Friday, April 15, 2011

Tourism Holdings Takeover: Dont Sell (UPDATE 2)

UPDATE 2: THL shares finished today's trading up 10c to 70c or nearly 17%. This is 2c more than the offer from Ballylinch LP.

Ballylinch LP this morning announced that it intends to make a partial takeover offer to acquire 40.85% of the ordinary shares and redeemable shares in Tourism Holdings Ltd [THL.NZX]that it does not already own. The company currently owns 19.14% of the ordinary shares in THL.

The offer is for 67.5c per ordinary share and this is a 12.5% premium to the closing price on the NZX yesterday.

While the offer is higher than the market price (see one year chart below) and the company has been trading at these low levels because of its poor management and dire results over a number of years, it is opportunistic (and canny of course) of Ballylinch to make an offer for this company when its fortunes are at its lowest ebb in many a year and they are likely after the lions share of THL so they can realise assets that are worth more than the THL share price.

Tourism has been a fickle beast over the last few years and in combo with poor management the share price has obviously suffered. The thing is regardless of its management ills the company is going to see better times in terms of tourist numbers to their businesses and this will eventually reflect in a higher share price as the overall macro situation will get better for them. The 2011 Rugby World Cup should be a boon for THL.

On this basis alone shareholders should soundly reject Ballylinch's offer and hold tight for either a better offer or better times for the company.


Tourism Holdings @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Tourism Holdings Ltd
Tourism Holdings worth more broken up
Long Term View: Tourism Holdings Ltd
2011 World Cup Fever

Discuss THL @ Share Investor Forum
Download THL Company Reports



c Share Investor 2011





Thursday, April 14, 2011

Hanover Finance: Hotchin Ponzi Scheme Suppression; Investors failed by SFO & SEC

The lifting of name suppression yesterday for Mark Hotchin and Kerry Finnigan, a former director and chief executive of the Hanover Group on a case involving their "investment " of personal money in a ponzi scheme, opens up a number of questions for investors in the failed Hanover Finance that went bust in 2008, taking with it over half a billion of investors money.

Hotchin's lawyer, on Hotchin's instruction, at the time argued that disclosure of his name would inflict the following on Hotchin:

*
"There would be concern over the investment strategies adopted within the Hanover organisation because of the loss of credibility and damage to my reputation."

* "Investors and third parties with whom Hanover and its entities deal could well come to the conclusion that if one of the directors of Hanover was making inappropriate investment decisions personally then he could well be doing the same for the group. This in turn could cause a lack of investor confidence and support potential for a run on funds, the possible collapse or restructure of the group with obvious impact on its 600 employees."

* "The commercial relationship Hanover has with commercial partners would also be placed under stress. In those circumstances I anticipate that my fellow shareholder [London-based Eric Watson] and director could well request my resignation as a director."

Of course the claim that name disclosure for Hotchin would seriously affect the Hanover Group, in terms of lost investor confidence, may well have an element of truth to it but the main reason for the, until now, permanent name suppression, was self preservation on Hotchin's part, as the lifting of the suppression orders would have put a dent in his own ponzi scheme happening at Hanover Finance. NZ Herald, April 13 2011

The ponzi scheme that Hotchin lost money in promised 160% returns over 2 months, yes, you read that right a 960% annual return! The deals lacked paperwork and clear investment details and the recipients of the funds spent the money on personal items, like real estate, jewelry and extensive luxury travel - much like Hotchin and Eric Watson were doing with Hanover investors moola in fact.

The fact that Hotchin and Finnigan put their own money into this obvious ponzi scheme points at the risks they were taking with others money within the walls of Hanover's head office in Auckland. Clearly if investors knew about Hotchin's involvement in a get rich quick scheme they probably would not have piled more of their money into Hanover.

Disclosure of Hotchin and Finnegan's involvement in such a scam was clearly in the public interest then but the courts decided, wrongly in my opinion and probably in the opinion of most of us, to keep name suppression a permanent thing.

Judge Weir at the time stated:

"there is a failure also to identify any person or past person who would specifically benefit by publication of the details of the case".

It can be argued of course, as I have above, that those that would have benefited from lifting name suppression would have been prospective investors in Hanover.

Putting aside that poor judgement The Serious Fraud Office (SFO), that was directly involved in the case, and other legistlative arms of the State such as the Securities Commission (SEC) who are tasked with protecting investors from financially reckless individuals such as Hotchin and Finnigan, were happy to keep this kind of disclosure, that is normal in business, secret from investors.

The court judgement lay unchallenged by either the SEC or the SFO and therefore they failed in their duty to make investors aware of the poor judgement and financial ability and therefore the inability of Hotchin and Finnigan to be competent managers of other peoples money.

The New Zealand Herald should be congratulated for overturning what the SFO and SEC had no interest in.


Related Share Investor Reading


Mark Hotchin Comes Out Swinging
Hanover's "White Knights" are really daylight robbers
Hanover collapse: It was just a matter of time
Money Managers Saga: 3 Story wrap
Money Managers gives First Step investors the middle finger
Greed is bad: Geneva Finance Folds
Financial 101: Learn before you leap
Kevin's Blog


Recommended Fishpond Reading

Crisis: One Central Bank Governor and the Global Financial Collapse

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Share Price Alert: Ryman Healthcare Ltd



Ryman Healthcare ltd [RYM.NZX] has had a good year results wise, with a 2010 half year profit up 25% on the comparable 2009 period. It has a long history of uninterrupted increasing profits and dividends.

While this success was reflected in the RYM stock price pre the 2008 stockmarket crash, post crash the stock reached as low as $1.12 at the beginning of 2009 on fears the property sector which had also crashed was going to impact on RYM - that was not to be. Since then the stock has pretty much risen unabated on a series of good profit results.

Yesterday the RYM stock price hit a 4 year intraday high of $2.57 and finished trading at $2.51 and is around 20c off its all time highs. The stock has put on nearly 10% in value since the end of March/ beginning of April and nearly 5% in just the last week.

Just to warn punters that the share price is at near high historical levels and while a positive 2011 Full Year profit out in May is probably the impetus for the rise, investors should be cautious at this fully priced company. While the historical growth levels may continue in the future, as they have for a decade or more and the share price may take a ride with it, it is worth backing off a bit if you already have your eyes on buying this company for the long term and buying on any weakness the share price may have.

Having said that results usually do the talking to the market and this could be the middle of a rise in share price that reflects the long term potential of this star NZX company.

Buy on weakness for excellent long-term gains.


Share Price Alert

Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd



Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Ryman Healthcare Ltd: 2011 Half Year Profit Review
Gordon Macleod on Ryman Healthcare's Australian Expansion
Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
Long Term View: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Stock of the Week: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?

Discuss RYM @ Share Investor Forum
Download RYM Company Reports


From Fishpond.co.nz

Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time - By Virginia Green

Hubbard: A Biography of Allan Hubbard


Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011

Monday, April 11, 2011

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking Back

It has been nearly 4 months since the Share Investor 2011 Stock Picks and I thought it might be appropriate now to look back at how those picks have done. Please keep in mind that my criteria for picking stocks is long term gains and also that the stockmarket as a whole has risen in the 4 months (see 6 month chart below) that has passed so any gains must factor in these two key points.

I am discovering any gains and losses from my picks as I write this post rather than looking at them first and then making a decision to publish, so you, dear readers, will discover how well or badly I did as I did.



I will outline below what price the stock was picked at and how much it has gained or lost since the stock picks came out on December 17 2010.

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks: Looking back


Picks from the NZX


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[
FPH.NZX]

Image

Picked at $3.06c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.23, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.06c.

0% gain.

Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZX]


Picked at $2.38c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of $3.16, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $2.50c.

A 5% gain.



Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
[
SKC.NZX]

Image

Picked at $3.23c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 8c net dividend, and reaching a post pick high of $3.50, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $3.41c.

A 8% gain.



Charlies Group Ltd
[
CHA.NZX]

Picked at 17.5c on December 17 2011 and reaching a post pick high of 28c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 27c.

A 54% gain.


Michael Hill International Ltd
[
MHI.NZX]

Picked at 85c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 1.5c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of 92c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 88c.

A 5% gain.



New Zealand Refining Ltd
[
NZR.NZX]
Picked at $4.20c on December 17 2011, with the addition of a 10c net dividend and reaching a post pick high of $5.20c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at $4.75c.

A 20% gain.



New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd
[
NZO.NZX]
Picked at 86c on December 17 2011, reaching a post pick high of 94c, at close of trade Friday 8 April was trading at 94c.

A 10% gain.


Minor NZX Picks

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [
KMD.NZX]

A 42% gain.

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ]

A 14% gain

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZX]

A 6% gain.

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX]

A 6% loss.

Fisher & Paykel Appliances Ltd [FPA.NZX]

A 15% gain.



ASX Picks

Tatts Group Ltd [
TTS.ASX] A 10% loss.
Tabcorp Holdings Ltd [TAH.ASX] A 3% gain.
Reef Casino Trust[RCT.ASX] A 5% loss.


Nasdaq


Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] A 0% gain.

Conclusion & Outlook for 2011

Returns ranged from a 10% loss for Tatts Group Ltd [TTS.ASX] up to a 54% gain for Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX]. Averaged out my 2011 share picks have returned an average net return of 10.33% over slightly less than 4 months if I included them in equal portions in a portfolio. This compares to a return of 4% for the NZX50 as a whole. (see NZX50 chart at top of post)

The market overall appears to be overvalued to me - with the exception of one or two stocks that have lost some value - and I have not bought any shares for well over a year now. My own portfolio has gained 13% since I began re-tracking it for this blog back in October 2010 and I cant see the market gaining much more for 2011 due to very poor global economic conditions and uncertainty as to where the globe is heading in the short to medium term.

Disclosure : I own FPH, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the
Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Related

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks


Related Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $9.73
Usually ships in 24 hours

Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition
Security Analysis: The Classic 1934 Edition by GRAHAM
Buy new: $37.80 / Used from: $29.48
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy these two Books @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2010 & 2011