Friday, September 11, 2009

Share Investor Interview: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison

Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] has had a very patchy last 7 years, and as a medium sized shareholder of the company I have obviously followed the fortunes, and mis-fortunes of a company that has; had huge financial write-offs due to overpaying for assets, flagging or stagnant profits, massive debts, a regulatory regime that has been deleterious to say the least and a former CEO in Evan Davies that has been over his head when it comes to operating a casino business in a sustainable and competent way.

Enter Nigel Morrison in March 2008, hired for his experience in casino "turn-arounds", most notably the Crown Casino by the Yarra River in Melbourne and he has had an impact almost immediately.

It is a positive impact to say the least.

Morrison first focused on cutting back costs from the bottom line then looked at ways to improve customer satisfaction and bring in more punters through the doors of its casinos and hotels.

This took a a mere 16 months to show a positive return to shareholders, with a large profit upgrade issued for the recently announced FY 2009 profit.

For the last year an almost obsessive pay down of company debt by Nigel will lead to lower interest costs over the next year and beyond, more interest by investors in the company's shares and a better return to shareholders in the long run, and after all isn't that what all investors want?

Morrison achieved this by issuing new capital to existing shareholders and new ones in a highly contentious capital raising some months back, but as shareholders all get dividends out of the business, we sometimes have to put our hands back in.

Sound capital management with a focus on customer service and unnecessary costs stripped out have been the key to Nigel's success so far.

But what of the next 12 months and longer?

How will the business go under his leadership and what new ideas does he have to take this company through the $1 billion revenue barrier and beyond.

With this in mind I submitted some questions to Nigel via email and he kindly offered to answer them. This is after he contacted me after something I wrote about company debt levels.




The Q & A

Share Investor (SI) With your FY 2009 result released last week of over $115 million, a 13% increase on last year’s net profit, how sustainable do you think this sort of result will be for FY 2010 and beyond?

Nigel Morrison (NM) We think it is sustainable and we will be aiming for double digit underlying NPAT growth again in 2010.

SI - What are your thoughts on the recession and recent (apparent) recovery - if you want to call it that - are and what effect that will have on the company's overall strategy?

NM -The recession did make it difficult to grow revenues, however we believe our underlying revenues have been good throughout the recession and some return to growth is expected as we come out of it.

SI - Has your time as SKC CEO been what you expected or has the restructuring of the company that you were hired for been more or less of a challenge?

NM - Looking back now, 2009 has been a very pleasing year for me as CEO. I assembled a very good management team and reinvested in the basics that will provide a very solid platform for growth going forward. There was a lot of work that had to be done to improve technology, our human resources and our property management systems.

SI - The SkyCity Cinema division has always been a challenge, to put it mildly. How do you see its fit within your gaming assets given its poor operating history and low to negative returns over a long period?

NM - As I’ve always said since my arrival at SKYCITY, I don’t believe that SKYCITY Cinemas is a core division of our Group. Our Cinemas team, led by Jane Hastings, has done a good job turning around this division in 2009 and we are looking for better performance again in 2010.

SI - You have a core of loyal customers in the Auckland casino that keep coming back. Is that reflected in your other casinos and what are you doing to retain these loyal customers long-term while attracting the new ones that you have already and those that you plan to attract in the future?

NM - As a casino and being a major entertainment destination in all of the cities in which we operate, it is important for us to continually reinvent our entertainment offering. This might include new products, new restaurants, new bars, new value propositions and exciting regular promotions. It is important that we continue to retain our loyal clientele (in Auckland and in our other properties) and all of our casino operations run loyalty membership clubs, but we are also aiming to continually attract new valued customers.

SI - Are the extra bars and food outlets at the Auckland site attracting new gamers and if so is that a strategy that you are or will use at your other casinos to grow revenue and profit?

NM - Casinos are destinations for entertainment. For us it is about providing holistic experiences whereby there is something for everybody from a quick meal to fine dining or from a glass of Champagne to a beer. We want all our properties to have aspirational bars and restaurants and we’ve certainly got that in Darwin. We are looking at further development plans in Auckland and Adelaide.

SI - With a new National Government and the possibility of a more relaxed gaming regime flowing from that, what do you think of any casino expansion in New Zealand, say a casino in Wellington and given the possibility of this what would SkyCity’s chances be in gaining a Wellington location given the company’s dominance in New Zealand ?

NM - I think it is unlikely that this Government would encourage casino expansion in New Zealand. There are currently six casino licenses in New Zealand, including two in Queenstown. I think there are merits to having a casino in Wellington and we would be keen to be a major contender if that scenario was to develop.

SI - In relation to the previous question, how would you respond to any new gaming competitor entering the New Zealand market?

NM - We would welcome competition. Auckland will always be our flagship property in NZ.

SI - You know the Australian gaming market well, what opportunities exist for SkyCity to expand its presence there beyond its existing casinos in Adelaide and Darwin?

NM - Our current focus is to continue to realise the potential of our existing licenses including those in Adelaide and Darwin. In particular, we believe that Adelaide has significant growth potential (if we can un-lock it) as we also do with Auckland. We will monitor opportunities as they unfold in Australia, but we are unlikely to be a catalyst for expansion but will rather continue to invest in our existing businesses.

SI - Are you surprised at the spectacular turnaround of fortunes at the Adelaide casino, what have been the main drivers behind this, is it sustainable and can shareholders expect the level of returns from this casino that are coming from your Auckland casino?

NM - Adelaide was coming off a very low base. By enhancing the table games offering, including a new baccarat room, and introducing rapid roulette and installing the latest technology offerings like shuffle machines and with a renewed focus on customer service we have been able to significantly enhance the earnings of Adelaide. Earnings now from Adelaide are sustainable but to generate significantly better returns from this operation, as we do in Auckland, we would have to significantly expand the Adelaide property.

SI - What are the biggest commercial threats to your businesses in terms of competition and is your reaction to this competition likely to be aggressive or reactive in nature?

NM - Our biggest challenge is to continue to reinvent ourselves on a monthly basis and maintain the attractiveness and levels of entertainment at our casinos for the thousands of people who visit us every day.

SI - Your concentration of debt retirement over the last year has been admirable. Given sufficient payback of debt over time and sustained profit levels would you look at buying additional gaming assets for expansion – given the right price – or would a capital return to shareholders be a more efficient and wise use of shareholder capital?

NM - We believe our existing gaming assets offer good potential for organic growth through focused investment (as opposed to acquisitive growth). Any projected capital investment is critiqued against a required hurdle rate of return. I’m sure if the time came when we could not maintain satisfactory rates of return we would then consider a return of capital to our shareholders or some other distribution.

SI - Who are some of your business mentors/heroes and why?

NM - The late Kerry Packer because he was tough, probing, highly articulate and had an uncanny sense of judgement. Lloyd Williams, Founder of Crown in Melbourne, because of his honed attention to detail, incredible persistence and never accepting “no” for an answer.

SI - Who is your favourite New Zealand business leader/s and why?

NM - Sir Ron Brierley, who was a hero of mine when I was a ‘wet behind the ears’ corporate adviser back in the 80s.

SI - In relation to the 2 previous questions, are there any particular books or periodicals that you have read that you would recommend to Share Investor readers?

NM - In short, no. I’ve come up through the school of hard knocks and have been very fortunate to work alongside some great inspirational leaders. I find it bemusing that analysts sometimes recommend “sell” at $2.60 and then shortly after “buy” at $3.30. My advice would be find an industry (and companies) you understand and stick to them.

SI - In my investing experience I have found the level of business leadership in New Zealand wanting – with a few very notable exceptions - when it comes to making good long-term decisions based on sound business skills, the basic understanding of running a business and accountability when it comes to making mistakes and this is often reflected in businesses hiring from an overseas talent pool. What are your views on how we can get good shareholder representation in the boardroom?

NM - SKYCITY has a very strong Board which numbers some very successful New Zealanders including Chris Moller, Brent Harman and Peter Cullinane, who all have strong international business backgrounds. Also, I’ve certainly found the counsel of Elmar Toime (former CEO of NZ Post) for example, who was acting CEO before me, and Sir Dryden Spring incredibly valuable.

SI - I have recently become a dad for the first time and am now aware of higher demands on my time. I am sure the life of a CEO is very busy. How have the demands of SkyCity impacted on your family and what skills as a dad have you used in your business life and where and how do you find the balance between home and work, is it just good time management?

NM - Unfortunately, if you want to be a CEO there are serious sacrifices to be made. Looking back, I probably have focused too much on my career and in balance that has probably cost me dearly. For me there still is not much balance it is mainly work. I have grown-up children now who are 18, 20 and 21 years and I’m very proud of all of them. They live in Melbourne and I try to get back to see them at least once a month. I do enjoy photography and bike riding and I hope to get fitter because of it.

SI - Any business has inherent risks and gaming businesses possibly more than others. How do you manage those risks in the normal business operating environment that changes due to economic cycles and other outside and inside influences?

NM - Casinos invariably have great systems in place. We track risks actively daily, hourly and analyse that data. We have strong security and surveillance systems and we set a tight limit on our gaming parameters though a rigorous application of probability theory. We have found that our core casino operations are relatively resilient through all economic cycles so our daily cash flows and related issues are somewhat different to other industries in a recessionary environment.

SI - What do you see as the strongest and weakest quality of your leadership style?

NM - Weakest – I can be quickly intolerant of poor performance and it’s readily apparent when I am not happy about how things are going. Strongest – developing a sound organisational structure incorporating an experienced and loyal management team together with a preparedness to make decisions.

SI - Do you like to gamble and if so what is your favourite game and are you allowed to have a flutter at your own institutions?

NM - No, we can’t bet in our own casinos. It wouldn’t look good if one of our employees won a jackpot. I do like to gamble, but in measured amounts. I enjoy playing roulette and the gaming machines. Im looking forward to the opening of our newest bar “Twentyone” on Thursday this week, where we have “free play” tables that even I’ll be able to play at! I have no doubt many of your readers will enjoy that bar and I look forward to seeing them there.

SI - Where do you see yourself and the business you run over the next five years?

NM - I’d like to think that when we look back on the next five years, we will have seriously maximised the potential of our existing casino licenses. Adelaide would be a significantly larger facility; we would own 100% of Christchurch; I’d like to see Auckland as a larger and more diverse property from what it is today……and I’d like to see a $10 share price……at which point I think we would be able to say we have delivered satisfactory shareholder returns……and then hopefully at that stage I’ll be on the verge of retirement.

Thank you for your time Nigel.



About Nigel Morrison - Supplied by Sky City

Nigel Morrison joined SKYCITY Entertainment Group as Chief Executive Officer in March 2008. Mr Morrison has over 18 years experience in the finance and gaming industry throughout Australia and most recently in Asia.

Prior to being appointed CEO of SKYCITY, Mr Morrison was the Group Chief Financial Officer of Galaxy Entertainment Group in Macau, a leading publicly-listed Hong Kong-based group operating and developing casinos in Macau. Before that he was Chief Executive of the Federal Group, Australia’s largest private gaming group and prior to this Chief Operating Officer of Crown Limited, (operator of Melbourne’s Crown Casino) where he played a key role in restructuring the business and increasing revenues to over A$1 billion.

Prior to embarking on a career in casinos in 1993, he was a Corporate Finance Partner with Ernst and Young, specialising in the gaming industry.Over the past year, Mr Morrison has concentrated on turning around the fortunes of SKYCITY. With a strong financial and analytical background along with proven leadership skills, he has made the necessary organisational and management changes and appointments to implement a new structure that is working well for the Group. The secret to success, he says, is having a strong management team in place, bringing people with you on the journey and making sure you have access to all the information needed to make successful decisions.Mr Morrison is a member of the SKYCITY board as Managing Director.


Disclosure: I own SKC shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

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Thursday, September 10, 2009

Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid

Due to the popularity of the Q & A this week with Nigel Morrison, CEO of Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] I have decided to make these things a semi regular thing at the Share Investor Blog.

One individual I have always wanted to put some questions to is Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] Managing Director Don Braid.

I have requested his time and he has kindly obliged to answer your questions.

So, now is the chance dear readers to put some questions to Don.

You can submit them at the Share Investor Forum here or email them to me here and I will submit the best ones to Don.

Disclosure: I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Sunday, September 6, 2009

Not so fast Davy Boy

Look at the result from Mighty River Power out this week, profit up by over 40% and retail customers up by over 30000 for the last year.

Contrast that with Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZ] FY 2009 profit release out in August. Profit down by more than 50% and retail customers lost, more than 40000.

Reason?

Well according to David Baldwin, CEO , it was "overconfidence" (see arrogance in the dictionary for possible explanation) that led to the spectacular drop in profit and associated loss of customers and reputation:

"There's a fair amount of reflection over what we've done in Contact and it has to be said hubris had been building up over several years."

The 45-year-old is urging his staff to re-adjust their thinking.

"If we assume that everything good that happens to us is all good luck then we won't carry that confidence [forward] and we'll start afresh." NZ Herald Sept 5 2009

Of course if you accept that arrogance is the reason for the slump in profit you would have to sheet the responsibility for that arrogant attitude down to the company leader/s, after all we know that company culture is fostered by its leadership right?

Well, apparently not. David was nice enough to share the responsibility for his muck up with his staff.

Weather plays an important part in company fortunes and boy oh boy meteorologically speaking David has had a bitch of a year with that.

Of course that is understandable, weather is crucial to running an electricity utility company and that is plain to the average Joe but I have rarely seen David blame the weather when it is in his company's favour, it seems to be down to his good management. Boy David has some great connections there - as opposed to the 40000 connection lost over the last 12 months.

Many of you reading this will be thinking, what is your problem Mr Rickard, any company can have a bad year?

Very true and there can be many reasons for a bad year, some of them out of leaderships hands but these reasons are universally known and should be accounted for when running a business.

The big problem that I have though with Origin Energy Ltd [ORG.ASX] appointed David Baldwin is that he and his board of directors were almost single-handedly responsible for Contact's bad year.

They raised electricity prices (probably validly) at a time when they doubled directors fees while in the same week having an expensive lunch at a posh restaurant on the shareholder tit. The shite then hit the fan and they waved bye bye to more than 40000 customers and what they had left of their reputation.

Very few individuals will put their hands up and criticise such a monumental stuff up and put the blame on where it lies, with David.

The piece that I quoted from in the NZ Herald was so soft soap I have to rub myself down (control your excitement) again with dettol just to feel clean again.

The fact that David and his board are still employed after their stuff up is hard enough to stomach but his PR exercise of apportioning blame to everyone else rather than solely on himself is a business slight of hand often used in New Zealand to bury ones mistakes as time passes and it should not be accepted by Contact Energy shareholders.

David, the board, his executives and the puppet masters at Origin Energy should be ashamed, but it is clear that they are not and that is the cutting part.


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Friday, September 4, 2009

Woolworths supermarket consolidation an indicator of a move on The Warehouse?

Just to get my mind off problems related to our 3 week old baby girl stranded in Bangkok I thought I would have a go at discussing The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] and its possible connection to the strong rumour over the weekend that Progressive, owner and operator of Foodtown, Countdown and Woolworths supermarkets is going to consolidate their 3 brands into their "low-cost" brand Countdown.

Apart from the fact that I don't think it is a clever idea to ditch two great brands I think this process could be significant in the ongoing battle between Foodstuffs and Woolworths Ltd [WOW.AU] - owner of progressive - for control over the Warehouse.

I will tell you why I think this.

In trying to make things less confusing for consumers, by consolidating brands and possibly saving money on admin and other business costs, Woolworth's Oz could be ready to make their play for the red sheds.

With one supermarket brand instead of three, that leaves room for another brand, like a general merchant such as the Warehouse to fill the brand void.

It is a little bit of a leap in thought I know but it makes alot of sense from a brand and business point of view.

There have been some interesting moves by Wesfarmers Ltd [WES.ASX] in OZ lately - Woolworths Oz main competitor - they are the owner of Coles supermarkets and other brands and they are consolidating their food offers to the cheaper end of town as well.

This consolidation towards the bargain end of retailing is a global phenomenon currently, as businesses react to the economic downturn. As The Warehouse is the largest non grocery retailer in New Zealand and consistently its cheapest, as such it would be a perfect fit for Woolworth's Oz bargain priced Countdown food brand.

There are also a number of Westfield Holdings Ltd [WSF.ASX] mall sites in the country with both a Foodtown and a Countdown and presumably there would be a space left empty in some towns for a different store to take its place.

Two distinct brands covering a massive product reach under one company.

Makes sense to me.

Please keep in mind I am a WHS shareholder.

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c Share Investor 2009

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Michael Hill International: 2009 full year profit commentary

The 2009 full year profit for Micheal Hill International [MHI.NZ] out yesterday was ugly, real ugly.

Summary of Key Points

- Operating revenue of $411.999m up 9.4%
- Same store sales 0.8% up on same period last year
- EBIT of $26.193m down 38% on last year
- Restructure of group in December 2008 resulting in a deferred tax credit of $52.942m
- Restructure consultancy costs of $1.226m expensed in the period
- US acquisition costs of $1.569m incurred in the period
- US segment loss of $5.292m for the period
- Net profit before tax of $20.149m down 46.3% on last year
- Net profit after tax of $69.533m (includes the deferred tax credit of $52.942m)
- Net debt reduced from $64.234m to $36.958m
- Operating cash flow of $47.643m for the period ($7.763m in 2008)
- 30 new stores opened during the twelve months, including 17 in the US, and 1 closed in Australia
- Total of 239 stores open at 30 June 2009
- Final dividend of 1.5 cents per share (no imputation credits attached)
- Total dividend for the year of 2.5 cents down from 3.2 cents in 2008


First the ugly stuff:

Ordinary profit after tax from operations was down by 46% on revenue up by over 9%.

One of the key reasons for this drop in profit was the purchase last year of a chain of bankrupt US jewelry stores that has so far cost MHI nearly NZ$7 million over the last 9 months. A small part of that cost was a one-off purchasing fee related to the acquisition, the rest an operating loss.

Management have indicated that more shareholder money will be spent refurbishing a handful of these US stores and as the retail environment in the US isn't going to recover any time soon it is likely the company will be in for substantial losses for the nest 12 months on US operations.

Michael Hill has said himself that the timing of the US purchase was a mistake (listen to Michael Hill interview - You need to register first) but as he has also said he has always wanted a foothold there, he has it now and holds a long-term view on its future success, as do I.

Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZ] has also had recent difficulties with its US operations, incurring significant losses, so this is a very tough market, especially in the current economic conditions.

Michael Hill's Canadian stores have also dropped back into a small loss after being in the black last year.

New Zealand operations were down significantly, and all indications from the man on the street (my good self scoping foot traffic whenever I go past a MH store) are that things are not looking any better as we enter the new financial year.

The not so ugly:

Australian Michael Hill stores were immune from the retail downturn with both an increase in revenue and before tax profit. It is important to note though that Australia has yet to have an official recession, with economic indicators there still looking positive, so that is one explanation for its 2009 success.

Many NZX listed companies have managed their capital well during the credit squeeze and Micheal Hill has been exceptional in this case. They have nearly halved company debt to just over $35 million over the last year, without the use of any capital raising. A move to be admired by shareholders and other CEOs with less frugal spending habits.

The 2009 year has been one of the worst years in business for MHI over the last generation. Most of the indicators have been bad and things do not look any more promising in the coming 12 months. However, Australia has been an exceptional standout.

MHI management don't make predictions for the future but they do stress things will be tough over the 2010 financial year (well duh!) and its expansion into the USA is a long term play that will bear fruit in the future.

I picked up more MHI a few months ago for just this long term play.

9 .5 for effort, 6.5 for results.

Disclosure I own Michael Hill International shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


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c Share Investor 2009

Monday, August 24, 2009

Freightways Ltd: 2009 Full Year profit commentary

OK, I am back to the wilderness of New Zealand from being ensconced in a hotel room and the back of taxi cabs in Bangkok for two weeks and the NZ stockmarket is smack in the middle of reporting season.

One company's results caught my fancy and I thought I would give you my thoughts on those results.

The full year profit to June 30 2009 that came out last week from Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] was a case of steady as she goes, at least at first glance

Revenue was up by 5% to NZ $340 million and net profit after tax up by 7% to just over $34 million. If you exclude the one-off $4 million profit on the sale and leaseback of a property then profit is down by over 12%. Not bad considering economic conditions but considering that revenue is up slightly it is clear that management have let business costs get out of control.

Having said that a large amount of that cost has been attributed to capital expenditure to allow for future growth and management say that this expense will achieve results in the coming year -10s of millions have been spent on many acquisitions over the last few years, which have been purchased with borrowed money.

Financing costs for a sizable company debt have also been considerable but a capital raising from earlier this year has been used to pay down some bank debt so this cost should be lessened for full year 2010.

Interesting that in comments about capital management, nothing was said about the sizable dividend being paid when profit was down. The company is borrowing heavily to fund this dividend and it should have been cut by more than it has. Other companies have done this during 2009 and for Freightway's management not to address this is very poor to say the least.

The courier businesses have been hit the hardest, while the company's purchase of document management businesses over the last several years seems to be paying off as these are achieving growth even when other parts of the the company have slowed.

Naturally management are cagey about company prospects for the coming year given economic uncertainty but I would have to say even if business operations and therefore revenue remain stagnant, the fact that a multitude of costs have been ameliorated in the current year will mean next years full year profit after tax should be substantially better than full year 2009.

The only worry and out clause about that statement is that management have flagged looking at buying businesses this year more than a few times and unless any prospective business is the "bargain of the century" and a great business to boot then such purchases would be folly given the still high company debt and issues surrounding the health of the global economy.

Overall, the full year 2009 result has been unexciting if not a little boring and disappointing from a shareholders point of view because opportunities to pay down more debt have been lost and the hiding of the fact that ordinary profit was actually down a reasonable amount, rather than the headline of a profit up 7% was disappointing management let down.

6.5 out of ten.

Disclosure: I own FRE shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


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Monday, August 17, 2009

Sky City Entertainment 2009 FY Profit Preamble

With Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] reporting its FY 2009 profit this coming Wednesday 19 August, investors are not going to get any surprises.

The dividend ratio has been cut, debt has been paid back and profit is well up on last year.

On July 21 the market was updated with a profit up roughly 15% to around the NZ$116 million mark and since then shares have climbed to as high as $3.45 from about $2.80 before the upgrade. This is in a market where all shares are basically up.

What we need to know is how Nigel Morrison is going to go managing the company in the following 12 months and beyond.

In a sneak preview of an interview coming out in late August early September with Nigel I indicate the importance of this in my preamble:


Sound capital management with a focus on customer service and unnecessary costs stripped out have been the key to Nigel's success so far.

But what of the next 12 months and longer?

How will the business go under his leadership and what new ideas does he have to take this company through the $1 billion revenue barrier and beyond?

Morrison has done well but a further test of his strong management so far will come as Sky City emerges over the next year or so.

Shareholders and the market must see how Nigel will accomplish this and he should indicate the key ways he will achieve this, without revealing competitive secrets of course.

I look forward to Wednesday.


Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


Discuss this stock @ Share Investor Forum

Related Links

Put some questions to Nigel Morrison for the Interview.

You can submit them at the Share Investor Forum here or email them to me here and I will submit the best ones to Nigel.


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c Share Investor 2009

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Letters from Bangkok: Business is Still Hot

Greetings from Bangkok, I am back here in this very busy city to do a bit of personal stuff and look at the way Thais do business as well.

I have to say from what I have seen so far, the global economic slowdown has yet to dampen the Thai's natural entrepreneurial spirit. Having said that there is political debate over a very large so-called "stimulus" package - you would have thought the Thais would have learnt from the failure of every country's respective bailouts that have thus far pumped trillions of borrowed money into failing economies.

Everything is constantly pumping and everywhere one looks, even in areas of abject poverty, people are selling things; whether it be rice, tyres, cars, rags or tummy tucks.

Bangkok really is a paradise for a healthy capitalist like myself!

The Thai Stock Exchange Index closed at 644.2 this last Friday, according to the Bangkok Post , up more than 50% over the last 6 months alone, and one could expect, like other world indexes, including our own NZX, this kind of market over-exuberance is not a sustainable one given the fragile nature of any perceived global economic recovery.

I am going to visit the heart of bureaucracy tomorrow, Embassy row (the Kiwi Embassy and red tape machine on the 15th floor of a very flash downtown building) in downtown Bangkok and plan on taking a look at the operation of their stockmarket as well.


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c Share Investor 2009

Friday, August 7, 2009

Beware of "Black October"

A recent market update by Kingfish Ltd [KFL.NZ] the listed portfolio management vehicle, got me thinking.

In this document they wax lyrical about how well share prices for the companies they hold have done well over the last quarter and they are right, they have done well.

Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] Mainfrieght Ltd [MFT.NZ] Sky City Entertainment Group[SKC.NZ] and many others have stacked value on their share prices.

Sky City alone has gained over 40% since its recent $2.51 lows.

Kingfish have all these companies in their portfolio bar Sky City. I own them all in the Share Investor Portfolio.

But rather than reason to get excited if you are an investor with a shorter term horizon you are likely to get a bit of a shock in the back pocket, if stockmarket history is anything to go by.

The month of October is notoriously bad for global markets, the 1929 crash happened in October and so did the 1987 crash - the 2008 crash likewise. Even if you discount those three historical events October is just a bummer month for stocks, it is probably a psychological thing where historical events have self perpetuated into a down month.

Nevertheless it does happen and that month could be the time to start buying again. My wallet is firmly closed, for now.

Take care of yourselves, be careful when deciding to buy and make some money why don't ya.

See you soon.

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c Share Investor 2009