Share Investor's 2017 Stock Picks

She helped out last year and was kind enough to help out this year as well.

Well, this year has been a good one for stocks on the NZX. 

6324.26 vs 6824.00 as of today's date. The returns have been around 8%, to the overall investor, if you look at the overall index - that is without accounting for dividends.

I personally have got around a 30% return and that just keeps increasing as time marches on (and they will continue to increase) and I havent really bought much this year - because I don't have any cash - my lawyer currently gets that!

There have been many ups, the market in New Zealand was up to over 7400 in September and many downs, the index was down to 6174 in February.

Likewise the Dow Jones Index was up from 17,148.94 on 4th Jan 2016 to 19,216.24 on the 6th December.

Brexit and a whole host of other "its" have foisted their ugly head at us but regardless the world stays intact, we still make money and we always will. 

I will.

With that in mind I will make a start.

Let me start where I always start with my biggest holding, Sky City Entertainment SKC.

At the moment, it is a steaming buy. Especially at below four bucks. Any lower, and it could go lower, it is a steal. 

Big things are happening at Auckland Casino, Adelaide and these are all wrapped up for a long time yet - till 2048 in Auckland Casino's case.

There is talk surrounding a take over or merger with Sydney's Star City Casino but that is a rumour and I don't care, I don't want to sell.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH is a perennial pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and took a dive from $10.93 to end up $8.20 at time of writing. 2017 will be its year and you may be able to grab it sub 8 bucks. You just don't know. 

The German injunctions granted against FPH's German subsidiary have been lifted and this will transfer to the injunctions in the US Courts. 
 
Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are already a shareholder.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2017. 

This has been Mainfreights year, $15.36 on Jan 1 and $20.45 as I write this and a recently announced and increased record profit and a forward looking year looking positive in numbers - the only black spot is the US division. Time will take care of that.

That is why I have been a holder of this company for well over 10 years. I receive a 10% plus net return on this one.

Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2016, it will again in 2017.  It started the year at the high levels of $5.75 and trades this morning, 6th December, at $6.30 and traded as high as $7.75 as recently as September 1.

It could bust through 6 bucks in which case you should be in.

In fact and I will go off topic for a bit, the lower the stock you are interested in buying, have been following, done the research on etc, etc the more you should buy. 

I did this during the GFC and it has paid off handsomely - anyway.

Back to Auckland Airport. 

Its in transition right now - that is it is undergoing transformation - once this transformation is complete the port will be a stunner. Flash and new.

And it will begin again.

With all this building will the port become less profitable? No increasing profits are the rule and they have been for some time.

All those assets that they have, the land, the buildings are all central to the core that this will have lift off. 

Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.

This company is set to almost double in size within the next 5 years and their Melbourne sites are set to quintuple before 2020 and eventually get far bigger than little old New Zealand. 

Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 4-5 years ahead as far as capital returns go.

You just don't know when this stock is going to surprise you. With special div's and share buybacks this share has been a good one in the Share Investor Portfolio.

It will continue.

The Warehouse WHS is included this year as opposed to last year where I dropped it.

I still have long term doubts but with recent buying by one James Pascoe taking him up to about 20% I have to re - consider.

I would rather have a piece of this rather than not, so I am only picking this for some M and A action next year.

Do not pick this for the long term - its a loser. 

Lastly my pick is Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.

Its due for a market upgrade in about a weeks time, when they have their AGM in CHCH. 

Everything is looking good for a LARGE upgrade in profit.

Its a good stock.

Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to. 

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices - they ALL have dips.

AND - do your own research - lots of it. 

If your picks line up with mine good and if they don't that's also good because that is what makes a market. 

It makes things interesting as well.

Next year could be another one like we have already had  - some dips but mostly up - or it could - drop but be mostly down. Whatever it is it will provide opportunities for all of us to make money 

See you next year.

Darren

P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom and tell us WHY you picked them.


www.shareinvestorforum.com


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c Share Investor 2016, 2017

2016 Portfolio Picks Update

This is for the Anons out there and the rest of you.

Kia Kaha.

It's been a messy wee year, unfortunately like 2015 going way too fast and speeding up as I get older.

But on the financial front going just about right.

By the way sold down my WHS holding by 5000 shares (for a tiny loss, yes have had them for that long and they have paid a decent div.) and bought my full complement of SKC which is 3800.

This week also sold my Summerset Holdings  shares for a tidy $750 profit or just under 8%.

In my update to anon of my Portfolio Picks for 2016 I noted the following movements in stock prices and divs paid.

Tell me what you think.


Lets see how they are going as of 20 May 2016

Sky City Entertainment SKC 11 % plus a 10.5 cent div.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH 18.5 % plus a 9c div.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT 5.3% plus a 19c div.

Auckland Airport AIA 20.5% plus a 12c div.

Ryman Healthcare RYM  24% plus a 7c div.

Contact Energy CEN 9% plus a 13c div.

Hallensteins Glassons HLG, (18%) plus a 23 and 19c div.

Ebos Group EBO 9% plus a 28c div.

Infratil Ltd IFT 8% plus a 7c div.

Trustpower Ltd TPW 5.5% plus a 27c div.



Figs are rounded to the nearest full dollar.


To tell you the truth anyone could have made money in this market. Anybody, even real live brokers!!!!


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c Share Investor 2015, 2016

Market Musings and Other Things

Coming mid-way through the earnings period with about 3 months till the new reporting season kicks off there are 3 stocks in the Share Investor Portfolio that are worth a perusal because reporting for them kicks off on the 20th of this month with Ryman Healthcare RYM , Mainfreight MFT on the 26 th and Fisher & Paykel FPH on the 27 th.

Ryman is looking good for a slice of the retirement sector action, they started the listed sector, it is they continue to lead with units built, and of course they are by far the largest retirement sector group in New Zealand.

They could actually pull off a coup this May announce a share split. Something they did about 10 years ago. They needn't split in my humble opinion but there you go management seem to like that sort of thing.

If they don't split now they will do so in November.

Mainfreight could well transport some of Rymans tools of the trade like timber and concrete.

It is also finished at an all-time high of $16.77 on Friday, a barometer for the economy as a whole Mainfreights share price tends to reflect what is happening in the economy right now and right now the economy is hot.

All signs are pointing to a record profit, with a spread of global investments paying off, Mainfreight is ready to expand without spending anymore but guess what they are spending more and that is again going to lead to more expansion along the way.

Fisher & Paykel is a stock now that is ranked either one or two depending on what the market is doing on a day to day basis. At present it is ranked number two with Fletcher Building number one. This will of course all change over the next couple of years as the price of Fisher outpaces Fletchers with Fisher about $1.80 in 2012 and Fletcher's around $5.50 vs today's price of around $8.40 from memory.

Fishers is headed to a record profit this May and its share price will doubtless head up past the $10 mark and above and one wonders why the hell nobody has yet held out $ US10 billion or so to take this company within their fold.

Good.

These little 3 shares in my portfolio are among the best performing of the 9 that make up the Share Investor Portfolio.

I cant wait until the 20th.


P.S. Anyone who wants to train for the Auckland Marathon this October can! Train with me. If       you are interested and hopefully live in the Albany Auckland area. Give me a buzz @ shareinvestornz@gmail.com         



Links to Extra Reading on RYM, MFT, FPH

Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everything by Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2016

Share Investor's 2016 Stock Picks

I want to thank Halle Berry because without her this years picks would

have been more difficult. She helped be with a few stragglers.

Well I'm going to do something different for next years stock picks. I'm just going to pick what I have in my portfolio - minus the weedy ones - and add what I think will be some goers for next year.

So this list is going to be a lot shorter than usual.

Ill start my begging at Sky City Entertainment SKC

This will finally be the start of many a fine year for this company. Many of the rules to relax gaming will apply and they all do so BEFORE the casino is ready to go.

Watch this start to climb from this year.

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare FPH is another pick, picked again last year, it improved substantially this year and will do again in 2016. Plenty of money being spent, new things being created and sold at less and less cost.

All this means good things if YOU are a shareholder.

Mainfreight Ltd MFT is well on track to deliver the goods in 2016.

Money has been spent on warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Brisbane, Melbourne, Los Angeles's and one other place I cant remember right now but trust me, they have shelled out the noodles, now they just have to bring them in.

Auckland Airport AIA, it delivered in 2015, it will again in 2016.

Ryman Healthcare RYM is of course a definite push for the entry doors as this keeps getting bigger and bigger. Ignore all broker conflabs about when to buy etc. Do your own research and find the time to get yourself involved.

Contact Energy CEN, get it while its under or close to 5 bucks. Its got a clear 3-4 years ahead as far as capital returns go and there maybe something up CEO Dennis Barnes sleeves.

Lastly pick Hallensteins Glassons HLG, You have to be PATIENT but you can pick it up and all day long its paying 10% plus.

And the best thing about it is that its NOT covered by analysts and brokers (surely two of the most painful words in the market-mans (see what I did there and I will do from now on) dictionary) So you can make your way without the bluff and bluster.

Its a good stock.

Now for two of the ones I don't hold.

Ebos Group EBO, value in this stock AT MUCH LOWER levels. Like in the 7-8 dollars. Good management.

Infratil Ltd IFT, I've been meaning to chuck a few shekels at you but you cant go wrong with their assets and the way the company is run.

Finally, something I see as a contender for M & A activity next year. Trustpower Ltd TPW. That's the one Dennis has his eyes on.

Told ya Id be biased. Well if I cant get behind my stocks and sell them who else is going to.

Pick these stocks on dips in their share prices-they ALL have dips.

The Warehouse WHS excluded because its just about dead the rest of my stocks are headed for the hills in the next couple of years...they will have paid for themselves and start paying me pure profit.

See you next year.

Darren

P.S. If you have your own picks put them down at the bottom.


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Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks 

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c Share Investor 2015, 2016

Mainfreight: 10 Billion in 10 years

Tis merely a blip in the ocean one could say about today's announcement of profit for the Mainfreight Group [MFT.NZ]

Which mean all the expense was done in the previous half, new or extended warehouses in Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch, Melbourne, Brisbane and the revenue failed to come in the second half - its already picking up in October and November.

Its just a matter of time and time has already added about NZ$100 million to revenue.

Revenue in New Zealand rose 5.9 percent to about $271 million and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell 3 percent to $29 million, but the company doesn't expect overhead and wage costs will need to rise further as volumes increase.

In Australia, sales rose 5.2 percent to A$248.6 million, while Ebitda fell 14 percent to A$13.2 million. The performance of its domestic transport business in Australia "was well below our expectations", contributing to the "less-than satisfactory" 26 percent drop in first-half Ebitda.
"Overhead cost increases, a declining gross margin and poor sales growth were all factors affecting the result," it said.

It should concentrate on sales growth for the following half.

In the Americas, its Mainfreight USA business lifted first-half sales by 16 percent to US$155.4 million, while Ebitda fell 13 percent to US$4.96 million. Its air and ocean business recorded 32 percent sales growth and 27 percent earnings growth. That was offset by weaker earnings from domestic operations, where sales rose 2.9 percent and Ebitda dropped 37 percent, reflecting expansion of its line-haul routes and new logistics warehouse facilities in Los Angeles, Dallas and New Jersey.

This is part of the cost that I mentioned earlier and a really exciting part of the growth seeing these towns come under the Mainfreight wing. Just like New Zealand did all those years ago. You will see untold growth coming from these areas, especially Dallas, which I have an interest in.

Mainfreight reported improved results in Europe, with sales edging up 0.7 percent to 130.8 million euros and earnings gaining 14 percent to 5.9 million euros. It posted an improved performance from its European forwarding and transport operations, helped by a turnaround in its Belgian business. Its logistics operations "continue to show progress, and it noted "good momentum" in air and ocean. Those trends were expected to continue through the second half.

The Euros always have been an anathema to me but they will eventually come right, Mainfreight will tell you themselves they paid way too much for it.

I believe the Mainfreight business is in fine form, just going over one of the many bumps in the road on the way to the 10 billion in 10 years.


Mainfreight @ Share Investor


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c Share Investor 2015

Cream Always Rises

If your me, lets begin this diatribe with a warning. Your going to get busted around the head about what to do, what not to do and how to do it.

This is coming from a place that can very few can come from, essentially death.

I almost bought the big one in February 6 2012 and the first 6 months after that has got to be the hardest I have ever spent on this planet.

The point is I am still not working and together with my allotment of stocks and some state help I am managing.

It will not be until next year when my dear ex-wife will try to pry my daughter from cold wet dead hands that my portfolio really gets a rinsing.

That is surely when it gets to test its mettle.

When its down.

Well so far the portfolio has provided 3 years of income and Ive even managed to BUY one thing - 1000 Contact Energy Ltd for $4.85 and once again it is related to my ex-wife - she works there.

(Watch the CEO Dennis Barnes he's a great guy, I believe he's going to make this company great-the people that are surrounding him, he's got Transpower on his sights.)

Well, when you buy at the correct time - the correct time is not now - you buy value.

When I bought Fisher &Paykel Healthcare in January 2012 it was the right time to buy. It actually got cheaper, $1.86, but at $2.15 I got it. I sort of wanted it to get cheaper than $1.86 but it wasn't going to be.

I watched this stock like a hawk for YEARS, I had aready bought 5000 because I was aware of the quality of the company, but I literally spent years waiting for this stock to become a bargain.

And It did, and it has become one of the rising stars of my portfolio, and looks set to become a superstar in the many years to come.

I wouldn't buy it now. I would wait. It will happen again, the stockmarket WILL tank and there you will be, buying when everyone else is selling. Just remember it will perhaps take years but as long as you have bought a good solid company (Fisher & Paykel didn't even come to the market for cash like a whole host of others did in the Great Financial Crash) it wont matter much.

Cream always rise to the surface.

The last time the stockmarket started to tank was the end of 2008 and it really didn't start getting better until sort of 2011-2012 and it has been blue skys ever since.

I'm not with your Forbes.com though I don't believe we are headed for another head turner, not just now.

The only thing you really need to concentrate on during your seach for that Apple or Google is the possible duds you might collect along the way.

My office romance has been The Warehouse.

It just hasn't made the transition to"just in time" delivery yet. Its STILL trying the thing out. While the competition has entered its earlier mode, the Warehouse really doesn't know where its at RIGHT NOW it doesn't know whether its selling online or to us.

They just haven't got it right during bad times and if you take a look down the aisles of smiles there's not many smiles anymore.

Bye bye The Warehouse Ltd.

You've just gotta keep the original basis of a few stocks FOR LIFE and change them if you really have to - like the WHS.

Stuff like the aforementioned Fisher & Paykel your Auckland Airport, Ryman Healthcare and Mainfreight is stuff I will NEVER SELL. It just continues to add value to itself.

Like others I was more interested in adding value elsewhere - Fisher & Paykel - so I didn't buy more shares in Auck Air, Ryman and Mainfreight but you as an individual identify that one company, tap into it, and ride it for all its worth.

I've got four companies I can truly be proud of, they make a positive difference in the lives of those that work for them and those that encounter them on a day to day basis.

And you're gotta be happy with that.

After all, you only get one chance.

	Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill
	Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2015