Monday, March 18, 2013

Cyprus: Bailout Deepens but Can it Affect US

News of a forced bailout of Cypriot banks should come as good news to us over here.

Savers will be forced to pries open their accounts to the tune of 10%, ok if you are sniveling leftie who has contributed to the collapse but this leaves out the vast numbers of unemployed, students, teachers etc who also contributed.

This would best be avoided through an overall tax of 10% on individuals incomes for 2-3 years. That, way no individual could avoid it unless they were unemployed the full 3 years.

Of course this is bad news and unfair on all those who paid their own way, and continue to but life is unfair, I guess.

But the real consequences for us is that the same thing could happen here. Under our own Open Bank Resolution ,(RBS) (Brought to you by Leighton Smith and my mate at The Lost Soul blog)


" The OBR policy is designed to ensure that first losses are borne by the bank’s existing shareholders. In addition, a portion of depositors’ and other unsecured creditors’ funds will be frozen to bear any remaining losses. To the extent that these funds are not required to cover losses as more detailed assessment of the position of the bank is completed, these funds will be released to depositors. At a high level, this outcome replicates the outcome that would apply in the event that a failed bank was liquidated. The primary advantage of the OBR scheme, however, is that depositors would have access to a large proportion of their balances throughout the process. This contrasts with what would happen under a normal liquidation, where depositors might not have access to any of their funds for a significant period."


NO, no no.

Most people who put their money into bank accounts the buck stops at their accounts they are not, and do not participate in the banks profits, or in this case the banks (sort of - they are govts that are intervening on their own (govts) losses) losses.

In this case it is clearly wrong headed to do, would cause panic and would clearly be an election loser.

Will it happen here?

In theory yes but our banks are among the safest in the world  (read the august 2012 PWC report ) but should they really need to they have free pass.

That should worry us all.


Banks @ Share Investor




Friday, March 15, 2013

Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 3




I know it can I think it can, that's the phrase Xero Ltd [XRO.NZX] holders have been using over the last couple of months as the share price has moved from mid 8s to the mid 10s. Still,  it has gone higher than I would have imagined, its trajectory really bizarre given that has yet to turn a profit or even getting close to it.

I suppose that I should really rate it based on the Australian experience - they tend to go overboard on stock prices too, but I really cant pick it. 


In absence of bad news it seems to be up from here.   


I suppose they would have to add 5 0r 6 bucks - those folks from the land of oz - because they have stocks based on nothing that are valued in similar multiples.


You will lose money if you buy this stock ... unless you are an insider. 



Xero Ltd @ Share Investor 


Xero: To those I haven't warned before

Do you still Love Xero?
Share Price Alert: Xero Ltd 2
Share Price Alert:Xero Ltd
Xero Ltd: 2011 HY Loss looking promising
From Xero to Hero?
Stock of the Day: Xero Ltd
Rod Drury ready for the long-haul with Xero
Share Investor Interview: Xero's Rod Drury
Xero Ltd: Download full Company Analysis
Rod Drury on Xero and Growing Business
Xero set for surprise to the Market?
Love Xero? 
Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week: Xero Ltd

Discuss Xero @ Share Investor Forum


Download Xero Company Report
Listen to Rod Drury Interview





Shareinvestor 2013




Thursday, March 14, 2013

Of Wagging, Salivating Tongues

I'm getting nervous.

Why am I getting nervous?

Because the value of my portfolio keeps rising - I'm what you call a slightly negative investor.

The value of the portfolio is just over $ 509,000.00 and has climbed steadily since my incarceration ended at the end of May - from around $ 390,000.00.

It reached the half million mark at the beginning of the week and has put on nearly 20% in 2.5 months.

My finger is poised to sell but I just cant, yet, because nobody has been crazy enough to give me what I want.

I want to ditch the 10000 ASBPB shares I hold and FBU but think I can get more for these if I wait, and for some smaller holdings of others, BGR and HLG have done really well...350 plus %.

Starting to do well is FPH, well duh the dollar wasn't going to stay at that rate forever, it is the reason the stock is performing, not that the company is actually performing, as it has been for years.

Contact energy looks about to break of of its trading range of $5.30 - $5.50 and bout time to since it will be doing some sort of fine business in the countries heatwave/drought and this coming profit result should be a doozy - and it may be taken over by someone.

The WHS dropped into the green this week as I stepped back into the country after holiday - oh ditch the holiday moniker, seriously but it was up and I had one guy who took my advice to buy some last week, who did and he scored about 8 k - beat my 3k after about 5 years.

SKC is going up and up and up - notice a pattern there. Well it keeps reaching for the limit of the tower but it is one that apart from being up about 150% after 10 years and almost now practically free still owes me about 2 bucks per share.

Then there is FRE which has gone up about 90% but still bugs me that it has not gone further  - it will one day.

Then MFT always end with the good ones North of 120% and still looking like a winner.

What else can I say ?


Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
Usually ships in 24 hours



Shareinvestor 2013

Thursday, February 21, 2013

NZ HERALD: Sky City and Herald answer back


SkyCity got special treatment in its pitch to build the international convention centre - but nothing which will get in the way of a formal deal being struck.

An investigation by the Office of the Auditor-General found the casino's promise to cover the $350 million cost of building the convention centre gave it a clear advantage over any other interested party.

It means the casino and executives can get back to negotiating over the casino's list of changes to the Gambling Act which it wants to trade for building the centre next to its Auckland headquarters. The casino has said it wants 300 more pokies, extra table games and an early extension to its exclusive licence.

While the report revealed SkyCity was treated "very differently" to other bidders, Prime Minister John Key said it "utterly refuted" allegations his Government had struck a "cosy deal" with SkyCity. He blamed officials for "a few procedural matters" but said there was "nothing of substance that would have changed any of the outcomes".

The process problems identified by Deputy Auditor-General Phillippa Smith emerged in the report from the time the Prime Minister - also Tourism Minister - became personally involved. In August 2009, Mr Key told officials to halt a scoping project on a convention centre proposal to "close off the SkyCity angle". He later explained he had a "broad awareness" SkyCity had development plans.

Mr Key's understanding of the casino's desire for development followed a meeting between himself and SkyCity executives although neither Mr Key or the casino "can recall the discussion" on May 14, 2009. There was also a later meeting between the casino and the Prime Minister's chief of staff Wayne Eagleson on June 17, 2009, at which development was discussed.

After the PM halted the scoping project, SkyCity met the PM's senior advisers in September 2009 who said they wanted changes to the Gambling Act which had previously stymied the casino's expansion plans by limiting the number of pokies and other games allowed.

Then Mr Key was briefed on options for the convention centre at a dinner with SkyCity board members and executives on November 4, 2009. He urged them to "think outside the box".
As the casino and Beehive moved closer together, Treasury began raising concerns about "process and probity".

Ms Smith said: "We have concerns about the apparent readiness of officials to support those discussions developing into more substantive negotiations without preparing to give advice on the Government's procedural obligations and options."

Warnings about process were conveyed to Mr Key in a briefing note on November 12, 2009.

In 2010, the Government began calling for an expression of interest from groups wanting the contract. At a meeting with officials, Mr Key said the SkyCity deal was "a good proposal".

However Ms Smith said the process "fell short of good practice in a number of respects". That included the fact ministers and officials continued to have contact with SkyCity to discuss its proposal.

Ms Smith said these meetings were "not appropriate" as it provided SkyCity with information other bidders did not receive. She also said the casino had the advantage in knowing the Government didn't plan on putting any money into the project, allowing it to shape its offer.

In September 2010, the casino put forward a list of changes to the law it wanted. It also said it wanted the Government to buy land from TVNZ to accommodate a large design for the centre.

SkyCity was announced as the preferred bidder in June 2011 with Mr Key promising changes to the Gambling Act would only come after a public submissions.

Greens co-leader Metiria Turei, who sparked the inquiry with a complaint, said the report was "hugely damning" and showed "the relationship with SkyCity was so cosy that the other proposers didn't stand a chance".

Labour leader David Shearer said: "This has had John Key's fingerprints all over it and it was a shonky deal and John Key is donkey-deep in it."

Project's boost to jobs, GDP in question

John Key announced SkyCity's selection as preferred bidder with the promise of 800 jobs on completion and 1000 jobs on construction.

The numbers contrasted with a government feasibility study which put construction jobs at 150 a year for five years - a total of 750. The number of people to be employed in the centre was also lower - between 318 and 479 jobs against 500 fulltime equivalents.

There is also question about the value of the deal to New Zealand, the Prime Minister initially saying it would increase GDP by $49 million. The Auditor-General's report stated a $72 million increase while Economic Development Minister Steven Joyce was last night saying $100 million.

The casino was refusing to comment yesterday as chief executive Nigel Morrison toured Australia with the company's half-year results. In a statement, he said he was looking forward to starting negotiations towards investing the $350 million "provided acceptable returns can be delivered on the total project".

Mr Morrison is known to have become frustrated with delays on the project, the $350 million saved for Auckland's centre recently spent in Australia, supported by both South Australia's Labor Government and Liberal opposition.

Alan Trotter, chief executive of Conventions NZ, said it had cleared the path for the deal to be struck. He said the report also revealed the Prime Minister's ability to strike deals which was to be admired. "There is no such deal as the perfect deal but it's a very pragmatic deal. The key element here is to start construction."
He said conventions of the size the centre would handle needed five to seven years' notice and marketing should begin the moment building started. The centre promised much for New Zealand and the inquiry had sent out ripples of uncertainty. "The Greens have a lot to answer for."

-David Fisher

How events unfolded

May 2009: Key meets SkyCity CEO. Key says changes to the Gambling Act did not come up.
July 2009: Ministry of Tourism and City Council complete convention centre feasibility study. Key briefed on findings and officials recommend developing business case. Officials later told of proposal being developed by SkyCity. Key tells officials to cease work and await SkyCity proposal.
September 2009: SkyCity, Ministry of Economic Development officials and Key's chief of staff discuss Gambling Act changes.
November 2009: Key has dinner with SkyCity board, discussing convention centre and possible changes to the Gambling Act.
March 2010: Cabinet decides to call for "expressions of interest" from other developers. Tender process begins two months later.
May 2011: Process closes. SkyCity, The Edge, Ngati Whatua, Infratil, and ASB Showgrounds respond.
June 2011: SkyCity wins with $350m bid. It requires no state funding but depends on changes to Gambling Act allowing more pokies and other concessions.
June 2012: Deputy Auditor- General Phillippa Smith announces investigation into tendering.
January 2013: Key sees draft report and is "not losing any sleep". The Herald reports SkyCity's plans to increase size of gaming floor.



Sky City Convention Centre @ Share Investor 

VIDEO - Sky City Entertainment Group : Parliamentary Question related to Convention Centre
Sky City to pay for National Convention Centre
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
SKC Convention Centre power-point slide illustrations & SKC submission to Auckland City Council

Sky City Entertainment Group @ Share Investor


Share Investor's 2013 Stock Picks 
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group 
Sky City Gaming: Morningstars look at Sky City's gaming
Share Investor's Total Returns: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Presentation to Macquarie Group
Morningstar Revalues Sky City Entertainment Group
Guest Post - Michele Hewitson Interview: Nigel Morrison
Failed Sky City bid for Christchurch Casino good news for Shareholders
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Christchurch Casino bid falls short of Investment Criteria
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Never mind the width feel the volume
Sky City Annual Meeting & 2011 - 2012 Profit Forecast
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City set to lose National Convention Centre bid
Sky City Entertainment Group: Australian Acquisition on the Cards?
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Chart of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Share Investor discusses Convention Centre proposal with CEO Nigel Morrison
Share Investor Q & A: Sky City CEO, Nigel Morrison
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money Loser: Part Two
Sky City Convention Centre Expansion a Money loser
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd: Download full Company analysis
Sky City 2010 full year profit looking good
Long Term View: Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 Half Year
Sky City Entertainment Group 2010 Interim Profit Review
Sky City to focus on Gaming
Sky City debts levels now more manageable
Insider Trading on Sky City shares
Sky City Profit Upgrade: Always on the Cards
Sky City's Current Cinema "Boom" a Horror Story in Disguise
Stock of the Week: Sky City Entertainment Group
Are Insiders selling Sky City Stock?
Sky City Entertainment 2009 Interim Result Preamble
2008 Sky City profit analysis
Sky City share offer confusing and unfair for smaller shareholders
Sky City Entertainment 2008 Full Year profit results , NZX release, 2008 full year presentation, result briefing webcast, financial statements
Sky City 2008 profit preamble
Sky City outlines a clear future plan
As recession bites Sky City bites back
Sky City Assets: Buy, sell and hold
Why did you buy that stock? [Sky City Entertainment]
Sky City Share Volumes set tongues wagging
Sky City half year exceptional on cost cutting
NZX Press release: Sky City profit to HY end Dec 2007
Sky City Cinemas no Blockbuster
Sky City Entertainment share price drop
New Broom set to sweep
Sky City Management: Blind, deaf and numb
Sky City sale could be off
Opposition to takeover
Premium for control
Sky City receives takeover bid
Sky City Casino Full Year Profit to June 30 2007
Setting the record straight
Sky City CEO resigns
Sky City Casino: Under performing
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit(analysis)
Sky City Casino 2007 HY Profit

Discuss SKC @ Share Investor Forum
Download SKC Company Reports

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $6.99
Usually ships in 24 hours



Shareinvestor 2013