Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Good opportunities exist for buying in current stockmarket

Everyday my portfolio takes another downwards trajectory. How about yours? Economic conditions in New Zealand and globally don't look good for the short to medium term.

There are more losses to hit markets in relation to the Sub Prime fallout, that initially revealed itself almost a year ago and the losses that have been crystalized in balance sheets around the world have had the consequent affect on credit markets, economic confidence and outlook. Future sub-prime losses will clearly continue this trend.

The added pressure of spiraling oil, food prices and every other good and service has left consumers pockets closed for business and those businesses are going to suffer as we all continue to prune costs.

Share prices have been reflecting this for more than six months but now we are set for more stockmarket revaluations as the economic gloom prepares to make itself at home.

Never fear though!

If like me you have been prepared for this you would have been squirreling away money while you could in anticipation of harder times then great. Some of our listed companies have hopefully been doing the same, unlike our present administration, and this is going to put you and them in good stead for a slow down.

It looks very likely that our stockmarket will be breaching the 3000 mark sometime this year and with that comes opportunity for buying.

The biggest opportunity for good wealth creation in the long term I would think would be US dollar sensitive stocks, all of which have been hammered over the last year because of the relative weakness of the US dollar.

It looks like the tide has turned for our dollar, with mutterings from Allan Bollard of interest rate cuts later in 2008 and the Fed talking up US interest rates.

Rakon[RAK.NZ], Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZ], Mainfreight Ltd[MFT.NZ], Sanford Ltd[SAN.NZ], Delegats Ltd[DLG.NZ], Pumpkin Patch Ltd[PPL.NZ] and Fletcher Building Ltd[FBU.NZ] will all benefit from the falling exchange rate while many of these companies are ready benefiting from the lower NZ/AU dollar cross, joined by the likes of Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd[SKC.NZ], Telecom NZ Ltd[TEL.NZ] and Michael Hill International[MHI.NZ] which have substantial operations in the West Island, Australia.

The biggest star that will benefit from this, which I conveniently hold, is Fisher and Paykel Health.

The company has profit sensitivity of approximately NZ$2.5 million, per one percentage point change in the value of the NZ dollar and as our exchange rate is off its recent high of .82c and is currently less than .76c then there is significant upside as the dollar retreats towards its historical levels of below 60c to the US dollar.

Its sales are also increasing strongly, so its upside in the medium to long term looks very good.

Apart from the opportunities related to a falling NZ currency there are also some very good companies ripe for bargain hunters flush with cash from better days and investors would be mad not to do some spending instead of getting those brokers and financial advisors wealthier by selling stocks and getting into gold, commodities, fixed interest, cash or some other over valued asset class.

Disc I own MFT, FPH, SKC, MHI, PPL, and FBU shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Related Share Investor Reading

"Mr Market" gets his groove on
A sensible approach to global market volatility
Global Market's dropping and your portfolio

From Fishpond.co.nz - Buy Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times

Toughen Up - Fishpond.co.nz



c Share Investor 2008