Rakon Ltd [RAK.NZ] used to be the darling of the market but has had a tough last couple of years.
After reaching a high of over $5.50 in 2007 and a low of not much over 60c in early 2009 the share price has marked ground since then.
Only after recent signs of expansion in the sector that the company operates has the stock taken off. In the last 2 weeks alone the stock has put on around 15%.
The economy and the business that Rakon operates in still hasn't recovered to a sustainable level and the share price could be moving prematurely.
Their Full Year profit to 31 March 2010 was an improvement on the previous year but still a far cry from its profit in earlier years.
Lock in profits if you are a short term investor and look for dips in share price if you are a Rakon follower and want some shares for your long term portfolio.
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c Share Investor 2010
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Chart of the Day: Rakon Ltd
Posted by Share Investor at 9:29 AM 0 comments
Labels: chart of the day, RAK, rakon
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Good opportunities exist for buying in current stockmarket
Everyday my portfolio takes another downwards trajectory. How about yours? Economic conditions in New Zealand and globally don't look good for the short to medium term.
There are more losses to hit markets in relation to the Sub Prime fallout, that initially revealed itself almost a year ago and the losses that have been crystalized in balance sheets around the world have had the consequent affect on credit markets, economic confidence and outlook. Future sub-prime losses will clearly continue this trend.
The added pressure of spiraling oil, food prices and every other good and service has left consumers pockets closed for business and those businesses are going to suffer as we all continue to prune costs.
Share prices have been reflecting this for more than six months but now we are set for more stockmarket revaluations as the economic gloom prepares to make itself at home.
Never fear though!
If like me you have been prepared for this you would have been squirreling away money while you could in anticipation of harder times then great. Some of our listed companies have hopefully been doing the same, unlike our present administration, and this is going to put you and them in good stead for a slow down.
It looks very likely that our stockmarket will be breaching the 3000 mark sometime this year and with that comes opportunity for buying.
The biggest opportunity for good wealth creation in the long term I would think would be US dollar sensitive stocks, all of which have been hammered over the last year because of the relative weakness of the US dollar.
It looks like the tide has turned for our dollar, with mutterings from Allan Bollard of interest rate cuts later in 2008 and the Fed talking up US interest rates.
Rakon[RAK.NZ], Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZ], Mainfreight Ltd[MFT.NZ], Sanford Ltd[SAN.NZ], Delegats Ltd[DLG.NZ], Pumpkin Patch Ltd[PPL.NZ] and Fletcher Building Ltd[FBU.NZ] will all benefit from the falling exchange rate while many of these companies are ready benefiting from the lower NZ/AU dollar cross, joined by the likes of Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd[SKC.NZ], Telecom NZ Ltd[TEL.NZ] and Michael Hill International[MHI.NZ] which have substantial operations in the West Island, Australia.
The biggest star that will benefit from this, which I conveniently hold, is Fisher and Paykel Health.
The company has profit sensitivity of approximately NZ$2.5 million, per one percentage point change in the value of the NZ dollar and as our exchange rate is off its recent high of .82c and is currently less than .76c then there is significant upside as the dollar retreats towards its historical levels of below 60c to the US dollar.
Its sales are also increasing strongly, so its upside in the medium to long term looks very good.
Apart from the opportunities related to a falling NZ currency there are also some very good companies ripe for bargain hunters flush with cash from better days and investors would be mad not to do some spending instead of getting those brokers and financial advisors wealthier by selling stocks and getting into gold, commodities, fixed interest, cash or some other over valued asset class.
Disc I own MFT, FPH, SKC, MHI, PPL, and FBU shares in the Share Investor Portfolio
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c Share Investor 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 8:33 PM 0 comments
Labels: credit crunch, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, fletcher building, mainfreight, Michael Hill, pumpkin patch, rakon, share investor portfolio, sky city, stock picks, sub prime, Telecom New Zealand
Monday, March 3, 2008
Monday Gossip: Carmel Fisher lands a big one
In the wake of the very successful Fisher Funds(MLN) Investment management company's well telegraphed losses from holdings in credit company, Credit Corp and an investment in the crumbling ABC learning centres and consequent share price drops for the company's investment vehicles. Carmel and Hugh Fisher have splashed out on this NZ$8 million plus cliff top house in an exclusive street in Takapuna, so it ain't all that bad.
Investors in Fisher Funds had done well up until recently but credit crunches and stifled lending has had a big impact on Fishers growth funds especially.
Pumpkin Patch Ltd(PPL) in which Fisher has a sizable stake in, is worth way less than half it was just several months ago, similarly Rakon(RAK), the chip manufacturer, and many of the company's holdings have a horrible story to tell.
In what could be a sign of the pear shaped nature of the investment business at the moment chief investment officer Warren Couillault left the company last week and quit his shareholding at the same time.
The final announcement of his departure was made after weeks of speculation as to why he was leaving and came after were told by Fisher management not to accept deals on Fisher Fund's behalf.
Now I don't want to poke the boney finger just for the hell of it but Couillault should take some of the blame for getting into some of the risky investments that he did.
"The currency is pretty hard to tread water against,'' Couillault said about results from Rakon a few weeks back. Investors have been aware of this for some time but Fisher's ploughed more money into the stock as it got "cheaper".
At head office though, just around the corner from their new house, management are playing a blame game of their own. Blaming everyone else but themselves for the poor performance from their investment picks. Pointing the finger at the currency and "market conditions" for their investment woes.
Now I previously picked this company as one of the best in the business, in terms of results by comparison to other fund managers, and the professional way the company was run. Laying the blame at anyone but yourself is a recipe for long term disaster when it comes to business and investing.
We are all subject to the current "market conditions" but Fisher Funds and their managers were instructed to invest allot of clients funds in "high growth" and smaller cap companies. Having said that, things will work themselves out in the long run but management need to take the short term flak.
These companies are riskier even in good times but the economic slowdown we are facing makes investing in them a far bigger risk. With that sort of strategy when the shite does hit the fan one can only blame oneself for making that choice.
Bad managers blame everyone but themselves, good managers take the rap and move on.
Carmel should well remember that when she looks out at Rangitoto tonight.
Share Investor Friday Free for all: Edition 8 - Scroll down to end for related story
c Share Investor 2008
Posted by Share Investor at 9:17 PM 0 comments
Labels: Carmel Fisher, fisher funds, marlin fund, pumpkin patch, rakon
Sunday, May 6, 2007
Business Mis-Management
The recent and distant past of company management and its track record in New Zealand leave a lot to be desired.
While the calibre of management in selected companies listed on the NZX is clearly very good: Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ], Pumpkin Patch, Michael Hill, Fletcher Building, Rakon among a shortlist, the great bulk of management is littered with far too many candidates for the top prize of mis-manager of the year.
On the negative side the list includes Feltex at the top followed by Restaurant Brands ,with Telecom, The Warehouse(previous Management)Tourism Holdings and Sky City all worth a mention.
The bottom rung seem to share some common traits. Basic bad decision making, at times it is part of the culture- Telecom, in Feltex Carpets case bad decision making was endemic and used to cover up problems, Restaurant Brands suffers from a culture of denial when it comes to decision making-witness the complete ignorance of store level service, Tourism Holdings simply couldn't make a decision as to what their problems were caused by and Sky City Ltd [SKC.NZX] has made a hastie decision to buy a cinema unit that drags down profit and is capital hungry for no return but they refuse to make the decision to let go and cut lose a bad business.
The Warehouse's woes were widely canvassed but they suffered from a man,Tindall, that rushed into a new business with too much confidence, ignoring basic differences in the shopping culture of 2 different countries.
Managers are paid to manage and that means, as much as possible, decisions being made at the right time and in the right direction as consistently as possible. When managers begin to garner a track record of bad decision making, it is time to look at the problem, fix it if possible or move that manager on if an easy fix isn't possible.
Shareholders need to have a means of making their opinions known to those who manage their investment in the company they have bought and apart from the likes of Bruce Sheppard from the Shareholders Association, the rest of us appear to be sheep when it comes to standing up for our vote on the board.
The buck stops with the person at the top rung of management but a clear stumbling block with our listed and private companies is the bottleneck of middle managers ,who often serve the purpose of mere relay people, of information from productive workers on the shop floor to those executives at the top. We could do with less of these people in our companies, in my humble opinion they can confuse the clear messages that must get through from upper management to shop floor and back in order for a company to function efficiently and competently.
Restaurant Brands suffers from this syndrome in spades. Store workers don't get to communicate clearly as to what is going on at store level directly to upper management, problems are filtered through a multifaceted layer of store, area and regional management before getting operating concerns to the top.
Of course RBD store managers often don't have the motivation to let upper management know if there are problems at store level anyway, lest they be in the gun themselves. This happens to a lesser extent in other New Zealand companies but is still clearly a problem. Telecom suffers badly from the same syndrome.
The solutions to our problems may lay in what Toyota calls the "Toyota Way" that is, where there is a free flow of reciprocal critical information between upper management and productive workers. In essence this means that a shop floor worker has access directly to upper management and vice versa.
Like a pyramid of cheerleaders whispering advice from the bottom of the pile to the top, by the time it gets there the message is often completely different from its original form. Remove the middle of the pyramid and it will collapse but remove middle management from the management pyramid and it will serve to make the company stronger.
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c Share Investor 2007
Posted by Share Investor at 1:51 PM 0 comments
Labels: FBU, fletcher building, mainfreight, MFT, PPL, pumpkin patch, RAK, rakon, SKC, sky city casino, TEL, telecom