Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] has been out with a profit downgrade this morning and this has seriously affected its share price, it has dropped by more than 9.5% or 15c at time of writing to be trading at $1.42.

There is an overall weakness in retailing stocks at present and just yesterday Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] came out with its own profit downgrade.

The Pumpkins profit levels have been up and down over the last 2-3 years after spending most of its listed life rising and the share price has reflected that.

Most recently it has taken hits from failed expansions into the UK and the USA but now its Australasian units have performed badly for the first time, indicating perhaps something more serious at play.

The company still lacks solid management but they have removed Greg Muir who cost the company millions through their failed expansion outlined above.

The company still has a core of loyal followers and a very strong brand and is well placed to ride out these tough times.

This is a good opportunity to buy on the way down.

I fear though there will be more bad news to come so be patient.


Disclosure: I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Price Alert

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Download PPL Company Reports

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c Share Investor 2011

Brokers 2011 Stock Picks

You may have read my sharemarket picks for 2011 but for some light reading over the holidays lets take a look at some of the "professionals" picks from brokers and the like.

Please keep in mind that just like my picks there maybe some financial interest involved in picking them, there usually is, but in my case I disclose whether I have a holding in any of the stocks that I have picked. It is not clear from the NZ Herald article from where these picks originate as to whether the brokers have holdings or not. One would assume they did but they could of course just be theoretical selections.

Brokers Picks for 2011

Craigs Investment Partners
* Auckland Airport
* Contact Energy
* Fletcher Building
* Westpac Banking Corporation
* Henderson TR Pacific
Hamilton Hindin Greene
* Pyne Gould Corporation
* Ryman Healthcare
* Sky City Entertainment
* Tower Corporation
* Westpac Banking Corporation
First NZ Capital
* Contact Energy
* Kathmandu
* Opus International Consultants
* Nuplex
* NZX
Goldman Sachs & Partners
* Infratil
* Kathmandu
* Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
* Mainfreight
* Sky Television Network
McDouall Stuart
* Diligent
* Fletcher Building
* Infratil
* Michael Hill
* Ryman Healthcare
Forsyth Barr
* Delegat's
* Infratil
* Guinness Peat Group
* Sky City Entertainment Group
* Pumpkin Patch
Macquarie
* Sky Television Network
* New Zealand Oil and Gas
* Kathmandu
* Restaurant Brands
* Skellerup
THE PAST YEAR'S PICKS
12 months to December 10, 2010
* Subsequent to cut off point for the competition Pike River Coal has gone into receivership and been suspended
First NZ Capital
* Nuplex NPX 47.4%
* Tower TWR 11.6%
* Restaurant Brands RBD 82.2%
* The Warehouse WHS 1.1%
* Opus International OIC 25.3%
* Total 33.5%
ASB Securities
* Sky TV SKT 9.6%
* F&P Healthcare FPH -0.7%
* Pumpkin Patch PPL -12.0%
* Methven MVN 8.1%
* Auckland Airport AIA 16.1%
* Total 4.2%
Goldman Sachs JBWere
* Mainfreight MFT 40.6%
* Methven MVN 8.1%
* Infratil IFT 21.4%
* F&P Healthcare FPH -0.7%
* Nuplex NPX 47.4%
* Total 23.4%
Craigs Investment Partners
* Ryman Healthcare RYM 11.0%
* F&P Healthcare FPH -0.7%
* Freightways FRE 4.5%
* SkyCity SKC 1.7%
* Templeton Emerging Markets TEM 20.9%
* Total 7.5%
Hamilton Hindin Greene
* Fletcher Building FBU 5.0%
* NZ Oil & Gas NZO -44.1%
* Pyne Gould Corp PGC -12.7%
* Rakon RAK 2.6%
* Tower TWR 11.6%
* Total -7.5%
Forsyth Barr
* Auckland Airport AIA 16.1%
* Contact Energy CEN 12.3%
* PGG Wrightson PGW -20.0%
* GPG GPG -3.5%
* Delegat's DGL -19.8%
* Total -3.0%
McDouall Stuart
* NZ Oil & Gas NZO -44.1%
* Pike River Coal* PRC -77.5%
* Ryman Healthcare RYM 11.0%
* Michael Hill Jeweller MHI 36.5%
* Diligent DIL 93.5%
* Total 3.9%

Disclosure : I own MFT, FPH, RYM, PPL, FBU, WHS, SKC, MHI, AIA, shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
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c Share Investor 2010 & 2011

Stock of the Day: The Warehouse Group Ltd

The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] share price has been hammered over the last 6 weeks. From a high of nearly $4.05 back in late November closing down today on low volume at $3.52.

The stock has been a victim of constant media attention on Christmas shopping figures and official retail sales releases over the last few weeks. Pumpkin Patch Group Ltd [PPL.NZX], Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] and other retailers have been similarly affected.

To be sure the WHS Christmas shopping fortunes for the first half of the 2011 financial year are very important to the bottomline but there is only anecdotal news at the moment that they are being hit hard.

For the share price to be hit by around 12% in six weeks seems a little overdone and I will be watching for further weakness for an opportunity to buy more shares for as little as possible.


Disclosure: I own WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

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c Share Investor 2010

Stock of the Week: Pumpkin Patch Ltd

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] shares have taken a dive over the last 2 weeks.

From $2.00 back on November 22 and off a 52 week high of $2.32 in mid April the share price closed at $1.71 yesterday. (see 2 month chart above) This is a substantial 15% fall.

The only significant news that could have impacted the share price is the resignation of Chairman Greg Muir and the sale of a 1% shareholding by Onepath on November 30. This partial sale of a round a 8% overall holding would have been made due to profit taking on a share price that has recovered substantially over the last 2 years. (see 2 year chart below)

The full year 2010 profit out late September was exceptionally good when the dire economy is taken into account but perhaps the uncertain outlook from management didn't fire the buyers of this stock.

Whatever explanation for the drop this provides a good opportunity for long term investors to put this stock on their watchlist for appraisal for their own portfolios.

Buy on further weakness if you already had this company in your sights.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Stock of the Week Series

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd
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Restaurant Brands
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Ryman Healthcare
Mainfreight Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Xero Ltd
Auckland International Airport
Sky City Entertainment Group
Burger Fuel Worldwide
Michael Hill International
Contact Energy Ltd
The Warehouse Group
Fisher & Paykel Appliances
Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd


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Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

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Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time - By Virginia Green




c Share Investor 2010

Share Investor Portfolio: Spring Stock Picks

I have been saving up my dividends from the Share Investor Portfolio over 2010 as I haven't yet found anything I am interested in buying. There is currently close to $16000 to spend and with Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZX] and Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZX] still to announce their 2011 half year results in late November this figure should reach well over 16K .

But what to spend it on or to spend it at all, that is the question.

Most stocks in the portfolio have now retraced back up to market value or past my buy levels but I have a few I am currently looking at to add to.

First on my list is Michael Hill International [MHI.NZX], it has been operating reasonably well as a business over the great recession but its share price has been marking time and hasn't taken off like other shares in my portfolio have.



Closing at 68 cents yesterday, it is trading at levels it was back in 2005 when its profit and growth prospects were much lower. I have a lower end 60c price to add to the current 10000 shares in the portfolio. I am tempted to use the whole dividend pool on this stock alone.

Second in the firing line is Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] It has had some hiccups due to the expansion of the company in North America and the UK but profit has remained over the last 2 years and its latest result shows an improvement and a promising long term.



Its share price though is trading well below where it was in 2005 and even though its share price has recovered over the last year or so it is now a yield stock at current price levels with a gross dividend of over 7%. It has the added benefit of good growth prospects as the economy recovers. I have a buy level between $1.70 and $1.80.

Third and last from the existing Share Investor Portfolio is Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd. [SKC.NZX] The company has been performing better than it ever has, with record profits and a much better balance sheet due to far lower debt.



While it is off its lows share price wise, it isn't by much and I cant fathom as to why this stock seems to be out of fashion. It is paying a dividend of well over 8% gross on these share price levels so it is a good buy for those sick of meager returns from term deposits.

I am greedy here considering its current share price, I am looking at a buy between $2.70 - $2.80.

My final pick is a stock from outside the Share Investor Portfolio but one I follow closely for a number of reasons. Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX].

CEN is a solid company that does business amongst a handful of electricity companies that operate like monopolies and I love monopolies as investments.



I think it is one of the better long-term buys at current share price levels of around $5.70. A price it was trading at in 2005.

It has the added benefit of a majority owner poised to make a takeover offer at any time.

I am looking at a buy in the $5.50 - $5.60 range.

Conclusion.

I don't have a time horizon for my buys and things could change if the market takes a dive - other stocks might become more attractive than the ones above.

I could in the end just leave the $16000 in the CMA account and wait for further opportunities as the market reacts to the poor global economy latter on down the line.

I think my picks though show how my portfolio will develop as I add stocks through dividends and this has been my intention from its inception in 2002.


*Note all charts are 5 year indicators chosen for uniform comparison.


Michael Hill International @ Share Investor

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Download MHI Company Reports


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Pumpkin Patch Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
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Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
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Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
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Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum

Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing


Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

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Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor

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Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum

Download SKC Company Reports


Contact Energy @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2010

VIDEO INTERVIEW: Pumpkin Patch CFO Matthew Washington

Source: TVNZ

An interview with Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] CFO Matthew Washington, after yesterday's 2010 Full Year Profit release.

Of particular interest is news that the company look to be opening 22 new stores over the coming year and a focus on a new brand, Charlie and Me, a stand alone store that will sell a products that Pumpkin Patch stores to not currently sell - i.e: cheaper children's clothing.

Matthew sounds just a touch bullish here. Wish I could share his enthusiasm on where retailing is going over the next year or two.

Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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c Share Investor 2010

Pumpkin Patch Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis.

To those at Lynfield College currently reading this today, you might want to check out the updated links below this post for more on PPL. You can also download PPL company reports for free from here.

The Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] Full Year 2010 Net profit after tax up 76% to $25.5 million. It compares to the 2009 Full Year Profit of $14.7 million.

The selling of 20 loss-making stores in the USA along with an improvement in operations there, in the United Kingdom and a relatively flat result in Australasia have contributed to the result.

Repayment of a large amount of debt has also been a key factor in bottomline profit.

The worrying factor is that revenues are down by 11% but some of that can be put down to the closure of the North American stores.

A disappointment to me is that head office costs have remained similar to last year - an effort could have been made to reduce costs during this recession. Likewise the higher dividend, this should have been retained for future growth.

Key Points

- Net profit after tax up 76% to $25.5m
- Net profit after tax (from continuing activities) up 38%
- Total revenue of $382.0m was down 11%
- Total dividend for the year up 27% to 9.50 cents per share
- Improved EBIT margins across all retail markets
- Launch of the new brand Charlie & Me
- Entry into 4 new Wholesale markets


Forecasts by management for 2011 have been understandably sketchy - few NZX listed companies are sure what 2011 will bring - but the indications from management assure shareholders that they are "well placed" if trading conditions improve.

I would imagine the struggle will continue in North America and the United Kingdom and there will be further negative impacts for the Australasian part of the business during 2011, depending on the impact of interest rates on the discretionary spending of Pumpkin Patch's target customer - the young middle-class family.


Disclosure I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Pumpkin Patch Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
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Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
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Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

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c Share Investor 2010

Mixed Retail Outlook

Recent announcements by retailers Briscoe Group Ltd [BGR.NZX] Kathmandu Holding Ltd [KMD.NZX] and Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX] has got me thinking about the fortunes or otherwise of the other retailers in the Share Investor Portfolio.

Briscoes had a mild upswing in sales for the last half year to 1 August 2010 but in the last quarter of that half sales were down on the same period in 2009. This clearly indicates that the economy is not well at all. Kathmandu over-promised in their IPO Prospectus and last week delivered under par sales revenue. They cited a poor overall retail environment for the gap between their promises and last weeks reality.

Hallenstein Glasson had a different story to tell however with a sizable lift in projected profit for 2010 when compared to the same period in 2009 and a reasonable lift in sales considering the current poor retail environment. This is of course off a reasonably poor 2009 profit but the company is showing promise in a time of closed consumer wallets by concentrating on all important margins, avoiding frequent sales and keeping down costs. All the things the aforementioned seem to be ignoring - with the exception of BGR on costs.

The Warehouse Group Ltd [WHS.NZX] I suspect is going to have disappointing results coming up in September and Postie Plus Group [PPG.NZX] is likely to similarly disappoint the market - nothing new there then.

With the exception of expenses incurred from thus far failed attempts by Michael Hill International [MHI.NZX] and Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX] to expand in North America I think those two companies will see some improvement.

Retail successes over the last year seem to be concentrated on the specialist retailers who have a loyal following of their strong brands rather than the larger broad based "department store" type operators. They seem to have been able to cuts costs in the lean times in a more expeditious manner than their bigger competitors and keeping costs down, while attracting higher margin custom in this recession is key to staying in business.

You simply cant make money by selling stuff too cheaply just to get rid off it.


Disc I own BGR, HLG, MHI, PPL, PPG & WHS shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Briscoe Group @ Share Investor

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Briscoe's Cash worth looking at
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Download BGR Company Reports

Discuss BGR @ Share Investor Forum - Register free

Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

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The History Of: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
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Download HLG Company Reports
Download HLG Company History


Kathmandu @ Share Investor

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Discuss Kathmandu @ Share Investor Forum
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Michael Hill International @ Share Investor

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Postie Plus Group @ Share Investor

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Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

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Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
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Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports


The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

Share Investor Q & A: Questions to The Warehouse' CEO Ian Morrice
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Share Investor Short: Warehouse Group yield worth a look
The Warehouse Group: 2010 Interim Profit Review
The Warehouse: Big Brands, Big Opportunities
Warehouse strike opportunity to buy
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Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on the Warehouse?
Stock of the Week: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse 2009 interim profit a key economic indicator
When will The Warehouse bidders make their move?
Long vs Short: The Warehouse Group
Warehouse bidders ready to lay money down
The Warehouse set to cut lose "extra" impediment
The Warehouse sale could hinge on "Extra" decision
The case for The Warehouse without a buyer
Foodstuffs take their foot off the gas
Woolworths seek leave to appeal to Supreme Court
Warehouse appeal decision imminent
Warehouse decision a loser for all
Warehouse Court of appeal decision in Commerce Commission's favour
MARKETWATCH: The Warehouse
The Warehouse takeover saga continues
Why did you buy that stock? [The Warehouse]
History of Warehouse takeover players suggest a long winding road
Court of Appeal delays Warehouse bid
The Warehouse set for turbulent 2008
The Warehouse Court of Appeal case lay in "Extras" hands
WHS Court of Appeal case could be dismissed next week
Commerce Commission impacts on the Warehouse bottom line
The Warehouse in play
Outcomes of Commerce Commission decision
The fight for control begins soon

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