Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 4

After a Share Price Alert just two weeks ago on Contact Energy Ltd [CEN.NZX] where shares plunged 18c or 3.13% to $5.57c due to bad operational data and a loss of 20000 customers CEN shares have passed well below their previous support levels (see 3 year chart below) where the downside usually stops at around $5.50. Yesterday CEN closed trading at a 2 and a half year low of $5.32, a price not not seen since February 2009 when this stock started its trading trip where it has ebbed between around $5.50 and $6.50 per share.

The drops have been on much higher than average volumes.

There are rumours that majority owner Origin Energy Ltd [ORG.ASX] are keen to make a bid for the company and are mismanaging the company intentionally poorly so the share price is affected and they can come in and make a cheeky bid for the 47% odd of shares they do not already own. Its sounds an odd thing to do but nevertheless this rumour is currently doing the rounds for a number of good reasons that will remain between me and my keyboard.

This stock is looking more and more attractive everyday for the short term investor.

My last advice two weeks ago still stands to buy but with the added thought that there could be more bad news to come based on the share price drop so that could provide more opportunity for those that are patient.


Share Price Alert Series


The Warehouse Group Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd 3
Contact Energy Ltd 2
Xero Ltd 2
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 4
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 3
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 4
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 3
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd 2
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd

Contact Energy @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 3
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 5: Contact Energy Ltd
Origin Energy asset stripping Contact Energy
Stock of the Week - Reprise 4: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week - Reprise 3: Contact Energy Ltd
Long Term View: Contact Energy Ltd
Stock of the Week: Reprise 2 - Contact Energy
Stock of the Week: Reprise - Contact Energy
Not so fast Davy Boy
Still Watching Contact Energy
Beam me up Davy
Stock of the Week: Contact Energy
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - June 2009
MarketWatch: Contact Energy - Jan 2009
Contact Energy looks bright during dark times
Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Follow the Monopoly Board

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Download CEN Company Reports

The Warren Buffett Way by Robert G. Hagstrom Buy new: $19.54 / Used from: $12.94 Usually ships in 24 hours

c Share Investor 2011

My G'G' Generation

Economies and social norms go through cycles. Over generations peoples views change and are moulded by the things going on around them and the values and mood of the day.

If you look at fiscal responsibility and being savvy with money we need to look at a timeline to get an idea of what I am getting at and why there is hope for the current generation.

The generation that grew up during the Great Depression of the 1930s (I added the date because I know of a 17 year old who has no idea when it was and I know he is not alone) and learnt lessons during dark economic times which positively shaped their attitude to life and finances; they lived within a budget, were entrepreneurial, saved money and propelled the global economy from the 1950s to the early 1970s like no time before in modern history.

Skip forward to the generation my parents grew up in, the baby boomer generation, and by sheer numbers alone they swept everything up before them. They seemed to have learnt little from their struggling parents who brought the boomer generation up in the unprecedented good times and proceeded in the 1970s - till now really because of their sheer numbers, to go on an orgy of drugs, sex, debt, share buying, house buying and then more house buying all on an orgy of credit (and took some of my generation along with them) and it is clear that the economy has suffered (in the 1990s and now) as a result of their carelessness with money, failure to live within their means and their arrogance of numbers.

My generation, generation X, who grew up in the 1980s and 90s are a bit confused when it comes to finances. We got the crumbs from the table of the boomers so some of us learnt early on that we must forge out on our own because "nobody owes us a living" and we just have to do it ourselves. Parallel to that though, we also had some of my generation that thought people like me owed them a living and decided to drop out of the competitive environment, seek welfare and stay on it and bleed the economy dry. Those tough times at home and abroad really shaped me and others as entrepreneurs and savers and will lead to a more sound, rational and sustainable economy - at least for the medium term - during our time at the head of the table. Forget about the other part of my generation, we will deal with them at some other stage...nah, lets just cut the mothers off!

I have much more hope for the generations that were born in the 1980s to early 2000s though and my baby who is two years old (I am a late starter - see above re boomers) .They are growing up in economic times that are second only to the Great Depression and lessons learnt from some of my generation and what they are experiencing now will shape these kids into the same sorts of people that were born out of the 1930s. Highly independent, fiercely entrepreneurial and able to live within a budget.

It is looking good for the future.

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NEW - From Fishpond.co.nz | Think Bigger, By Michael Hill

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c Share Investor 2011

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 3

When we last looked at New Zealand Refining Ltd [NZR.NZX] back in May 2011 its shares were trading at $4.50 and its prospects at that time were starting to look better as oil prices continued to climb and refining margins increased.

In June 2010 I picked the stock at $3.10 for the same reasons as stated above.

Yesterday the NZR finished trading at $3.72 for the day after reaching $3.50 2 weeks ago and a 52 week high of $5.20 in late February.

It seems the market was not enamored of the NZR Throughput and Margin Report for March-April 2011 out early June which showed that a 10 day outage of some crucial plant impacted on margins. This is a temporary outage though and margins have since been restored.

This is a good opportunity to get in while the stock price is low and even though global oil prices are under some pressure the price per barrel is unlikely to fall much lower considering demand from Asia.

This stock was in the 2011 Share Investor Stock Picks at $3.95.

NZR 5 year margin & throughput report

*A heads up to Share Investor Blog reader Phillip for informing me of the drop in NZR. I would buy Phillip.


Share Price Alert Series

New Zealand Refining Ltd 2
Port of Tauranga Ltd
Freightways Ltd 3
Goodman Fielder Ltd 2
Freightways Ltd 2
Telecom New Zealand Ltd 2
Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Charlies Group Ltd
Fletcher Building Ltd 2
Contact Energy Ltd
Steel & Tube Ltd
Telecom New Zealand Ltd
New Zealand Stock Exchange Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd 2
The Warehouse Group Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd 2
Fletcher Building Ltd
Restaurant Brands Ltd
Mainfreight Ltd
Tourism Holdings
Goodman Fielder Ltd
Pumpkin Patch Ltd
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd
NZ Refining Ltd
Freightways Ltd
Xero Ltd


NZR @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: New Zealand Refining Ltd 2
Share Price Alert: NZ Refining Ltd
Share Investor's 2011 Stock Picks
Stock of the Week - Reprise: NZ Refining Ltd
Chart of the Week: New Zealand Refining Ltd
Stock of the Week: NZ Refining Ltd

Discuss NZR @ Share Investor Forum
Download NZR Company Reports




 Think Bigger, By Michael Hill

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c Share Investor 2011

Charlies Group Ltd: Asahi make takeover offer

What was looking likely all along has happened to Charlies Group Ltd [CHA.NZX] this morning. An offer has been made for full control of the company by 
Asahi Beverages New Zealand Limited, whose parent company is Asahi Group Ltd [2502:JP], the Japanese brewing and drinks giant.

The offer made this morning is 44c which is 16c or 57% higher than its trading close of 28c last Friday. Directors have given their full support for the takeover and it is likely that shareholders will accept given the significant premium over the market price.

Asahi have obviously seen the positive progress of the company over the last year or so and the distribution channels (1, 2) that they have opened up in Australia recently would compliment their Schweppes Australia softdrink business and also open up further shelf space for Charlies products.



Investors only have to ask themselves if they think current management would be able to add the same value that Asahi will do for the Charlies brand and how long they would take to do that and therefore propel the share price to the level of thew Asahi offer.

Depending on your long-term outlook for the company, the offer looks like a good one for the short to medium term shareholder and will be a good cash boost for the founders of the company Marc Ellis and Stephan Lepionka.


Charlies was a pick at 17.5c in Share Investors 2011 Stock Picks.


Takeover Documents

Charlies Group @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Charlies Group Ltd
Share Investor Q & A: Charlies Group CEO Stefan Lepionka
Chart of the Day: Charlies Group Ltd
Charlies Group: A Triumph of Style over Substance
Charlies juicing through Shareholder cash

Discuss CHA @ Share Investor Forum





c Share Investor 2011