof-tops but I am still pretty damb negative even after their first result with black ink.

Lets have a look at some of the key figures:

Profit of $33,513.00 up on last years $552,983.00 loss.

Revenue of $8.326 million down on last years $8.722 million

Middle East stores performing well.

$1,213,785 in cash & no debt.

On first look and if you ignore that it took 4 years to get here, the signs look OK.

Heres the fly on the burger bun though, while the losses have been pared back by more than half a million that has been done by cost cutting rather than an improvement in the operation of the business and in absence of revenue growth, the company, who is a franshisor and gets it revenue from a portion of sales from franchisees, continues to put the focus in its profit releases on how much sales at their franchisees stores have increased rather than focusing on the bottom-line at the parent company.

Fine, revenue is supposed to increase as sales at its franchisees stores grow but we just haven't seen this yet and investors need to know just when the current $8.2 million odd is going to be translated into a decent sustained profit.

Management are very bullish about expansion in the Middle East but investors should note that we have seen this kind of exuberance before - in terms of bullish growth projections in Australasia pre-IPO - and it has turned into nothing but broken promises.

We need to see some good sustained profits before I can give this company a pass mark.

4 out of 10.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


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c Share Investor 2011

Burger Fuel Worldwide: Losses Mount

Burger Fuel Worldwide Ltd [BFW.NZX] has just racked up its 7th consecutive half year loss to 30 Sept 2010 since listing in mid 2007.

Typical of management, the company is highlighting sales revenue from franchised stores, which has risen sharply due to store openings in the Middle East and downplaying the franchise income - which is what the company will eventually make a profit on - which has increased by a small fraction.

Key Points

Loss of $219,000 down 26% on lasts half's $296,000

Flagship Kings Cross store closed

Middle East stores performing well.

Australasia stores flat

Set to exit remaining Sydney store.

$1,153,153 cash left in bank

Profit possibly set for 2012 - 2013

The $219,022 loss is a 26% improvement on last years comparable figure so at least this is improving but the company is struggling in New Zealand and has largely abandoned its Australian operations which were a big focus of growth when they announced their IPO. Their Flagship store in Kings Cross has been closed to save money.

The focus from 2010 onwards is growing in the Middle East. Well done to change tack so quickly but the homework just hadn't been well done before a couple of million dollars of shareholder money was lost in Australia.

Shareholders will have to question as to whether the Middle East is going to be any different from the Australian experience but thus far it is looking a little more promising than our more competitive and more business savvy cousins across the Tasman.

Management have focused the 2010 calendar year on pruning business costs and have managed to save $68,000 in the last half year .

Significantly management have changed their expansion model so will grow by means of Area Development or Master License Agreements. This is where the licensee is responsible for all capital and operational costs. This will clearly allow the company to grow quicker and cheaper where it sees the opportunity.

Management indicate they see limited scope for expansion in Australasia and see a patchy and uncertain 2011 ahead.

There is no indication as to when the company will make its maiden profit but management indicated that "the company expects to reach profitability in the near future".

It looks to me that 2012 - 2013 could be that near future.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

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Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
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Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download BFW Company Reports


From Fishpond.co.nz



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c Share Investor 2010

Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care

Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ],the retirement village and aged care provider, is one of the NZXs best performing companies and historically it has increased earnings by at least 10% for each of the last 10 years.

Its full year result to March 31 2010 was up 16% on last years 2009 full year and indications are that these sorts of results are likely to continue for the foreseeable future considering the increasing age demographics for the New Zealand population and the seemingly unparalleled popularity of their offering to their prospective customers.

New Zealand has and will remain an important area of growth in revenue and profit for the long term and this has been stated by Ryman management on many occasions.

The decision announced today at the Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM.NZ] annual meeting to start looking at property in Australia to build one of their villages is a two edged sword for the company and its shareholders.

In an interview with Ryman Chief Financial Officer, Gordon Macleod coming up next week at Share Investor I put the question of expansion into Australia before today's announcement and the answer, now somewhat academic, will be adding to today's news.

On the one hand the company has a good business model, is brilliantly managed and Australia is a vast untapped market for them but on the other hand Australia is littered with the corpses of listed companies that have tried to expand there and have headed back with their tails between their legs and millions of dollars less in their pockets.

Ask management at The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZ], Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ], Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] and a whole host of other companies that thought they could foot it in a much more competitive market. Australia has been the bogeyman of failure for New Zealand businesses looking for more opportunities for growth.

There have also been successes. Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ], Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ], Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZ] (after new management and a number of years) and others set out to achieve their goals and promises to shareholders for more growth across the ditch and have done well for shareholders in terms of returns.

One of the major stumbling blocks for Kiwi companies expanding across the Tasman has been their lack of research and the tendency to go full steam ahead without testing the market in a small way first. Significantly the aforementioned failures all bought standalone businesses (apart form BFW) and thought they could run them in a similar fashion to their New Zealand business model. The successful ones all tried their new businesses in Australia in a small way and grew a base from their initial success.

Management at Ryman have indicated that they have done their research for years and they are going to develop one village and see how it goes before committing any further shareholder cash to growth there:

“We have been carefully studying the Australian market for several years,” and we see it as the next logical step in the growth of the company. The Ryman model will be relatively unique in the Australian market.”

“We are in a strong financial position and the management team is ready to take this next step.”

“Shareholders can be reassured that we will be taking one step at a time, and that we will be very focussed on getting the first village successfully established.” Ryman Chairman Dr David Kerr at 2010 Annual Meeting.

Ryman shareholders should indeed be pleased that the company is taking the softly, softly approach to Australian expansion but cautious nonetheless that the outcome of expansion in OZ could be disappointing.

This company has been well managed in the past and I am mostly pleased about the announcement today, apart from the reservations I pointed out.

If the Australian move is executed with as much care and consideration - subject to proper research by RYM management and taking into account the vast differences in business, investment, employment practices and other country specific variables - as has been in New Zealand the company and shareholders are going to be richly rewarded in the long term.

I look forward to positive results from our Aussie branch over the next few years .

Disclosure: I own MHI, MFT, PPL RYM, WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

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Discuss RYM @ Share Investor Forum



c Share Investor 2010

Burgerfuel: Dubai Marketing Hype!!!

Many of my readers will be aware that I have followed BurgerFuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] since its listing in June 2007 and if you have then you will also be aware that I have been a vocal critic of the way the company was brought to the market and the way they have done business and treated their shareholders.

The opening of a store in Dubai yesterday continued the tradition of the company over-promising and under-delivering:

"People from all over the world will now get to experience the BurgerFuel culture and food and this will lead to many opportunities for us. In many ways this represents the beginning of our international journey". Josef Roberts, CEO BFW July 2010

The company plans to expand rapidly in Australia - having 100 outlets within five years - and then move into Britain and the United States. Josef Roberts Director BFW May 2007

BurgerFuel founder, Chris Mason, says this store represents a foundation stone for the company's overseas development and its high-traffic location will not just generate interest in the brand in Australia, but further afield as well.

"Kings Cross is very much a tourist Mecca, so this new store will be a showroom for our brand and the BurgerFuel formula."

"The Australian market poses some challenges for us, but the growing sales and great response from the locals to our Newtown store, which opened last December, shows there is a market for us across the Tasman." Chris Mason, BurgerFuel founder, October 2007.

Perhaps company expansion in Dubai will be different to promises of expansion in New Zealand, Australia and other parts of the world that have been, thus far, utter failures.

Prospectus promises of such growth were shouted from the rooftops and this is where the company value put on the IPO was calculated from. The market of course has decided that the company is worth way less than half of the IPO value and I think that is overstating things by half.

The company just simply has to deliver on promises made or face the wrath of the market and negative bastards like me.

The Dubai flourish is just repeating the same old lame marketing formula that may be good way to sell burgers but just doesn't fit with running a business listed on the stockmarket.

Better to under-promise and over-deliver, like they do with their Franchisee's food.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free




c Share Investor 2010

Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis

I pointed out last week that Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] 2010 full year profit should be better than the 2009 result because of the surge in the growth of the fast food sector over the last couple of years and they have done better, with a narrower loss of just over half a million.

The vast bulk of revenue for this franchising company still comes via direct sales from company owned stores rather than royalties from franchisees but these royalties should rise as the company expands in the Middle East where it has done exceptionally well.

In New Zealand same stores sales for franchisee/company owned stores increased by just over 5%. When a new store in Mission Bay is included this increase amounts to over 12%. A good result but on a par with the likes of Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] which increased sales in the 2010 year by just under 5% (see 2010 Annual report for details)

No stores were opened in New Zealand during 2010 and it appears saturation point may have been reached with 27 stores a reasonable number given the size of the premium end of the fast food market that BFW operates in.

A big worry for Burger Fuel management will be its two beach-head stores in Sydney, Australia one of which is situated in Kings Cross.

There was much fanfare about the Kings Cross store being a hugely visible entry into OZ, with big expansion plans, with an emphasis by management on the marketing possibilities that the high exposure site had for foreign visitors to the "Cross" spreading the Burger Fuel word on a global scale.

Well that hasn't happened and as I pointed out in 2007 the store operating costs would be a huge burden on sustainable profitability and that, unfortunately, has turned out to be the case.

Looking at the 2011 year the company is set to grow in the Middle East but just get by in New Zealand.

Australia will be a big burden on such a small company and management will need to focus on costs or consider picking up sticks across the ditch. There is more and slicker competition in the gourmet burger business in Sydney than back on home turf.

Expansion of the company will be further hamstrung by its ever decreasing cash in the bank and as management have said they are relying on expansion of units rather than same store sales to get to profitability.

Shareholders can only hope.


Key Points from BFW 2010 Full Year

1. $552,983 loss - 22% better than last year.

2. $8,722,000 up 17% on 2009

3. Cash reserves down 25% to 1,159,000

4. Earnings per share -1.04c VS -$1.34 last year

5. 2 new stores in Dubai & Saudi Arabia doing well.

6. Australia failing to fire and with significant overheads mounting.

7. 210,000 shares issued to directors during the year.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free




c Share Investor 2010

Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview

Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] should be releasing its 2010 full year results soon, if not this week and BFW investors and the market as a whole will be looking for a vast improvement on the 2009 result.

A $700,000.00 loss on revenue of $8 million for last year should be pared back markedly given the fortunes of other fast food companies operating in New Zealand. McDonalds, Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ], Subway and a whole host of other quick service restaurant icons have done well during the current recession as consumers have moved downmarket from eating out at more expensive food offers as wallets and budgets have been squeezed.

Look though for an impact on the bottomline because of expansion costs in the Middle East and a subsequent evaporation of cash in the bank as a result.

More capital could be needed for any further significant expansion and the 2007 prospectus indicated that most of the growth would come from growing store numbers rather than sales per unit.

BFW gets its revenue from a percentage cut (around 8%) of sales per store and on current form the company would need to at least double revenue from the current $8 million to start making a decent profit in the low seven figure range.

That sort of result depends on opening more stores and that means more capital needed to expand, even though it is a franchisee/franchisor model.

The company is coming up to its 3 year anniversary of being listed on the NZAX board and has yet to turn a profit or show any of the overwhelmingly positive promise for results that management shouted from the rooftops pre IPO.

The 2010 result will show us whether the company is closer to achieving that and it will give investors an opportunity to compare 3 years of financials to help get a more accurate view as to whether BFW is moving in that direction or in fact has the potential to do that sometime in the future.

BFW shares are currently priced at 39c and are rarely traded.


Footnote  BFW are releasing their 2010 full year results Monday 14 June.



Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free



c Share Investor 2010

Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis

The Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] 2009 half year profit to 30 September is more of the same from this company, continued and mounting losses.

Revenue is up strongly but so are expenses, and the loss, while down by more than 50% to $NZ 296,000, is still a loss and is difficult to compare with last year's half year loss because that figure could be stacked with IPO expenses and other establishment costs -this is not clear from the accounts - and does include a more fulsome period of new store construction by new franchisees.

Cash reserves have dwindled down to below $1.5 million, from over $2 million in the previous corresponding period. While still conservatively geared at a debt to equity ratio of around 32% that cash balance is going to dwindle if the company is to get back on track and deliver the growth they promised in their July 2008 IPO.

As franchisors the only significant income BFW are currently receiving is their cut of franchisee sales and advertising income. The promised windfall of franchise and management fees are paltry at best.

More money was earned from cash in the bank than franchising and construction fees combined.



Key Points from BFW 2009 Half Year

1. $296,000 loss - down 54%

2. $4.2 million revenue - up 19%

3. Cash reserves down 25%

4. Earnings per share -52c VS -$1.26 last year

5. No new stores added

6. 2 stores in Australia incurring significant losses.

*Download the BFW half year Financials & other docs @ Share Investor Forum - Register free to download.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
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Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
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Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free




c Share Investor 2009

Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide

This Stock of the Week will be a surprise to many because I have been very critical of this company since its IPO listing in July 2007. Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ], the "gourmet" burger franchisor company that collects royalties off franchisees as a means of revenue -but currently derives more than half its revenue from food and beverage sales at two company owned stores-and has limped from a failed, over-priced IPO and incurred big but dwindling losses along the way.

Its cash reserves are almost exhausted and its stated reason for their IPO, attracting more franchisees to gain revenue growth for the franchisor, has come to a grinding halt because of "capital restraints".

All negative so far, but wait there's more! Some positive stuff!

There is a chance that Burger Fuel, management could pull things off sometime in the future and make a good sustained profit.

One of the reasons I picked this stock was its share price. It is getting close but not yet at, its true value. At 32c it is roughly a third of its $1 IPO price. There is little interest in and few buyers lined up as at market close on Friday 19, with the first cab off the rank offering 10c a share and the lowest 1c - the lowest ever bids for this stock, so a clear opportunity exists.

Burger Fuel isn't one of those solid stocks you would buy and not expect to lose money, it is purely speculative and high risk but if you have, like me , been watching the trials and tribulations of this company over the last 2 years, and thinking about buying some, now would be the opportune time to start thinking about it.

Anything less than 15c would be a good starting point.

Good luck!


Stock of the Week Series

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Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


Burgerfuel: Dubai Marketing Hype
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free





c Share Investor 2009

Burger Fuel Worldwide: Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call

If you want to see how the Burger Fuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] financial's stack up I have included a full collection of data out June 19, 2009 courtesy of Thomson Financial First Call Global/ASB Securities.

You will find balance sheets, ratios, charts, shareholder returns and all the Burger Fuel info you could poke a hot chip at. (see teaser below but download the full package at Share Investor Forum - you must join to download. It is free and takes less than a minute. I might do this for other companies if there is sufficient interest.

I only mention this because the company is getting close to my purchase price. Last sold at 32c and the next bid in at 10c (a low for the company) with one optimistic fellow offering 1c per share for 100,000 shares!

Key Measures for Burger Fuel Worldwide Value N/R Risk 2 Lower risk Growth N/R Income 5 Lowest VALUE Company Market Sector Aspect Earnings Model -- 0.89 0.88 P/E ratio -- 7.44 12.0 P/B ratio 4.38 0.85 1.68 P/E Growth Ratio -- 1.68 1.67 P/S Ratio 2.18 1.64 0.39 INCOME Company Market Sector Dividend Yield -- 7.7% 5.2% Franking -- -- -- Tax adj Dividend Yield -- 5.6% 4.1% Dividend Stability 0.0% 0.0% 89.3% RISK Company Market Sector Beta 0.67 0.98 0.74 Current Ratio 3.13 3.85 1.09 Quick Ratio 2.86 3.12 0.39 Earnings Stability -- 54.5% 53.7% Debt/Equity ratio 3.6% 0.0% 50.5% Interest coverage (x) -42.8 4.49 2.28 GROWTH RATES 10yr 5yr 1yr 2yr Fcst Sales -- -- 76.1% -- Cash Flow -- -- 52.6% -- Earnings -- -- 66.8% -- Dividends -- -- -- -- Book Value -- -- -16.4% -- Previous Close 52 week high 52 week low $0.32 $0.64 $0.20 P/E Ratio -- Sector Food & Staples Retailing Market Cap $17.0 Million Key Dates Listed 27/07/2007 Balance Date 31 March AGM -- Total Shareholder Return (avg annual rate) 1yr 3yr 5yr 10yr -20.0% -- -- -- Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share) Curr -- -- EPS -1.3 -- -- PE(x) -- -- -- DPS 0.0 -- -- Yield(%) -- -- -- Source: Thomson First Call Global Estimates

Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry
Burger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss this Topic @ Share Investor Forum




c Share Investor 2009