Share Price Alert: Ryman Healthcare Ltd

Ryman Healthcare ltd [RYM.NZX] has had a good year results wise, with a 2010 half year profit up 25% on the comparable 2009 period. It has a long history of uninterrupted increasing profits and dividends.

While this success was reflected in the RYM stock price pre the 2008 stockmarket crash, post crash the stock reached as low as $1.12 at the beginning of 2009 on fears the property sector which had also crashed was going to impact on RYM - that was not to be. Since then the stock has pretty much risen unabated on a series of good profit results.

Yesterday the RYM stock price hit a 4 year intraday high of $2.57 and finished trading at $2.51 and is around 20c off its all time highs. The stock has put on nearly 10% in value since the end of March/ beginning of April and nearly 5% in just the last week.

Just to warn punters that the share price is at near high historical levels and while a positive 2011 Full Year profit out in May is probably the impetus for the rise, investors should be cautious at this fully priced company. While the historical growth levels may continue in the future, as they have for a decade or more and the share price may take a ride with it, it is worth backing off a bit if you already have your eyes on buying this company for the long term and buying on any weakness the share price may have.

Having said that results usually do the talking to the market and this could be the middle of a rise in share price that reflects the long term potential of this star NZX company.

Buy on weakness for excellent long-term gains.


Share Price Alert

Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd



Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Ryman Healthcare Ltd: 2011 Half Year Profit Review
Gordon Macleod on Ryman Healthcare's Australian Expansion
Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?

Discuss RYM @ Share Investor Forum
Download RYM Company Reports


From Fishpond.co.nz

Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time - By Virginia Green







c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back

It has been nearly 4 months since the Share Investor 2011 Stock Picks and I thought it might be appropriate now to look back at how those picks have done. Please keep in mind that my criteria for picking stocks is long term gains and also that the stockmarket as a whole has risen in the 4 months (see 6 month chart below) that has passed so any gains must factor in these two key points.

I am discovering any gains and losses from my picks as I write this post rather than looking at them first and then making a decision to publish, so you, dear readers, will discover how well or badly I did as I did.



I will outline below what price the stock was picked at and how much it has gained or lost since the stock picks came out on December 17 2010.

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking back


Picks from the NZX

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH.NZX]



Picked at $3.06c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.23, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.06c.

0% gain.

Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]


Picked at $2.38c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.16, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $2.50c.

A 5% gain.


Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[SKC.NZX]



Picked at $3.23c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 8c net dividend, and reaching a post pick high of $3.50, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.41c.

A 8% gain.


Charlies Group Ltd
[CHA.NZX]

Picked at 17.5c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of 28c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 27c.

A 54% gain.


Michael Hill International Ltd
[MHI.NZX]

Picked at 85c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 1.5c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of 92c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 88c.

A 5% gain.


New Zealand Refining Ltd
[NZR.NZX]

Picked at $4.20c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 10c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of $5.20c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $4.75c.

A 20% gain.


New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[NZO.NZX]

Picked at 86c on December 17 2011, reaching a post pick high of 94c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 94c.

A 10% gain.

Minor NZX Picks

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX]

A 42% gain.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ]

A 14% gain

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX]

A 6% gain.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX]

A 6% loss.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX]

A 15% gain.



ASX Picks

Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] A 10% loss.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX] A 3% gain.
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX] A 5% loss.


Nasdaq

Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A 0% gain.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

Returns ranged from a 10% loss for Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] up to a 54% gain for Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. Averaged out my 2011 share picks have returned an average net return of 10.33% over slightly less than 4 months if I included them in equal portions in a portfolio. This compares to a return of 4% for the NZX50 as a whole. (see NZX50 chart at top of post)

The market overall appears to be overvalued to me - with the exception of one or two stocks that have lost some value - and I have not bought any shares for well over a year now. My own portfolio has gained 13% since I began re-tracking it for this blog back in October 2010 and I cant see the market gaining much more for 2011 due to very poor global economic conditions and uncertainty as to where the globe is heading in the short to medium term.

Disclosure : I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


Related Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition by GRAHAM
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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 April 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio was up marginally in the first full week of April. The portfolio was up by 0.23% or $648.36 on the April 1 update . For the first 14 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 8.21% or $21048.99 . This weeks rise was due, primarily, to a 38c rise in MFT, and smaller rises in RYM and FRE . Most of the remaining stocks were down marginally.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $23479.21 at close of reporting season for 2010 and partway through the 2011 year. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 08 April, 2011 (NZT)

Stock	Quantity	Cost price	Total cost	Market price	Market value	Change	%
AIA	2,000	$1.700	$3,400.00	$2.185	$4,370.00	$970.00	28.53%
AIA	2,000	$1.510	$3,020.00	$2.185	$4,370.00	$1,350.00	44.70%
AIA	558	$0.000	$0.00	$2.185	$1,219.23	$1,219.23
AIA	754	$2.150	$1,621.10	$2.185	$1,647.49	$26.39	1.63%
ASBPB	3,027	$0.000	$0.00	$0.675	$2,043.23	$2,043.23
ASBPB	6,973	$1.000	$6,973.00	$0.675	$4,706.78	$2,266.23	32.50%
BGR	619	$0.000	$0.00	$1.400	$866.60	$866.60
BGR	2,381	$0.990	$2,357.19	$1.400	$3,333.40	$976.21	41.41%
FBU	284	$0.000	$0.00	$9.370	$2,661.08	$2,661.08
FBU	830	$9.750	$8,092.50	$9.370	$7,777.10	$315.40	3.90%
FPH	3,000	$2.350	$7,050.00	$3.060	$9,180.00	$2,130.00	30.21%
FPH	541	$0.000	$0.00	$3.060	$1,655.46	$1,655.46
FPH	1,459	$3.720	$5,427.48	$3.060	$4,464.54	$962.94	17.74%
FRE	2,054	$0.000	$0.00	$3.270	$6,716.58	$6,716.58
FRE	6,577	$3.630	$23,874.51	$3.270	$21,506.79	$2,367.72	9.92%
GFF	586	$0.000	$0.00	$1.650	$966.90	$966.90
GFF	1,414	$2.330	$3,294.62	$1.650	$2,333.10	$961.52	29.18%
HLG	299	$0.000	$0.00	$3.700	$1,106.30	$1,106.30
HLG	701	$2.530	$1,773.53	$3.700	$2,593.70	$820.17	46.25%
KIP	190	$0.000	$0.00	$1.000	$190.00	$190.00
KIP	810	$1.480	$1,198.80	$1.000	$810.00	$388.80	32.43%
MFT	1,000	$7.960	$7,960.00	$9.330	$9,330.00	$1,370.00	17.21%
MFT	1,838	$8.000	$14,704.00	$9.330	$17,148.54	$2,444.54	16.63%
MFT	657	$0.000	$0.00	$9.330	$6,129.81	$6,129.81
MFT	1,505	$4.200	$6,321.00	$9.330	$14,041.65	$7,720.65	122.14%
MHI	1,646	$0.860	$1,415.56	$0.880	$1,448.48	$32.92	2.33%
MHI	7,000	$0.630	$4,410.00	$0.880	$6,160.00	$1,750.00	39.68%
MHI	494	$1.050	$518.70	$0.880	$434.72	$83.98	16.19%
MHI	860	$0.000	$0.00	$0.880	$756.80	$756.80
PPG	31	$0.000	$0.00	$0.240	$7.44	$7.44
PPG	1,500	$0.440	$660.00	$0.240	$360.00	$300.00	45.45%
PPG	1,004	$0.800	$803.20	$0.240	$240.96	$562.24	70.00%
PPL	1,000	$3.090	$3,090.00	$1.290	$1,290.00	$1,800.00	58.25%
PPL	1,000	$2.870	$2,870.00	$1.290	$1,290.00	$1,580.00	55.05%
PPL	939	$4.200	$3,943.80	$1.290	$1,211.31	$2,732.49	69.29%
PPL	975	$0.000	$0.00	$1.290	$1,257.75	$1,257.75
PPL	1,086	$1.530	$1,661.58	$1.290	$1,400.94	$260.64	15.69%
RYM	459	$0.000	$0.00	$2.480	$1,138.32	$1,138.32
RYM	4,586	$1.970	$9,034.42	$2.480	$11,373.28	$2,338.86	25.89%
SKC	5,750	$7.430	$42,722.50	$3.410	$19,607.50	$23,115.00	54.10%
SKC	1,000	$7.600	$7,600.00	$3.410	$3,410.00	$4,190.00	55.13%
SKC	2,750	$7.700	$21,175.00	$3.410	$9,377.50	$11,797.50	55.71%
SKC	1,431	$8.750	$12,521.25	$3.410	$4,879.71	$7,641.54	61.03%
SKC	272	$4.720	$1,283.84	$3.410	$927.52	$356.32	27.75%
SKC	25,712	$0.000	$0.00	$3.410	$87,677.92	$87,677.92
STU	78	$0.000	$0.00	$2.740	$213.72	$213.72
STU	303	$4.740	$1,436.22	$2.740	$830.22	$606.00	42.19%
WHS	4,500	$3.730	$16,785.00	$3.450	$15,525.00	$1,260.00	7.51%
WHS	6,979	$6.000	$41,874.00	$3.450	$24,077.55	$17,796.45	42.50%
WHS	15	$3.710	$55.65	$3.450	$51.75	$3.90	7.01%
WHS	3,506	$0.000	$0.00	$3.450	$12,095.70	$12,095.70

24.83%

	Total cost	Market value	Change
	$270,928.45	$338,212.36	$67,283.91

Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 28 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 21 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 7 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 31 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 24 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
Share Investor Dividends


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


Related Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $9.73
Usually ships in 24 hours


Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition by GRAHAM
Buy new: $37.80 / Used from: $29.48
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy these two Books @ Fishpond.co.nz






c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: Charlies Group Ltd

Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]hasn't been a favourite of mine since listing around 6 years ago. I have been critical of its money losing history.

They have thus far churned through millions of dollars of shareholder cash growing the business but have achieved a major turnaround into profit over the last year or so with their latest profit result showing good revenue growth on last year and a better profit result to boot.

They have scored some big contracts over the last 6 months with their product going into 750 Coles stores late last year and today announcing some of their range will be sitting in Woolworths supermarket shelves in Australia.

What can I say. I am impressed by the turnaround and I was wrong. It pains me to say that.

The news in October 2010 sent the stock up over 40% in a few days, (see 1 year chart above) from 11c to 16c and rose to around 22c in February where it has been trading between 20-22c since then. This rise in share price has been characterized by low trading volumes, with the notable exception of a big trading spike in late November, early December 2010 when CHA shares moved from 14c to 19c.

Today's news has sent shares up 4c or over 18% to close at 26c today. This beats a previous all-time high of 25c reached in early 2007. (see 5 year chart below)



Keep in mind that this stock has risen from 8-9c levels from a year ago, so its rise to 26c at close of business yesterday is a spectacular rise of approx 180% in less than a year.

If the company is able to get the same sort of leverage in sales that they have from their Coles deal, that reflected so well in their latest result, then the Woolies deal will probably see them power ahead in terms of increased revenue and hopefully profit in the subsequent two reporting periods.

If you have been looking to buy you may want to consider getting in before eager investors like me snap up shares or hold back for some bad news or overall market weakness.

It looks like this company might be a good long term investment after all.

About Charlie’s - From Charlies PR

Charlie’s Group Limited is a New Zealand owned company listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange and operating principally in the Australasian market. The company manufactures and markets a range of ‘not from concentrate’ fruit juices as well as smoothies and organic beverages. Principal brands are Charlie’s and Phoenix Organics. The business was established by friends Stefan Lepionka (CEO), Marc Ellis (director) and Simon Neal (distribution manager) in 1999 and floated on the New Zealand Stock Exchange in July 2005. Charlie’s operates in New Zealand and Australia and exports to territories in Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East and the Indian sub-continent.

Share Price Alert

Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


Charlies Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: Charlies Group CEO Stefan Lepionka
Chart of the Day: Charlies Group Ltd
Charlies Group: A Triumph of Style over Substance
Charlies juicing through Shareholder cash

Discuss CHA @ Share Investor Forum
Download CHA Company Reports

From Fishpond.co.nz



Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2011