Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4

Telecom NZ Ltd [TEL.NZX] shares have had an amazing run over the last month or so and yesterday closed up 16c or 6.8% to finish trading at $2.435 on news that they were to receive the bulk of the contract for the Governments high speed internet rollout. The share price has taken off from $1.95 in mid April, a rise of almost 27% on yesterdays close.

With a share price not reached since the end of 2010 the stock still looks like getting overcooked to me and investors wishing to take a punt on anything that may come out of the fibre network rollout may want to temper their excitement because any additional revenue coming from it is many years away.

For the majority of the last year shares have been trading below 2 bucks and this is on 4 pieces of news out a month ago ( 1, 2, 3, 4 ) mostly related to taxpayer funded broadband.

The market is excited by the prospects for Telecom that subsidised broadband might bring but the payback for investment by the taxpayer and by the company itself is uncertain especially given the low speeds the company indicate their new fibre might bring and the restrictions and frustrations that will bring for customers as they realise they will not be able to do even a fraction of the things their mates overseas have been able to do for a decade or more already and that future speeds for global internet speeds (sans NZ) will be hundreds of times faster than ours.

Telecom as a company will have to be split into 2 separate companies, each presumably with its own NZX listing. Investors clearly see more value in the company as two seperate entities and see windfall profits if the company splits.

Market watchers though are ignoring the bungles the company has mismanaged with the introduction of new services and technology in the past so I remain skeptical of share price increases based on the possibility that the fibre roll-out will bear some positive fruit.

Until then performance for the company is likely to be more along the lines of weakening revenue, smaller profits and cost cutting.

The share probably has some more northwards trajectory to go based on overseas investors taking the news in overnight and the speculation may well propel the share well above current levels, especially as the split of the company will see investors have shares in two rather than one listed company.

Nice for short to medium term investors but long termers may want to wait for actual results from business created by the "new" Telecom.

Share Price Alert Series

Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Telecom New Zealand Ltd
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first half profit review
Telecom New Zealand 2011 first quarter profit review
Telecom Chart: Lazarus Recovery on lower volume
Telecom maybe oversold
Telecom NZ Share Price has "Jumped the Shark"
I was Wrong... sort of
Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporate PR
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom
Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download TEL Company Reports
Discuss TEL at Share Investor Forum - Register free


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c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor's Total Returns: Auckland International Airport Ltd

I have written about returns for stocks on a general basis in the Long Term View series of posts and the Long VS Short series but in this series, Share Investor's Total Returns, I will be giving my actual returns for stocks in the Share Investor Portfolio for as long as I have held them.

The return calculation will include dividends earned along with qualifying tax credits and of course any capital increase in the share price. It will be a total return over the length of holding of the share expressed in overall dollar figures with an individual value per share of what the stock currently is held at.

The seventh stock in this particular series is a star of the portfolio and one that I have held for nearly 4.5 years, Auckland International Ltd [AIA.NZX]

The current holding of 5312 was kicked off by an initial purchase of 1000 in November 2006 plus 312 bought as part of a 2009 capital raising and the latest, 2000 purchased in April 2009 and a further 2000 in July 2009.

The stock cost a total of $9084.80. It has returned net dividends of $1053.99 and total tax credits of $480.88, with $94.00 in brokerage.

I am eligible for the full tax credit so if the gross dividend (net dividend plus tax credits)is added and brokerage taken off my full return over the total holding period of 4.5 years is $1440.87

The current capital value of the company in the Share Investor Portfolio as at 20 May 2011 is $10729.30. The capital gain therefore is $1738.50. This gives a total return on this share of $3179.37. This is a 34.5% return over 4.5 years or a 7.6% gain per annum.

I hold AIA therefore at a total cost of $5999.43 or $1.12 per share.


Disc: I own AIA shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Investor's Total Returns Series

Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Michael Hill International Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd




Queenstown Airport Buyout @ Share Investor

Auckland Airport CEO on Queenstown Airport Fracas
Queenstown Airport: Court Case looks set to Drag
Queenstown Airport: Loud Voices & Loyalty
Queenstown Airport: Air New Zealand's Crocodile Tears
Queenstown Airport: AIA purchase good Long-Term but will cost shareholders Short-Term

AIA @ Share Investor

Queenstown Airport: Queenstown Airport Update
Share Investor Q & A: Auckland Airport's Simon Moutter
Auckland Council look set for a Auckland Airport Takeover
Auckland City Council new AIA Policy Doc
Make me an offer I cant refuse: Auckland International Airport Ltd
Long Term View: Auckland International Airport
VIDEO - Simon Moutter on Australian Airport Purchase
Auckland Airport Capital Raising a fair call
Auckland International Airport lands Australian Ports
What Infratil sale of Auckland Airport stake means...
Is another Auckland Airport bid likely under a business friendly Government?
Latest Airport coverage
Cullen's move on Auckland Airport has far reaching effects
Cullen's move on AIA tax plan Anti-Business
AIA profit stays grounded
Softening opposition to CPPIB bid for AIA
Directors of AIA bribe brokers not to sell
What is Auckland Airport worth to you?
Second bite at AIA by CPPIB might just fly
AIA new directors must focus on shareholders
Auckland Airport merger deal nosedives
The Canadians have landed
AIA incentive scheme must fly out the window
Government market manipulation over AIA/DAE deal
DAE move on AIA: Will it fly?


Discuss this Stock @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
Download AIA Company Reports




c Share Investor 2011

Allan Hubbard Saga: Still Feral After All These Years

Allan Hubbard Saga: Does death mean the End?

Nothing much has happened in the long running and long winded Allan Hubbard Saga since the sixth Grant Thornton Report in March. Allan and his lawyers have stalled for time and got it and the serious Fraud Office has still yet to decide whether they will place fraud charges on the old bugger.

I have however received an interesting communication from Paul Carruthers, the former unofficial spokesman for the group supporting Hubbard while at the same time going to bat for those who lost money because of Allan. Not sure how he did justice to both causes considering he was acting on the behalf of both but that is just me thinking out loud again.

The communication from Mr Carruthers was blunt, threatening and to the point and while he has a penchant for doing this to people who disagree with him to the point they are now ignoring him I would just like to give him one more public appearance so those that are fooled by his mild mannered public persona are not taken in by his hollywood act.

What follows is Paul's email to me, unedited and mostly fabricated in content save that I have written about him and his group in the distant past in response to his public appearances and comments over Mr Hubbard:

from	Paul Carruthers *******@gmail.com
to		shareinvestornz@gmail.com
date		Wed, May 18, 2011 at 9:02 AM
subject		Cease and desist - final warning.
mailed-by		gmail.com
signed-by		gmail.com

Darren,

You have until Sunday to remove your comments about me from your "Allan Hubbard" and "Put Allan Hubbard Away" pages, as well as every article and comment you have written which contains any reference to me from your website.

While Allan's lawyers are preparing a case against you for the two Facebook pages mentioned above, I am only interested in the comments you have made about me contained within them.

Since you started your crusade against me, I have been saving copies of everything you do, and the list of evidence my lawyer is now in possession of amounts to 157 pages of information, demonstrating clearly that you have a psychotic, unhealthy and disturbing obsession with me.

I have witness statements verifying that you have stalked me on the internet and made various efforts to breach my privacy.

I have written testimony from a computer forensics expert, linking you to Facebook profiles and emails you have sent, which amount to harassment and invasion of my privacy.

My lawyer has just received a report I commissioned last week from a court-appointed clinical psychologist, who I contracted to do an assessment of the body of evidence we have collected about you, including the references you have made to me in your articles.

The report describes you as being mentally disturbed and a potential danger to society.

I agree with it's findings wholeheartedly.

If other people are willing to put up with your abuse, that is their problem, but I will not tolerate it.

With that in mind, the following will occur if all of the information I have asked you to remove from the internet is not completely removed by the end of this week.

1: The Police Complaint against you for harassment and the corresponding restraining order my lawyer is holding on to will be hand delivered to Auckland Police on Monday 23rd May 2011, and the restraining order will be obtained from the courts by Monday lunchtime and served on you by the Police.

2: My lawyer will courier the psychologists report, along with all 157 pages of PDF evidence showing your "work", along with a corresponding letter from my lawyer, to CYF. A robust application will be made to remove your child from your custody on the basis that you are a danger to the child and a danger to society.

3: An application will be made to the courts to have you detained in a psychiatric institution under the mental health act for threatening to cut my tongue out (PDF copies will be provided).

4: An application will be made to your internet service provider to suspend your account and remove your website from the internet, due to the abuse and threats you have issued through it.

5: A press statement declaring that these steps have been taken to protect me against you will be released to the media by 5pm Monday 23rd May 2011, after steps 1 to 4 are completed. Among the recipients of the press statement will be the specific women's magazines that ran the story of your surrogacy. They will be asked to comment on your progress.

Because I am a fair and reasonable man, I am giving you the opportunity to prevent all of this by removing the abuse you have posted about me from Facebook and from your website.

If you do no comply with my request - make no mistake about it - the steps outlined above will be taken and I will pursue the matter until you are detained or at least until you are required to defend your position in court.

All of the aforementioned evidence is now in my lawyers hands, and she is awaiting my further instructions. She already has written instructions to proceed as stated above, once I give the final word on Sunday night.

You can save both of us time, money, and stress by just removing any references you have made about me from the internet Darren.

If you do not do that within the time frame I have requested, life as you know it will change forever by Monday evening next week, believe me.

You have until Sunday to decide. No need to contact me - I will be monitoring it, and I will see if you remove it or not.

If it is still there (any of it) by Sunday evening - when we finally meet it will be in a court room, for the purposes of having your child removed from you for it's protection and for the purposes of having you committed.

If you think I am joking - do nothing and learn the hard way.

Paul Carruthers.


I will leave it for readers to decide what they think but I think Paul's comments really speak for themselves, don't you?


Allan Hubbard Saga

Full SFO Statement on SCF Fraud Investigation
Hubbard Letter to Simon Power
Download Grant Thornton Report 1
Download Grant Thornton Report 2
Download Grant Thornton Report 3
Download Grant Thornton Report 4
Download Grant Thornton Report 5
Download Grant Thornton Report 6



Allan Hubbard Saga: Does death mean the End?
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard to Face Fraud Charges
Allan Hubbard Saga: Sixth Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard looks set to cop a plea
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters Risk Legal Action
Allan Hubbard Saga: Mental Challenge
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard Defiant in 2011
Book Review: Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time, by Virginia Green
Allan Hubbard Saga: VIDEO - Hubbard Biographer Virginia Green on TVNZ's Breakfast
Book Extract - Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 3, The Final Cut
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 2
Allan Hubbard Saga: Paul Carruthers Goes Feral... Again
Allan Hubbard: The Biography
Allan Hubbard Saga: On Forged Signatures and Uncharitable Trusts
Allan Hubbard Saga: Evidence of Fraud now Clear
Allan Hubbard Saga: NBR VS the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: South Canterbury Finance to be investigated by the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Will He Walk?
Allan Hubbard Saga: No Longer Bothered by Botherway
Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters head to the exit door
Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
Allan Hubbard Supporters: Conflict of Interest
VW Veneer reveals BMW heart
VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
VIDEO: Sandy Maier - full news conference on SCF Receivership
Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
Allan Hubbard: Ignorant Supporters Blissfully Unaware
Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
Allan Hubbard: Full TV3 Interview - July 16 2010
Thornton Report 1: Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities
Bothered by Simon Botherway

c Share Investor 2011

Share Investor's Total Returns: Pumpkin Patch Ltd

I have written about returns for stocks on a general basis in the Long Term View series of posts and the Long VS Short series but in this series, Share Investor's Total Returns, I will be giving my actual returns for stocks in the Share Investor Portfolio for as long as I have held them.

The return calculation will include dividends earned along with qualifying tax credits and of course any capital increase in the share price. It will be a total return over the length of holding of the share expressed in overall dollar figures with an individual value per share of what the stock currently is held at.

The sixth stock in this particular series is a perennial straggler in the portfolio and one that I have held for nearly 5 years, Pumpkin Patch Ltd [PPL.NZX]

The current holding of 5000 shares was kicked off by an initial purchase of 1000 in August 2006 plus another 3 purchases, the latest being June 2008.

The stock cost a total of $13220.00. It has returned net dividends of $1384.64 and total tax credits of $659.12, with $120.00 in brokerage.

I am eligible for the full tax credit so if the gross dividend (net dividend plus tax credits)is added and brokerage taken off my full return over the total holding period of 5 years is $1923.76

The current capital value of the company in the Share Investor Portfolio as at 20 May 2011 is $5950.00. The capital loss therefore is $7390.00. This gives a total return on this share of a loss of $5466.24. This is a negative 41% return over 5 years or a 8.2% loss per annum.


Disc: I own PPL shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Investor's Total Returns Series

Michael Hill International Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd

Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Stock of the Week: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
VIDEO INTERVIEW: Pumpkin Patch CFO Matthew Washington
Pumpkin Patch Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Pumpkin Patch Ltd move downmarket
Long Term View: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch's North American Downsizing a Prudent move
Digging at Pumpkin's Profit
Long vs Short: Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Buyback shows Confidence in the Future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying
Why did you buy that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery
Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch vs Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills

Discuss PPL @ Share Investor Forum
Download PPL Company Reports

Buy Pumpkin Patch Clothing

New From Fishpond.co.nz

Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time - By Virginia Green




c Share Investor 2011