Share Investor's 2021 Stock Picks ;)

Normally i clear my mind and focus on next year.

This year, like 2020, i choose to go another way.

It has kind of run its course and ill tell you why if you be so kind to listen.

What is a stock pick but really an advert for yourself to pick whatever you want based on various methods.

I don't want to do that anymore, I see it as not helpful at all.

I would rather you pick the stock based on what you have learnt either through me or some other means - your "own" stock picks if you like.

I realize during this #covid19 period, it will be tricky to pick good long term winners.

BUT perhaps you can do the picking for once and i will listen - as i always do - intently.

I also got 6 of my 7 "might haves" right. The NZ dollar WILL weaken at some stage.

How will all my stocks do?

• CEN - Contact Energy Ltd
• FPH - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
• HLG - Hallensteins Glassons Ltd
• MFT - Mainfreight Ltd
• PEB - Pacific Edge Ltd
• RYM - Ryman Healthcare Ltd
• SKC - Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd

Well they did well this year. Pilling on about 30%. 

But don't get me wrong next year is a little bit more harder to predict - so i wont.

Except to say they are basically all over priced, due to there being little else for investors to pick over they are picking over what is already there for income.

But that's what you expect to see during this truly horrid period of Govt largesse. 

Next year we will see more of the same but a different year - 2021.

Addendum: I have to add 2 stocks to my portfolio. 2 stocks I have not owned before. Spark and Scales. Spark because they have that 5g thing which probably will take off this year and while you wait you will get paid over 5% pa. 

Scales because they have the package. Conservatively run www.scalescorporation.co.nz and on sale at the moment. AND there's rumours of Scales being the front runner for Villa Maria wines.

Love as always to Sophia & Jacks  💓

Join up at Share Investor

Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

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Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
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Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 Stock Picks

c Share Investor  2021

Tax

Tax 

1. a sum of money demanded by a government for its support or for specific facilities 
    or services, levied upon incomes, property, sales, etc.

2. a burdensome charge, obligation, duty, or demand.

Source: Dictionary.com

So you you see I have underlined one word in the definition of tax. It is money demanded by Govt.

I mention this because just yesterday the Govt. released figures showing New Zealand Inc had $3.7 Billion left over after costs (more taxes)were taken away from revenue (even more taxes) for the preceding year.

Now what you have is a struggle of ideas from 2 main camps. (as well as some others that have Contact Energy holders laughing) One; National, that would kinda be plain sailing - still overspending our tax. Two; Labour that would introduce a wealth of taxes, water, capital gains and a whole host of others just to pay for the extra spending they have promised.

What about us?

The demands, (there's that word again) that are placed upon the workers in this country increasingly get more and more each and every year. 

AND it has to stop.

From the individual who earns the minimum wage right up to those who pay the most tax and will pay more under Jacinda Adern.

We want our ***ken money back.

We earnt it. We should decide where it will go.

So when you go to vote in about 4 weeks time. Think about it.

Don't be so selfish and go after the party the promises you the most - they probably wont deliver - Especially if they are left of centre. 

Vote for somebody that will give as much of your money back as possible. 

It is after all your money.

Demand it.

c Share Investor 2017

       

Share Investor Bows out of the WHS

Well they are taking their bloody time about it. But finally The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] are selling their financial services unit.

They shouldn't have bought it in the first place.

Seeing they are doing this and it is going to take "4-5 weeks" the rest of what they need to do to stop their ship from sinking will probably take 2 -3 years. They simply don't have this luxury of time.

But they cant see this.

As a result I ditched my meagre holding of 100 shares for $2.28.

It was only meant as a means to cause trouble but I don't wanna do that anymore.

So I'm gone.

The Warehouse will be history as well, Foodstuffs have written down their shareholding to zero. I suspect the other major shareholders have as well.

You too?


The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Some Tips for the Warehouse for a "Recovery"
The Warehouse: Is it Time to Bow Out?
Share The Warehouse: What the Fuck is it Doing?
Share Investor Q & A: The Warehouse' Ian Morrice  
Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' Ian Morrice
Long Term View: The Warehouse Group Ltd
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
Long Term Play: The Warehouse Group
Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a second look
Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 
Download WHS company reports

Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $32.40 Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2017

Share Investor's top 12 Stockmarket/Business Awards for 2009

A list seems appropriate for the end of the year, everyone else is doing one so I might as well.

Here goes nothing.

CEO of 2009 - Russel Creedy from Restaurant Brands Ltd [RBD.NZ] For turning around the usually beleaguered fast food company by implementing better menus and service with a capital "S'.

Share price recovery - Restaurant Brands again for almost tripling their share price from a low of 62c to over NZ$1.60 in 12 months.

Management of the year - Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] As a whole the quality of management shone through as the logistics sector was particularly hard hit. Don Braid, Bruce Plested and the team they manage have negotiated their way through a bleak 2009.

Fraudsters of the year - Mark Hotchin and Eric Watson share this distinction. For going above and beyond the call of duty to fleece elderly investors of their life savings and walking away scot free. They should both be in prison.

Head in the sand award - Rod Oram and his ilk banging on about the fraud of Global Warming simply because they stand to make money by peddling this myth.

Stockmarket crusader award - Bruce Sheppard from the New Zealand Shareholders Association. When there is noise that needs to be made Brucie is there with his horned helmet ready to expose those that need to be seen in all their ingloriousness.

Worst performing major NZX stock/s - This would have to go to Nuplex [NPX.NZ] first and Fisher & Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZ] Nuplex destroyed millions of dollars of shareholder wealth by over extending themselves during the boom times and paying for it in 2009. Fisher & Paykel did the same but only stayed in the game because a capital rescue by the Chinese and their shareholders.

Sneaky IPO Prospectus award - Kathmandu Holdings [KMD.NZ] for hiding detail of their financial position in pro -forma accounts.

Wankers Award - ING and ANZ for duping clients out of hard earned cash after advised by bank tellers that investing in specific product being offered by ING that they were as safe as term deposits -turns out they were not!

Award for having no bark and no bite - The Securities Commission for failing to act in good time on fraudulent activity over finance company collapses and ongoing disclosure issues and insider trading of shares listed on the NZX.

Brand destruction Award - Cadbury for changing the recipe of their chocolate then vowing that customers wanted the change and would "get used to it" and after much pressure reversing the decision - lost sales to other chocolate producers.

Fire Sale of 2009 - Kirin bought the remaining part of Lion Nathan they didn't already own for a song - the "independent" report advised shareholders to sell but they could have gotten more.

From Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2009

Share Investor Portfolio: June 15 2009

The Share Investor Portfolio now contains 17 stocks listed on the NZSX. The bulk of the portfolio started back in 2002 and I have added to the bulk of it by using dividends and some cash.

Since the last update in May 22 approx NZ $7000 was added due to 3 capital raisings. (1 2 3)

Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU.NZ] has added 114 shares | Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] 431 shares | Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] 1915 shares.


The Share Investor Portfolio as at 15 June 2009

• Auckland International Airport [AIA] 3000
  
• ASB Capital NO. 2 Ltd [ASBPB] 10000
• Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR] 3000
• Fletcher Building Ltd [FBU] 1114
• Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd [FPH] 5000
• Freightways Ltd [FRE] 8631
• Goodman Fielder Ltd [GFF] 2000
  
• Halleinstein Glasson Ltd [HLG] 1000
• Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP] 1000
• Mainfreight Ltd [MFT] 3125
• Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI] 3000
• Postie Plus Ltd [PPG] 2535
  
• Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL] 5000
• Ryman Healthcare Ltd [RYM] 5000
• Sky City Entertainment [SKC] 36915
• Steel & Tube Holdings Ltd [STU] 400
• The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS] 8000

Share Investor Portfolio : May 22 2009

Related Share Investor Reading: Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Fletcher Building Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Freightways Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Kiwi Income Property Trust]
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]
Why did you buy that stock? [Briscoe Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Fisher & Paykel Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Pumpkin Patch Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse Group]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Forum

Related Amazon Reading


The Warren Buffett Portfolio: Mastering the Power of the Focus Investment Strategy by Robert G. Hagstrom
Buy new: $13.57 / Used from: $1.57
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2008,2009

Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] was one of my long term growth investments because I saw its potential for future growth to be exceptional but still some time off.

Pumpkin Patch and sell trendy kids clothing in 4 different markets and currently have over 200 stores.


Why did you buy that stock?

Why did you buy that stock? [Ryman Healthcare]
Why did you buy that stock? [Michael Hill International]
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight]
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
Why did you buy that stock? [Goodman Fielder]
Why did you buy that stock? [Auckland Airport]
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]


The brand recognition is very strong and customers are very loyal to that brand. This is one of the main reasons why I purchased shares in the company. That is, while many retailers of children's clothing sell nice clothes at reasonable prices Pumpkin Patch clothing sells at a premium because of its branding.

Pumpkin Patch designers have also enabled the brand to continually be reinforced by constantly releasing new clothing designs and therefore keeping that competitive edge in the markets they enter.

I wanted to purchase shares in the IPO a few years back but waited to see a few years of results before jumping in. Of course profit has slowed over the last 12 months or so, most retailers have suffered from a global slowdown but growth for the company over the last 4 years has been good and entry has been made into Britain and America since their listing.

The expansion management impressed me and those that run the company have been doing a fine job taking the company to the world. America has been a tough nut to crack so far but it seems the slow roll out of stores in Texas and California has been managed well if store level results are any indication.

So good management, as it should be always, is another overriding factor in my purchase decision. They do the selling of kids clothing better than any other retailer in the world that I have seen and this is where I see the growth.

One thing I haven't covered in much detail in any of this series before, with the exception of Mainfreight Ltd[MFT.NZ] I think, is company culture.

Like Mainfreight, company culture at Pumpkin Patch is brilliant, you can see it in the way you are treated when you walk into a store and that culture is bred from management down. If a business has a great company culture its employees are happier, and that leads to better sales and an increased bottom line-you cant go past that when looking at a reason to buy a company's shares.

Another small reason to purchase, my wife loves the clothing and we are trying for a baby and she can shop for Africa!

Now I have held Pumpkin for about 2 years and at an average purchase price of about NZ$3.70, so at a current market price of less than half that, it hasn't been good in the short term but I am a long term man so wouldn't be adverse to buying more should my dividend account have some money in it.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Pumpkin Patch Ltd move downmarket
Long Term View: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch's North American Downsizing a Prudent move
Digging at Pumpkin's Profit
Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Buyback shows Confidence in the Future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying
Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum

Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

From Fishpond.co.nz



Buy Bird on a Wire: The Inside Story from a Straight Talking CEO & more @ Fishpond.co.nz




c Share Investor 2008

Investors can learn from my stupidity

What was one of those pithy comments that your mum used to make to you when you were growing up?

One of my mum's favourites was "if you don't learn from your mistakes you are doomed to repeat them in the future". To be fair, mum's phraseology contained some four letter words and was knowhere as concise or fluent, but she just might have had something there.

When it comes to investing in shares, my mistakes have taught me not to go there again, even though on occasion I may have made the same boo boo twice, and I thought I might share a few of my investing nightmares with you dear readers, in the hope that you may take something from them, file them away and use them for future reference.

I started investing in shares in 1997, my first purchase being Restaurant Brands [RBD] , the New Zealand fast food operator, the price per share was $NZ 2.20 and I bought 1000 shares.

I purchased initially because I loved KFC and thought the shares were "cheap". I feel dumber than dumb just reading that back.

Little did I know, the company had been performing badly for a number of reasons and I neglected to go further than the glossy prospectus for impartial information.

I bought around 60000 shares up until late 2002 and sold them all at the end of that year for a small profit, around $2000.00-not a good investment.

Two other things I learn't from that sojourn into fast food, don't fall in love with a stock and don't be afraid to cut and run if you know you might have made a clanger in the first place.

The second lesson I learn't, and probably the most cutting for me, is that you shouldn't get greedy, follow the herd mentality and plunge oneself into something one doesn't understand (Warren Buffett would spank you for that).

On Jan 25 2000, I bought shares in a "tech" company called Strathmore. I had no idea what they did who they were and whether they were making a profit. I just bought because I thought I should be in that sector,everyone else was buying, shares were going up and would continue to do so(duh!) and once again the shares were cheap.

I outlayed NZ$3900, plus $24.95 brokerage, for 6500 shares and I think they may have gone up to about 65c at their high. 13 October 2000 I sold 5000 odd at 18c and left the rest in some other company Strathmore had morphed into and lost the rest latter.

The herd mentality struck me again big time on Sept 11 2001. I remember I was in such a frenzy to sell, I spent the morning of the 12th here in New Zealand selling my whole portfolio. After around 1 hour I sold everything! A NZ$80000.00 portfolio gone at crazy prices. I didn't lose alot , if anything at all but current and future gains were erased, as we know that the market rebounded soundly months after that ill fated day.

September11/12 was a turning point for me of sorts, although I was to repeat my stupidity less than a year latter, when markets were nervous about greedy corporate "Gordon Gekko" types fiddling company books, when I sold a very large holding in Sky City Entertainment[SKC] because I thought markets were going to spiral down to nothing. They didn't.

So it has taken me around 5 years to get over my emotional ties to "Mr Market" and in that time I have realised that:

1: One shouldn't listen and act on others advice unless your own research backs up your investment criteria.

2: Greed can be good but is also bad when not practiced without emotion.

3: markets go up and down for no particular reason.

4: do not follow the herd under any circumstances unless you are smart enough to be at the front of the herd and remove yourself from the herd before the bull gores you.

5: do the opposite to everyone else.

6: Don't read the "funny pages" (a great quote from Warren Buffett and a reference to analyst/ brokerage reports and economic forecasters.)

7: Don't listen to the latest tips from friends (cyber or real life)

8: When the taxi driver, dinner party guests and party invitees all start talking about stocks, commodities,real estate or carbon trading as the thing to invest in. Don't.

9: A low share price doesn't make a company cheap. Bad management does.

10: Do your own research until your nose bleeds.

11: A hunch can often be wrong and infrequently right.

12: "Mr Market" and his bad moods can be profited from, but only short term.

13: Don't listen to me, only I know what I am doing.


The five years from 2002 have been far more rewarding financially-even including the current "credit crises" and while I have probably made some small mistakes since, my investment strategy has been honed by the years previous to 2002 and I now approach my investments with a sensible long-term view of my portfolio.

The companies I have invested in, not stocks, are assets which fluctuate daily in price and I will not sell unless there is a very good reason to do so or unless that schizophrenic "Mr Market" offers me a price for my share of a company that I just cant resist.

History is littered with the corpses of those that kept their eyes and ears closed when they were regaled with others past mistakes, but often one can learn more from the stupidity of others than the experience they have within themselves.

I hope my reflective stupidity helps.

My mum, and yours, was right.


Disclosure: I own SKC shares


Related Share Investor reading

Research,research,research
Fear & Greed are lovely things
Share Investor Friday free for all: Edition 8 -first story "It was 20 years ago tomorrow"
New Zealand Stockmarket Bull run: 2011





Recommended Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
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c Share Investor 2008

Shameless plug for Share Investor (UPDATE 3)

*Just an additional note to this post yesterday. Deanne Nichols, who has a presence on Share Trader as "Skytower" and "Metro" is behind selling my name to the present "owner" of the Share Investor URL. I'm not sure if they are one and the same.

*There are also comments about this site and its content on the URL. None of it is true. I do not plagiarize work by others and pass it off as my own here and any posts written on other sites are merely to discuss investing.

If any work is by others, I acknowledge where it has come from.

Neither have I been making threats towards anyone.

This individual has been spamming me and my old Share Investor Forum since I banned him from it last August for posting "inappropriate content".

As for the other stuff, well, it's really quite dangerous to be calling me a sex offender and publishing my address and phone number.

Time for some shameless plugging.


You can now get my blog and forum at the following URLS

www.shareinvestor.biz - A range of financial type websites from Share Investor
Shareinvestorforum.com- Share Investor Forum
Shareinvestor.co.nz - Share Investor Forum
Shareinestor.nz - Share Investor Forum
Sharetrader.biz - Share Investor Forum
www.shareinvestorblog.com - Share Investor Blog
www.shareinvestornz.blogspot.com - Share Investor Blog 

I am working on a permanent forum, with some extra special tasty treats to compete with the only other financial forum in New Zealand,Share Trader/Sharechat, run by Phillip Mac Callister of Tarawera Publishing.

The site, will be found at www.shareinvestorforum.com. This is phpBB3 based, the latest in forum technology. We will have a dedicated server and intend to compete head to head with Mr Mac Callister, aggressively and fairly, to see what we can achieve..

Some of you may know that I have had problems securing the NZ Share Investor domain because Deanne Nichols, who calls himself "Metro" and "Skytower" at Share Trader, cyber squatted on it for a year.

Deano no longer holds the name and somehow it has found its way to a Brisbane squatter and something very peculiar is going on there. I am not presently related to that site.

The individual who has registered the domain is Lincon Peterson.

The name Share Investor and the logo above are registered trademarks and cannot be used by the Brisbane leach and I have since filed a dispute with the domain name disputes people.

If you are reading this Mr squatter, you have my intellectual property and I will see you in court if need be.

I don't give up, ever.

I wanted to put this lot on public record and hope you guys are not too bored with this running saga and will support my future endeavors.

Cheers, Darren

*Just a footnote, I finally got control of www.shareinvestor.co.nz in Jan 2010 after 3 years of trying.


Related Reading

Share Trader do dirty on Share Investor




c Share Investor 2008