Monday, April 15, 2019

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings: Winter Surprise?

Hallenstein Glasson last recommended here in Jan has taken the 20 net div off and retreated somewhat in its share price.

I cant work out what this share is going to do in terms of share price except to say ill give you some of my feelings on the matter if you were going to buy this company right now.

The all important US/kiwi cross is about the same, inventory is crisp and buying is on key.

What is not apparent, yet, is what the consumer is going to do, and how that will develop along with winter temps.

Hallensteins has been hurt before by mild winters, so what is needed by the group to get the ultimate shot is a good winter all over the country AND it has happened before.

So as far as the winter is going, well it is starting to look good. It is getting cooler than usual for this time of year - in Albany.

Where does that leave the share prince for an opening?

Well I am picking weakness - not unusual for this time of year - so a pull back to the early $4.20's wouldn't be a surprise and if there's anything unusual going on, HLG management will bluntly let us know, they always do.

Either way don't forget that this is the number 1 payer of divs on the NZX. Currently paying over 9 % pa net.

AND its showing a lot more buying interest over the last year - a lot.

Trade/Invest wisely.

Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

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Share Investor 2019

Saturday, April 13, 2019

Right Now Its all about the Dividend

Image result for Right Now Its all about the Dividend

Well I am a simple guy.

Simple things follow me around.

A like simple cars, simple food, a simple place to lay my head, a simple woman (mmwwhh) and a simple place to park my money.

With the money thing in mind let me tell you it has been quite easy to do - I have gotten where i want to go and am living comfortably off on my dividends.

I have gotten to this point by working hard and buying stocks at the right prices at the right time and by keeping them forever.

You must never touch the source of the dividends. Never.

I had a life changing incident that happened over 7 years ago and this kind of coincided with the beginnings of bull runs - that still haven't ended - all around the planet and luckily matched my criteria for buying shares and I bought a lot.  

How did a bloke who has enjoyed a lot of his life, got divorced, got lawyers involved in his private life managed to be in the envious position of not having to work if he doesn't want to - I don't see that happening really - and is about to make a leap into the "unknown"? Well it was kind of "planned" that way.

Like most human beings I think i'm basically a lazy person. So everything from the age of 30 right up until I was a father in my 40's was working.

Really stepping into my investing life once again everything has been engineered or "planned" in that way. I always looked for good dividend paying stocks - after making a few pratfalls along the way - and over the years those have paid off big time. 

There has been much writing done throughout this blog about my style of investing but its basically buy a great company at the right price and keep your eyes on it.

I only own 8 companies on the NZX.

That sort of brings me back to right now.

You have to maintain that discipline, especially when you are paying a higher price -remember your money isn't going to get a better return than the stock market.

Right now, I don't see any other sort of investment that is going to return more money to you now than a great company on the NZX - and you can include other borses as well. There are still 1 or 2 companies around now that are paying good divs or will be in a good position to pay far higher divs in the future and I have some now!!

And until something goes uncontrollably wrong - like interest rates creep up. Little is going to happen. I say little because you can never be to sure whats around the corner.

AND of course 5 years down the track you will be saying what did that bloke say again?

Invest/trade wisely.

c Share Investor 2019

Saturday, March 30, 2019

Share Price Alert : Contact Energy 14

My pick for the 20 Feb was this one and its just about to pass the $7 mark - its @ $6.94c - which it is what I said was the mark to look at selling.

Which I have yesterday with a small portion.

BUT what I didn't count on was this, the continuation of the low, low interest rates that continue to haunt the globe - I don't agree with this but that is another story for another day.

Interest rates look to be on hold or indeed downwards. What do investors need and in fact what they did do this week? They bought stock on the NZX. Not just Contact Energy but many of the other energy retailers and anything else with a financial pulse. In fact the NZX finished the quarter on an all-time high.

My guess is that they will continue to buy this stock in particular because it has a return of just over 5% and looks set for a bigger return this Aug when they will report a big one, no doubt, along with a 20c DIV.

So even though I initially said now was a time to think of selling what happened this week to interest rates for me would add another 50c or so to bring my price to $7.50.

Get out at that price if you will or continue to hold, like me AND collect the DIVS.

AND remember these low interest rates are set to continue for at least 2 years.

Invest/trade wisely!!!

CEN @ Share Investor

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Thursday, March 14, 2019

Arvida Group Ltd: When to Buy

You could be forgiven for thinking Arvida Group has been stuck in a holding pattern since June 2018 but you can take off the table about 5 cents because that is the DIV and your just about within the range of where its been trading. So there's been no movement since then.

According to Moaningstar - I know but others in the industry say its around the same - it has a net asset backing of $1.15c.

That's relatively important because in its short history of about 4 years the stock hasn't gone below $1.10 (except when it was finding its feet in the first year when it dipped to .79c) and is unlikely to unless we have another stockmarket rort like we had 10 years ago or the housing market over corrects - which I have said is happening right now. Just beware of that one caveat - because if it does explode expect this share will come right back to under $1.

Having said that it is still worth accumulating because Simplywallstreet has this share at a discounted cash flow value of $3.98.

Its also paying a reasonable DIV of just over 4.23% net and trades at a p.e. ratio of 7.26.

So with this stock you can see quite a few possibilities. Ranging from .79c to the $1.30's range.

BUT it is a stock worth buying you just have to watch it closely - which i have over the last many, many months.

I will add to my current holding AND will severely if it slips wildly.

Keep cool till after the stock market closes. 

Trade/invest wisely.

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