Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 3

Chart forNew Zealand Refining Co Ltd (NZR.NZ)

When we last looked at New Zealand Refining Ltd [NZR.NZX] back in May 2011 its shares were trading at $4.50 and its prospects at that time were starting to look better as oil prices continued to climb and refining margins increased.

In June 2010
I picked the stock at $3.10 for the same reasons as stated above.

Yesterday the NZR finished trading at $3.72 for the day after reaching $3.50 2 weeks ago and a 52 week high of $5.20 in late February.

It seems the market was not enamored of the NZR Throughput and Margin Report for March-April 2011 out early June which showed that a 10 day outage of some crucial plant impacted on margins. This is a temporary outage though and margins have since been restored.

This is a good opportunity to get in while the stock price is low and even though global oil prices are under some pressure the price per barrel is unlikely to fall much lower considering demand from Asia.

This stock was in the 2011 Share Investor Stock Picks at $3.95.

NZR 5 year margin & throughput report

*A heads up to Share Investor Blog reader Phillip for informing me of the drop in NZR. I would buy Phillip.


Share Price Alert Series

New Zealand Refining Ltd 2
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


NZR @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: NZ Refining Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week - Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd
Chart of the Week: New Zealand Refining Ltd
Stock of the Week: NZ Refining Ltd

Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports


Think Bigger

 Think Bigger, By Michael Hill

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c Share Investor 2011



Monday, July 4, 2011

Charlies Group Ltd: Asahi make takeover offer

What was looking likely all along has happened to Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX] this morning. An offer has been made for full control of the company by 
Asahi Beverages New Zealand Limited, whose parent company is Asahi Group Ltd [2502:JP], the Japanese brewing and drinks giant.

The offer made this morning is 44c which is 16c or 57% higher than its trading close of 28c last Friday. Directors have given their full support for the takeover and it is likely that shareholders will accept given the significant premium over the market price.

Asahi have obviously seen the positive progress of the company over the last year or so and the distribution channels (1, 2) that they have opened up in Australia recently would compliment their Schweppes Australia softdrink business and also open up further shelf space for Charlies products.



Investors only have to ask themselves if they think current management would be able to add the same value that Asahi will do for the Charlies brand and how long they would take to do that and therefore propel the share price to the level of thew Asahi offer.

Depending on your long-term outlook for the company, the offer looks like a good one for the short to medium term shareholder and will be a good cash boost for the founders of the company Marc Ellis and Stephan Lepionka.


Charlies was a pick at 17.5c in Share Investors 2011 Stock Picks.


Takeover Documents


Charlies Group @ Share Investor


Share Price Alert: Charlies Group Ltd
Share Investor Q & A: Charlies Group CEO Stefan Lepionka
Chart of the Day: Charlies Group Ltd
Charlies Group: A Triumph of Style over Substance
Charlies juicing through Shareholder cash

Discuss CHA @ Share Investor Forum





c Share Investor 2011





Allan Hubbard Saga: 7th Grant Thornton Report - Hubbard Management Funds

The Seventh Grant Thornton Reports (there are two separate ones for HMF & Aorangi) into Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities Limited and Hubbard Management Funds which are the investment vehicles that Allan Hubbard has been charged with fraud over makes for grim reading for Hubbard and investors in the two failed entities which are now in statutory management.

These latest reports cover off some of the detail of fraud charges that have been brought to the Timaru High Court by the SFO just a few weeks ago after over a year of meticulous investigation.

We will cover off HMF here after drilling into Aorangi Securities yesterday in a previous posting.

First word of caution from me in relation to Grant Thornton managing this fund and in the process buying shares to "add value to the investors". While I don't have a problem with the statutory managers continuing to operate the fund as an ongoing concern - in fact they are legally obliged to - I do have a small problem in relation to disclosure as to which shares the managers might be buying. While I know the process of statutory management means they have considerable control over the company they have under management and can operate how they see fit - within the bounds of statutory management laws - I think it might be wise for Grant Thornton to disclose in their reports to the public the number of shares, what prices were paid and what shares are being purchased so people like myself and investors in HMF can follow their fortunes. I dont think it is enough to say the shares being purchased are "Blue Chip".

OK, enough of the barbs!

Lets take a look at the main points contained in the report.

As stated in earlier Thornton Reports there is a $31 million shortfall in the fund as has been stated in investor statements (another possible fraud charge of the 50 Hubbard has been charged with) so the outcome for investors and their payback is still uncertain and will rely on a recovering sharemarket, (which is unlikely given the current state of the economy) a court case in 2012 that will unlikely see an outcome until at least midway through that year and the order in which investors rank for payback depending on who they are and what they have invested in - or increasingly what they think they have invested in.

As with investments in Aorangi Securities, investments in HMF have more than one claim of ownership made on them:

"As part of our work we have established that certain shares may be subject to claims by third parties, in competition with HMF investors. We have not included these shares as part of the portfolio value until we have resolved the issues associated with the claims and can establish whether or not the HMF investors can receive the benefit of those shares. Some of the shares subject to claim have been pledged as security to financiers for borrowings made by Mr Hubbard or businesses related to him". 7th Grant Thornton Report - Hubbard Management Funds

Another issue no doubt that the Serious Fraud Office was concerned about when they laid fraud charges against Mr Hubbard and symptomatic of so much of Hubbard's latter investing practices right across his collapsed business empire.

Like other parts of Mr Hubbard's vast business empire, HMF has lax, missing, misleading and in some cases fraudulent paperwork. Grant Thornton is spending considerable time trying to put the paperwork jigsaw puzzle together and this is partly to blame for the delay in filing papers in the High Court to then allow the distribution of funds to investors out of pocket. This kind of sub - par financial reporting has been going on for at least 5 years.

Perhaps the most glaringly abysmal case of either lax, omitted, misleading or fraudulent parts of book-keeping carried out by Mr Hubbard is his treatment of the cash position of HMF:

"We have been able to complete our work on the cash elements of the portfolio and have continued to find a shortfall in the amount of cash held in prior years. Our assessment of the shortfall in the cash position for 31 March 2010 has altered since our last report due to the finalisation of our investigation to a number of transactions. As a result, the total of cash holdings noted on investor statements has increased by $6.5 million". 7th Grant Thornton Report - Hubbard Management Funds

In the years from 2007 to 2010 there were shortfalls in cash ranging from just over $12 million to almost $25 million. These shortfalls were not entered into HMF accounts and were only uncovered after the Grant Thornton audit. This is likely to be one of the scenarios that the more serious charges of fraud were based on, brought by the SFO against Mr Hubbard.

Hubbard supporters have made suggestions to Grant Thornton that Hubbard's assets could be used to offset losses investors have been subject to thus far but as the Thornton Report points out many of the assets that Hubbard "personally" owns are either subject to promises made to other parties as security or are compromised in some other way either in value or the ability to realise cash easily. In short it is complicated and any promise made by Hubbard to use his own assets to offset loses must be put in the context of other promises made in similar circumstances across other parts of the Hubbard empire that have thus far failed to live up to (because of the impaired nature of the assets), well, his promises.

This 7th Grant Thornton Report on HMF continues along the lines of prior GT reports and uncovers yet more detail as to what has been going on at HMF specifically and adds to the larger picture of a man who was clearly out of control, reckless with others money and willing to do just about anything to dig himself out of the hole he had dug for himself.

I am surprised there have only been 50 charges brought by the SFO.

Allan Hubbard Saga

Full SFO Statement on SCF Fraud Investigation

Hubbard Letter to Simon Power

Download Grant Thornton Report 1
Download Grant Thornton Report 2
Download Grant Thornton Report 3
Download Grant Thornton Report 4
Download Grant Thornton Report 5
Download Grant Thornton Report 6
Download Grant Thornton Report 7 - Aorangi Securities
Download Grant Thornton Report 7 - Hubbard Management Funds

Join the Put Allan Hubbard Away Facebook Group

Allan Hubbard Saga: 7th Grant Thornton Report - Aorangi Securities
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Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard to Face Fraud Charges
Adam Feely on Hubbard Fraud Charges
Allan Hubbard Saga: Answers to Investor's Frequently Asked Questions
Allan Hubbard Saga: Still Feral After All These Years
Allan Hubbard Saga: Sixth Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard looks set to cop a plea
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters Risk Legal Action
Allan Hubbard Saga: Mental Challenge
Allan Hubbard Saga: Hubbard Defiant in 2011
Book Review: Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time, by Virginia Green
Allan Hubbard Saga: VIDEO - Hubbard Biographer Virginia Green on TVNZ's Breakfast
Book Extract - Allan Hubbard: Man Out of Time
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 3, The Final Cut
Allan Hubbard Saga: Going Feral - Part 2
Allan Hubbard Saga: Paul Carruthers Goes Feral... Again
Allan Hubbard: The Biography
Allan Hubbard Saga: On Forged Signatures and Uncharitable Trusts
Allan Hubbard Saga: Evidence of Fraud now Clear
Allan Hubbard Saga: NBR VS the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: South Canterbury Finance to be investigated by the SFO
Allan Hubbard Saga: Third Grant Thornton Report
Allan Hubbard Saga: Will He Walk?
Allan Hubbard Saga: No Longer Bothered by Botherway
Allan Hubbard Saga: 60 Minutes Interview, Sept 23 2010
Allan Hubbard Saga: Supporters head to the exit door
Allan Hubbard Saga: Threats & the Mysterious PWC Report
Allan Hubbard Supporters: Conflict of Interest
VW Veneer reveals BMW heart
VIDEO: Jenni McManus Explains Allan Hubbard Collapse
Allan Hubbard Statement on SCF Receivership
VIDEO: Sandy Maier - full news conference on SCF Receivership
Market Alert: South Canterbury Finance to be placed in Receivership
Allan Hubbard: Ignorant Supporters Blissfully Unaware
Thornton Report 2: Allan Hubbard Guilty as Charged
Allan Hubbard: Full TV3 Interview - July 16 2010
Thornton Report 1: Allan Hubbard's Aorangi Securities
Bothered by Simon Botherway



c Share Investor 2011





Sunday, July 3, 2011

Share Investor's Total Returns: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd

I have written about returns for stocks on a general basis in the Long Term View series of posts and the Long VS Short series but in this series, Share Investor's Total Returns, I will be giving my actual returns for stocks in the Share Investor Portfolio for as long as I have held them.

The return calculation will include dividends earned along with qualifying tax credits and of course any capital increase in the share price. It will be a total return over the length of holding of the share expressed in overall dollar figures with an individual value per share of what the stock currently is held at.

The eleventh stock in this particular series is one of a number of retailing stocks in the portfolio, one of the best performers and one that I have held for 3 years, Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd [HLG.NZX]

The current holding of 1000 was kicked off by an initial purchase in July 2008.

The stock cost a total of $2560.00. It has returned net dividends of $743.72 and total tax credits of $350.02, with $30.00 in brokerage.

I am eligible for the full tax credit so if the gross dividend (net dividend plus tax credits)is added and brokerage taken off my full return from dividends and tax credits over the total holding period of 3 years is $1063.74

The current capital value of the company in the Share Investor Portfolio as at 1 July 2011 is $3640.00. The capital gain therefore is $1050.00. This gives a total return on this share of $2113.74 when dividends and tax credits are included. This is a 82.5% return over 3 years or a 27.5% gain per annum.

I hold HLG therefore at a total cost of $446.26 or 44c per share at current market prices.


Disc: I own HLG shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Share Investor's Total Returns Series

Briscoe Group Ltd
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Fisher & Paykel Heathcare Ltd
Auckland International Airport Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Michael Hill International Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Sky City Entertainment Group Ltd
The Warehouse Group Ltd


Hallenstein Glasson @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Glassons Ltd: Should I stay or should I Go?
Mixed Retail Outlook
Long Term View: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
The History Of: Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Hallenstein Guidance not indicative of wider retail recovery
Stock of the Week: Hallenstein Glasson
Hallenstein Glasson Australian expansion needs expert execution
Why did you buy that stock? [Hallenstein Glasson]

Discuss HLG @ Share Investor Forum

Download HLG Company Reports
Download HLG Company History


Recommended Fishpond Reading

Crisis: One Central Bank Governor and the Global Financial Collapse

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2011