Broker Stock Picks for 2013

I made my 2013 stock picks back in late November and some of you maybe wondering what the professionals are thinking for next year.

Keep in mind, just like me they will have their biases and they may or may not indicate as to whether they own the stock they are picking - they should.

Some interesting picks that I will comment on latter in this spot.


2013 Picks

Goldman Sachs
* SkyCity
* Ryman
* Telecom
* Infratil
* Kathmandu

McDouall Stuart
* Abano
* Diligent
* Ryman
* Skellerup
* Cue Energy

Forsyth Barr
* Fletcher Building
* F&P Appliance
* Chorus
* Sky TV
* Ryman

First NZ Capital
* Fletcher Building
* Mainfreight
* Chorus
* National Property Trust
* NZ Oil & Gas

MacQuarie Securities
* Chorus
* Pumpkin Patch
* Ryman
* Mainfreight
* Transpacific Industries

Hamilton Hindin Greene
* F&P Healthcare
* Westpac
* Chorus
* Nuplex
* Tower

Craigs Investment Partners
* Chorus
* Auckland Airport
* Ryman
* Fletcher Building
* Westpac

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related

Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

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c  Share Investor 2013

Telecom New Zealand Ltd: Chorus or Bust

Telecom New Zealand Ltd [TEL.NZX] has been in the news for the past week because the government has announced that they are going to be the company that will roll out the majority of the taxpayer subsidised Fast Fibre Network (FFN) that will apparently provide far greater speeds for our internet services than we currently have.

This means that Telecom NZ must split into two separate companies in order to satisfy the rules and regulations that government have set down for the implementation of the FFN.

This will mean that Chorus, the part of Telecom whose business it is to build and maintain telecommunications infrastructure for themselves and other players and its retail arm, Telecom Retail - the part of the company that most customers of Telecom deal directly with and where they buy their mobile, internet or fixed line products - must be split into two completely separate companies. This means separate listings on the stockmarket for both companies and a duplication of a whole host of management from the floor sweeper middle manager right up to the CEO.

Of course this means cost to separate and will be bourne by TEL shareholders in the first instance and customers through higher prices as a secondary affect of this.

Investors will of course be wondering to themselves, well which company of the two should I invest in and if I am already a TEL shareholder which stock should I ditch, if any?

In my humble and not so humble opinion I would put my money of the Chorus part of the business. It is the part of Telecom that has a huge monopoly through the domination of their telecommunications infrastructure - copper and fibre cable criss-crossing the country - and as I really love monopolies this part of the companies business will do well, especially as they appear to have a unregulated first 10 years where they can set prices and the only arbiter of consumer fairness will be the usually intemperate Commerce Commission.

While Telecom's retail division has a few million customers that the new Chorus will probably look after, competition in the telecoms retail area should eventually keep all important margins down from present levels and that will impact on the profitability of the new separate retail division of Telecom.

The split coming at the end of 2011 will mean investors in Telecom will receive stakes in the two new separate Telecom entities and will probably do well if they bought the companies shares at the right price.

It might be wise though for them to consider selling shares in the retail company and stock up on Chorus shares.

My pick is that Telecom will take this opportunity to ditch the Telecom name altogether, a name wrapped up in so much negative history that their retail business would do better to leave that all behind.

Judging by their recent logo shoosh-up it is bound to be something silly.

I'm picking Burst!


Telecom Split Details

Telecom Split

Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first half profit review
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first quarter profit review
Telecom Chart: Lazarus Recovery on lower volume
Telecom maybe oversold
Telecom NZ Share Price has "Jumped the Shark"
I was Wrong... sort of
Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporate PR
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom
Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download TEL Company Reports
Discuss TEL at Share Investor Forum - Register free


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c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX] shares have had an amazing run over the last month or so and yesterday closed up 16c or 6.8% to finish trading at $2.435 on news that they were to receive the bulk of the contract for the Governments high speed internet rollout. The share price has taken off from $1.95 in mid April, a rise of almost 27% on yesterdays close.

With a share price not reached since the end of 2010 the stock still looks like getting overcooked to me and investors wishing to take a punt on anything that may come out of the fibre network rollout may want to temper their excitement because any additional revenue coming from it is many years away.

For the majority of the last year shares have been trading below 2 bucks and this is on 4 pieces of news out a month ago ( 1, 2, 3, 4 ) mostly related to taxpayer funded broadband.

The market is excited by the prospects for Telecom that subsidised broadband might bring but the payback for investment by the taxpayer and by the company itself is uncertain especially given the low speeds the company indicate their new fibre might bring and the restrictions and frustrations that will bring for customers as they realise they will not be able to do even a fraction of the things their mates overseas have been able to do for a decade or more already and that future speeds for global internet speeds (sans NZ) will be hundreds of times faster than ours.

Telecom as a company will have to be split into 2 separate companies, each presumably with its own NZX listing. Investors clearly see more value in the company as two seperate entities and see windfall profits if the company splits.

Market watchers though are ignoring the bungles the company has mismanaged with the introduction of new services and technology in the past so I remain skeptical of share price increases based on the possibility that the fibre roll-out will bear some positive fruit.

Until then performance for the company is likely to be more along the lines of weakening revenue, smaller profits and cost cutting.

The share probably has some more northwards trajectory to go based on overseas investors taking the news in overnight and the speculation may well propel the share well above current levels, especially as the split of the company will see investors have shares in two rather than one listed company.

Nice for short to medium term investors but long termers may want to wait for actual results from business created by the "new" Telecom.

Share Price Alert Series

Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first half profit review
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first quarter profit review
Telecom Chart: Lazarus Recovery on lower volume
Telecom maybe oversold
Telecom NZ Share Price has "Jumped the Shark"
I was Wrong... sort of
Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporate PR
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom
Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download TEL Company Reports
Discuss TEL at Share Investor Forum - Register free


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c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX] shares have had an amazing run over the last month or so where the share price has taken off from $1.95 in mid April to finish trading at $2.33 yesterday, a rise of almost 20%.

With a share-price last reached in February - a 52 week high for the stock - the stock looks like getting overcooked to me and investors wishing to take a punt on anything that may come out of the fibre network rollout may want to temper their excitement because any additional revenue coming from it is many years away.

For the majority of the last year shares have been trading below 2 bucks and this is on 4 pieces of news out a month ago ( 1, 2, 3, 4 ) mostly related to taxpayer funded broadband.

The market is excited by the prospects for Telecom that subsidised broadband might bring but the payback for investment by the taxpayer and by the company itself is uncertain especially given the low speeds the company indicate their new fibre might bring and the restrictions and frustrations that will bring for customers as they realise they will not be able to do even a fraction of the things their mates overseas have been able to do for a decade or more already and that future speeds for global internet speeds (sans NZ) will be hundreds of times faster than ours.

I have a gut feeling the increased buying has come about from speculation that the company will win the majority of the tenders to rollout taxpayer funded broadband and if this happens Telecom as a company will have to be split into 2 separate companies, each presumably with its own NZX listing. Investors clearly see more value in the company as two seperate entities and see windfall profits if the company splits.

There is of course no guarantee that Telecom will win the majority of the government contracts, but more likely than not it will, and history typically shows that investors do benefit from company splits of this kind.

Market watchers though are ignoring the bungles the company has mismanaged with the introduction of new services and technology in the past so I remain skeptical of share price increases based on the possibility that the fibre roll-out will bear some positive fruit.

Until then performance for the company is likely to be more along the lines of weakening revenue, smaller profits and cost cutting.

Buy closer to 2 bucks on the inevitable pullback.


Share Price Alert Series


Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first half profit review
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first quarter profit review
Telecom Chart: Lazarus Recovery on lower volume
Telecom maybe oversold
Telecom NZ Share Price has "Jumped the Shark"
I was Wrong... sort of
Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporate PR
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom
Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download TEL Company Reports
Discuss TEL at Share Investor Forum - Register free


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Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2

Lets face it, shares for Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX] have been a pig for years but especially for the last year where they have traded around the 2 dollar mark and touched $1.78 last June.

For the last 6 weeks shares have been trading below 2 bucks but over the last 5 trading days shares have shot from $1.95 to finish up 10c yesterday at $2.15 - a 10% rise. This is on 4 pieces of news out over the last week ( 1, 2, 3, 4 ) mostly related to taxpayer funded broadband.

The market seems excited by the prospects for Telecom that subsidised broadband might bring but the payback for investment by the taxpayer and by the company itself is uncertain especially given the low speeds the company indicate their new fibre might bring and the restrictions and frustrations that will bring for customers as they realise they will not be able to do even a fraction of the things their mates overseas have been able to do for a decade or more already and that future speeds for global internet speeds (sans NZ) will be hundreds of times faster than ours.

Market watchers are ignoring the bungles the company has mismanaged with the introduction of new services and technology in the past so I remain skeptical of share price increases based on the possibility that the fibre roll-out will bear some positive fruit.

With a 52 week high of $2.33 reached in February the share price looks like getting overcooked to me and investors wishing to take a punt on anything that may come out of the fibre network rollout may want to temper their excitement because any additional revenue coming from it is many years away.

Until then performance for the company is likely to be more along the lines of weakening revenue, smaller profits and cost cutting.

Buy below 2 bucks on the inevitable pullback.


Share Price Alert Series

Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Telecom New Zealand 2011 first half profit review
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first quarter profit review
Telecom Chart: Lazarus Recovery on lower volume
Telecom maybe oversold
Telecom NZ Share Price has "Jumped the Shark"
I was Wrong... sort of
Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporate PR
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom
Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download TEL Company Reports
Discuss TEL at Share Investor Forum - Register free


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Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back

It has been nearly 4 months since the Share Investor 2011 Stock Picks and I thought it might be appropriate now to look back at how those picks have done. Please keep in mind that my criteria for picking stocks is long term gains and also that the stockmarket as a whole has risen in the 4 months (see 6 month chart below) that has passed so any gains must factor in these two key points.

I am discovering any gains and losses from my picks as I write this post rather than looking at them first and then making a decision to publish, so you, dear readers, will discover how well or badly I did as I did.



I will outline below what price the stock was picked at and how much it has gained or lost since the stock picks came out on December 17 2010.

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking back


Picks from the NZX

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH.NZX]



Picked at $3.06c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.23, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.06c.

0% gain.

Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]


Picked at $2.38c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.16, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $2.50c.

A 5% gain.


Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[SKC.NZX]



Picked at $3.23c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 8c net dividend, and reaching a post pick high of $3.50, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.41c.

A 8% gain.


Charlies Group Ltd
[CHA.NZX]

Picked at 17.5c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of 28c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 27c.

A 54% gain.


Michael Hill International Ltd
[MHI.NZX]

Picked at 85c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 1.5c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of 92c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 88c.

A 5% gain.


New Zealand Refining Ltd
[NZR.NZX]

Picked at $4.20c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 10c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of $5.20c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $4.75c.

A 20% gain.


New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[NZO.NZX]

Picked at 86c on December 17 2011, reaching a post pick high of 94c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 94c.

A 10% gain.

Minor NZX Picks

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX]

A 42% gain.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ]

A 14% gain

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX]

A 6% gain.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX]

A 6% loss.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX]

A 15% gain.



ASX Picks

Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] A 10% loss.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX] A 3% gain.
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX] A 5% loss.


Nasdaq

Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A 0% gain.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

Returns ranged from a 10% loss for Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] up to a 54% gain for Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. Averaged out my 2011 share picks have returned an average net return of 10.33% over slightly less than 4 months if I included them in equal portions in a portfolio. This compares to a return of 4% for the NZX50 as a whole. (see NZX50 chart at top of post)

The market overall appears to be overvalued to me - with the exception of one or two stocks that have lost some value - and I have not bought any shares for well over a year now. My own portfolio has gained 13% since I began re-tracking it for this blog back in October 2010 and I cant see the market gaining much more for 2011 due to very poor global economic conditions and uncertainty as to where the globe is heading in the short to medium term.

Disclosure : I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $9.73
Usually ships in 24 hours


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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Telecom New Zealand 2011 first half profit review

The Telecom New Zealand Ltd [TEL.NZX] half year 2011 result out today of NZ$164 million net profit after tax is 32.2% lower than the result for the same period last year. This comes on gross revenue of $2,583 billion, down 3.3% on last year.

This comes in a year of turmoil for the company where its share price plunged and regulatory issues continued to hamper growth and future planning.

Telecom CEO, Paul Reynolds said , ‘Telecom’s delivery of the turnarounremains on track, with EBITDA growth in the second quarter. The quarter saw progress on a range of fronts, including the addition of 60,000 customers in mobile, Telecom Retail attracting 64% of broadband connection growth, reduced fixed line churn and the success of our cost out programme".

I see more of the same for full year 2011. With a stagnant to dropping revenue base the only way profit can grow slightly or stay at current levels is to cut operational costs further. Telecom have tried to do this over the last half but with mixed success as clearly the bottomline shows this.

Shareholders might like to look for more positive news from the company for the medium term 2012-2014 as their foray into the Government fast broadband initiative rolls out and could well mean an end to falling sales.

Until then expect the status quo


Key Points

Net profit: 166,000; Down 32.2%; 243,000

Total operating revenue and other gains
(before adjusting items):

2,583,000; Down 3.3%; 2,671,000

Earnings per share: 9 cps; 13 cps

Second Quarter Dividend: 3.5 cps

Increased competition impacting on margins

2011 HY Profit Detail

Transcript from Investor Briefing
Management commentary
Presentation
Accounts


Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Telecom New Zealand 2011 first quarter profit review
Telecom Chart: Lazarus Recovery on lower volume
Telecom maybe oversold
Telecom NZ Share Price has "Jumped the Shark"
I was Wrong... sort of
Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporate PR
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom
Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download TEL Company Reports
Discuss TEL at Share Investor Forum - Register free


From Fishpond.co.nz



Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks

Originally posted 17 Dec 2010

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks

It is that time of the year, to pick stocks for 2011 and time for my stock picking monkey to come out of a self imposed 12 months hiatus for another stab at the stockmarket pages.

It is the 4th edition this year and once again impacted by looking after my 16 month old girl - she had no direct say in what the stock picking monkey chose for 2011 but will be encouraged to throw a dart or two at the end of 2011.

In the face of a continued global recession, an uncertain economic future that had a big impact at the end of 2009 and continues today 2011 might be be harder to pick than 2010.

2010 was a much better year for stocks than 2009, with stock prices overall coming well off 2009 lows.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest.


Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks


Picks from the NZX

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH.NZX]



I will kick off my picks with a company that I still consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years and one I included in the 2008, 2009 & 2010 Share Investor stock picks, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, the health care products provider.

I had it as a pick for 2010 and it is down around 20c from this time in 2010, so that makes it a better pick than last year considering its good long term prospects.

Company forecasts for the 2011 year are understandably sketchy because of the US dollar volatility but US revenues are set to grow significantly, as they have done for the past decade.

Any significant movement in the value of the NZ dollar means a substantial rise or fall in profit, as the bulk of company revenues are in the US dollar and 2011 half year profit results have been impacted significantly from the weakening US dollar.

Fisher's profits are largely immune from the current market turmoil as buyers simply have to have the products that the health care company makes regardless of a global recession.

A future global player in the sector they operate in.


Fisher & Paykel Heathcare @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare & the US Dollar
Mondrian Investment Partners take stake in Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: 2010 Full Year Profit rests on Foreign exchange movement
Long Term View: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Stock of the Week: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Analysis - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Schroder Investment Management takes big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare stake
Long VS Short: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Big Fisher & Paykel Healthcare trades a curious taleWhy did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Drinking and Trading
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of two companies
FPH downgrade masks good performance

Discuss FPH @ Share Investor Forum
Download FPH Company Reports


Disc I own FPH shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]

Currently Xero Ltd, the online accounting software company, is a niche player in an industry dominated by global players like Quicken and MYOB and it increased its customer base significantly in 2010 and looks set to build on 2010's gains.

It is presently building its customer base to get "critical mass".

The buzz in the tech industry surrounding Xero is reflected in the amount of support the company has from insiders and it could be well a big player in time to come. The company has had some significant financial backers from those who know Xero well but Mums and Dads are still largely absent from the shareholder register.

It has yet to make any money but is expected to break even in the latter half of 2011 and should start to see some profit in the next few years.

XRO is a little riskier than most investments and the share price has increased well over the latter part of 2010 so that risk increases slightly.

If the hype is only partially matched by concrete results this share will take off.



Xero @ Share Investor

Xero Ltd: 2011 HY Loss looking promising
From Xero to Hero?
Stock of the Day: Xero Ltd
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero?
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum
Download Xero Company Reports


Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[SKC.NZX]



Sky City Entertainment has had a brilliant 2010, with a record FY 2010 profit at the hands of an inspirational leader and a number of strategies planned and executed to produce pleasing results for shareholders. Like 2009, the share price of the company has not however tracked its increased fortunes, plumbing the depths of below NZ$2.80 and settling of late in the low 3 dollar range. It looks to be good value as a result of this low share price relative to its prospects.

There is promise however for 2011. The Rugby World Cup will boost SKC's 4 Casinos and CEO Nigel Morrison has indicated double digit growth for FY 2011.

Buy on weakness if this company has already been in your sights.



Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

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Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
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Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
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Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster
Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports


Disc I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Charlies Group Ltd
[CHA.NZX]

Not a stock I expected to pick after being a big critic of it over the last few years. Charlies Group Ltd has managed to wangle its way into my affections for 2011. It did this simply by finally showing a profit for the full year to June 2010. Previously to this it had been mired in mounting losses and a number of capital raisings but their strategy of growing the business over the last 3-4 years has paid off. They recently expanded in a vast push across OZ into over 750 Coles Supermarkets and this gives them the leverage there to increase sales manifold times over 2010 levels.

The share price, at 17.5c, is almost 3x more than it was at its lowest level in 2010 but prospects for the company look good due to Australia.

Buy on thinly traded weakness.

Charlies Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: Charlies Group CEO Stefan Lepionka
Chart of the Day: Charlies Group Ltd
Charlies Group: A Triumph of Style over Substance
Charlies juicing through Shareholder cash

Discuss CHA @ Share Investor Forum
Download CHA Company Reports


Michael Hill International Ltd
[MHI.NZX]

Michael Hill International has had a tough last couple of years but the most recent result has been pleasing to say the least.

It has largely put the cost of its expansion in North America behind it by closing a number of stores and consolidating in Chicago and seeing how things go there before further mainland USA expansion.

It has done reasonably well in its main markets in Australasia but Canada remains weak.

The share price has gained more than 30% since I picked it in the 2010 Share Investor Stock Picks but MHI still remains a good long term investment with good growth potential and business fundamentals.


Disc I own MHI shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Michael Hill International @ Share Investor

October 2010 Top Stock: Michael Hill International Ltd
Michael Hill International: Is Kim Kardashian the right fit?
Michael Hill International: Tall Tales & Rumours
Hill Family makes Claytons Takeover bid for Michael Hill International
Michael Hill International Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Michael Hill International Ltd
Michael Hill International: 2010 half year profit commentary
Michael Hill Makeover kicks off
Michael Hill International: 2009 full year profit commentary
Toughen Up: What I have learned from the hard times
Stock of the Week: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill TV3 60 Minutes Interview
Long VS Short: Michael Hill International
Marketwatch: Michael Hill International
Michael Hill's profit shines
Michael Hill takes on the windy city
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
MHI has defined growth strategy
MHI profit sparkles

Discuss MHI @ Share Investor Forum
Download MHI Company Reports

New Zealand Refining Ltd
[NZR.NZX]

With low refining rates, massive capital expenditure and plant shutdowns largely behind them and a rising global oil prices, 2011 looks to be a resurgent year for New Zealand Refining Ltd.

Those higher oil prices will see this stock rise and it has already and the oil price rise has been a significant one. It has been mainly due to a very cold Northern Winter bumping up all sorts of petrochemical products so it is unclear just how sustainable the oil price rise will be. Having said that the recent rise is bound to gain some traction even when the Northern ice melts away and 2011 rolls along.

Look for an increased dividend in 2011 as profit increases that will underpin a good share price rise from current levels.

NZR @ Share Investor

Stock of the Week - Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd
Chart of the Week: New Zealand Refining Ltd
Stock of the Week: NZ Refining Ltd

Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports


New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[NZO.NZX]

Apart from its 29% holding in the now insolvent Pike River Coal Ltd [PRC.NZX] and the financial fallout from that, NZ Oil & Gas Ltd has had a reasonable year considering the overall lowish global oil prices for 2010.

The Pike River Coal Mine disaster has provided an opportunity for investors to get this stock relatively cheap considering it has a reasonable volume of oil and gas left to pull out of the ground and several drilling prospects on the boil.

The fact that global oil prices per barrel are rising and should pass US$100 will give Oil & Gas the impetus to get more out of the ground and return some higher margins for their products.

The only drawback is a relatively high Kiwi/US dollar cross but the Kiwi seems to have peaked out late 2010 as the dire state of our economy and deficits become clearer.

Watch for a good bounce in profit for 2011 as a result of these favourable key points come together.


NZ Oil & Gas @ Share Investor

NZ Oil & Gas Ltd: Impacted by Pike River Coal
Long Term View: NZ Oil & Gas Ltd

Discuss NZO @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZO Company Reports


Other Notable Quotables

NZX

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX] A retailer currently under pressure. Value below NZ$1.50.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ] New Zealand's leading port company with good upside on increased exports and a good dividend. Best managed port in New Zealand with the best long term prospects.

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] A good monopoly at historically cheap prices, doing marginally better in 2010 and set to pick up profit in 2011.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX] Value in the company as a hedge against investment inflation. Dividends are over 10% net PA at current share prices (low NZ$2.10 - 2.20 range) and stock worth buying at these low levels for the return and a possible recovery in share price due to its participation in the high speed fibre roll-out and subsequent business around that.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX] has an outside chance of coming right in 2011 if the housing market starts to show some growth and its relatively low share price is a good entry point for a company still in transition from a monopoly to a more competitive model of doing business.

ASX

Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX]
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX]
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX]

All Australian casino companies under pressure with sluggish returns and relatively low share prices and ripe for mergers and acquisitions. Possible suitor, Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] that is doing well , has low debt levels and access to over a billion NZ dollars in borrowing facilities and could easily find more if needed.

Nasdaq

A pick from 2010, Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A target of 10% sales growth for 2010-2011 after a 15% plus profit growth in 2010 and more good growth to come from China & India make this company a finger Lickin proposition.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

2011 may well be a year of marking time for global stockmarkets. As uncertainty surrounds the fragile state of many economies. The big gains made on stockmarkets in 2010 could materialize for some as nervousness over the aforementioned leaves them to take cash off the table. I think there is more bad news in relation to the global economy to come, but that is only my opinion.

That aside if you can, some listed companies have done well in 2010 and will continue to do so in 2011 but others will find the going tough as cash flow dries up, debt mounts and interest rates bite.

If there is no upturn in the economy, stockmarket share price weakness will have me poised to buy further shares in some of the companies I own in the Share Investor Portfolio with surplus cash of over $16,000.00 in dividends rather than with borrowed funds. I am looking at buying more Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] shares should the share price fall and The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] is on my radar again after a recent share price correction.

Remember, the stocks I have picked above are based on my investment criteria and may not fit yours and of course you could have a different opinion. I would love to hear your opinion and any picks you may have.

Have a look at what I have to say, take it on board or not and then do your own research to see if you might agree with me.

Lastly, I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2011, we could all use it!


**Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2011. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.


Disc  I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


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