Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Burger Fuel slims down in value

Image result for burger fuel

A quick note to inform readers of the fortunes of the recently listed Gourmet burger maker, Burger Fuel(BFW)

Listed at NZ$1 a few months back the share price continues to climb, in a southerly direction today, to a new post float low of 60c.

No comment today by management that they will be giving away shares with every fat bastard burger meal but analysts have speculated that owners who bought in the float will be able to buy a fat bastard meal without getting change with their minimum purchase of 1000 shares should they redeem them at a store near them. A twist on Burger Fuel's IPO tag line "do you want shares with that?"

The offer would be tempting considering how delicious a fat bastard is but a share price recovery could be an appetizing reason to hold the bun and fries.

That recovery seems as likely to happen as OJ being indited for armed robbery though.

Sad to see this disaster continue to develop like a train wreck in slow motion but what is happening now is as obvious as Paris Hilton's dearth of intellectual banter.

I will keep you posted when the share price hits my target of sub 20c.




Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor


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Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
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Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts

Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
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Burger Fuel leaves investors hungry

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Burger Fuel slims down in value
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Burger Fuel results and commentary

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Friday, September 28, 2007

Share Investor's Friday Free for all: Edition 5

Spin the Wheel

The start of the week saw a possible buyer named as the purchaser of Sky City Entertainment (SKC) after a “mystery buyer” was announced as a bidder last Friday.

Providence Equity Partners was named but then latter on in the week TPG Newbridge a private equity fund with ownership of multiple casinos around the world and a buyer of the Harrah’s Casino empire was fingered instead.

While TPG looks the most likely bidder, it looks like you could be more accurate if you used one of Sky City’s roulette wheels with just as much accuracy to find a suitor.

The final act this week in the saga came with a release from Sky City today that they were going to allow due diligence from the secret party and also actively seek other bidders. Shares closed up 17c today to NZ$5.22 on big volume of over 15 million shares.

The bonus laugh from last week though comes from brokers selling client’s shares before SKC shot up sharply in price on the Friday the announcement was made. Brokers only read the misleading headline of the announcement in which Sky City management “hid” the possible bid in an otherwise inconsequential company blurb.

Affected brokers and most probably their clients have been fuming all this week.

That will teach you to be lazy next time huh?


Slap on the wrist with a wet five dollar bill

Share brokers ABN AMRO Craigs were this week fined by the NZX for trading in shares in 2006 without gaining authorisation from the firm's compliance manager. In a statement to the NZX exchange, NZX Discipline, which rules on matters of market conduct, described the breach as "a serious matter."

ABN had been warned several times regarding the same breach.

In July the NZX Discipline panel's annual report showed that two broking firms and their advisers paid sums of money to the NZX this year for breaches of stock exchange rules.

The brokers and advisors were not named and were fined to the tune of $161,000 and $80,000.

The largest settlement was for Rakon (RAK) shares bought for advisors rather than allocated clients.

Another case named related to NZ Oil and Gas (NZO) shares that were purchased to “influence closing prices.” And brokers were fined a total of $80,000.

Makes me wonder what one has to do in this town to get an appropriate punishment for breaching “serious matters” when brokers go astray.

The old boys network keeps on keeping on and Mark Weldon and co have to take a harder look at breaches such as this to give the public confidence in a market lacking the bulls.

Perhaps the breaches happened late on Friday after lunchtime drinks. We could understand this couldn’t we?


Telecom Splits

News on Wednesday that Telecom New Zealand(TEL) was given concrete news that the New Zealand Government was going ahead with its original plan to split the company into three separate operational units.

The split will occur in March next year but take at least 4 years to fully realize. Where have we heard that one before, I thought Teresa had gone?

With internet speeds on average about 1GB per sec New Zealand languish near the bottom of developed countries for speed.

Ranked number one for speed consumption this writer speculates.

Countries like North Korea have entry level broadband speed at 24 MB per sec and more advanced nations are well over 100MB per sec.

Approaching Telecom reforms at dial-up speed isn’t going to get real broadband here anytime soon and it is one reason why this writer still uses snail-net.


Oldies not Goodies

ING’s Real Living retirement village float has joined AMP’s Somerset float that was cancelled last month.

Before the market turmoil of the last few months the AMP float looked like a promising investment.

ING had questions to ask about participants organizing the float anyway. Proponents within the deal were involved with dodgy dealings back in the roaring 80s.

A shame the AMP IPO went South, this correspondent was interested in buying a stake but I’m guessing that the other two oldie home retirement companies still listed on the NZX, Metlifecare (MET) and Ryman Healthcare (RYM) are going to do better considering the two oldie IPO’s are now dead.

Hopefully the AMP Somerset will go ahead in the future. Let’s hope for a resurrection.


Auckland Airport VS The Warehouse: Which one will fly?


Having taken a sizable stake in The Warehouse(WHS) last week, New Zealand’s largest listed general merchandise operator and also having a very small piece of Auckland Airport(AIA) I am left wondering when stacked next to each other , which stock is going to do the biz when and if buyers make offers that sellers cant refuse.

Both possible sales are not exactly straight forward ones, with AIA mired with local and central government impediments and the WHS weighed down with regulatory issues.

In October the case to allow Foodstuffs and Woolworths to buy the WHS will be heard by the Commerce Commission but the AIA transaction lacks any certain information with updates to the market few and far between.

In my opinion the Warehouse sale is likely to go ahead with conditions attached.


Buffett dines on Bear?

Finally speculation abounds that Warren Buffett, the world’s wealthiest investor, has been sniffing around Bear Sterns, the Wall Street investment bank.

Speculation of course sent Bear stock up strongly but stock for the company is trading at a considerable discount to its highs for the year.

Buffett of course is the master of the bargain, and companies like BS, who have recently been going through hard times during the market turmoil of failing sub prime loans might be a perfect candidate for some of the big man’s billions.

He has already got big stakes in Bank of America and Dow Jones so Bear Sterns would be a perfect fit in his portfolio.

The scenario described above has been refuted by contacts within Bear Sterns but who are we to believe?


NZX Market Wrap

The benchmark NZSX-50 index fell 6.91 points to 4268.90, on turnover totaling a high turnover of NZ$212.7 million.

Sky City (SKC) shares leaped today after the management announced it had agreed to due diligence by what it called a "credible" party interested in a potential takeover.

The company's shares hit a high of $5.41 before closing up 17c at $5.22, on turnover of 15.3 million shares. Other blue chips were mostly weaker, with Fletcher Building (FBU) down 17c at $12.69, Contact Energy (CEN) off 15c at $9.19, and Auckland Airport (AIA) down 3c at 313 .In the face of a continuing stronger New Zealand dollar, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) fell 4c to $3.30 and F&P Appliances (FPA) lost 1 cent to $3.56, while Sky TV (SKT) fell 14c as it buys it product in $US.

Telecom (TEL) was up 3c at $4.47, as investors mulled over the Government recommitment this week to split the company into three units.

Air New Zealand (AIR) raised 5c to $2.47, following positive operating numbers for last month, and with shareholders approving its fleet purchase. The stock is running away from fair value with investors ignoring the market volatility of the airline industry.

Other stocks on the rise were Tourism Holdings (THL) up 10c to $2.40, PGG Wrightson (PGG) up 3c at 193, Nuplex (NPX) up 8c at $7.34, and Sanford (SAN) 5c higher at $4.35.

On the downside were Infratil(IFT) down 7c at $2.97, Steel & Tube(STU) down 19c at $4.30, Port of Tauranga(POT) down 5c at $6.70, and Mainfreight (MFT) continues its recent slide down 10c at $6.70.

Disclosure: I own SKC, WHS, RYM, AIA shares


C Share Investor 2007

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Reality needs to Bite

In 2002 Air New Zealand Ltd [AIR.NZX] was at one of its lowest points in years, although like most airlines it had lost billions in the past, this time its predicament meant the New Zealand taxpayer bailed it out via the present Labour Government, to the tune of more than $NZ 1 Billion.

The alternative would have been the entire collapse of the airline, New Zealand's national carrier.

Since then it has done comparatively well, posting acceptable profits and attracting large shareholders.

Its profits since 2002 though have barely got close to the cool billion that the taxpayer forked out to rescue it and on opportunity cost alone has lost a minimum of $250 million on top of that.

Shareholders, taxpayers and voluntary ones alike, need to remember that the airline biz is an extremely fickle one. One that is littered with bankruptcy, failure and many broken dreams, especially in New Zealand.

Long-term, Air New Zealand, like every other airline that there ever has been, with a few notable exceptions, has never made any money.

Air New Zealand's advantage has always been its highly profitable domestic airline monopoly that has propped up its less competitive international division.

While in the past this domestic near monopoly and at present duopoly has had a handful of half serious challenges by competitor airlines that have all failed, the latest drive to compete against the large bully incumbent by Virgin Blue looks set to be the most serious challenge to the big Koru yet.

Virgin has large amounts cash to fund their push, larger than any other prospective airline has had in the past. Virgin has challenged the dominant incumbent airline in all the markets that it has entered. They are in New Zealand for the long haul and will make it hard for Air New Zealand in the most profitable part of their business.

Air New Zealand will fight back hard though but will risk a backlash by the Kiwi flying public when they lower their fares to match Virgin's low prices. Realizing that they have been gouged for generations could be a bitter pill for Kiwis to swallow.

Air New Zealand's small International division, while making acceptable profits by airline standards, is still struggling with meager returns on capital and would be losing money if the cash they were using to operate was borrowed(see taxpayer funded bailout)like most other airlines.

The current profit isn't likely to continue for much longer as the pressures of international and domestic competition start to bite. Being such a small airline Air New Zealand is already struggling hard to compete with the lower costs associated with being a larger player or a traditional low cost operator like Virgin or Virgin Blue.

Investors in airlines seem to get wrapped up in the perceived "glamour" of the airline biz while at the same time forgetting that rather than eagles soaring their investment is more likely to be a spruce goose or an albatross.


AIR @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Air New Zealand Ltd
Queenstown Aiport Case: Air New Zealand VS Auckland
Queenstown Airport: Loud Voices & Loyalty
Long Term View: Air New Zealand Ltd
John Palmer Tipples on the Shareholder
Mike Pero and Air New Zealand: Capitalism vs Socialism
Rob Fyfe's "Environmental Extremism"
Reality Needs to Bite
Air New Zealand wants another taxpayer bailout

Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download AIR Company Reports

From Fishpond.co.nz

Every Bastard Says No: The 42 Below Story

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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Premium for Control

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd [SKC.NZX] the New Zealand based casino and cinema operator has been under speculation of a buyout for about a week now.

A name has finally hit the streets, albeit still unconfirmed, TPG Newbridge, one of the world's biggest private equity funds, with links to Sky City's former operator the casino giant Harrahs.

TPG is in the process of tying up a deal to buy the casino group Harrahs and has also been busy buying up casinos around the world.

Owen Blicksilver, a New York- based TPG spokesman, said that the company would not comment on whether it was considering a buyout of Sky City, which he termed "market speculation".

My only consideration, should this speculation have wings, is the price TPG or any other suitor should pay.

Over the 10 years that I have been invested in the New Zealand Stockmarket, many companies have been bought by foreign buyers and usually at a very cheap price in comparison to similar companies and the sectors that they operate in overseas.

Premiums paid for control of good companies haven't been sufficient but hapless management have fallen over to big incentives and short-sighted business plans. Share holders have simply folded their tent for a quick buck and run to the hills to count their beans.

Recently, the bid by MFS living and Leisure, an Australian Tourist operator, failed when it tried to make a cheap play for Tourism Holdings Ltd [THL.NZX] the New Zealand listed camper van and tourism owner.

Recent bids by Dubai Aerospace International and a Canadian pension fund bid for Auckland International Ltd [AIA.NZX] have come at the lower end of valuations for control of a strategic monopoly.

In 2005 Waste Management, a listed New Zealand trash monopoly, in which yours truly had a sizable stake, was flogged off by management after they had been given incentives by the bidder Transpacific Waste, from Australia.

The company went for a song and profits made by the new owner since would be more than reflected in a higher than sale price share price today had Waste Management still been listed.

In Sky City we have a multitude of assets. Auckland, Hamilton, Queenstown, Adelaide, Darwin casinos owned outright. Part interests in Christchurch and Dunedin Casinos and well over 100 cinema screens.

The company's Casinos in New Zealand are a virtual monopoly with no more likely to be built and the Darwin Casino likewise.

It is true enough that the assets are probably not performing as well as they could and the reasons for that are many and varied but they are exceptional assets when they are well managed.

I don't have much faith in the current board being able to efficiently identify company problems and act with speed and diligence to get the firm back on track. Last weeks debacle over the announcement of buyer interest in the group was another decision that was handled badly and reflects upon the board as such.

Monopolies such as Sky City Entertainment deserve a premium when sold and full control attracts a premium as well.

For this reason management must be urged to get a decent price for the company and not fall for the first attractive bidder with long eyelashes.

Simon Botherway from Brook Asset Management has 8 Million shares in SKC and he and his company has been active in holding out for more in buyouts of holdings that he has had in other company's.

Large institutions like his could press for more should there be a concrete offer made.

I'm hoping any low-ball bid by a potential suitor is going to make him and others very angry.

I will be.


Disc: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


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Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
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Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit


Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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