Sophia is thinking of home?

Burger Fuel IPO: Burger Fool?

There are many things that are still unclear in the manifold press releases regarding the Burger Fuel IPO.

I understood the 15M from the IPO was for expansion of outlets but then the IPO according to some, is about the royalty revenue from franchising the Burger Fuel concept.

The figures given in the press releases(I havent read the prospectus as I cant seem to download it from the BF website) seem to stress the 3M odd income and 250,000 odd loss for the last 9 months or so.

One might imagine then that BF may want to open some company owned stores with the 15M. Lets face it, to fit out, train staff, leases and the like to start one of those stores is well north of half a mil, so you aint going to get more than 20 stores for that 15M IPO moola.

There is also that key comment that initial shareholders will have the right to buy shares at $1 again in the next 18 months or so.

Another factor is that public holders only get 25% of the action, so that 3M odd revenue mentioned is less than a million for the likes of you and me.

The real money for this company will be in growing the franchise model. As we have seen in New Zealand Restaurant Brands(RBD) is the poorer cousin to its big daddy YUM! the franchisor.

Having said that though, even if BF grew revenue to 500M (picked high just to prove a point) the typical royalty rate of around 8% of the gross would give 40M in gross revenue for the Burger Fuel Franchisor. Only 25% of that 40M revenue would be available to distribute to public shareholders. After tax and costs less than 10M in profit is available as profit to minority shareholders.

Much has been made of the "brand strength" and the "loyalty" of Burger Fuels' customers but this is typical of niche players in the fast food industry. Once size and scale are increased, this loyalty often wanes as the company culture cant help but change as it grows.

An important understatement by BF management in announcing this IPO is the amount of competition that they face in this sector. New Zealand has some competition but in markets like Sydney, where they have one store, there are several many similar to BF. One also must remember, having success in a market like Sydney is no gaurantee that it is going to work further afield.

It appears that management want to grow this business quicker than they have been and one must ask why, if the business is that good, why they wouldnt get a bank or private equity crew on board to get a little larger, prove their concept has scalabilty, then come out of the closet for some public funds, for goodness sake they are still holding 75% of the company!!

The lesser disclosure requirements due to a listing on the NZAX ,coupled with the bulk of the company still being management owned, mean that human nature, as it is ,favours the dominant player in this scenario and that means the majority of the power and future gain, if any, will be in the hands of those at the top of the tree. Fine if you have full disclosure but here we dont.

The recent Blackstone IPO in the United States is a similar scenario to this one. Public participants hold a minority of shares and management will continue to run the company just like a private one. Both will only want to know you if they want more capital.

Like any investment, before you consider plunking down your hard earned dollars on this one, take a good long read of the Burger Fuel prospectus, then forget it and read the overwhelming negative comment being made about this IPO. If you are still interested after that and are prepared to take a huge risk, go ahead.

It is possible, if you really want to buy Burger Fuel shares, that the SP will adjust to below the IPO price of $1 once the hype of the IPO is over and the reality of the deal sets into the market.

Don't plunk down more than you can afford to lose.



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c Share Investor 2007

Burger Fuel IPO: Dont buy...yet.

The upcoming BurgerFuel Worldwide [BFW.NZ] IPO poses some interesting questions.

They are asking for 15M for a 25% of the company and value the whole shooting match at 60M. That is steep for a company with only 3M sales and a 250,000 loss.

20 outlets makes the unit sales an average of around $150,000 turnover a unit. Not good at all. You should be looking for at least $500,000 a unit for an outlet like that.

The 15M raised is going to be used on expansion and there is of course the possibility that the majority owners will want continuing cash inputs to keep growing.

I think at $1 a share you could pick up this puppy for less than that once we see continued losses mount.

There is alot of competition in this sector, in NZ and abroad, where BF intend to do business.

Having said that, the long-term future of the company could be worth a punt but I have reservations. I like companies to be making profits from day one and for expansion to be funded from profit.

I would avoid at this stage.

I wont be buying at the IPO, perhaps later.


See press release below

Burger Fuel looks for extra capital filling
NBR staff

Josef Roberts & Chris Mason

Fast-food franchise BurgerFuel is set to list on the NZAX and is looking to raise $15 million in capital.

The company is issuing 15 million shares at $1 each, with the option of purchasing additional shares at the same price in 18-months time.

The issue values the whole company at $60 million with public shareholders owning 26.7 per cent.

The remaining shares will held by staff, associate directors and the promoters of the offer, as well as the founder and managing director of the company Chris Mason and Executive Director, Josef Roberts.

Both Chris Mason and Josef Roberts have entered into stand-still agreements running for 12 months in respect of their shares.

The funds will be used to fund expansion into Australia, Europe and the US. At present, BurgerFuel has 19 outlets in New Zealand, and one in Sydney.

Prospectuses can be viewed at www.burgerfuel.com/shares

The company says it is taking an innovative and irreverent approach to capital raising, including a provision for 70,000 of its "VIB members" ("Very Important Burger Connoisseurs") to get the first chance to purchase shares.



Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

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Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
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Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
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Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
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Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
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Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
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Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free




c Share Investor 2007

Global Warning: Tax Iceberg Ahead

It is like sitting on the bow of the Titanic while watching it hit an iceberg. We know it is coming but we don't yet know how big the iceberg is.

Let me help you out dear reader.

If one thought the budget was a killer to business and the economy and it clearly is: increased compliance costs, contributions to employees' savings and the two headed monster the inflationary petrol tax-the 3c cut to business tax still puts business behind- then you have got another thing coming.

The biggest thing missing from the 2007 budget was an indication of looming carbon taxes and costs associated with Labour's lunacy over Kyoto and the global warming myth.

It wasn't even given the once over lightly, in fact it wasn't mentioned at all.

In what will be New Zealand business' biggest challenge in generations, global warming taxes, Cullen is playing fast and lose with our kiwi companies simply because they cannot plan with certainty of the future.

These costs loom large in board rooms around the country, only the NZX board room is relaxed because they look likely to benefit from implementing so-called "carbon trading."

The costs to business and the economy cannot be overstated. Businesses, and eventually individuals who emit carbon will be taxed on those emissions. How much we don't know but what we do know is that these taxes will flow down to the consumer and put a bite on the economy with such force that we may never recover.

Like the 2007 budget, the only winners from carbon taxes will be Governments and an army of bureaucrats who will administer the taxes from yet another acre of new Wellington office space.

The two business sectors with the most to lose will be tourism and agriculture, incidentally the 2 biggest earners of foreign exchange for New Zealand Inc. According to those with a green tinge to their blood, including Sir Richard Branson, airline travel is one of the biggest contributors to Global Warming, with the shipping sector and distance traveled by those ships to get goods to market from this part of the world 2 targets for the highest taxes and red tape due to the perception of their "global carbon footprint."

Already New Zealand's agriculture industry has been given a wake-up call over "food miles" and Tesco in Britain discouraging buying of NZ produce because of the distance it has come. Commentators such as Rod Oram are foisted on their own Global Warming crusades, when they on the one hand advocate for GW and carbon taxes(Oram buys carbon credits to off-set his "carbon footprint")but on the other hand moan when the likes of Tesco actually use the argument he advocates against him.

The tourism industry clearly faces a bleak future if these new taxes take a strangle-hold. The further away a destination, the higher the taxes will be on airfares, airlines and a whole host of industry related business. New Zealand is as far away as one can get from the bulk of the worlds population and it doesn't take Einstein to figure out who the biggest loser will be.

We must not confuse the valid issue of polluting our neighbourhood and planet with the Myth of Global Warming. There has been a turning point in the belief of man-made GW from former believers in the scientific world and the focus should now be to get back to reality and impetus on the real issues around us.

GW associated taxes will kill our already shaky economy and the irony is that the worlds biggest and real polluters will be the beneficiary of our Government's stupidity.


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c Share Investor 2007-2009