It never ceases to amaze me how truly stupid some people are.
I'm talking about those investors who continue to bag long-term investors like me who don't have instant spectacular profits and have a view of investing longer than the space between their brain and their finger poised on the sell key on their computer.
True, money can be made short term, I have done it myself, but real long-term returns come after investing for years, certainly longer than 5 but hopefully much longer.
This is also true of property, bank deposits and direct business owning investments.
These profits come from dividend returns and buying more of good companies you already own should their market prices dip from day to day.
It is impossible to compare the long vs short-term investing because, hello, the short term profit is apparent very quickly and you have to wait for the long!
Those nervous Nellie's who sell because a company has a bad year or think they can beat every other sucker who is after a fast buck are fooling themselves if they don't fully know what they are doing.
Making your online broker rich by constantly trading isn't going to make you wealthy either.
In my current portfolio of 12 stocks 3 of them are currently under some sort of merger or takeover process.
I mention this because I was advised by a gaggle of short-termers to dump stock in the very 3 stocks that could be bought because the stock prices of these companies were going down!
One mental defective who has badgered me over holding Sky City Entertainment (SKC) for some time and so much of it, emailed me again about a month or so ago and told me I was "overweight" with this stock. Well na, na, na, na, SKC is now being looked over by buyers.
The Warehouse(WHS) is looking like it is going to be bought by one of 3 possible buyers after a Commerce Commission hearing this month.
I was told to sell up and run for the hills when they had problems some years back.
WHS is now doing much better and should get a good price when sold, thank you very much.
Auckland International Airport (AIA) is also under the sellers hammer.
Being short-termers though they cant appreciate or lack the knowledge that one day someone else is going to be interested in what you have(unless it is actually a turkey of course) and to hold like I do opens one up to the possibilities of a buyer for your share of the business.
Holding long-term of course opens up the inevitability that your company will do well and reward you with increased dividends and a higher share price.
It is unlikely that those who were poking the borax at me and long termers like me will now be patting us on the back but now that some years have passed the returns are apparent and will only get better with time.
Sorry but I just had to gloat.
c Share Investor 2007
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Tortoise vs Hare: Missed opportunities of a short term view
Posted by Share Investor at 10:57 PM 1 comments
Labels: long term investing, short term investing, sky city entertainment takeover
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Burger Fuel slims down in value
A quick note to inform readers of the fortunes of the recently listed Gourmet burger maker, Burger Fuel(BFW)
Listed at NZ$1 a few months back the share price continues to climb, in a southerly direction today, to a new post float low of 60c.
No comment today by management that they will be giving away shares with every fat bastard burger meal but analysts have speculated that owners who bought in the float will be able to buy a fat bastard meal without getting change with their minimum purchase of 1000 shares should they redeem them at a store near them. A twist on Burger Fuel's IPO tag line "do you want shares with that?"
The offer would be tempting considering how delicious a fat bastard is but a share price recovery could be an appetizing reason to hold the bun and fries.
That recovery seems as likely to happen as OJ being indited for armed robbery though.
Sad to see this disaster continue to develop like a train wreck in slow motion but what is happening now is as obvious as Paris Hilton's dearth of intellectual banter.
I will keep you posted when the share price hits my target of sub 20c.
Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor
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Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary
Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
c Share Investor 2007
Posted by Share Investor at 11:04 PM 0 comments
Labels: BFW, Burger Fuel IPO
Friday, September 28, 2007
Share Investor's Friday Free for all: Edition 5
Spin the Wheel
The start of the week saw a possible buyer named as the purchaser of Sky City Entertainment (SKC) after a “mystery buyer” was announced as a bidder last Friday.
In July the NZX Discipline panel's annual report showed that two broking firms and their advisers paid sums of money to the NZX this year for breaches of stock exchange rules.
The brokers and advisors were not named and were fined to the tune of $161,000 and $80,000.
The largest settlement was for Rakon (RAK) shares bought for advisors rather than allocated clients.
Makes me wonder what one has to do in this town to get an appropriate punishment for breaching “serious matters” when brokers go astray.
Telecom Splits
Oldies not Goodies
Having taken a sizable stake in The Warehouse(WHS) last week, New Zealand’s largest listed general merchandise operator and also having a very small piece of Auckland Airport(AIA) I am left wondering when stacked next to each other , which stock is going to do the biz when and if buyers make offers that sellers cant refuse.
Buffett dines on Bear?
The benchmark NZSX-50 index fell 6.91 points to 4268.90, on turnover totaling a high turnover of NZ$212.7 million.
The company's shares hit a high of $5.41 before closing up 17c at $5.22, on turnover of 15.3 million shares. Other blue chips were mostly weaker, with Fletcher Building (FBU) down 17c at $12.69, Contact Energy (CEN) off 15c at $9.19, and Auckland Airport (AIA) down 3c at 313 .In the face of a continuing stronger New Zealand dollar, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) fell 4c to $3.30 and F&P Appliances (FPA) lost 1 cent to $3.56, while Sky TV (SKT) fell 14c as it buys it product in $US.
Telecom (TEL) was up 3c at $4.47, as investors mulled over the Government recommitment this week to split the company into three units.
Air New Zealand (AIR) raised 5c to $2.47, following positive operating numbers for last month, and with shareholders approving its fleet purchase. The stock is running away from fair value with investors ignoring the market volatility of the airline industry.
Other stocks on the rise were Tourism Holdings (THL) up 10c to $2.40, PGG Wrightson (PGG) up 3c at 193, Nuplex (NPX) up 8c at $7.34, and Sanford (SAN) 5c higher at $4.35.
On the downside were Infratil(IFT) down 7c at $2.97, Steel & Tube(STU) down 19c at $4.30, Port of Tauranga(POT) down 5c at $6.70, and Mainfreight (MFT) continues its recent slide down 10c at $6.70.
Disclosure: I own SKC, WHS, RYM, AIA shares
C Share Investor 2007
Posted by Share Investor at 8:47 PM 0 comments
Labels: abn amro craigs, Auckland Airport Merger, nzx market wrap, sky city entertainment takeover, The Warehouse
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Reality needs to Bite
In 2002 Air New Zealand Ltd [AIR.NZX] was at one of its lowest points in years, although like most airlines it had lost billions in the past, this time its predicament meant the New Zealand taxpayer bailed it out via the present Labour Government, to the tune of more than $NZ 1 Billion.
The alternative would have been the entire collapse of the airline, New Zealand's national carrier.
Since then it has done comparatively well, posting acceptable profits and attracting large shareholders.
Its profits since 2002 though have barely got close to the cool billion that the taxpayer forked out to rescue it and on opportunity cost alone has lost a minimum of $250 million on top of that.
Shareholders, taxpayers and voluntary ones alike, need to remember that the airline biz is an extremely fickle one. One that is littered with bankruptcy, failure and many broken dreams, especially in New Zealand.
Long-term, Air New Zealand, like every other airline that there ever has been, with a few notable exceptions, has never made any money.
Air New Zealand's advantage has always been its highly profitable domestic airline monopoly that has propped up its less competitive international division.
While in the past this domestic near monopoly and at present duopoly has had a handful of half serious challenges by competitor airlines that have all failed, the latest drive to compete against the large bully incumbent by Virgin Blue looks set to be the most serious challenge to the big Koru yet.
Virgin has large amounts cash to fund their push, larger than any other prospective airline has had in the past. Virgin has challenged the dominant incumbent airline in all the markets that it has entered. They are in New Zealand for the long haul and will make it hard for Air New Zealand in the most profitable part of their business.
Air New Zealand will fight back hard though but will risk a backlash by the Kiwi flying public when they lower their fares to match Virgin's low prices. Realizing that they have been gouged for generations could be a bitter pill for Kiwis to swallow.
Air New Zealand's small International division, while making acceptable profits by airline standards, is still struggling with meager returns on capital and would be losing money if the cash they were using to operate was borrowed(see taxpayer funded bailout)like most other airlines.
The current profit isn't likely to continue for much longer as the pressures of international and domestic competition start to bite. Being such a small airline Air New Zealand is already struggling hard to compete with the lower costs associated with being a larger player or a traditional low cost operator like Virgin or Virgin Blue.
Investors in airlines seem to get wrapped up in the perceived "glamour" of the airline biz while at the same time forgetting that rather than eagles soaring their investment is more likely to be a spruce goose or an albatross.
AIR @ Share Investor
Share Price Alert: Air New Zealand Ltd
Queenstown Aiport Case: Air New Zealand VS Auckland
Queenstown Airport: Loud Voices & Loyalty
Long Term View: Air New Zealand Ltd
John Palmer Tipples on the Shareholder
Mike Pero and Air New Zealand: Capitalism vs Socialism
Rob Fyfe's "Environmental Extremism"
Reality Needs to Bite
Air New Zealand wants another taxpayer bailout
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Download AIR Company Reports
From Fishpond.co.nz
Buy Every Bastard Says No - The 42 Below Story, by Geoff Ross & Justine Troy & more @ Fishpond.co.nz
c Share Investor 2007
Posted by Share Investor at 7:23 PM 2 comments
Labels: AIR, Air New Zealand, Virgin Blue