Thursday, November 20, 2014

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks

Author at beginning of year.

I think I will pick stocks this year and give readers a chance to fill in the blanks yourselves.

Apart from the fact that the NZX 50 is up around 900 points to finish at 5530 today, you would have to say the index shows our market has been way overbought and is due for a correction, how much and when is a little harder to define.

That may also not happen, if America keeps on with its wacky ways.

With this in mind here we go.

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Quite high at the moment but long term readers will know I've picked this every year since I started this.

Give it a miss at these prices if you want to invest - it will get cheaper. But if your one of those short termers its worth grabbing. Will go north of $6.00.

Sky City Entertainment

This is the year I'm picking for this wonderful stock, it has almost paid for itself in 13 short/long years, divs.

I'm picking it to finally deliver in the last part of 2015. Momentum will see this stock in the high 5s.

The Warehouse Group

I'm picking this stock, because I have a hunch its dec statement to us, the public, will be a good one and its sales figures out in Jan will be more of the same. It is likely that a turn around has come.

Cross fingers.

Mainfreight Ltd

I picked this stock because of its ability to stick to its knitting, get the job done, and bring in the results.

Time after time.

2015 will be an outstanding year for the company.

Contact Energy

2015 will be a good year for Contact.

Although 2015 - 17 will be restrained in terms of demand, their supply will rewarded with historical lows in terms of cost of production.

Management have signalled either buy back, special div or higher divs for now and into the future.

Ryman Healthcare Ltd

This stock amazes me.

While it was languishing in the high 20s that's $1.20 during the financial crises of 2008 - 2011 it hardly rated a mention, I was buying it then (first disclosure).

It was making record profits then.

Now it and its sisters are making headlines once a week, how hot is the property market right now.

This will take off once the most recent profit result is known - this Friday 21 Nov.

Get it while you can.

Auckland Airport

This company is well on the road to earning the big bucks.

It wasn't long ago, 4 years ago, that it was making 100m, now it will do close to twice that.

Ain't going to have any competition, not while I'm or my daughters alive.

I see nothing but growth for this one, get on and fly.

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings

A brief one which I've traded 4x before that goes in cycles the way that it always has.

Management are aware things change - they have been in the clothing biz for over 100 years and know where it at, that is why I don't mind holding. They are a good company.

They are near the bottom once again and by most they appear to be making there way to the top again.

Heartland New Zealand

This one I picked last year @ 80 something cents.

I pick It again next year as it looks set to expand and grow revenue and profit.
Something tells me that this is a dark horse.

A Xero, in the making if you like, except this company makes a profit and has got a clear purpose.

Get it now for big future gains.

NZ Refining

NZ Refining is a cyclical stock and at present its in the low part of the cycle.

1.97 per share is cheap when one considers your buying 2.05 of NTA.

Get in while you can on good long term - 2 plus years - gain.

Trademe Group

If you can get this around $4.00 you could earn almost a buck a share next year.

It looks set to consolidate next reporting season, perhaps a we bit up and grow slightly during 2015.

Not a share I would own for a long time, has no future, but good to get in and out of on its way down to zero.

Team Talk

This one has been on my watchlist for years.

Its on the small-cap index.

Principally because of its dividend, which has been 2x 10c for long as I can remember but has recently come down to 7.5c x 2. The company say it will stay that way all of next year.

The share price has come down by more than the cost of the div making this a good long term bet to take off once it sees an improvement in bus.

Any improvement in the biz would see the div raised.

Air NZ

Just one last one to tempt the weak and perhaps make the very same strong if they hold onto this one to long.

If you can get this at 2.15 per share you should be good for the rest of 2015.
The running costs are going down and patronage is up.


It will not last forever.


What not to buy!

At the time of writing this addition 19.12.14 11.30am the stock that I've got to mention is XRO. It is at $15.70 at time of writing and is set to make further slippages in 2015. It reached a high of over $45 and some and is many years away from making a profit - if at all. It has been 6.5 years on the NZX.

Stay away.


As I said in the brief intro I think the index looks a little shaky.

I see a brief upswing in the new year then a tapering off throughout the year.

But we are talking a new reality, markets aren't going down like they should do.

America is doing things with its dollar that we haven't seen before and suffering the consequences - the market is going up not down.

The economy is lulling itself into a false sense of security, its not letting out the bung, it just continues to stuff it with continued monetary expansion.

O.k, I'll leave it there.

Except to say, they - America - cannot let the bung out, to do so would jeopardize world markets.

* As an addendum, the stocks from  Fisher and Paykel to Hallensteins are stocks in the share investors portfolio and are included because they are the bomb.

The rest are very worthy additions.

An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks
Brokers 2013 Stock Picks
Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

c Share Investor 2014, 2015


  1. I would agree with most of these calls. I think FPH is doing incredibly well, but is priced like it is bullet proof. Maybe it is, but it is also at historically high p/e ratio and has little margin for error.

    Dividend yields are pretty weak at the moment in general without taking a lot of risk. I don't think National will bother propping up Tiwai Point again which means big risk for the power companies down the track.

    My one addition for 2015 would be GenTrack (GTK). Ignore the cock-up after listing, the company provides stable, growing, long-term reoccurring revenues and will be a star dividend payer in the coming years if the prospectus is to believed. It is a solid defensive play and will weather any market wobbles in 2015 by actually making money unlike some other tech companies.


  2. O.k. yeah, I think most of what you see here is "overbought". That is with the exception, of nz refining and perhaps, teamtalk. The rest ARE overbought. This is in a market that operates correctly. But we don't operate that way anymore post gfc. I'll do well whether the markets go up or down. I'm hoping for a down so I can do some more buying. Plus I don't have a job any more.... trading is fun! Anyone got a job - inside, preferably to do with money, Darren 021 505 767 .

  3. Thanks for posting.

    At current prices, FBU is worth a look as well (IMHO).

  4. Yeah, I don't know, I used to hold 1000 and got rid of them about a year ago. While there are worse companies out there I just don't this one is run at all well. Look at the companies its has bought... they just buy them at the wrong time.... every one of them AND usually have to write them off. Just not for me. Could be run alot better.

  5. Hi Darren, what do you think of a2milk? Droped more than 10% in two days. No bad news, is the big boys shorting it? Cheers.

  6. A2, I don't know. Don't follow it, may I suggest that you buy more? If it meets your buy signals.

  7. Took your advice got some CEN and got rid of XRO. Contact is great.

  8. Good lord, don't take my advice!! Ok if you happen to please do your own research, then buy some. I got Mine in 2011 for $5.34 and sold half of them last year, cause my wife wanted some in the divorce - she didn't get any. They are up by just over 70 per cent. I plan on getting rid of my 5000 at around 8.50 - 9.

    1. I got mine not long ago at 6.55, highest at the time, but it still did very good.

  9. XRO Id agree with you though, unless you know what your doing. I hope you made some money. Ultimately I don't see it ever making money.

    1. No, I lost 15% of my investment on it. Never mind when it drop below 10, I will get some.

  10. Look toward next reporting period. The forward projections look good...

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