Share Investor

Monday, June 20, 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 June 2011

The Share Investor Portfolio was up in the third week of June, the first time after 3 consecutive weeks of falls. The portfolio was up by 0.81% or $2188.70 on the June 10 update . For the first 23 weeks of 2011 the portfolio has increased by 13.67 % or $34891.83 . This weeks rise was due, primarily, to a 16c rise in SKC because of the winning of a contract to build a National Convention Centre. There were a number of smaller falls in insubstantial portfolio stocks and larger drops in stocks like WHS and FRE that make up a larger proportion of the portfolio in an NZX 50 that was down for the week.

The total of unspent dividends and interest in the bank as at 26 May from the 2010 - 2011 earnings years is $25382.95 at close of reporting season for 2010 and at the end of the 2011 1st half reporting year. There are also approx $55000.00 in tax credits earned from the portfolio since it began in late 2002.

The Share Investor Portfolio has increased in value by 18.46% or $48649.08 since I began tracking it for this blog on October 11 2010

Share Investor Portfolio as at 5:27:40, Friday 17 June, 2011 (NZT)

Stock

Quantity

Cost price

Total cost

Market price

Market value

Change

AIA

2,000

$1.700

$3,400.00

$2.240

$4,480.00

$1,080.00

31.76%

AIA

2,000

$1.510

$3,020.00

$2.240

$4,480.00

$1,460.00

48.34%

AIA

558

$0.000

$0.00

$2.240

$1,249.92

AIA

754

$2.150

$1,621.10

$2.240

$1,688.96

$67.86

4.19%

ASBPB

3,109

$0.000

$0.00

$0.740

$2,300.66

ASBPB

6,891

$1.000

$6,891.00

$0.740

$5,099.34

$1,791.66

26.00%

BGR

619

$0.000

$0.00

$1.350

$835.65

BGR

2,381

$0.990

$2,357.19

$1.350

$3,214.35

$857.16

36.36%

FBU

284

$0.000

$0.00

$8.620

$2,448.08

FBU

830

$9.750

$8,092.50

$8.620

$7,154.60

$937.90

11.59%

FPH

3,000

$2.350

$7,050.00

$2.950

$8,850.00

$1,800.00

25.53%

FPH

1,365

$3.720

$5,077.80

$2.950

$4,026.75

$1,051.05

20.70%

FPH

635

$0.000

$0.00

$2.950

$1,873.25

FRE

2,054

$0.000

$0.00

$3.380

$6,942.52

FRE

6,577

$3.630

$23,874.51

$3.380

$22,230.26

$1,644.25

6.89%

GFF

586

$0.000

$0.00

$1.360

$796.96

GFF

1,414

$2.330

$3,294.62

$1.360

$1,923.04

$1,371.58

41.63%

HLG

299

$0.000

$0.00

$3.550

$1,061.45

HLG

701

$2.530

$1,773.53

$3.550

$2,488.55

$715.02

40.32%

KIP

763

$1.480

$1,129.24

$1.035

$789.71

$339.54

30.07%

KIP

237

$0.000

$0.00

$1.035

$245.30

MFT

1,000

$7.960

$7,960.00

$10.100

$10,100.00

$2,140.00

26.88%

MFT

1,838

$8.000

$14,704.00

$10.100

$18,563.80

$3,859.80

26.25%

MFT

1,375

$4.200

$5,775.00

$10.100

$13,887.50

$8,112.50

140.48%

MFT

787

$0.000

$0.00

$10.100

$7,948.70

MHI

1,646

$0.860

$1,415.56

$0.940

$1,547.24

$131.68

9.30%

MHI

7,000

$0.630

$4,410.00

$0.940

$6,580.00

$2,170.00

49.21%

MHI

494

$1.050

$518.70

$0.940

$464.36

$54.34

10.48%

MHI

860

$0.000

$0.00

$0.940

$808.40

PPG

$0.000

$0.00

$0.250

$7.75

PPG

1,500

$0.440

$660.00

$0.250

$375.00

$285.00

43.18%

PPG

1,004

$0.800

$803.20

$0.250

$251.00

$552.20

68.75%

PPL

1,000

$3.090

$3,090.00

$1.030

$1,030.00

$2,060.00

66.67%

PPL

1,000

$2.870

$2,870.00

$1.030

$1,030.00

$1,840.00

64.11%

PPL

939

$4.200

$3,943.80

$1.030

$967.17

$2,976.63

75.48%

PPL

975

$0.000

$0.00

$1.030

$1,004.25

PPL

1,086

$1.530

$1,661.58

$1.030

$1,118.58

$543.00

32.68%

RYM

555

$0.000

$0.00

$2.700

$1,498.50

RYM

4,445

$1.970

$8,756.65

$2.700

$12,001.50

$3,244.85

37.06%

SKC

5,750

$7.430

$42,722.50

$3.620

$20,815.00

$21,907.50

51.28%

SKC

1,000

$7.600

$7,600.00

$3.620

$3,620.00

$3,980.00

52.37%

SKC

2,750

$7.700

$21,175.00

$3.620

$9,955.00

$11,220.00

52.99%

SKC

1,431

$8.750

$12,521.25

$3.620

$5,180.22

$7,341.03

58.63%

SKC

272

$4.720

$1,283.84

$3.620

$984.64

$299.20

23.31%

SKC

25,712

$0.000

$0.00

$3.620

$93,077.44

STU

$0.000

$0.00

$2.690

$209.82

STU

303

$4.740

$1,436.22

$2.690

$815.07

$621.15

43.25%

WHS

4,500

$3.730

$16,785.00

$3.550

$15,975.00

$810.00

4.83%

WHS

6,979

$6.000

$41,874.00

$3.550

$24,775.45

$17,098.55

40.83%

WHS

$3.710

$55.65

$3.550

$53.25

$2.40

4.31%

WHS

3,506

$0.000

$0.00

$3.550

$12,446.30

30.29%

	Total cost	Market value	Change
	$269,603.44	$351,270.28	$81,666.84

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c Share Investor 2011

Friday, June 17, 2011

Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 2

Xero Ltd [XRO.NZX] stock has taken a beating since its last Share Price Alert back in January. It was noticed back then because the share price had risen 40% in less than two months to trade at $2.91 on January 12 2011. This was an over-exuberance of buying from "insider" tech heads and nerds after a more pleasing 2011 half year result.

Since then though the share price has pulled back 71c to close at $2.20c or around 25% yesterday in a overall market that has gained around 15% since January.

As I said in January this share price could not be sustained but of course the big pull back in share price means the company looks more attractive to those who were looking at getting in.

You might expect a further pull-back as global markets look set for another down period on European debt woes so be patient if you are looking at adding this to your portfolio.

Look for support at around 2 bucks but patience will be the key to a relative bargain.

Share Price Alert Series

Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Xero Ltd @ Share Investor

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Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum
Download Xero Company Reports

Recommended Amazon Reading

Xero For Dummies (For Dummies (Business & Personal Finance)) by Heather Smith
Buy new: $26.68 / Used from: $12.37
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c Share Investor 2011

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4

Since my last Share Price Alert on Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] just a week ago at $1.15, PPL shares have sunk another another 13c or 15% to a current intra-day price of $1.03. shares are off a 52 week low of 98c yesterday after a company restructure and profit downgrade announced Wednesday.

PPL shares have lost approx 59c this year so far and since an April 2010 high of $2.30 they have shed more than 70% of their value.

This might present an opportunity to buy PPL on the cheapish side.

I would be patient though, because management don't seem very clear about the future of the company and its trading proposition over the calendar year and further pressure is likely to come over the rest of 2011-2012 as people close their wallets, head for cheaper less brand oriented fare and the company realises losses from the US store closures and a poor start to "winter" trading - a winter that hasn't arrived yet and will be severely impacting on margins.

This will not last however, PPL is a good brand and once the economy gets going again - whenever that is - we will see this company doing better as mums start to look for brands again.

A rider to this is the poor management of the company. It needs to be changed because of the poor performance of the company and bad decisions made over the last 5 years and if it does the company will clearly be better off without the weight.

Again, be very patient and look for further weakness to buy. This share has more downside to come.

Disc I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Share Price Alert Series

Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Digging at Pumpkin's Profit
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Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

Buy What Was I Thinking: A Memoir @ Fishpond.co.nz

What Was I Thinking: A Memoir, by Paul Henry

c Share Investor 2011

Pumpkin Patch Ltd: Management need to walk

I have been a long suffering Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] for 5 years and the losses to the portfolio have been significant in terms of this share.

The latest bad news and profit downgrade out yesterday has got me thinking about the future of this share in the Share Investor Portfolio, and the future for the company under present management.

Lets go back over the last 5 years and see how the company has progressed.

Revenue for the patch has gone from $280 million and $24.6 million profit in 2005 to $381 million revenue and $25.5 million profit in 2010. It hasn't been a straightline from 2005 - 201o but patchy progress with big dips in profit between those years.

The entry of the company into the United States in 2005 was done slowly and they tested the market but clearly mistakes were made along the way as they continued to roll out US stores even though they never really fired. In 2009 the company made a decision to abandon 20 or so US stores that were bleeding red ink the most and held onto around 15 that they saw as promising. Over the last 2 years the company even opened an additional 5 stores in that market!

As we know yesterday the pumpkin pulled the plug on the remaining US stores with a cost of some $11 million, which takes the combined cost of entry into the US market of close to $50 million. This excludes lost opportunity costs.

Now I wasn't against expansion into this market and seemed very bullish about the long term prospects for the company back in 2008 but much water, poor decisions, and 50 million bucks has passed under the bridge since then so you can excuse me if my mind has changed somewhat.

The expansion was clearly executed poorly.

Yes, retailing has been suffering globally over the last 3 years, especially in the United States but management should have seen the writing on the wall after 3 years of being in the states in 2009 and pulled the plug back then. It defies belief to think that they were still confident that the company could make a go of it and took a further 2 years to come to yesterdays conclusion.

Management that made decisions to enter the US and stay there while sustaining these big losses are still at the helm and shareholders should be asking whether they should still be there given they have problems in the United Kingdom with stores having been there for the best part of a decade and yet to turn a profit yet management are bullish about being in this market:

"The United Kingdom and the recently opened Ireland stores remain an important part of the Company’s long term growth strategies. The plans being developed for the United Kingdom will enhance overall short term earnings performances and provide a stronger and more sustainable platform on which to implement future growth strategies".

I am picking that UK stores will be closed sometime in the future, they should be, they are losing shareholder money, but management still see fit to continue their failing experiment.

Ironically the only people losing their jobs are some at head office in Auckland and direct store management and workers on the ground in the United States and management have commented on this in yesterdays release:

“We have always prided ourselves of the closeness of our teams that operate across the business. While the decisions we have made today are necessary we cannot overlook the fact that a large number of our team members will be impacted, with many being long serving employees who have contributed to the success of Pumpkin Patch over the years. We will of course be doing everything we can to help them and the rest of the team during this time. We would like to thank all of the team for their continued support and enthusiasm for the brand”.

I would like to see a board replacement and the resignation of key directors including CEO Maurice Prendergast. Their expansion plans have failed dsmally and have cost investors hundreds of millions in lost share value and close to $50 million off the bottomline.

Nothing personal, its just business.

Disc I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying
Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

New From Fishpond.co.nz

Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time - By Virginia Green

c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor

Monday, June 20, 2011

Share Investor Portfolio: Value @ 17 June 2011

Friday, June 17, 2011

Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 2

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4

Pumpkin Patch Ltd: Management need to walk

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