Share Investor

Friday, November 30, 2012

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks

2012 has been a great year for stocks so forget about what might happen and suspend belief for a nanosecond and take a read at what I have for you.

The stock picking monkey has been very busy this year with a few surprises.

This year the monkey had a hard go at it but managed to get through quite a few interesting picks.

This year I have picked stocks based on nothing except value of the stock based on where I think it will go.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are primarily based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest.

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks

Picks from the NZX

Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[SKC.NZX]

Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZX] are showing more of a positive tone as the New Zealand economy limps on but Christchurch City shows signs of rebuilding

While the economy is uncertain the outlook for it is probably a little better than it was 4 years ago yet the share price has been given a beating until recently

I still think the outlook for FBU is good but most of the bad news has already been factored into the share price and further falls would be the market overreacting to this delay.

They also had a good result in to June 30 2012, with a promise of a 20% upgrade.

It is returning a near 9% gross dividend at these price levels and this is clearly an attractive income as well as a good capital gain play as the share price recovers with the first notice of a definite rebuild.

FBU @ Share Investor

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Discuss Fletcher Building @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download FBU Company Reports

The Warehouse Group
[WHS.NZ]

The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] hasn't been featured since 2010 because retail has been tough especially on the WHS. Retail has been tough in New Zealand and globally over the last few years but there are signs that retail in NZ is on the improve.This confidence by management will only be underpinned by tangible results over the all important 2012 Christmas shopping period and any increase on last year will be a sign that improvement could be on the cards for 2013.

This stock is a good long term play and any increase in sales and cashflow will benefit shareholders with increased dividends.

The increase in sales and profit over the quarter have re-rated this stock.

There is the added bonus is that the company is still in play to some extent pending a decision by either Foodstuffs or Woolworths Australia making an official bid for the company.

Accumulate on weakness.

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
[FPH.NZX]

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] had a reversal of sorts this year. From a penny dreadful to above a buck it changed its fortune when it put global dominance behind them and concentrated on this part of the world.

It still is overseas but through different channels such as 3rd parties which the patch gets its fair share of.

They managed a decent profit this half year and all the reorganization has thus far had the required impetus, so much so that there is talk of paying a divided next year.

Look forward to new stores and some exciting new clothes for the coming season.

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Mainfreight Ltd
[MFT.NZ]

Mainfreight is a dominant player in the logistics sector in Australasia and has businesses in North America and Asia. It has designs on becoming a global logistics player and is well on the way to acheiving its own stated aim of 2 billion in revenue. It has a stated aim of doubling in size over the next 3-5 years.

It is one of the best managed companies listed on the NZX.

There has been a few hiccups along the way, Win Bosman on sale to MFT, is a black spot thus far but you cannot undermine MFT management of this situation and some patchy performance in Asia.

There is no doubt that MFT will manage its way out of it, they have managed thus far this year and Im picking they will manage their way out this year.

Buy on weakness.

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

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Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

New Zealand Refining Ltd
[NZR.NZX]

With low refining rates, massive capital expenditure and plant shutdowns largely behind them and a rising global oil prices, 2013 looks to be a resurgent year for New Zealand Refining Ltd.

Those higher oil prices will see this stock rise and it has already and the oil price rise has been a significant one. It has been mainly due to a very cold Northern Winter bumping up all sorts of petrochemical products so it is unclear just how sustainable the oil price rise will be. Having said that the recent rise is bound to gain some traction even when the Northern ice melts away and 2013 rolls along.

Their mid 2012 profit was horrible but that should be the last of that, it can only go down so far.

Look for an increased dividend in 2013 as profit increases that will underpin a good share price rise from current levels.

NZR @ Share Investor

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Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports

Contact Energy Ltd
[CEN.NZX]

Contact Energy has had a relatively good 2012 and slightly more customer numbers but 2013 is shaping up to be a better year for the company.

Drought conditions experienced now and forecast to continue across Summer are going to benefit a generator like Contact considerably and this will go straight to the bottom-line. Customer numbers have stopped falling and have showed some small gains over the months.

The are also persistent rumours that majority owner of the company origin Energy Ltd[ORG.NZX] are still interested in taking full control at some stage.

I bought some at $5.34 in July 2011 and I think investors have bailed too early considering things are finally starting to go their way. Look to buy before Winter 2013 because I am picking a good one for the company because of what I have outlined above.

A good defensive stock in times of economic uncertainty as 2013 will no doubt be.

Contact Energy @ Share Investor

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Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free

Nasdaq

YUM! Brands Inc
[YUM.NASDAQ]

A pick from 2010, 2011 & 2012 Yum ! Brands Inc achieved a billion plus in sales growth for 2012 and with more tasty growth to come in 2013 and beyond from China & India still make this company a Finger Lickin proposition. It will never be cheaper.

ASX

Coca Cola Amatil
[CCL.AX]

Coca Cola Amatil is the dominant player in the carbonated drinks market in Australasia. It sells its iconic Coca Cola brand as well as a large number of other well known brands in New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Fiji and a number of other markets in this part of the world. Their latest 2012 result shows a good profit.

A strong history of profits can be a good sign that there is more to come in the future and the fact that its customers are largely addicted to its products makes this company a great long term bet. I have always liked this company because it keeps managing to grow its business with clever marketing and product placement at sales outlets.

Buy on any weakness for superior long-term returns.

Coca Cola @ Share Investor

Coke is it!

Caltex Australia Ltd
[CTX.AX]

Caltex Australia Ltd is Australia's largest refiner of oil and oil based products and has one of Australia's largest networks of filling stations.

Its share price has done well over 2012 and is likely to do so in 2013 because the company still remains a dominant player in its sector with good long term potential.

The retail sector for petrol in Australia is undergoing consolidation at the moment and Caltex could be set to benefit.

Buy on weakness for good long term gains.

Other notable quotables

NZX

Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] A good monopoly at historically cheap prices.

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZ] A listing that I may have been wrong about, well see. Value below NZ$1.80.

New Zealand Refining [NZR.NZ] The country's only refiner of oil products. The share price should recover on a lower Kiwi dollar and therefore better margins, an increased global demand for oil and refurbished, expanded plant which will be ready soon.

Port of Tauranga [POT.NZ] New Zealand's leading port company with good upside on increased exports.

Michael Hill International [MHI.NZ] A very well managed jewelry chain poised for global expansion just waiting for that all-important US market to come to the party.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2013

2013 may well be a year of some severe downward corrections on global stock markets. As uncertainty surrounds the fragile state of many economies and the precarious state of Europe's debt yoke and more pain and drama to come in the United States as politicians argue over spending cuts to stop the country from defaulting. Gains made on stock markets in 2012 could materialize for some as nervousness over the aforementioned leaves them to take cash off the table. It is clear that there is much more bad news in relation to the global economy to come and the consequences of this bad news one can only guess at but it will not be pretty at all.

That aside if you can, most listed companies have done well in 2012, and will continue to do so in 2013 but others will find the going tough as cash flow dries up, debt mounts and interest rates bite.

I got rid of PPG, GFF and STU this year cause they irritated the hell out of me and they will never go anywhere. Why did I keep them? Well god only knows its been a year of changes.

Remember, the stocks I have picked above are based on my investment criteria and may not fit yours and of course you could have a different opinion. I would love to hear your opinion and any picks you may have.

Have a look at what I have to say, take it on board or not and then do your own research to see if you might agree with me.

Lastly, I wish you all good luck and a prosperous 2013.

*Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2013. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.

Disclosure : I own SKC, FBU, WHS, FPH, MFT, PPL, MHI, AIA, CEN shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock picks

Broker Picks

Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

c Share Investor 2012, 2013

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Do you still Love Xero?

From the moment this company listed in 2007 it promised big things. Xero Ltd [XRO.NZ]has thus far failed to turn a profit. It is growing pretty fast but from a smallish base.

Its recent listing in Australia last week has seen its shares hit the stratosphere. Nearly $6.50!

The shares started the year at $2.25 and since then (see chart above) they have continued to rise like a rocket ship. It seems $10.00 would not be out of question given now that the Aussies are having a go at it.

It is clear that there are two different things at play here.

One the success of the company and its growth - which appears to be growing fast - and the price and fluctuation of shares.

One way or the other you are going to have some burnt fingers, when the truth comes out about how profitable they are going to be.

Watch for the share price take a slow trip the other way when this happens, and believe me it will .

Rods interview with me in 2010 , made it clear where the company was heading and more interesting one with a user gave an interesting take on the Xero phenomenon .

You have been warned.

Xero Ltd @ Share Investor

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	Xero For Dummies (For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance)) by Heather Smith Buy new: $26.68 / Used from: $12.37 Usually ships in 24 hours

Xero For Dummies (For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance)) by Heather Smith
Buy new: $26.68 / Used from: $12.37
Usually ships in 24 hours

c S hare Investor 2012

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Steal & Tube

Click on photo for bigger size. Received this in the post yesterday sold my very small holding in Steel & Tube [STU.NZ] last week. Got about double for it. Stunned that there are so many out there that would sell but there it is, just warning you, beware.

Steel & Tube @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2012

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Sky City Gaming: Morningstars look at Sky City's gaming

Sky City Casino and hotel in Auckland. Photo / Doug Sherring

This was out a few days ago. Looks like the prospects for the main driver of profit are limited but Sky Cities Australian casinos look to become the main earners. Look for Darwin's earnings getting more significant as the years pass.

Valuation: $4.00

Last updated:

21/10/12

Revenues hold up despite Rugby World cup boost, Darwin shines.

SKC offers gaming services at its casinos in NZ and Australia. The entertainment complex in Auckland is the major driver of earnings accounting for 60% of its operating profit. SKC faces little competition due to NZ government's blanket ban on new casino licenses. This has allowed the company to operate at very healthy profit margins and generate abundant cash flows. Earnings will pick up next year following the Rugby World Cup in 2011.

Judicious investments are being considered to lift growth in the longer term.

Event

At its AGM Sky City (SKC) provided a trading update and profit guidance for fiscal 2013. Not surprisingly, the Auckland casino (accounting for 70% of group EBITDA) posted lower revenues for the period to 17 October the prior year boosted by the Rugby World Cup.

Darwin, international VIP and Hamilton were the real standouts delivering double digit revenue growth
Based on the performance so far and current market conditions, management expects normalized NPAT for fiscal 2013 to be in the “NZD 140 millions”.

Impact

We are sticking with our NPAT forecast of NZD 147 million as we expect profit growth in the second-half to more than offset lower earnings in the first-half.

We expect Auckland’s earnings to remain flat with a lower first-half offset by a stronger second half. Darwin is likely to achieve 8% growth spurred on by the recently opened resort facility (established in July 2012) and the creation of new gaming facilities in FY12.

In the longer term we see good prospects for Darwin stemming from growth in international VIP players due to the casinos proximity to South East Asian countries. Potentially the international VIP business, which is practically non existent right now, could have a turnover of AUD 2 billion in the next two years. That would translate into AUD 6.5 million in incremental EBITDA or an increase of 30% from currently levels.

At its AGM Sky City (SKC) provided a trading update and profit guidance for fiscal 2013. Not surprisingly, the Auckland casino (accounting for 70% of group EBITDA) posted lower revenues for the period to 17 October the prior year boosted by the Rugby World Cup. However, Darwin, international VIP and Hamilton were the real standouts delivering double digit revenue growth. Based on the performance so far and current market conditions, management expects normalized NPAT for fiscal 2013 to be in the “NZD 140 millions”. We are sticking with our NPAT forecast of NZD 147 million as we expect profit growth in the second-half to more than offset lower earnings in the first-half. Our fair value of NZD 4.00 per share also remains intact.

Normalized group revenue was up 1.5% from 1 July to 17 October 2013 driven by Australian casinos, which make up 24% of group EBITDA. As expected the Adelaide business posted flat revenues year-to-date given challenging economic conditions in South Australia. For the full year we expect Adelaide’s EBITDA to be up modestly backed by a better performance from table games.

Darwin’s revenue surged 12.4% underpinned by the recently opened resort facility (established in July 2012) and the creation of new gaming facilities in FY12. The redevelopment of the new VIP Level 2 gaming area, expected to be completed by March 2013, is likely to further enhance the casino’s appeal. We expect Darwin’s EBITDA to increase by 8% this year. In the longer term we see good prospects for Darwin stemming from growth in international VIP players due to the casinos proximity to South East Asian countries. Potentially the international VIP business, which is practically non existent right now, could have a turnover of AUD 2 billion in the next two years. That would translate into AUD 6.5 million in incremental EBITDA or an increase of 30% from currently levels. We also think the AUD 32 billion Inpex LNG project will be very positive for the local economy and might underpin foot traffic to the casino.

Auckland reported a 4.9% decline in top line growth year-to-date. Revenue was impacted by NZD 5 million from the roll out of the new Bally gaming system. However the overall impact on EBITDA was neutral because a similar amount was deducted from expenses. Hence on a normalized basis revenue was 1.7% lower than the prior period. The previous corresponding period however included a one-off benefit of NZD 7 million from the RWC which, if excluded, results in revenue growth of nearly 3%. Considering the prevailing tough economic environment we think Auckland’s performance was creditable. The international VIP business in particular is going from strength to strength and is becoming one of the major growth drivers for the company. Revenue increased 40% year-to-date reflecting the full impact of new facilities created last year. For full year we expect Auckland’s earnings to remain flat with a lower first-half offset by a stronger second half.

Among the smaller casinos Hamilton’s performance was noteworthy. Revenue increased 14% to NZD 17.6 million driven by increased customer visits. Disposable incomes in the region are being buoyed by a strong economy underpinned by the dairy sector. Given the lack of quality hotels in Hamilton, SKC has decided to build a 4.5 star hotel near the casino with the aim of lifting foot traffic. The project will cost NZD 35 million and will be completed in Q1 FY15.

SKC expects to conclude negotiations on the AUD250 million Adelaide riverbank development by 31 December 2012. Also, it is awaiting the Auditor General’s report regarding the NZD 350 million National Convention Centre development. We have previously argued that these investments, while significant, could materially increase shareholder value in the long term.

Previous close Market cap
$3.990 $0 Million
52 week high/low
$4.080 - $3.250
Sector
Consumer Services

Intrinsic valuation

Moat rating Narrow
Business risk Medium
Pricing risk Medium
Company beta

Sector beta

Year 06/11A 06/12A 06/13E 06/14E
NPAT ($m) 130.6 142.2 146.8 152.8
EPS (c) 22.6 24.7 25.5 26.5
% change 0.1 8.9 3.2 4.1
DPS (c) 16.0 17.0 17.8 18.6
Franking (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Yield (%) 5.0 4.8 1.9 1.9
PER (x) 14.3 14.4 37.7 36.2
Source: Aspect Huntley analyst estimates.

6 month price chart

c Share Investor 2012

Share Investor

Friday, November 30, 2012

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Do you still Love Xero?

Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Steal & Tube

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Sky City Gaming: Morningstars look at Sky City's gaming

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