Share Investor: SKC

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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Sky City: What Price if Sold Monday Morning?

With news on Friday that Sky City is rumoured to have interest from ozzie's Star City and a total of almost $45 million shares changing hands on the day - the vast proportion of it after the market closed - its seems a good reason the reassess my view on my portion of the business.

From the position I am in it seems just as CEO Nigel Morrison has got the casino on a good footing, Auckland is humming and all other businesses are doing well and all are likely to do much better for the foreseeable future.

The only backslides are the backflippers.

Thats is the two projects, the convention centre in Auckland and the expansion in Adelaide.

My only interest is the price someone should pay for my belief that one day Sky City would pay off (and further in the future) and that Morrisons skills as an accountant (dotting the Is and crossing the Ts) will continue to pay off if I choose to say NO.

Im not convinced someone can pay me what i'm getting now, 20% + PA, if I put my money elsewhere.

I think I would have to start again - depending on what price I could be offered.

I think the price would have to be significantly North of the $10 per share that Nigel said it could be back in 2009 and I don't see anyone offering any like that.

Ill just bide my time :)

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

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Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Sky City: Time to Show Your Hand - and Our Money.

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Monday, November 23, 2015

Share Investor's 2016 Stock Picks

I want to thank Halle Berry because without her this years picks would

have been more difficult. She helped be with a few stragglers.

Well I'm going to do something different for next years stock picks. I'm just going to pick what I have in my portfolio - minus the weedy ones - and add what I think will be some goers for next year.

So this list is going to be a lot shorter than usual.

Ill start my begging at Sky City Entertainment SKC

This will finally be the start of many a fine year for this company. Many of the rules to relax gaming will apply and they all do so BEFORE the casino is ready to go.

Watch this start to climb from this year.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH is another pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and will do again in 2016. Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are a shareholder.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2016.

Money has been spent on warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Brisbane, Melbourne, Los Angeles's and one other place I cant remember right now but trust me, they have shelled out the noodles, now they just have to bring them in.

Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2015, it will again in 2016.

Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.

Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 3-4 years ahead as far as capital returns go and there maybe something up CEO Dennis Barnes sleeves.

Lastly pick Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) dictionary) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.

Its a good stock.

Now for two of the ones I don't hold.

Ebos Group EBO, value in this stock AT MUCH LOWER levels. Like in the 7-8 dollars. Good management.

Infratil Ltd IFT, I've been meaning to chuck a few shekels at you but you cant go wrong with their assets and the way the company is run.

Finally, something I see as a contender for M & A activity next year. Trustpower Ltd TPW. That's the one Dennis has his eyes on.

Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to.

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices-they ALL have dips.

The Warehouse WHS excluded because its just about dead the rest of my stocks are headed for the hills in the next couple of years...they will have paid for themselves and start paying me pure profit.

See you next year.

Darren

P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom.

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Friday, January 30, 2015

Share Investors Portfolio Picks Updated

Well, its been a busy couple of months.

NZX up around 200 points and the portfolio up in all cases except for 3x.

I'll start with those 3 first.

That's Trademe, The Warehouse and Team Talk.

Trademe down about 25c, the Warehouse around the same and Team Talk down 60 cents due to a downgrade.

Auckland International Airport is up over 50 cents, Air NZ up over 40 cents, Contact Energy up over $1, Fisher & Paykel Health up 90 cents, Hallensteins Glassons up 20 cents, Mainfreight up just over $1, NZ Refining up over 60 cents , Heartland Bank up nearly 30 cents Sky City even and Xero just 20 cents below what it was Nov 20.

They range from Heartland up 30 per cent, to Sky City even stevens and everything else in between.

Easy to pick good ones in a market that is rising but hopefully you can see what I mean about brief profits.

Real money is to be made long term.

An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.

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Thursday, November 20, 2014

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks

Author at beginning of year.

I think I will pick stocks this year and give readers a chance to fill in the blanks yourselves.

Apart from the fact that the NZX 50 is up around 900 points to finish at 5530 today, you would have to say the index shows our market has been way overbought and is due for a correction, how much and when is a little harder to define.

That may also not happen, if America keeps on with its wacky ways.

With this in mind here we go.

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Quite high at the moment but long term readers will know I've picked this every year since I started this.

Give it a miss at these prices if you want to invest - it will get cheaper. But if your one of those short termers its worth grabbing. Will go north of $6.00.

Sky City Entertainment

This is the year I'm picking for this wonderful stock, it has almost paid for itself in 13 short/long years, divs.

I'm picking it to finally deliver in the last part of 2015. Momentum will see this stock in the high 5s.

The Warehouse Group

I'm picking this stock, because I have a hunch its dec statement to us, the public, will be a good one and its sales figures out in Jan will be more of the same. It is likely that a turn around has come.

Cross fingers.

Mainfreight Ltd

I picked this stock because of its ability to stick to its knitting, get the job done, and bring in the results.

Time after time.

2015 will be an outstanding year for the company.

Contact Energy

2015 will be a good year for Contact.

Although 2015 - 17 will be restrained in terms of demand, their supply will rewarded with historical lows in terms of cost of production.

Management have signalled either buy back, special div or higher divs for now and into the future.

Ryman Healthcare Ltd

This stock amazes me.

While it was languishing in the high 20s that's $1.20 during the financial crises of 2008 - 2011 it hardly rated a mention, I was buying it then (first disclosure).

It was making record profits then.

Now it and its sisters are making headlines once a week, how hot is the property market right now.

This will take off once the most recent profit result is known - this Friday 21 Nov.

Get it while you can.

Auckland Airport

This company is well on the road to earning the big bucks.

It wasn't long ago, 4 years ago, that it was making 100m, now it will do close to twice that.

Ain't going to have any competition, not while I'm or my daughters alive.

I see nothing but growth for this one, get on and fly.

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings

A brief one which I've traded 4x before that goes in cycles the way that it always has.

Management are aware things change - they have been in the clothing biz for over 100 years and know where it at, that is why I don't mind holding. They are a good company.

They are near the bottom once again and by most they appear to be making there way to the top again.

Heartland New Zealand

This one I picked last year @ 80 something cents.

I pick It again next year as it looks set to expand and grow revenue and profit.

Something tells me that this is a dark horse.

A Xero, in the making if you like, except this company makes a profit and has got a clear purpose.

Get it now for big future gains.

NZ Refining

NZ Refining is a cyclical stock and at present its in the low part of the cycle.

1.97 per share is cheap when one considers your buying 2.05 of NTA.

Get in while you can on good long term - 2 plus years - gain.

Trademe Group

If you can get this around $4.00 you could earn almost a buck a share next year.

It looks set to consolidate next reporting season, perhaps a we bit up and grow slightly during 2015.

Not a share I would own for a long time, has no future, but good to get in and out of on its way down to zero.

Team Talk

This one has been on my watchlist for years.

Its on the small-cap index.

Principally because of its dividend, which has been 2x 10c for long as I can remember but has recently come down to 7.5c x 2. The company say it will stay that way all of next year.

The share price has come down by more than the cost of the div making this a good long term bet to take off once it sees an improvement in bus.

Any improvement in the biz would see the div raised.

Air NZ

Just one last one to tempt the weak and perhaps make the very same strong if they hold onto this one to long.

If you can get this at 2.15 per share you should be good for the rest of 2015.

The running costs are going down and patronage is up.

Beautiful!

It will not last forever.

Warning

What not to buy!

At the time of writing this addition 19.12.14 11.30am the stock that I've got to mention is XRO. It is at $15.70 at time of writing and is set to make further slippages in 2015. It reached a high of over $45 and some and is many years away from making a profit - if at all. It has been 6.5 years on the NZX.

Stay away.

Conclusion

As I said in the brief intro I think the index looks a little shaky.

I see a brief upswing in the new year then a tapering off throughout the year.

But we are talking a new reality, markets aren't going down like they should do.

America is doing things with its dollar that we haven't seen before and suffering the consequences - the market is going up not down.

The economy is lulling itself into a false sense of security, its not letting out the bung, it just continues to stuff it with continued monetary expansion.

O.k, I'll leave it there.

Except to say, they - America - cannot let the bung out, to do so would jeopardize world markets.

* As an addendum, the stocks from Fisher and Paykel to Hallensteins are stocks in the share investors portfolio and are included because they are the bomb.

The rest are very worthy additions.

An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.

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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Sky City: What Price if Sold Monday Morning?

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Sky City: Time to Show Your Hand - and Our Money.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Share Investor's 2016 Stock Picks

Friday, January 30, 2015

Share Investors Portfolio Picks Updated

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks

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