Cream Always Rises

If your me, lets begin this diatribe with a warning. Your going to get busted around the head about what to do, what not to do and how to do it.

This is coming from a place that can very few can come from, essentially death.

I almost bought the big one in February 6 2012 and the first 6 months after that has got to be the hardest I have ever spent on this planet.

The point is I am still not working and together with my allotment of stocks and some state help I am managing.

It will not be until next year when my dear ex-wife will try to pry my daughter from cold wet dead hands that my portfolio really gets a rinsing.

That is surely when it gets to test its mettle.

When its down.

Well so far the portfolio has provided 3 years of income and Ive even managed to BUY one thing - 1000 Contact Energy Ltd for $4.85 and once again it is related to my ex-wife - she works there.

(Watch the CEO Dennis Barnes he's a great guy, I believe he's going to make this company great-the people that are surrounding him, he's got Transpower on his sights.)

Well, when you buy at the correct time - the correct time is not now - you buy value.

When I bought Fisher &Paykel Healthcare in January 2012 it was the right time to buy. It actually got cheaper, $1.86, but at $2.15 I got it. I sort of wanted it to get cheaper than $1.86 but it wasn't going to be.

I watched this stock like a hawk for YEARS, I had aready bought 5000 because I was aware of the quality of the company, but I literally spent years waiting for this stock to become a bargain.

And It did, and it has become one of the rising stars of my portfolio, and looks set to become a superstar in the many years to come.

I wouldn't buy it now. I would wait. It will happen again, the stockmarket WILL tank and there you will be, buying when everyone else is selling. Just remember it will perhaps take years but as long as you have bought a good solid company (Fisher & Paykel didn't even come to the market for cash like a whole host of others did in the Great Financial Crash) it wont matter much.

Cream always rise to the surface.

The last time the stockmarket started to tank was the end of 2008 and it really didn't start getting better until sort of 2011-2012 and it has been blue skys ever since.

I'm not with your Forbes.com though I don't believe we are headed for another head turner, not just now.

The only thing you really need to concentrate on during your seach for that Apple or Google is the possible duds you might collect along the way.

My office romance has been The Warehouse.

It just hasn't made the transition to"just in time" delivery yet. Its STILL trying the thing out. While the competition has entered its earlier mode, the Warehouse really doesn't know where its at RIGHT NOW it doesn't know whether its selling online or to us.

They just haven't got it right during bad times and if you take a look down the aisles of smiles there's not many smiles anymore.

Bye bye The Warehouse Ltd.

You've just gotta keep the original basis of a few stocks FOR LIFE and change them if you really have to - like the WHS.

Stuff like the aforementioned Fisher & Paykel your Auckland Airport, Ryman Healthcare and Mainfreight is stuff I will NEVER SELL. It just continues to add value to itself.

Like others I was more interested in adding value elsewhere - Fisher & Paykel - so I didn't buy more shares in Auck Air, Ryman and Mainfreight but you as an individual identify that one company, tap into it, and ride it for all its worth.

I've got four companies I can truly be proud of, they make a positive difference in the lives of those that work for them and those that encounter them on a day to day basis.

And you're gotta be happy with that.

After all, you only get one chance.

	Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill
	Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2015

Share Investors Portfolio Picks Updated

Well, its been a busy couple of months.

NZX up around 200 points and the portfolio up in all cases except for 3x.

I'll start with those 3 first.

That's Trademe, The Warehouse and Team Talk.

Trademe down about 25c, the Warehouse around the same and Team Talk down 60 cents due to a downgrade.

Auckland International Airport is up over 50 cents, Air NZ up over 40 cents, Contact Energy up over $1, Fisher & Paykel Health up 90 cents, Hallensteins Glassons up 20 cents, Mainfreight up just over $1, NZ Refining up over 60 cents , Heartland Bank up nearly 30 cents Sky City even and Xero just 20 cents below what it was Nov 20.

They range from Heartland up 30 per cent, to Sky City even stevens and everything else in between.

Easy to pick good ones in a market that is rising but hopefully you can see what I mean about brief profits.

Real money is to be made long term.


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c Share Investor 2014, 2015

Share Investor's 2015 Stock Picks

Author at beginning of year.

I think I will pick stocks this year and give readers a chance to fill in the blanks yourselves.

Apart from the fact that the NZX 50 is up around 900 points to finish at 5530 today, you would have to say the index shows our market has been way overbought and is due for a correction, how much and when is a little harder to define.

That may also not happen, if America keeps on with its wacky ways.

With this in mind here we go.

Fisher and Paykel Healthcare

Quite high at the moment but long term readers will know I've picked this every year since I started this.

Give it a miss at these prices if you want to invest - it will get cheaper. But if your one of those short termers its worth grabbing. Will go north of $6.00.

Sky City Entertainment

This is the year I'm picking for this wonderful stock, it has almost paid for itself in 13 short/long years, divs.

I'm picking it to finally deliver in the last part of 2015. Momentum will see this stock in the high 5s.

The Warehouse Group

I'm picking this stock, because I have a hunch its dec statement to us, the public, will be a good one and its sales figures out in Jan will be more of the same. It is likely that a turn around has come.

Cross fingers.

Mainfreight Ltd

I picked this stock because of its ability to stick to its knitting, get the job done, and bring in the results.

Time after time.

2015 will be an outstanding year for the company.

Contact Energy

2015 will be a good year for Contact.

Although 2015 - 17 will be restrained in terms of demand, their supply will rewarded with historical lows in terms of cost of production.

Management have signalled either buy back, special div or higher divs for now and into the future.

Ryman Healthcare Ltd

This stock amazes me.

While it was languishing in the high 20s that's $1.20 during the financial crises of 2008 - 2011 it hardly rated a mention, I was buying it then (first disclosure).

It was making record profits then.

Now it and its sisters are making headlines once a week, how hot is the property market right now.

This will take off once the most recent profit result is known - this Friday 21 Nov.

Get it while you can.

Auckland Airport

This company is well on the road to earning the big bucks.

It wasn't long ago, 4 years ago, that it was making 100m, now it will do close to twice that.

Ain't going to have any competition, not while I'm or my daughters alive.

I see nothing but growth for this one, get on and fly.

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings

A brief one which I've traded 4x before that goes in cycles the way that it always has.

Management are aware things change - they have been in the clothing biz for over 100 years and know where it at, that is why I don't mind holding. They are a good company.

They are near the bottom once again and by most they appear to be making there way to the top again.

Heartland New Zealand

This one I picked last year @ 80 something cents.

I pick It again next year as it looks set to expand and grow revenue and profit.

Something tells me that this is a dark horse.

A Xero, in the making if you like, except this company makes a profit and has got a clear purpose.

Get it now for big future gains.

NZ Refining

NZ Refining is a cyclical stock and at present its in the low part of the cycle.

1.97 per share is cheap when one considers your buying 2.05 of NTA.

Get in while you can on good long term - 2 plus years - gain.

Trademe Group

If you can get this around $4.00 you could earn almost a buck a share next year.

It looks set to consolidate next reporting season, perhaps a we bit up and grow slightly during 2015.

Not a share I would own for a long time, has no future, but good to get in and out of on its way down to zero.

Team Talk

This one has been on my watchlist for years.

Its on the small-cap index.

Principally because of its dividend, which has been 2x 10c for long as I can remember but has recently come down to 7.5c x 2. The company say it will stay that way all of next year.

The share price has come down by more than the cost of the div making this a good long term bet to take off once it sees an improvement in bus.

Any improvement in the biz would see the div raised.

Air NZ

Just one last one to tempt the weak and perhaps make the very same strong if they hold onto this one to long.

If you can get this at 2.15 per share you should be good for the rest of 2015.

The running costs are going down and patronage is up.

Beautiful!

It will not last forever.


Warning

What not to buy!

At the time of writing this addition 19.12.14 11.30am the stock that I've got to mention is XRO. It is at $15.70 at time of writing and is set to make further slippages in 2015. It reached a high of over $45 and some and is many years away from making a profit - if at all. It has been 6.5 years on the NZX.

Stay away.

Conclusion 

As I said in the brief intro I think the index looks a little shaky.

I see a brief upswing in the new year then a tapering off throughout the year.

But we are talking a new reality, markets aren't going down like they should do.

America is doing things with its dollar that we haven't seen before and suffering the consequences - the market is going up not down.

The economy is lulling itself into a false sense of security, its not letting out the bung, it just continues to stuff it with continued monetary expansion.

O.k, I'll leave it there.

Except to say, they - America - cannot let the bung out, to do so would jeopardize world markets.



* As an addendum, the stocks from  Fisher and Paykel to Hallensteins are stocks in the share investors portfolio and are included because they are the bomb.

The rest are very worthy additions.


An Alternative to that biased, joke that is Sharetrader.


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c Share Investor 2014, 2015

The Share Investor Portfolio: Where it is today

Time to check in and see if I have refashioned, refocused, retooled or just left things the way they are with the Share Investor Portfolio.

Well, I have just revised the portfolio by adding one thing, and that is MOA.NZ. With that I have bought just 1000 at 55c. Of course they are now down to 41c, any minute now they are going to do a Lazarus like recovery and head on way past $1. That is the theory, we will soon see the practice.

I have noticed that MFT.NZ has really packed on the pounds recently putting on 45c to finish closing at $14.85. A real little rocker that finished on a high on Friday and looks set to continue. I wouldn't sell it at any price, look to see this share setting new records over the years. Management don't set well with dividing up share prices for the hell of it so looks like its headed up to Xero territory, and to stay there.

Another share doing well has been FPH.NZ , at around $4.68 it looks like it will double in value over the coming 5 years as its revenue tops 1 Billion - could be a race between Fishers and Mainfreight to see who reaches silly heights, love the market.

SKC.NZ isn't doing well at the moment, I thinks its started this year about where it is now - but be warned when news comes out about the new gaming features the company is going to bring to the market and how well they do - the share is going to take off. It owes me very little.

RYM.NZ is another great , fantastic, splendid share. Cant really say much more about this, growing BIG.

AIA.NZ has taken a wee turn for the worse but owes me very little, while CEN.NZ has returned about 30% but has yet to take off - National winning the election will take care of that.

And the WHS.NZ is doing what it always does, lurching along from one profit warning to another.

One truly good company, HLG.NZ is down about 25% bought 10000 last year for $4.42 is struggling and even though it has recently came out with all looks well, seems to be marking time to the actual profit announcement in September.

Well, thats it really, remember, think and do your OWN research before plucking down the dollars. It is only money but its your money!


Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks

	Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill
	Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2014

Brokers 2014 Stock Picks

Superstar Xero a surprising omission from list for investors to add to their portfolios

Mainfreight is a popular pick for a strong performance in 2014 due to its increasing international exposure. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Air New Zealand is the most popular pick by brokers for 2014 riding on the back of strong expectations for profit growth at the national carrier.

Three out of seven brokers chose the airline, whose shares have already risen more than 25 per cent this year.

Rob Mercer, an analyst at Forsyth Barr, said Air New Zealand was heading into 2014 in great shape with earnings expected to increase from those already seen in 2013.

"Air New Zealand (is) poised to deliver several years of strong profit performance."

Mercer said the drivers behind that were improved demand, cost cutting, changes to loss-making long-haul routes and stable fuel prices.

Macquarie analyst Brad Gordon said Air New Zealand had outperformed its airline peers yet it was trading at a cheaper price.

"Air New Zealand's return on equity is around 11 per cent, Qantas is basically zero."

Gordon said that in the past Air New Zealand's value had traded at a discount because of the Government's high level of ownership.

The 20 per cent sold down by the Government in 2013 reduced the overhang issue and increased liquidity in the stock. Trade volumes had been boosted from around half a million dollars a day to around $1.5 million to $2 million.

Gordon said the nature of the New Zealand market meant Air New Zealand stood to benefit from the country's strong economic growth and flow-on effects from the Christchurch rebuild with more people travelling up and down the country.

Outside of Air New Zealand, Diligent, Chorus, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Contact Energy, Infratil and Mainfreight received two picks each.

Diligent, a software providers of corporate board documents, was a top performer in 2012 but this year it has struggled with governance issues and delays in restating its accounts. Its shares have fallen more than 25 per cent.

Gordon was not worried about Diligent having to restate its accounts.

"It's not entirely unusual for new software companies to go through restatements globally."

The big question mark was whether the issue had distracted management and impacted sales for the company. He would be looking closely at quarterly sales figures due out early next year.

Diligent was a top pick for brokers in 2013 but remarkably none of the brokers have picked Xero either this year or for 2014, despite its stellar performance.

Gordon believed that was down to a lack of understanding over Xero's valuation. "The last $15 the company put on really there has been no news. On the face of it it's the most expensive SAAS (software as a service) company on valuation."

Others have zeroed in on companies with strong global growth prospects.

Mark Lister, head of research at Craigs Investment Partners, said he picked Fisher & Paykel Healthcare because the business is growing strongly offshore and was well positioned to continue to deliver over the medium term. "If we see any currency weakness emerge, this would serve to enhance the investment proposition even more," he said.

Lister also picked Mainfreight for its increasing international exposure.

"Mainfreight has a strong brand and market position in Australasia but over recent years, an increasing portion of revenues and earnings have come from international operations including those in Europe and the US.

"A recovery in some of these regions, as well as any strength in the currency, would benefit Mainfreight."

Forsyth Barr's Mercer said he backed Mainfreight because it had a high marginal return on equity, it was beating peers on earnings growth and had a proactive executive team.

"Mainfreight has substantial global growth prospects."

Brokers top picks:

Macquarie Securities
Summerset Group
Diligent
Pumpkin Patch
Air New Zealand
Chorus

First NZ Capital
Fisher and Paykel Healthcare
Hellaby Holdings
Airwork Holdings
Z Energy
Contact Energy

Goldman Sachs
Trade Me
Tower
Air New Zealand
Infratil
Nuplex

Craigs Investment Partners
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fletcher Building
Meridian Energy
Mainfreight
Australian Foundation Investment Company

Forsyth Barr
Air New Zealand
Contact Energy
Sky Television.
Mainfreight
Opus International Consultants

Hamilton Hindin Greene
Metlifecare
Chorus
Steel & Tube
A2 Corp
NZX

McDouall Stuart
Telecom
Diligent
Infratil
Heartland Bank
VMob

*Disclaimer - Before using the Business Herald survey to choose a broker or stocks, readers should recognise that the results are skewed by some features. The figures exclude brokers fees. Brokers are asked to choose the securities that will give the best short-term performance. If they had been asked to choose, for example, a five year term, the results might be different. The survey does not allow brokers to review choices during the year. The survey implies a one-size-fits-all approach. It takes no account of individual circumstances such as an investor's appetite for risk, need for income or tax circumstances. The views expressed do not constitute personalised financial advice and are not directed at any person. Finally, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
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	Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times byMichael Hill
	Think Bigger: How to Raise Your Expectations and Achieve Everythingby Michael Hill

c Share Investor 2012, 2013, 2014

Share Investor's 2014 Stock Picks

2013 has been another great year for stocks rising almost 15% to roughly 4700 on the index so forget about what might happen and suspend belief for a nanosecond and take a squiz at what I have for you.

The stock picking monkey has been very busy this year with a few surprises.

This year the monkey had a really hard go at it but managed to get through quite a few interesting picks.

This year I have picked stocks based on nothing except value of the stock based on where I think it will go.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

This year I have sold some stocks, PPL, HLG, MHI, BGR and others, because I had to - My ex-wife said so - and some of them had run their natural course, about $110,000.00.

My picks are primarily based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty, I pick a down year for 2014.

NB: Since I think most of my portfolio consist of the best stocks on the New Zealand market, I found it difficult to pick stocks outside my realm of self interest. This year I will give you the individual number of shares I have of each stock.



[RYM.NZX] Ryman Healthcare has got to be the pick of the bunch. One that I have held for at least 6 years I bought this one for $1.97 and it has returned at least 400%. I have 5000.

This had another record year this year of a 22% profit lift on last year of $58.5m.

It is looking good for the short to medium term but could face some hurdles when its housing stock needs modernizing because it is the company that owns the stock.

The big thing of recent weeks is the fact that their foray into Australia looks to have gone better than planned and they are going into the second stage of this development. They are also looking at another site.

This is not a stock that I'm currently buying but new investors could not find a better stock to get into.

Id climb into this one with gay abandon, especially if the Oz experience mirror ours and we find that out in March/April 2004.


[MFT.NZX] Mainfreight Ltd is only the second stock of mine that I deem is worth another glance in 2014.

Mainfreight has had an up and down year in respect of results with Novembers report indicating a profit up 7.7%  at $29.87m but some warnings about various divisions struggling next year.

I am however picking a stellar year for Mainfreight, with revenue up on last year and profits up at least 10% on most divisions. Why do I say this? Simply because of the way Mainfreight is designed for individual success, I am picking 2014 for Mainfreight to finally get things together and for that individual stuff to combine and really make things hot in 2014.

Buy on anything close to $10, with a view to long term gains.



[FPH.NZX] Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd is a stock that I have picked for each stock pick series and here the reason why, well several reasons why it should be in your portfolio picks for next year.

This years profit result, announced mid November was a record at NZ$303.9 million, 14% above the prior comparable period as a result of strong revenue growth in the company’s two major product groups and that is set to continue next year.

The revenue is growing and set to grow further in 2014 and set to double in 5 years - it grew around 15% this year and is set to outstrip that in 2014.

Our dollar certainly cannot stay where it is for 2014, it is set for a big re-ratng because of interest rate hikes.

The product range is huge for 2014, and plenty of funds will be used to produce more for the new year.

Get in at under $4.00.


[SKC.NZX] Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd has had a good 2013, with a  FY 2013 profit at the hands of an excellent CEO who was able to win the Govts (national and local) over their plans for a convention centre and a number of strategies planned and executed to produce pleasing results for shareholders. The share price of the company has not however tracked its increased fortunes and has been trading in 2013 from $3.50 to just over $4.50.

It has also won the Govt over in Adelaide with a major revamp of that particular centre. with lower taxes as part of the deal.

This and the fact that all of their assets are competition free mean this one is probably the buy of all my picks this year.

Its had a profit downgrade on the 17th of  December but these things happen it will shine again - spectacularly .

At $3.60 this share is cheap, get it while you can.


[CNU.NZX] Chorus Ltd. This may seem an anathema to my usual picks and it is, it is purely a spectator play because I see it as very cheap at $1.45 and worth releasing at about $2.20-$2.30.

Most notably its asset backing is $1.21, so that leaves 24c for intangibles and that looks very cheap at that price.

No matter what the larger market may say about the dividends - and if they come at all watch for another rise - they will come again soon, and any way your not going to be in long enough to know or care about those.

Get them while you can.


[HLG.NZ] Hallensteins Glassons Ltd used to be a company I held for about 5 years until my wife considered it surplus to my requirements any way I made about an additional $4000 from a $2500 outlay. Considered that this had had its day. But wait bad news and its time to go sniffing again.

Hallenstein Glassons has warned investors it expects its first-half net profit to fall by 20 per cent compared to last year. The NZX-listed clothing retailer said it expected to post a net profit of $8 million for the six months ending February 1, a decrease from last year's interim net profit of $10.4m.

There has been the talk of international competition from various websites, tax free, and they may have a point, but this has happened before and Hallensteins has aways managed to counter this and get back margins.

I have done this before with this share and have held it overnight and have held long term, either way you will get your money back.

Buy up to $4.50.


[HNZ.NZX] Heartland Bank New Zealand Ltd has been a bank only since last December and its shares were trading last week at around 85c, what they are trading at now, below their net tangible asset value of 85.2c. Assuming the assets are valued accurately, the shares are therefore relatively cheap.

Profitability is low, sure, but it is improving. In the coming year, it is expecting net profit of $34m to $37m.

As a new bank, Heartland has been given more onerous capital requirements by the Reserve Bank than the established players. Its tier-one capital ratio - basically the equity as a percentage of risk-weighted assets - must exceed 12 per cent, while the requirement for ANZ and Westpac is 6 per cent.
 
They all exceed the minimum by some distance, but Heartland naturally has a little less headroom. Its tier-one capital ratio at balance date was 14.8 per cent, providing a buffer of 2.8 percentage points over the minimum.

You would do well to get them below $1, get them while you can.


[SUM.NZX] Summerset Group Holdings Ltd has a strong development pipeline for future growth. Five villages are currently under construction, including the recently acquired site in Dunedin. Summerset also has three quality land sites in Karaka, Katikati and Hobsonville and is continually evaluating new sites to support the development of further villages based on what is the sheer demand for units.

In 2012, 160 retirement units were completed at four of Summerset’s developing sites –Hastings, Nelson, Dunedin and Warkworth. Summerset now have 1,646 retirement units and 327 care beds.

The company has also purchased two new sites in Auckland: 7.6 hectares of waterfront land in Hobsonville and a prime 3.9 hectare site at Ellerslie. These sites bring their land bank to 1,400 retirement units and more than 400 care beds. The one in Hobsonville should be a cracker, pure waterfront, prime position, plenty of land for decent sized footprint.

This should do what  [RYM.NZX] & [MET.NZ] have done and defy all expectations and take off depending on what they all do come reporting season.

Get them while you can.


                    
Nasdaq

YUM! Brands Inc
[YUM.NASDAQ]



A pick from 2010, 2011,2012, & 2013 Yum ! Brands Inc has consistently grown each and every year and achieved a 40000 th store opening for 2013 and with more tasty growth to come in 2014 and beyond from China & India still make this company a Finger Lickin proposition. It will never be cheaper. China is the BIG growth story for 2014.
 

Conclusion & Outlook for 2014

2014 will be an interesting year for stocks, will they do what they did in 2013, unlikely. What we will have to wait and see is what the USA will do with unwinding there debt - will they,wont they - how China reacts to that and how Europe will do has a major effect on that.

As an investor, you must simply find value in the companies you invest in. Its out there, you just have to do a little research yourself.

You may not find this approach pleasing, if you don't find a broker and put your money with him or her.

These are my picks.


*Just an added footnote. Please feel free to post your own stock picks for 2014. The only requirement is that you say why and declare any financial interest. Post them below at the bottom of this piece or click here.


Disclosure : I own SKC, FPH, MFT, RYM, CNU, HLG, SUM shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2012 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
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Broker Picks

Brokers 2013 Stock Picks
Brokers 2012 Stock Picks
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c Share Investor 2012, 2013, 2014

Share Investor: Taking a Break

The Share Investor name hasn't gone away, its just taking a well earnt break, all is well and everything is fine, just nothing much interests me much, except I have taken a massive cut in the portfolio, 20%, and that's to do with personal things.

Soon as I return, I will let you know.

Keep in mind that Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Ltd [FPH.NZ] is still in play (see previous post) and that commentators about what I have and how I measure it are entitled to your opinions, I will continue to measure the portfolio the way I want and publish the details - periodically.

Keep cool heads and safe and sound and lets be careful out there.

Share Investor

Darren


Recommended Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2013