Thursday, April 14, 2011

Hanover Finance: Hotchin Ponzi Scheme Suppression; Investors failed by SFO & SEC

The lifting of name suppression yesterday for Mark Hotchin and Kerry Finnigan, a former director and chief executive of the Hanover Group on a case involving their "investment " of personal money in a ponzi scheme, opens up a number of questions for investors in the failed Hanover Finance that went bust in 2008, taking with it over half a billion of investors money.

Hotchin's lawyer, on Hotchin's instruction, at the time argued that disclosure of his name would inflict the following on Hotchin:

*
"There would be concern over the investment strategies adopted within the Hanover organisation because of the loss of credibility and damage to my reputation."

* "Investors and third parties with whom Hanover and its entities deal could well come to the conclusion that if one of the directors of Hanover was making inappropriate investment decisions personally then he could well be doing the same for the group. This in turn could cause a lack of investor confidence and support potential for a run on funds, the possible collapse or restructure of the group with obvious impact on its 600 employees."

* "The commercial relationship Hanover has with commercial partners would also be placed under stress. In those circumstances I anticipate that my fellow shareholder [London-based Eric Watson] and director could well request my resignation as a director."

Of course the claim that name disclosure for Hotchin would seriously affect the Hanover Group, in terms of lost investor confidence, may well have an element of truth to it but the main reason for the, until now, permanent name suppression, was self preservation on Hotchin's part, as the lifting of the suppression orders would have put a dent in his own ponzi scheme happening at Hanover Finance. NZ Herald, April 13 2011

The ponzi scheme that Hotchin lost money in promised 160% returns over 2 months, yes, you read that right a 960% annual return! The deals lacked paperwork and clear investment details and the recipients of the funds spent the money on personal items, like real estate, jewelry and extensive luxury travel - much like Hotchin and Eric Watson were doing with Hanover investors moola in fact.

The fact that Hotchin and Finnigan put their own money into this obvious ponzi scheme points at the risks they were taking with others money within the walls of Hanover's head office in Auckland. Clearly if investors knew about Hotchin's involvement in a get rich quick scheme they probably would not have piled more of their money into Hanover.

Disclosure of Hotchin and Finnegan's involvement in such a scam was clearly in the public interest then but the courts decided, wrongly in my opinion and probably in the opinion of most of us, to keep name suppression a permanent thing.

Judge Weir at the time stated:

"there is a failure also to identify any person or past person who would specifically benefit by publication of the details of the case".

It can be argued of course, as I have above, that those that would have benefited from lifting name suppression would have been prospective investors in Hanover.

Putting aside that poor judgement The Serious Fraud Office (SFO), that was directly involved in the case, and other legistlative arms of the State such as the Securities Commission (SEC) who are tasked with protecting investors from financially reckless individuals such as Hotchin and Finnigan, were happy to keep this kind of disclosure, that is normal in business, secret from investors.

The court judgement lay unchallenged by either the SEC or the SFO and therefore they failed in their duty to make investors aware of the poor judgement and financial ability and therefore the inability of Hotchin and Finnigan to be competent managers of other peoples money.

The New Zealand Herald should be congratulated for overturning what the SFO and SEC had no interest in.


Related Share Investor Reading


Mark Hotchin Comes Out Swinging
Hanover's "White Knights" are really daylight robbers
Hanover collapse: It was just a matter of time
Money Managers Saga: 3 Story wrap
Money Managers gives First Step investors the middle finger
Greed is bad: Geneva Finance Folds
Financial 101: Learn before you leap
Kevin's Blog


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c Share Investor 2011

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Share Price Alert: Ryman Healthcare Ltd



Ryman Healthcare ltd [RYM.NZX] has had a good year results wise, with a 2010 half year profit up 25% on the comparable 2009 period. It has a long history of uninterrupted increasing profits and dividends.

While this success was reflected in the RYM stock price pre the 2008 stockmarket crash, post crash the stock reached as low as $1.12 at the beginning of 2009 on fears the property sector which had also crashed was going to impact on RYM - that was not to be. Since then the stock has pretty much risen unabated on a series of good profit results.

Yesterday the RYM stock price hit a 4 year intraday high of $2.57 and finished trading at $2.51 and is around 20c off its all time highs. The stock has put on nearly 10% in value since the end of March/ beginning of April and nearly 5% in just the last week.

Just to warn punters that the share price is at near high historical levels and while a positive 2011 Full Year profit out in May is probably the impetus for the rise, investors should be cautious at this fully priced company. While the historical growth levels may continue in the future, as they have for a decade or more and the share price may take a ride with it, it is worth backing off a bit if you already have your eyes on buying this company for the long term and buying on any weakness the share price may have.

Having said that results usually do the talking to the market and this could be the middle of a rise in share price that reflects the long term potential of this star NZX company.

Buy on weakness for excellent long-term gains.


Share Price Alert

Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd



Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Ryman Healthcare Ltd: 2011 Half Year Profit Review
Gordon Macleod on Ryman Healthcare's Australian Expansion
Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?

Discuss RYM @ Share Investor Forum
Download RYM Company Reports


From Fishpond.co.nz

Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time - By Virginia Green

Hubbard: A Biography of Allan Hubbard


Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011

Monday, April 11, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back

It has been nearly 4 months since the Share Investor 2011 Stock Picks and I thought it might be appropriate now to look back at how those picks have done. Please keep in mind that my criteria for picking stocks is long term gains and also that the stockmarket as a whole has risen in the 4 months (see 6 month chart below) that has passed so any gains must factor in these two key points.

I am discovering any gains and losses from my picks as I write this post rather than looking at them first and then making a decision to publish, so you, dear readers, will discover how well or badly I did as I did.



I will outline below what price the stock was picked at and how much it has gained or lost since the stock picks came out on December 17 2010.

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking back


Picks from the NZX


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[
FPH.NZX]

Image

Picked at $3.06c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.23, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.06c.

0% gain.

Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]


Picked at $2.38c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.16, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $2.50c.

A 5% gain.



Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[
SKC.NZX]

Image

Picked at $3.23c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 8c net dividend, and reaching a post pick high of $3.50, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.41c.

A 8% gain.



Charlies Group Ltd
[
CHA.NZX]

Picked at 17.5c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of 28c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 27c.

A 54% gain.


Michael Hill International Ltd
[
MHI.NZX]

Picked at 85c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 1.5c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of 92c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 88c.

A 5% gain.



New Zealand Refining Ltd
[
NZR.NZX]
Picked at $4.20c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 10c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of $5.20c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $4.75c.

A 20% gain.



New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[
NZO.NZX]
Picked at 86c on December 17 2011, reaching a post pick high of 94c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 94c.

A 10% gain.


Minor NZX Picks

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [
KMD.NZX]

A 42% gain.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ]

A 14% gain

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX]

A 6% gain.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX]

A 6% loss.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX]

A 15% gain.



ASX Picks

Tatts Group Ltd [
TTS.ASX] A 10% loss.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX] A 3% gain.
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX] A 5% loss.


Nasdaq


Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A 0% gain.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

Returns ranged from a 10% loss for Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] up to a 54% gain for Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. Averaged out my 2011 share picks have returned an average net return of 10.33% over slightly less than 4 months if I included them in equal portions in a portfolio. This compares to a return of 4% for the NZX50 as a whole. (see NZX50 chart at top of post)

The market overall appears to be overvalued to me - with the exception of one or two stocks that have lost some value - and I have not bought any shares for well over a year now. My own portfolio has gained 13% since I began re-tracking it for this blog back in October 2010 and I cant see the market gaining much more for 2011 due to very poor global economic conditions and uncertainty as to where the globe is heading in the short to medium term.

Disclosure : I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the
Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


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Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $9.73
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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 April 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio was up marginally in the first full week of April. The portfolio was up by 0.23% or $648.36 on the April 1 update . For the first 14 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 8.21% or $21048.99 . This weeks rise was due, primarily, to a 38c rise in MFT, and smaller rises in RYM and FRE . Most of the remaining stocks were down marginally.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $23479.21 at close of reporting season for 2010 and partway through the 2011 year. There are also approx $50000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.


Share Investor Portfolio as at 17:30:00, Friday 08 April, 2011 (NZT)

Stock
Quantity
Cost price
Total cost
Market price
Market value
Change
%
AIA

2,000 $1.700 $3,400.00 $2.185 $4,370.00 $970.00 28.53%
AIA

2,000 $1.510 $3,020.00 $2.185 $4,370.00 $1,350.00 44.70%
AIA

558 $0.000 $0.00 $2.185 $1,219.23 $1,219.23
AIA

754 $2.150 $1,621.10 $2.185 $1,647.49 $26.39 1.63%
ASBPB

3,027 $0.000 $0.00 $0.675 $2,043.23 $2,043.23
ASBPB

6,973 $1.000 $6,973.00 $0.675 $4,706.78 $2,266.23 32.50%
BGR

619 $0.000 $0.00 $1.400 $866.60 $866.60
BGR

2,381 $0.990 $2,357.19 $1.400 $3,333.40 $976.21 41.41%
FBU

284 $0.000 $0.00 $9.370 $2,661.08 $2,661.08
FBU

830 $9.750 $8,092.50 $9.370 $7,777.10 $315.40 3.90%
FPH

3,000 $2.350 $7,050.00 $3.060 $9,180.00 $2,130.00 30.21%
FPH

541 $0.000 $0.00 $3.060 $1,655.46 $1,655.46
FPH

1,459 $3.720 $5,427.48 $3.060 $4,464.54 $962.94 17.74%
FRE

2,054 $0.000 $0.00 $3.270 $6,716.58 $6,716.58
FRE

6,577 $3.630 $23,874.51 $3.270 $21,506.79 $2,367.72 9.92%
GFF

586 $0.000 $0.00 $1.650 $966.90 $966.90
GFF

1,414 $2.330 $3,294.62 $1.650 $2,333.10 $961.52 29.18%
HLG

299 $0.000 $0.00 $3.700 $1,106.30 $1,106.30
HLG

701 $2.530 $1,773.53 $3.700 $2,593.70 $820.17 46.25%
KIP

190 $0.000 $0.00 $1.000 $190.00 $190.00
KIP

810 $1.480 $1,198.80 $1.000 $810.00 $388.80 32.43%
MFT

1,000 $7.960 $7,960.00 $9.330 $9,330.00 $1,370.00 17.21%
MFT

1,838 $8.000 $14,704.00 $9.330 $17,148.54 $2,444.54 16.63%
MFT

657 $0.000 $0.00 $9.330 $6,129.81 $6,129.81
MFT

1,505 $4.200 $6,321.00 $9.330 $14,041.65 $7,720.65 122.14%
MHI

1,646 $0.860 $1,415.56 $0.880 $1,448.48 $32.92 2.33%
MHI

7,000 $0.630 $4,410.00 $0.880 $6,160.00 $1,750.00 39.68%
MHI

494 $1.050 $518.70 $0.880 $434.72 $83.98 16.19%
MHI

860 $0.000 $0.00 $0.880 $756.80 $756.80
PPG

31 $0.000 $0.00 $0.240 $7.44 $7.44
PPG

1,500 $0.440 $660.00 $0.240 $360.00 $300.00 45.45%
PPG

1,004 $0.800 $803.20 $0.240 $240.96 $562.24 70.00%
PPL

1,000 $3.090 $3,090.00 $1.290 $1,290.00 $1,800.00 58.25%
PPL

1,000 $2.870 $2,870.00 $1.290 $1,290.00 $1,580.00 55.05%
PPL

939 $4.200 $3,943.80 $1.290 $1,211.31 $2,732.49 69.29%
PPL

975 $0.000 $0.00 $1.290 $1,257.75 $1,257.75
PPL

1,086 $1.530 $1,661.58 $1.290 $1,400.94 $260.64 15.69%
RYM

459 $0.000 $0.00 $2.480 $1,138.32 $1,138.32
RYM

4,586 $1.970 $9,034.42 $2.480 $11,373.28 $2,338.86 25.89%
SKC

5,750 $7.430 $42,722.50 $3.410 $19,607.50 $23,115.00 54.10%
SKC

1,000 $7.600 $7,600.00 $3.410 $3,410.00 $4,190.00 55.13%
SKC

2,750 $7.700 $21,175.00 $3.410 $9,377.50 $11,797.50 55.71%
SKC

1,431 $8.750 $12,521.25 $3.410 $4,879.71 $7,641.54 61.03%
SKC

272 $4.720 $1,283.84 $3.410 $927.52 $356.32 27.75%
SKC

25,712 $0.000 $0.00 $3.410 $87,677.92 $87,677.92
STU

78 $0.000 $0.00 $2.740 $213.72 $213.72
STU

303 $4.740 $1,436.22 $2.740 $830.22 $606.00 42.19%
WHS

4,500 $3.730 $16,785.00 $3.450 $15,525.00 $1,260.00 7.51%
WHS

6,979 $6.000 $41,874.00 $3.450 $24,077.55 $17,796.45 42.50%
WHS

15 $3.710 $55.65 $3.450 $51.75 $3.90 7.01%
WHS

3,506 $0.000 $0.00 $3.450 $12,095.70 $12,095.70


24.83%


Total cost Market value Change

$270,928.45 $338,212.36 $67,283.91


Share Investor Portfolio @ Share Investor

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 April 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 March 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 28 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 21 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 14 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 7 February 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 31 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 24 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 10 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 3 January 2011
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 27 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 20 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 13 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 6 December 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 29 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 22 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 15 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 8 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 1 November 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 25 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 18 October 2010
Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 11 October 2010
Share Investor Dividends


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


Related Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $9.73
Usually ships in 24 hours

Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition
Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition by GRAHAM
Buy new: $37.80 / Used from: $29.48
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy these two Books @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond




c Share Investor 2011