Share Price Alert: Auckland International Airport Ltd

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX] has been marking time in terms of share price over the previous 12 months but since November 25 2011 has climbed 9% from $2.28 at that date to finish trading at $2.49 at close of business last Friday.

Its 2011 Full Year profit of 120.8 million was up 15% on the same period a year earlier and its prospects for 2012 look promising.

This near monopoly utility is paying a dividend of slightly under 5% at the current share price so beats the street in terms of your bank deposit.

One of the main reasons why I have included AIA in its first Share Price Alert though is that there has been speculation over the weekend that a suitor could be on the blocks for part of the company.

The rise of the share price in the last 6 weeks could be explained by those closer to the speculation knowing more than I and buying because the market has been relatively flat for most stocks.

Any possible bid would be well north of 3 bucks so those with an appetite for a little risk might want to get in early this morning and put your bids in.


Share Price Alert Series

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2
Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

AIA @ Share Investor

Is Auckland International Airport set for M & A activity?
Share Investor Q & A: Auckland Airport's Simon Moutter
Auckland Council look set for a Auckland Airport Takeover
Auckland City Council new AIA Policy Doc
Make me an offer I cant refuse: Auckland International Airport Ltd
Long Term View: Auckland International Airport
VIDEO - Simon Moutter on Australian Airport Purchase
Auckland Airport Capital Raising a fair call
Auckland International Airport lands Australian Ports
What Infratil sale of Auckland Airport stake means
Is another Auckland Airport bid likely under a business friendly Government?
Latest Airport coverage
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?


Queenstown Airport Buyout @ Share Investor

Queenstown Airport: Queenstown Airport Update
Auckland Airport CEO on Queenstown Airport Fracas
Queenstown Airport: Court Case looks set to Drag
Queenstown Airport: Loud Voices & Loyalty
Queenstown Airport: Air New Zealand's Crocodile Tears
Queenstown Airport: AIA purchase good Long-Term but will cost shareholders Short-Term

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download AIA Company Reports





c Share Investor 2012

Is Auckland International Airport set for M & A activity?

Arial map of Auckland Airport infrastructure and some its land holdings.

From the rumour and speculation department comes an as yet unsubstantiated tip that there maybe a foreign interest kicking the tyres again at Auckland international Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX].

Market commentator Arthur Lim has speculated that the target of a mystery foreign group approved to make a $1.3 billion investment in New Zealand last year is likely to be a listed company like AIA given the secret nature of the plan.

"That it is kept so confidential does suggest it is a publicly listed company, Auckland International Airport is certainly a possibility," reckons Arthur.

Is Mr Lim Arthur or Martha about this or does his speculation have merit?

I don't know but the $1.3 billion figure suggested could well be applied to the bluff aluminum smelter, the Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] for a part share or perhaps New Zealand Refining Ltd [NZR.NZX].

Lets imagine though that Arthur is correct in his speculation.

Well, what we do know is that two different companies tried to buy all or either part of AIA in 2007, with a Canadian and Dubai backed bid but none of these bids were successful because of political interference from the central government of the day who changed laws to stop bids going through and Auckland Council's who considered that selling their 22.8% combined shareholding in the company was not prudent.

Well, things have changed since then and we have a more business friendly government that is unlikely to object to foreign buyers taking a large chunk of the airport.

The new Auckland council will still object to selling (even in the face of the mounting debt that Len Brown is piling on the city balance sheet) but there is an approximate 60% stake up for grabs if we discount the council stake, and the stakes held by the NZ Super Fund and the Accident Compensation Corporation.

I think if Arthur's speculation has some truth to it then the Airport is indeed in play and what is up for grabs would probably be a minority stake of less than 50% given the obvious political pressures that will still remain, even under a more business flexible National Government.

Any bid by a potential investor would have to consider the airports monopoly position in this market, its great management and its good potential growth as the Asia Pacific region expands and air links get busier.

It is getting ahead of myself but any bid would have to be north of $3.80, a price that I would have turned down had the Dubai bid in 2007 been successful.

AIA shares finished trading at $2.49 last Friday and have had a good run over the last few months, rising by around 9% in a flat overall market. AIA shares had been trading consistently between $2.20 - $2.30 for the majority of 2011 so rumours of mergers and acquisition could well have sparked interest amongst those in the know.



AIA @ Share Investor


Share Investor Q & A: Auckland Airport's Simon Moutter
Auckland Council look set for a Auckland Airport Takeover
Auckland City Council new AIA Policy Doc
Make me an offer I cant refuse: Auckland International Airport Ltd
Long Term View: Auckland International Airport
VIDEO - Simon Moutter on Australian Airport Purchase
Auckland Airport Capital Raising a fair call
Auckland International Airport lands Australian Ports
What Infratil sale of Auckland Airport stake means
Is another Auckland Airport bid likely under a business friendly Government?
Latest Airport coverage
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?


Queenstown Airport Buyout @ Share Investor

Queenstown Airport: Queenstown Airport Update
Auckland Airport CEO on Queenstown Airport Fracas
Queenstown Airport: Court Case looks set to Drag
Queenstown Airport: Loud Voices & Loyalty
Queenstown Airport: Air New Zealand's Crocodile Tears
Queenstown Airport: AIA purchase good Long-Term but will cost shareholders Short-Term

Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download AIA Company Reports


Steve Jobs Biography - By Walter Isaacson



c Share Investor 2012

Broker Stock Picks for 2012

I made my 2012 stock picks back in mid December and some of you maybe wondering what the professionals are thinking for next year.

Keep in mind, just like me they will have their biases and they may or may not indicate as to whether they own the stock they are picking - they should.

Some interesting picks that I will comment on latter in this spot.


Goldman Sachs

* SkyCity
* Ryman
* Telecom
* Infratil
* Kathmandu

McDouall Stuart

* Abano
* Diligent
* Ryman
* Skellerup
* Cue Energy

Forsyth Barr

* Fletcher Building
* F&P Appliance
* Chorus
* Sky TV
* Ryman

First NZ Capital

* Fletcher Building
* Mainfreight
* Chorus
* National Property Trust
* NZ Oil & Gas

MacQuarie Securities

* Chorus
* Pumpkin Patch
* Ryman
* Mainfreight
* Transpacific Industries

Hamilton Hindin Greene

* F&P Healthcare
* Westpac
* Chorus
* Nuplex
* Tower

Craigs Investment Partners

* Chorus
* Auckland Airport
* Ryman
* Fletcher Building
* Westpac


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

c Share Investor 2012

Share Price Alert: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd 2

Welcome to 2012 Share Investor Blog readers. I hope it is a prosperous - oh OK and a happy one too.

Lets get back to business!

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZX] had a very negative trading update out right at the arse end of 2012 -great to bury news at this time of year. This is after 2 years of apparent revenue and store growth and comes just two years after their IPO.

I have been skeptical of the sustainability of the growth of the company for the last 2 years as growth was pinned mostly on the opening of more stores and an unsustainable growth of same stores sales based on highly seasonal and constant sales promotions of merchandise.

To top this off competitors are nipping at Kathmandu's expensively decked out heels with both Jan Cameron's Macpac and FCO Fishing Camping Outdoors taking market share off the outdoor retail darling.

Cameron made a move to take a stake in Macpac in mid 2011 to compete head to head with KMD and it hasn't taken long for Macpac to make its mark given Jan's knowledge of the market, her retail experience and her intimate knowledge of how Kathmandu is run.

KMD shares took a 25% hit down to $1.64 on the trading update and recovered to close at $1.72 for the year. This is down from an IPO price of just over 2 bucks just over 2 years ago.

In a previous Share Price Alert for KMD back in May 2011 I warned that the share price was overvalued due to overly exuberant investor optimism which was based on management hype.

I picked this company as a buy in 2010 at under $1.50 in Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks because I thought the IPO price was too high and expectations by management similarly optimistic but I would now have to lower my sights to reflect the higher impact from competition, especially from Macpac.

The company is still a worthy one but at a far lower price than its IPO valuation. I would therefore be happier with a valuation of $1.05c given the poor outlook for retail (for the 3rd year in a row) in general for 2012 and lower if the company does not respond well to all the negative impacts it will face this year.

Happy New Year current KMD investors and an even happier one to those of you who might get this share at half its IPO value.

Share Price Alert Series



Mainfreight Ltd 3
Fletcher Building Ltd 4
Fletcher Building Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 5
Ecoya Ltd
Contact Energy Ltd 4
The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Kathmandu @ Share Investor

Jan Cameron makes her move on Kathmandu
Share Price Alert: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings: Profit Upgrade lacks accurate comparison
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd: The First Year
Kathmandu Holdings Ltd: 2010 full year profit analysis
Chart of the Day: Kathmandu Holdings Ltd
Kathmandu Holdings: Market Update Misleads
Kathmandu's 2011 Results Under Pressure from Jan Cameron
Kathmandu IPO: Prospectus Analysis
Kathmandu IPO: Jan Cameron lands a blow to IPO
Kathmandu IPO: What is it worth?
Kathmandu IPO: Retail Interest HighKathmandu IPO: A tough mountain to climb
Kathmandu No.1 but IPO should get the Bullet
Download the detailed Kathmandu Value Cruncher Report - Requires free registration at Share Investor Forum to download
Download Kathmandu IPO Prospectus
KMD Investor Presentation to Macquarie

Discuss Kathmandu @ Share Investor Forum

Warren Buffett's 3 Favorite Books: A guide to The Intelligent Investor, Security Analysis, and The Wealth of Nations by Preston George Pysh Buy new: $17.99 / Used from: $13.22 Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2011