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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Sky City: What Price if Sold Monday Morning?

With news on Friday that Sky City is rumoured to have interest from ozzie's Star City and a total of almost $45 million shares changing hands on the day - the vast proportion of it after the market closed - its seems a good reason the reassess my view on my portion of the business.

From the position I am in it seems just as CEO Nigel Morrison has got the casino on a good footing, Auckland is humming and all other businesses are doing well and all are likely to do much better for the foreseeable future.

The only backslides are the backflippers.

Thats is the two projects, the convention centre in Auckland and the expansion in Adelaide.

My only interest is the price someone should pay for my belief that one day Sky City would pay off (and further in the future) and that Morrisons skills as an accountant (dotting the Is and crossing the Ts) will continue to pay off if I choose to say NO.

Im not convinced someone can pay me what i'm getting now, 20% + PA, if I put my money elsewhere.

I think I would have to start again - depending on what price I could be offered.

I think the price would have to be significantly North of the $10 per share that Nigel said it could be back in 2009 and I don't see anyone offering any like that.

Ill just bide my time :)

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor

c Share Investor 2016

c Share Investor 2016

The Worst Customer Service I Have Ever Had: Jetstar

Image result for jetstar customer service nz

I posted the following on facebook on February 18.

I traveled to Auckland from Napier for the last 2 years 2 times a month via Air New Zealand until December to see my daughter.

I'm going back to Auckland for good in 2 weeks.

I wanted to give the incumbent some competition so bought 2 tickets in Feb for $118. Much cheaper than Air New Zealand.

BUT HERE IS THE WARNING. Do not under any circumstances buy tickets for any Jetstar flights. They will be late. In many cases, like below, not come at all.

Your not going to "like" this. I just got back to Napier after spending the night in Auckland at the International Terminal (got 2 x 8 food vouchers) because "we ran out of time and just decided not to go tonight, cause we ran out of time" (my emphasis).

I have to thank Hollie at the desk, there that she was so embarrassed she offered to PUT ME UP IN A HOTEL AT HER EXPENSE for the night - such a sweet thing to because if you know me i have had a stroke and 5 seizures and i "have" (i say this but it seems its past now) to have my meds twice a day) Hollie (i think it is Hollie) you a wonderful person,

We decided to get you all on the 3.00pm the following day (today) but get this there is a flight to Napier at 8.45am so i try to get on this i get asked to come back at 8.15am but find the plane is late, go figure, so the standbys that they usually have, they had empty seats on the plane, they don't have anymore. They have them there but it is there policy to cut you off.

To cut a long story short a wangled my way onto the plane after shouting at the top of my voice (i meant too but i simply shouldn't have to) I simply wanted to give the other guy a go (love competition)and was willing to forgive them the fact that i was one hour late GETTING TO Auckland and had a return ticket booked next week as well.

But guess what, i will never, fly Jetstar again.

Thanks to this, countless others will be thinking again.

You have been warned.

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c Share Investor 2016

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Critics and Wannabes

Chart forFisher & Paykel Healthcare Corp Ltd (FPH.NZ)

Just wanna counter the critics and wannabes, especially the ones you find on the internet.

Your criticism should be ignored.

If you know are doing the right thing for you, it doesn't matter who you have to answer for because the only person you have to satisfy.

Is you.

On that, ill take one instance is writing on this blog and on one particular instance on Fisher and Paykel Healthcare Ltd.

I had followed this stock for YEARS, not months and if you were to take my advice, freely of course because you don't have to take my advice, i'm just freely sharing it with you on these pages, you would have made at least 4 times your money and be in the position you are now with this company of more to come.

That's not including the 60 plus cents in divs.

Looking back i even included my advice AT THE PEAK OF MY CONFUSION AND STRIFE, IN THE MIDDLE OF A STROKE

Me:

At 1.91 today this puppy must be returning about 10%. Looks like another support level to me, if I had the money id be getting in again. Beware that this might jump down again again but also be aware that that this share traded at at 1.86 today. Depends what you want if you get it now you will return you well in the long term, if you think the traders (money) have had their fill get in now,if you don't bide your time.

An Anon Critic:

Come on, FPH is a dead end. Where its gona go and on what basis? Strong yield? How much are you expecting to gain, 10c a share?

So an answer to your critics.

Don't take what you read to heart, if you know you have made the right decision.

Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times by Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2016

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Air New Zealand: On the Way Down

Air New Zealand is probably a very good airline.

I can either not afford to fly with them (in New Zealand I have to) and when I can it is some sort of forced codeshare thingy.

Those of you who know this blog well know i'm not a big fan of airlines and I share my fear of investing in them with that famous billionaire Warren Buffett.

I fear the end of the line for Air New Zealand, soon.

What I am saying is the number of news stories, local and international, about airlines expanding into new territories is particularly worrying. GROWING airlines, growing seats, lowering fares, its the only business I know that people(investors)get excited about prices going down - you should be worried.

The Airline has been doing ok for a number of years but this year after oil prices hit the bottom (i'm picking in the mid to high teens) and start rising things will start to move the other way.

The staff labour costs, fees paid to airports, divs to the govt, cost of food, cost of computer systems and long flights proportionately cost more. There are in the air for longer and burn a shit load of fuel.
Passengers just pay for one ticket. Air New Zealand are flying longer flights - along with everyone.

Of course there's hedging. The person in charge of this I would say has the most important job in the airline. What he does now will ultimately affect what happens a few years down the road.

By all accounts Air NZ has a very good one/s.

Be very careful if you are a long term investor. I would avoid this stock at all costs.

If however you are in it for the short term then Bobs your uncle, go for it.

You probably know when to pick it.

AIR @ Share Investor

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Discuss this stock at Share Investor

c Share Investor 2016

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Welcome to Sharetrader Members!

I note the site Share Trader site has been down for over 24 hrs. Come on over

I seem to have some visitors from there reading this blog.

We have a history between us, I used to contribute as member to that aforementioned forum and was banned for having an opinion.

I have been banned for life so it seems, because I have been lurking here and there but eventually caught out.

Welcome to those of you that knew me on Sharetrader as Bongo and to those of you that don't thanks for reading this blog.

If however you would like to contribute to my Share Investor Forum, you are most welcome to sign up and let rip. I don't censor strong or contrary opinion to the website owner, nor am I bound by loyalty to advertisers or make you sign a disclosure that abdicates your right to the content you submit.

Sharetrader do!

I am independent and proud of it.

So welcome Sharetrader members, welcome to Share Investor.

You can get the forum at the following URLs:

www.shareinvestor.nz
www.shareinvestorforum.com
www.shareinvestor.co.nz
www.sharetrader.biz

c Share Investor 2010, 2016

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Murray & Co: Overachieving Kiwi-style

I had to hunt high and low but I found something.

This piece really has everything a little Fisher & Paykel holder really wants to know.

What he neglects to tell us is, has Mike Daniells passed all his business acumen on.

I would have to answer that by saying yes by looking at the figures, 29-800 million, in 26 years.

What is more important is, has he passed that "we are a company that is going to spend northwards of 70 million next year on R & D" and you would have to say yes again.

Lewis Gradon is still there as head of R & D and as long as he is I don't have one worry.

The biggest value creator in the history of the NZ sharemarket, Mike Daniell (CEO of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare) quietly handed in his resignation slip recently without any fanfare or great media interest.

Mike Daniell’s board at Fisher & Paykel blew his trumpet on the announcement of his forthcoming retirement but they really should have played a full reveille. This is the untold story of NZ finance, a company that grew from a prototype made with an Agee preserving jar after a physician at Auckland Hospital in the 1960s became concerned about the adverse effects of ventilating patients with dry air.

Consider the numbers. When Daniell took charge of the Healthcare division in March 1990 his predecessor was ruling off the accounts showing about $29m of sales and $4m of EBIT. When Daniell steps down in March next year

Photo: Dave O'Hare and 3280 Humidifier (1970)

Healthcare will report sales of over $800m and EBIT of >$200m.

Annual compound sales and EBIT growth of 14% and 16% respectively over 26 years; approximately $500m of shareholders funds turned into marketcap of $4 billion - that’s $3.5b of value creation, 99% of it on Daniell’s watch, the biggest such “market value added” on the NZ market.

If Healthcare had been a listed company the whole time it would have been a 100-bagger. As it was it saved its previous parent company, Fisher & Paykel Appliances, and has done well since listing despite currency headwinds.

How has the company achieved this? Five key aspects, all pointing to good strategy from the top:

A consistent team, in particular Lewis Gradon and Paul Shearer, who have respectively led the R&D and international sales teams over the same 26 year period.

The company persistently plugged away (through sponsoring numerous studies and direct marketing) at the seemingly boring hospital humidification market, gradually leaving less committed competitors in the dust.

It then segued into humidifying air used in “blowers” for sleep apnea in the home. The company quickly worked out that people would get sick of having separate blowing and humidification devices hogging their bedside table and introduced a combined unit before anyone else. This action led to a much bigger fast-growing market.

The company determined that value is in consumables and introduced (and importantly concentrated on) proprietary chambers and tubes to go with its hospital gear and masks to accompany sleep apnea devices.

It has invested in R&D to open up new sales areas, the latest of many is humidifying air pushed over body parts during surgery.

Daniell is an old-style NZ CEO, little ego, no twitter account, his one company generates export sales the equivalent of 60% of the vaunted NZ wine industry with about 1% of the fanfare. Thanks Mike.

	Project Management Essentials For Dummies, Australian and New Zealand Edition by Nick Graham Buy new: $9.74 / Used from: $8.96 Usually ships in 24 hours

Project Management Essentials For Dummies, Australian and New Zealand Edition by Nick Graham
Buy new: $9.74 / Used from: $8.96
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Murray & Co Share Investor 2016

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

The Warehouse: What the ***k is it doing?

Let me begin this piece with I no longer wish to be a shareholder in The Warehouse.

You have seen it before.

The Warehouse finally seems to have done the business, straightened things out and is now on the way to increased sales/revenue and therefore ever increasing profits.

It did this a few days ago when it showed 'promising signs after spending about 200 hundred million odd (this time) on this that and the other' - buying companies left/right/and centre. (the speech patterns are mine but the above takes up a good few years of this and I'm too tired to re-hash the same old stuff)

But is the Warehouse going to buy every retailer in the country in order to be 'Where Everyone Gets a Bargain?' (watch out Dick Smith)

No.

They have to get more people through their doors and the way to do that is through offering THE cheapest branded goods around.

That is it.

Leave the rest up to us.

If by the smallest of chances I'm wrong and this is just the beginning of a new era of the red sheds,

Good luck.

But, you have lost a loyal supporter.

The Warehouse Group @ Share Investor

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The fight for control begins soon

Discuss WHS @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
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	Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $32.40 Usually ships in 24 hours

Security Analysis: Sixth Edition, Foreword by Warren Buffett (Security Analysis Prior Editions) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $41.77 / Used from: $32.40
Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2016

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Some bedtime reading: Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis"

I am in the process of re-reading David Dodd and Benjamin Graham's 1934 bible on investing.

Security Analysis.

It deserves a re-read after a life changing event like a stroke and from what I have read so far it kind of reinforces the conclusions I came to before heading down its 725 pages.

This 725 page giant of a book was written at a time where the global economy was in a depression brought on by the over exuberant roaring 20s and the subsequent 1929 stockmarket crash.

This book was initially looked at when were going through what they call, 'The Great Recession' in 2008 - you fill in your year for the finish.

It has had several updates since its original edition and is often hard to come by in your local bookstore. A sixth edition was out in 2008, when I originally wrote this. I wanted to read the original book to get a feeling for the markets and general investment outlook of the time. Its relation to today's market conditions is still important to me.

From the Amazon preview of the first edition of Security Analysis:

The original words of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd--put to paper not long after the disastrous Stock Market Crash of 1929--still have the mesmerizing qualities of rigorous honesty and diligent scrutiny, the same riveting power of disciplined thought and determined logic that gave the work its first distinction and began its illustrious career.

In their preface to this book, Graham and Dodd write that they hope their work "will stand the test of the ever enigmatic future." There is no doubt that it has.

Now I have other books on my reading list but I want to tackle this one first, principally because it was the text that Warren Buffett based much of his investing style on and as my regular readers know I am a Warren Buffett nut.

I have already read Benjamin Graham's The Intelligent Investor but I felt I needed a more detailed analysis of his investment style and his and Dodd's Security Analysis tome fits that bill to a tee.

Many stockbrokers in the past have used Security Analysis to go back to in times of doubt, and given current market turmoil investors might be wise to start reading.

It is clear the majority of stockbrokers in the United States and in other global markets haven't even turned a page of this essential investment tool and I know that is more than the case in New Zealand stockbroker circles.

My local ASB Securities broker said what? when I asked him during a related conversation if he had even heard of the book! Even The Intelligent Investor was another language to him.

You can get a physical copy of the book from the Share Investor Bookstore or download it free here.

Related Reading

Share Investor Forum - Discuss this topic

c Share Investor 2008 & 2016

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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Sky City: What Price if Sold Monday Morning?

The Worst Customer Service I Have Ever Had: Jetstar

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Critics and Wannabes

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Air New Zealand: On the Way Down

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Welcome to Sharetrader Members!

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Murray & Co: Overachieving Kiwi-style

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

The Warehouse: What the ***k is it doing?

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Some bedtime reading: Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis"

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