Friday, February 20, 2015

Have Contact, what do I do with it now?

I bought this share in August 2011 thinking that the worst was over and that Contact was about to bring in the divs.

The company had just appointed a stonking CEO called Dennis Barnes and all was right with the world.

Or so we thought.

All the talk from Dennis, yes Dennis, I'll call him that from now since the folks at Contact will be reading this.

Anyway, he has been talking about a return to shareholders since taking over the reigns.

What made him change his mind?

Has Contacts prospects gotten so bad, he simply can't entertain the idea?

No, the company is doing well, and looks good to return $1 billion.

But what is this, oh no Dennis your 53.1 per cent shareholder Origin Energy has made some bad choices over the years as well and now looks to treat Contact as its own personal ATM by using that very same money that is supposed to be mine, ok ours, on buying up overseas energy companies.

Come on Dennis they are big boys.

Let them find their own money!

You have been talking about this for a long time. Expectations are that you would return it, to us.

Do you want to treat shareholders like your previous CEO treated your customers?

We know how that ended.

So I urge you, do the right thing. Treat us like owners as well as Origin Energy and return the money where it belongs, to us.

Don't be a paid lacky, we share in the fortune that you started with in this company.

Lets make it a long, mutually beneficial fortune.

* Contact has had a look ...

CEN @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 8
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 7
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 6
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 5
Contact Energy look set to gain customers
I'm Buying: Contact Energy Ltd
Share Investor Portfolio 2: Value @ 7 July 2011
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy
Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download CEN Company Reports

c Share Investor 2015

Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Headliner: Stop Sending Me Your Paper (Unless it is free!)

The owners of that wonderful financial rag The Headliner are going to have to stop sending me their rag!

So far I have been sent zero,zip,nada, nothing at all.

So Derek Freear from Mercantile Gazette Marketing Ltd listen up-I'm not getting it anymore!

If you wanna send me say 6 months worth ill make it worth your while. Free publicity.

I would love to hear from that mysterious benefactor once again.

Thanks.

Darren Rickard
309a Charles St
Hastings 4120.

Related Links

Headliner.co.nz

c Share Investor 2013, 2015

Monday, February 2, 2015

Kathmandu: How much in a week from now?

$1.47.

No, not the price of the sugar in a cup of Auckland latté but the price of something similar.

Kathmandu stock after a day of trading on news that its shares are down again, that came out today it failed to make the grade over Christmas.

Well below the IPO price of $2.15, the share price is likely to head south tomorrow before it does its typical dead cat bounce sometime in the next few days.

Its not the first or second time in its history, although it has been 3x in as many months lately, that the stock has been punished due to missing sales targets.

It has missed them before in the past - got down these levels vis a vie price - but this time it feels a little diff.

Something tricky going on with the reporting. I mean how can the reporting vary from Dec 22 2014 to Jan 31 2015. You have to question that?

What were the staff doing, giving up?

Thought they had a touch of a pumpkin or worse still a postman?

You just hope that they can get over this rather large hiccup and move on but something just nags at me.

Could this be the beginning of the end?

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings: Profit Upgrade lacks accurate comparison
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd: The First Year
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd: 2010 full year profit analysis
Chart of the Day: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings: Market Update Misleads
Kathmandu's 2011 Results Under Pressure from Jan Cameron
Kathmandu IPO: Prospectus Analysis
Kathmandu IPO: Jan Cameron lands a blow to IPO
Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest HighKathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration at Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus
KMD Investor Presentation to Macquarie

Discuss Kathmandu @ Share Investor Forum

Download KMD Company Reports

c Share Investor 2015

Friday, January 30, 2015

Share Investors Portfolio Picks Updated

Well, its been a busy couple of months.

NZX up around 200 points and the portfolio up in all cases except for 3x.

I'll start with those 3 first.

That's Trademe, The Warehouse and Team Talk.

Trademe down about 25c, the Warehouse around the same and Team Talk down 60 cents due to a downgrade.

Auckland International Airport is up over 50 cents, Air NZ up over 40 cents, Contact Energy up over $1, Fisher & Paykel Health up 90 cents, Hallensteins Glassons up 20 cents, Mainfreight up just over $1, NZ Refining up over 60 cents , Heartland Bank up nearly 30 cents Sky City even and Xero just 20 cents below what it was Nov 20.

They range from Heartland up 30 per cent, to Sky City even stevens and everything else in between.

Easy to pick good ones in a market that is rising but hopefully you can see what I mean about brief profits.

Real money is to be made long term.

An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.

www.shareinvestorforum.com

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

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c Share Investor 2014, 2015

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Danish Cartoon depicts Muslim faith for what it is (NOW with added blasphemy!)

I have published one of the cartoons that the 12 brave men and women who got shot to death today by 3 crazy Muslim bastards have published in the past.

We must not let them silence us.

Keep poking fun at all religions and all things that amuse you.

It is your right to do so.

I have so far resisted publishing these hilarious cartoons but have now entered the fray and expect a bit of a backlash.

These cartoons rightly parody the Muslim religion. They depict the prophet Mohamed and the Muslim religion for what it is: violent, nasty, dictatorial, murderous, cruel and unworkable in the modern world.

The mere fact that the Muslim world raises itself up with death treats and carries out murders and bombings against those who dare to criticise the religion, show the "faith" for what it really is.

"Moderate Muslims", if they truly exist, should counter all these death threats and extreme views against people's democratic right to free speech by publicly defending rights to free speech instead of joining the Muslim bandwagon and proclaiming some new jihad against the Western world.

Image result for mohammed cartoons

These cartoons are moderate in their message compared to the message of Jihad
pushed daily by Muslim leaders.

I wait with baited breath but don't expect condemnation of this extremism by the Muslim world.

Related Political Animal reading

Fully aware of Muslims: Jihad and Understanding
Having a multiple Muslim
Dutch Politicians Movie -Fitna (Full version)
Reaction to Muslim cartoons defended by some

c Political Animal 2008, 2015

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks

Author at beginning of year.

I think I will pick stocks this year and give readers a chance to fill in the blanks yourselves.

Apart from the fact that the NZX 50 is up around 900 points to finish at 5530 today, you would have to say the index shows our market has been way overbought and is due for a correction, how much and when is a little harder to define.

That may also not happen, if America keeps on with its wacky ways.

With this in mind here we go.

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Quite high at the moment but long term readers will know I've picked this every year since I started this.

Give it a miss at these prices if you want to invest - it will get cheaper. But if your one of those short termers its worth grabbing. Will go north of $6.00.

Sky City Entertainment

This is the year I'm picking for this wonderful stock, it has almost paid for itself in 13 short/long years, divs.

I'm picking it to finally deliver in the last part of 2015. Momentum will see this stock in the high 5s.

The Warehouse Group

I'm picking this stock, because I have a hunch its dec statement to us, the public, will be a good one and its sales figures out in Jan will be more of the same. It is likely that a turn around has come.

Cross fingers.

Mainfreight Ltd

I picked this stock because of its ability to stick to its knitting, get the job done, and bring in the results.

Time after time.

2015 will be an outstanding year for the company.

Contact Energy

2015 will be a good year for Contact.

Although 2015 - 17 will be restrained in terms of demand, their supply will rewarded with historical lows in terms of cost of production.

Management have signalled either buy back, special div or higher divs for now and into the future.

Ryman Healthcare Ltd

This stock amazes me.

While it was languishing in the high 20s that's $1.20 during the financial crises of 2008 - 2011 it hardly rated a mention, I was buying it then (first disclosure).

It was making record profits then.

Now it and its sisters are making headlines once a week, how hot is the property market right now.

This will take off once the most recent profit result is known - this Friday 21 Nov.

Get it while you can.

Auckland Airport

This company is well on the road to earning the big bucks.

It wasn't long ago, 4 years ago, that it was making 100m, now it will do close to twice that.

Ain't going to have any competition, not while I'm or my daughters alive.

I see nothing but growth for this one, get on and fly.

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings

A brief one which I've traded 4x before that goes in cycles the way that it always has.

Management are aware things change - they have been in the clothing biz for over 100 years and know where it at, that is why I don't mind holding. They are a good company.

They are near the bottom once again and by most they appear to be making there way to the top again.

Heartland New Zealand

This one I picked last year @ 80 something cents.

I pick It again next year as it looks set to expand and grow revenue and profit.

Something tells me that this is a dark horse.

A Xero, in the making if you like, except this company makes a profit and has got a clear purpose.

Get it now for big future gains.

NZ Refining

NZ Refining is a cyclical stock and at present its in the low part of the cycle.

1.97 per share is cheap when one considers your buying 2.05 of NTA.

Get in while you can on good long term - 2 plus years - gain.

Trademe Group

If you can get this around $4.00 you could earn almost a buck a share next year.

It looks set to consolidate next reporting season, perhaps a we bit up and grow slightly during 2015.

Not a share I would own for a long time, has no future, but good to get in and out of on its way down to zero.

Team Talk

This one has been on my watchlist for years.

Its on the small-cap index.

Principally because of its dividend, which has been 2x 10c for long as I can remember but has recently come down to 7.5c x 2. The company say it will stay that way all of next year.

The share price has come down by more than the cost of the div making this a good long term bet to take off once it sees an improvement in bus.

Any improvement in the biz would see the div raised.

Air NZ

Just one last one to tempt the weak and perhaps make the very same strong if they hold onto this one to long.

If you can get this at 2.15 per share you should be good for the rest of 2015.

The running costs are going down and patronage is up.

Beautiful!

It will not last forever.

Warning

What not to buy!

At the time of writing this addition 19.12.14 11.30am the stock that I've got to mention is XRO. It is at $15.70 at time of writing and is set to make further slippages in 2015. It reached a high of over $45 and some and is many years away from making a profit - if at all. It has been 6.5 years on the NZX.

Stay away.

Conclusion

As I said in the brief intro I think the index looks a little shaky.

I see a brief upswing in the new year then a tapering off throughout the year.

But we are talking a new reality, markets aren't going down like they should do.

America is doing things with its dollar that we haven't seen before and suffering the consequences - the market is going up not down.

The economy is lulling itself into a false sense of security, its not letting out the bung, it just continues to stuff it with continued monetary expansion.

O.k, I'll leave it there.

Except to say, they - America - cannot let the bung out, to do so would jeopardize world markets.

* As an addendum, the stocks from Fisher and Paykel to Hallensteins are stocks in the share investors portfolio and are included because they are the bomb.

The rest are very worthy additions.

An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.

www.shareinvestorforum.com

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
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c Share Investor 2014, 2015

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Ex All Black, with Name Suppression, Gets Named

The man who was discharged and never allowed to be known is former Allblack Grahame Thorne.

His discharge was at the middle of this year.

The guy responsible for naming him is Tau Henare

Detail of his offending can be found here.

www.humanheadline.com.au/hinch-says/justice-denied---again

c darrenrickard 2014

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Hubbard to blame for collapse of South Canterbury Finance.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Thoughts before 20th September 2014

I just wanted to add a little piece of work before the election , just to get my head on straight.

This will be my first political piece before the election post my February 6 2012 incident, so bare with me.

I have already voted, 2 ticks blue as I have done for the last 5 elections.

I come from a Labour household, where they supposedly, looked after the working man.

My first 2 votes were for labour. I have grown up since then.

I could never vote for Labour again, unless they changed their high tax, high spending ways.

National are not my perfect idea for a political party, but they are the closest.

All the other parties, except ACT want an intrusion into your and your loved ones lives. I don't want to vote for ACT because, we'll I can't, they don't have a representative in the Hawkesbay.

The perfect party would want a much smaller role in the daily lives of everyone. Through business, social, and all aspects of life.

The main reason I'm voting National are their tax policies.

Labour want to introduce 5 new taxes and for that they are to be lambasted.

One I want to briefly talk about is their CGT.

They say they want to bring it in because it's fair, because it's in every OCED bar two, because it will put a stranglehold on property prices.?

What?

Apart from the fact that their Spokeperson for finance can't explain it properly - really it would be hard for the most intelligent person explain it and he is no slouch in the brain department.

The fact is it is complicated.

In Australia, we're it was introduced in the mid 80s it was responsible for making the IRD increase in size BY a THIRD.

It's didn't do anything to house prices.

If you want to make our government even larger, complicate the tax system and put a drag on the economy. All taxes are a drag, no taxes are good, or fair or stimulate growth.

They have the opposite effect.

c darrenrickard 2014

Monday, August 18, 2014

Labour Plan: Change Everything

Hi again 2 posts in 2 days, wow.

Anyway it has just occurred to me that labour have a plan. They plan to change EVERYTHING that national have done over the last 5 or 6 years.

I've heard them announce policies over the last few days and it occurred to me that every part of a particular policy WILL be changed, save a couple of good details. They are talking about education, benefit rates, employment law etc...everything put in place by key that has done us very we'll over the GFC.

Are you really that finicky that you would change because of a few emails and the appearance of 2 fat men on the political horizon...2 vicious men who don't give a fuck about you or me, they just care about themselves.

Think about it before you vote, I'm voting 2 ticks blue this sept 20. There is nobody else, I'd vote for labour if they had decent people who were normal and had good sound policies but they don't.

Sept 20 do the right thing.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Anna Lorke: Pushy Person

Just a brief note on one pushy person, Anna Lorke, labour candidate for the tukituki seat, hawkesbay, for the sept 20 election.

She just happened to knock on my door to answer questions. Well, what I thought was answer questions, she did and I told her my first vote was for labour all those years ago and that all she needed to do to make me vote labour again was go back to what David Lange did in the 1980s and she'd get my vote again.

No she said she was far more progressive than that.

She told me she voted national and came on over to labour on their education vote.

She finally told me what she was really there for, to put a hoarding up on my property, a cool corner one where it's close to the street.

I said no the owner wasn't up that.

Neither was the occupant.

Sunday, July 6, 2014

The Share Investor Portfolio: Where it is today

Time to check in and see if I have refashioned, refocused, retooled or just left things the way they are with the Share Investor Portfolio.

Well, I have just revised the portfolio by adding one thing, and that is MOA.NZ. With that I have bought just 1000 at 55c. Of course they are now down to 41c, any minute now they are going to do a Lazarus like recovery and head on way past $1. That is the theory, we will soon see the practice.

I have noticed that MFT.NZ has really packed on the pounds recently putting on 45c to finish closing at $14.85. A real little rocker that finished on a high on Friday and looks set to continue. I wouldn't sell it at any price, look to see this share setting new records over the years. Management don't set well with dividing up share prices for the hell of it so looks like its headed up to Xero territory, and to stay there.

Another share doing well has been FPH.NZ , at around $4.68 it looks like it will double in value over the coming 5 years as its revenue tops 1 Billion - could be a race between Fishers and Mainfreight to see who reaches silly heights, love the market.

SKC.NZ isn't doing well at the moment, I thinks its started this year about where it is now - but be warned when news comes out about the new gaming features the company is going to bring to the market and how well they do - the share is going to take off. It owes me very little.

RYM.NZ is another great , fantastic, splendid share. Cant really say much more about this, growing BIG.

AIA.NZ has taken a wee turn for the worse but owes me very little, while CEN.NZ has returned about 30% but has yet to take off - National winning the election will take care of that.

And the WHS.NZ is doing what it always does, lurching along from one profit warning to another.

One truly good company, HLG.NZ is down about 25% bought 10000 last year for $4.42 is struggling and even though it has recently came out with all looks well, seems to be marking time to the actual profit announcement in September.

Well, thats it really, remember, think and do your OWN research before plucking down the dollars. It is only money but its your money!

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks

	Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill
	Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2014

Friday, January 3, 2014

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks

Superstar Xero a surprising omission from list for investors to add to their portfolios

Mainfreight is a popular pick for a strong performance in 2014 due to its increasing international exposure. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Air New Zealand is the most popular pick by brokers for 2014 riding on the back of strong expectations for profit growth at the national carrier.

Three out of seven brokers chose the airline, whose shares have already risen more than 25 per cent this year.

Rob Mercer, an analyst at Forsyth Barr, said Air New Zealand was heading into 2014 in great shape with earnings expected to increase from those already seen in 2013.

"Air New Zealand (is) poised to deliver several years of strong profit performance."

Mercer said the drivers behind that were improved demand, cost cutting, changes to loss-making long-haul routes and stable fuel prices.

Macquarie analyst Brad Gordon said Air New Zealand had outperformed its airline peers yet it was trading at a cheaper price.

"Air New Zealand's return on equity is around 11 per cent, Qantas is basically zero."

Gordon said that in the past Air New Zealand's value had traded at a discount because of the Government's high level of ownership.

The 20 per cent sold down by the Government in 2013 reduced the overhang issue and increased liquidity in the stock. Trade volumes had been boosted from around half a million dollars a day to around $1.5 million to $2 million.

Gordon said the nature of the New Zealand market meant Air New Zealand stood to benefit from the country's strong economic growth and flow-on effects from the Christchurch rebuild with more people travelling up and down the country.

Outside of Air New Zealand, Diligent, Chorus, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Contact Energy, Infratil and Mainfreight received two picks each.

Diligent, a software providers of corporate board documents, was a top performer in 2012 but this year it has struggled with governance issues and delays in restating its accounts. Its shares have fallen more than 25 per cent.

Gordon was not worried about Diligent having to restate its accounts.

"It's not entirely unusual for new software companies to go through restatements globally."

The big question mark was whether the issue had distracted management and impacted sales for the company. He would be looking closely at quarterly sales figures due out early next year.

Diligent was a top pick for brokers in 2013 but remarkably none of the brokers have picked Xero either this year or for 2014, despite its stellar performance.

Gordon believed that was down to a lack of understanding over Xero's valuation. "The last $15 the company put on really there has been no news. On the face of it it's the most expensive SAAS (software as a service) company on valuation."

Others have zeroed in on companies with strong global growth prospects.

Mark Lister, head of research at Craigs Investment Partners, said he picked Fisher & Paykel Healthcare because the business is growing strongly offshore and was well positioned to continue to deliver over the medium term. "If we see any currency weakness emerge, this would serve to enhance the investment proposition even more," he said.

Lister also picked Mainfreight for its increasing international exposure.

"Mainfreight has a strong brand and market position in Australasia but over recent years, an increasing portion of revenues and earnings have come from international operations including those in Europe and the US.

"A recovery in some of these regions, as well as any strength in the currency, would benefit Mainfreight."

Forsyth Barr's Mercer said he backed Mainfreight because it had a high marginal return on equity, it was beating peers on earnings growth and had a proactive executive team.

"Mainfreight has substantial global growth prospects."

Brokers top picks:

Macquarie Securities
Summerset Group
Diligent
Pumpkin Patch
Air New Zealand
Chorus

First NZ Capital
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Hellaby Holdings
Airwork Holdings
Z Energy
Contact Energy

Goldman Sachs
Trade Me
Tower
Air New Zealand
Infratil
Nuplex

Craigs Investment Partners
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fletcher Building
Meridian Energy
Mainfreight
Australian Foundation Investment Company

Forsyth Barr
Air New Zealand
Contact Energy
Sky Television.
Mainfreight
Opus International Consultants

Hamilton Hindin Greene
Metlifecare
Chorus
Steel & Tube
A2 Corp
NZX

McDouall Stuart
Telecom
Diligent
Infratil
Heartland Bank
VMob

*Disclaimer - Before using the Business Herald survey to choose a broker or stocks, readers should recognise that the results are skewed by some features. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five year term, the results might be different. The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances. The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
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Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
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	Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill
	Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2012, 2013, 2014

Share Investor