Thursday, August 16, 2007

Market Musings on the NZX

Market watchers in North America and Europe may well be asleep as I write this. If you were down in this part of the world you would be watching your portfolio drop once again after NZX investors took their lead from you who are asleep at present. The NZX is down 60 points as I write with the ASX down 165.

Image result for Market Musings on the NZX

My portfolio is down almost 20% from this years highs and the bulk of that drop has been in the last two weeks.

Fear has gripped our market and our dollar cross with the US dollar has fallen from an all time high of over 81c to less than 70c as I write because foreign investors are moving their Kiwi investments offshore for "safer" risks.

I am not selling and will not sell but my main problem at the moment is when to buy more of what I already hold. There are 4 stocks out of the 11 that I hold that have fallen below their original purchase price but they seem to becoming cheaper and cheap by the day. I wait with my finger poised on the buy button on my computer screen.

One stock I am looking at more closely, now that the Summerset Retirement float has been cancelled today, is my holding in Ryman Healthcare (RYM) the Retirement home operator. It is looking tasty but could go lower.

Opportunities also abound in NZs Blue chips. Telecom New Zealand(TEL) is due a 14c dividend soon and is trading well down. Fletcher Building (FBU) has been given a right troweling as of late, with a 23c dividend due and Sky City Casino (SKC) has its chips down a few days before their full year announcement on Monday 21 August.

Auckland International Airport (AIA) has news that just over 6% of its shares have been purchased by Infratil (IFT) in conjunction with a Government Retirement fund, a potential blocker of a merger between AIA and Dubai International Aerospace. Strangely AIA shares are up today.

Steel and Tube (STU) the steel maker and supplier, have announced a 10% profit decrease today on increased business costs and increased revenue. A 14c dividend waits in the wings for STU shareholders.

Fisher and Paykel Appliances(FPA) has announced that they are moving their electronics division to Thailand. It will share a factory roof with the washer division that announced plans to move there earlier this year. 96 jobs will go from South Auckland with a saving to FPA of 6 million dollars.

Meanwhile the Labour Government is in trouble with its voters because the partially State owned and listed airline , Air New Zealand (AIR) has been carrying Australian troops to get them to theatres of war in the Middle East, something that cuts against the beliefs of Labour ministers and a minority of over vocal New Zealanders. The share price landed sharply.

On a much lighter and perhaps tasty note, for the third day in a row Burger Fuel(BFW) has failed to trade.



www.shareinvestorforum.com





  c Share Investor 2007





Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Telecom New Zealand Hangs Up.

Telecom New Zealand's [TEL.NZ] profit announcement last week reveals a company in gradual decline.

There are many reasons for this, not the least of them being the fact that management have always had a siege mentality to competition, that is, they tended to respond to rivals in a reactive rather than a proactive way. Their customers suffered on monetary and service levels simply because Telecom's monopoly position allowed them to do so.

When Government moved to untangle their monopoly their shortcomings were revealed to a greater extent than we already knew. Overwhelming arrogance seemed to be the order of the day.

Underspending in infrastructure over the last 18 years has left the company in a position where it now would have to spend multi billions just to get their networks and infrastructure up to speed to present day technology so they could offer their customers anything close to high speed broadband or mobile technologies that allow modern fast content.

The shortsightedness of the past seems to pervade Telecom's culture to the core. I say this because the companies answer to falling profits and revenue in the fixed line business was to sell the Yellow Pages unit to a Canadian Pension Fund for NZ$ 2.2B earlier this year. Roughly half of the proceeds will be dispersed to shareholders.

The Yellow Pages unit was one of Telecoms most profitable divisions, contributing over $200M in before tax profit and set to increase revenue and profit in years to come. The new owners have increased their own advertising for their product and are concentrating on growing their online presence.

As a business owner myself I would be ditching declining businesses rather than flogging off the most profitable.

To be sure $2.2 B is a nice little wedge of moola but it is a short sighted of management not to look towards its future in a more considered manner.

Most of Telecoms other businesses are either mature or near maturity. Fixed line is in decline, Mobile is reaching saturation and "Broadband" or what Telecom call broadband is constrained by their 19th century copper wire outlook in a 21st century world.

Lessons that should have been learned in the 1990s: lack of investing back in the business, slow to respond to competition etc, still haven't reached managements brain stems and look unlikely to do so unless coerced by Government intervention.

Management even suggested last week that Taxpayers should fund the badly needed infrastructure needed if New Zealanders "...wanted broadband quicker...".

For a communications company, Telecom New Zealand are not communicating the right message. Its customers continue to get an engaged signal and its clear message to the public at large is that they just don't care.


Telecom NZ @ Share Investor

Telecom NZ: TV3 60 Minutes Segment more like Corporporate spin
Telecom Share Price Limbos but has it jumped the Shark?
Telecom NZ: Saint Gattung gets her Ya Ya's out
Telecom NZ: Bye Bye Paul Reynolds
Long Term View: Telecom NZ Ltd
Stock of the Week: Telecom Ltd
Revisiting Telecom

Getting cute and fluffy with Teresa Gattung
Telecom NZ Hangs up
Business Gobbledygook puts up barriers to communication
A Rare Breed
Telecom NZ facing a watershed period
Biology a major key in "glass ceiling" for women
Telecom rewards Gattung for mediocrity

Download every available TEL Annual Report Free


Discuss this stock at Share Investor Forum - Register free

Recommended Amazon Reading

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A    Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy Bird on a Wire & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2007 & 2010

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Global Credit Squeeze: There is no Free Lunch

The current news about what is being called the "global credit squeeze" has got me thinking.

Like every other man and his dog I have a few things to say about the subject. The implications for share markets, lending between banks and institutions involved directly with dodgy loans and those invested in companies holding those loans have been crystal clear over the last two weeks.

Market participants have reacted in a highly negative way which has spread fear and some loathing amongst the investing community. As I commented a few days ago, I and nobody else is entirely sure about how bad the squeeze is, but we will find out soon enough. What is clear though is that we are talking multi billions of dollars of losses.

Banks and other lenders have been lending money to people who cant afford it and surprise surprise they cant pay it back.

In New Zealand we have already had a local taste already of what is currently happening globally, with several finance companies exposed to risky loans going belly up and investors in those finance companies being out of pocket.

Globally though, with the exception of countries like New Zealand and Australia, State financed backing has been pumped into the banking sector to "increase liquidity" and stem the flow of losses on financial markets.

Now I do understand how this happened but what I cant begin to fathom are the details and what this means in detail: how these taxpayer funded "loans" get paid back, how much if any interest is charged and what happens if the banks and institutions getting these state funds cant pay the loans back because the losses they are exposed to are greater than they have let on?

So many questions I have huh?

I feel uneasy about the billions being "lent" to institutions in the first place to prop up their liquidity problems. Surely they should just take the hit for writing bad loans to begin with and then either fold or move on the wiser and not expose themselves again. After all the guy living next door to you ain't going to bail you out if you cant meet the mortgage payment.

In my humble opinion ,I think the interventions by the likes of the US, European and Asian States have merely postponed the inevitable and the interventions overwhelm the problem it was originally trying to ameliorate. These over extended banks with cash flow problems will take big hits anyway and interventions by governments meddling in money markets are just going to end the way most government intervention does.

Badly.

One thing is very clear though. Regardless of whether banks pay back taxpayer money or not. Giving away your equity like this does have a material effect somewhere. There is always a downside when money is "lent" without it being worked for.

We are talking large sums here and we probably haven't seen the end it it.

Hang on.


Related Share Investor Reading

Market outlook flat to uncertain during 2009-2010
Market Meltdown: I can smell the fear from here
Don't dare use the "D" word
Stockmarket set for discontent Summer & Winter
Strap yourself in baby
Will the Stalactites hold?
Global Credit Squeeze: There is no free lunch


Shareinvestorforum.com - Discuss this topic


Recommended Amazon Reading


The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A     Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
Usually ships in 24 hours

Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond


c Share Investor 2007



Burger Fuel: Beefing up store numbers

Image result for burger fuel


Your favourite search topic on the Share Investor Blog is "Burger Fuel" and far be if from me to care about being labeled a populist, but never mind I will wear that label with pride as long as the readers keep coming.

Here is a BFW update in week 3 of the companies listing on the NZAX.

Sellers are queuing up now at way below the NZ$ 1 IPO price with sellers at .80c and the first buyer at 60c , although 60c clearly values the company too high. No trades as yet today.

Getting closer to my entry price of below 30c but still no cigar.

News out today also that BFW have opened their 22nd store in Tauranga. Good on them for doing so and I hope the surfies down there get the munchies as often as they can, so as to frequent their local burger bar and boost the BFW share price.

It could definitely use the help.


Burger Fuel Worldwide @ Share Investor

Burgerfuel: Dubai Marketing Hype!!!
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Analysis
Burger Fuel 2010 Full Year Profit Preview
Burger Fuel Worldwide: 2009 Half Year profit analysis
Stock of the Week: Burger Fuel Worldwide
Download full company analysis from Thomson First-Call
Burger Fuel doesn't rule out capital raising
Burger Fuel Worldwide: Closer look at Company Accounts
Analysis - Burger Fuel Worldwide: FY profit to 31/03/09
Burger Fuel: Running on Empty
Burger Fuel leaves investors hungryBurger Fuel management cagey over company progress
Burger Fuel cooks up Dubai deal
NZX share trades with strings attached
Don't buy Burger Fuel, yet
Burger Fuel: Inside info?
Burger Fool IPO: Burger Fool?
Exclusive Interview with Burger Fuel's Josef Roberts
Burger Fuel's Daytime drama
Burger Fuel share price out of gas
Beefing up store numbers
Director explains share price drop
Burger Fuel slims down in value
Burger Fuel and Coke
Marketing Burger Fuel's future
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Burger Fuel results and commentary

Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free




Share Investor 2007