Thursday, November 20, 2014

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks (UPDATED)

Author at beginning of year.
 
I think I will pick stocks this year and give readers a chance to fill in the blanks yourselves.

Apart from the fact that the NZX 50 is up around 900 points to finish at 5530 today, you would have to say the index shows our market has been way overbought and is due for a correction, how much and when is a little harder to define.

That may also not happen, if America keeps on with its wacky ways.

With this in mind here we go.


Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Quite high at the moment but long term readers will know I've picked this every year since I started this.

Give it a miss at these prices if you want to invest - it will get cheaper. But if your one of those short termers its worth grabbing. Will go north of $6.00.


Sky City Entertainment

This is the year I'm picking for this wonderful stock, it has almost paid for itself in 13 short/long years, divs.

I'm picking it to finally deliver in the last part of 2015. Momentum will see this stock in the high 5s.


The Warehouse Group

I'm picking this stock, because I have a hunch its dec statement to us, the public, will be a good one and its sales figures out in Jan will be more of the same. It is likely that a turn around has come.

Cross fingers.


Mainfreight Ltd

I picked this stock because of its ability to stick to its knitting, get the job done, and bring in the results.

Time after time.

2015 will be an outstanding year for the company.
 

Contact Energy

2015 will be a good year for Contact.

Although 2015 - 17 will be restrained in terms of demand, their supply will rewarded with historical lows in terms of cost of production.

Management have signalled either buy back, special div or higher divs for now and into the future.


Ryman Healthcare Ltd

This stock amazes me.

While it was languishing in the high 20s that's $1.20 during the financial crises of 2008 - 2011 it hardly rated a mention, I was buying it then (first disclosure).

It was making record profits then.

Now it and its sisters are making headlines once a week, how hot is the property market right now.

This will take off once the most recent profit result is known - this Friday 21 Nov.

Get it while you can.


Auckland Airport

This company is well on the road to earning the big bucks.

It wasn't long ago, 4 years ago, that it was making 100m, now it will do close to twice that.

Ain't going to have any competition, not while I'm or my daughters alive.

I see nothing but growth for this one, get on and fly.



Hallenstein Glasson Holdings

A brief one which I've traded 4x before that goes in cycles the way that it always has.

Management are aware things change - they have been in the clothing biz for over 100 years and know where it at, that is why I don't mind holding. They are a good company.

They are near the bottom once again and by most they appear to be making there way to the top again.
 

Heartland New Zealand
 
This one I picked last year @ 80 something cents.
 
I pick It again next year as it looks set to expand and grow revenue and profit.
 
Something tells me that this is a dark horse.
 
A Xero, in the making if you like, except this company makes a profit and has got a clear purpose.
 
Get it now for big future gains.
 
 
NZ Refining
 
NZ Refining is a cyclical stock and at present its in the low part of the cycle.
 
1.97 per share is cheap when one considers your buying 2.05 of NTA.
 
Get in while you can on good long term - 2 plus years - gain.
 
 
Trademe Group
 
If you can get this around $4.00 you could earn almost a buck a share next year.
 
It looks set to consolidate next reporting season, perhaps a we bit up and grow slightly during 2015.
 
Not a share I would own for a long time, has no future, but good to get in and out of on its way down to zero.
 
 
Team Talk
 
This one has been on my watchlist for years.
 
Its on the small-cap index.
 
Principally because of its dividend, which has been 2x 10c for long as I can remember but has recently come down to 7.5c x 2. The company say it will stay that way all of next year.
 
The share price has come down by more than the cost of the div making this a good long term bet to take off once it sees an improvement in bus.
 
Any improvement in the biz would see the div raised.
 
 
Air NZ
 
Just one last one to tempt the weak and perhaps make the very same strong if they hold onto this one to long.
 
If you can get this at 2.15 per share you should be good for the rest of 2015.
 
The running costs are going down and patronage is up.
 
Beautiful!
 
It will not last forever.


Warning

What not to buy!

At the time of writing this addition 19.12.14 11.30am the stock that I've got to mention is XRO. It is at $15.70 at time of writing and is set to make further slippages in 2015. It reached a high of over $45 and some and is many years away from making a profit - if at all. It has been 6.5 years on the NZX.

Stay away.

Conclusion 
 
As I said in the brief intro I think the index looks a little shaky.
 
I see a brief upswing in the new year then a tapering off throughout the year.
 
But we are talking a new reality, markets aren't going down like they should do.
 
America is doing things with its dollar that we haven't seen before and suffering the consequences - the market is going up not down.
 
The economy is lulling itself into a false sense of security, its not letting out the bung, it just continues to stuff it with continued monetary expansion.
 
O.k, I'll leave it there.
 
Except to say, they - America - cannot let the bung out, to do so would jeopardize world markets.



* As an addendum, the stocks from  Fisher and Paykel to Hallensteins are stocks in the share investors portfolio and are included because they are the bomb.

The rest are very worthy additions.


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