Given the recent increase in the Kiwi dollar since this article about Fisher & Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZ] was written in May and published elsewhere, I thought I would update it.
In May the scenario was as follows.
So Fisher and Paykel(FPA) are moving their NZ washing division to Thailand and closing down their operation in South Auckland. So what.
It is very sad that semi-skilled workers in a low wage area no longer have work and that a New Zealand company long imbued with a kiwi badge will now be slapped together by a man or woman that may have paddled a boat or cycled to to work. Is it really a surprise or something out of the ordinary? Well, quite frankly no.
While the left of Lenin media and every two-bit polly and union rep have a go with their own wide of the mark opinion, blaming the F & P move on a high dollar and high costs the fact is that F & P have never been competitive but are now being forced to by the market reality of cheap well constructed and better designed appliances coming from the very places that Fishers are now moving to.
There may be incentives layed at the feet of companies like F & P to go to far flung areas where labour is cheaper than a life but it is just a market reality that this kiwi company has finally faced. You cannot compete with huge white ware companies on the small scale that F & P do. You are either a niche player with a product that commands a premium and those days are now over for Fishers or you ramp up production and compete on cost. F & P don't have scale so they will struggle in that market as well.
It is a natural progression in any capitalist nation for a business to want to cut costs at every opportunity. If that means moving the business to another town or across the world to another country then must needs must.
While it is clear that Government has driven up the dollar with wasteful and profligate spending it is also even clearer that govt could do one thing to not only keep current industry here but bring more manufacturing from abroad. No tax breaks from govt lackeys trying to pick winners, no incentives for this and that. Cut corporate tax to 10%.
The Irish have found for the last 10 years that this works. In a similar sad position themselves, as we are now, 1 million kiwis living overseas and the same amount on welfare, the far scattered Irish came back home and the success of their economy is the stuff of legend.
The moaners need to stop moaning. Central and local govt need to butt out of business and that means stealing well needed capital through high taxes and compliance costs must end. Govt is not the answer to the problem here ,it is the reason
It would behove the mass business media to focus on the real story here. The answer is not more welfare, this time for business, the answer is lower costs, regardless of a "high dollar".
Three months on, in August, Fisher and Paykel's share price has dropped further and margins will have been squeezed even more.
The good news for the company though is that the factory in Thailand will be closer to completion and therefore we will see a more competitive base for them to compete with the high volume producers.
Likewise the Kiwi dollar looks to be on a turn and with in conjunction with the cheaper production costs the savings will go straight to the bottom line.
Of course steel and other commodity prices have risen further still but Gary Paykel's shift to Asia means this will have less of a consequence than if they had remained bogged down in South Auckland.
Related Share Investor Reading
Fisher & Paykel: A tale of Two Companies
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c Share Investor 2007
Tuesday, August 7, 2007
Fisher & Paykel Appliances: In a Spin over nothing
Posted by Share Investor at 9:27 PM 0 comments
Labels: Fisher and Paykel Appliances
Monday, August 6, 2007
Government Market Manipulation - AIA/DAE Airport Deal
The comment today by Phil Goff, that his Labour Government was not in favour of Auckland International Airport(AIA)being merged with Dubai Aeronautical Enterprise(DAE) was either cunning or utterly moronic.
Regardless of motivation, the result was almost 5% being wiped off the share price today.
Institutions with this sort of sway, especially Governments, would be wise not to meddle in markets of any kind. We know this always ends in disaster.
Recent Government meddling in the New Zealand Share Market has seen "inopportune" comments made to markets by Prime Minister Helen Clarke, then one of her ministers, over Air New Zealand(AIR)and at least two ministers regarding Telecom (TEL) with resultant losses for New Zealand Share Holders.
New Zealands' Minister of Finance, Micheal Cullen (incidentally a Dr of History not economics)has also tried to influence the Kiwi Dollar by making negative comments about our economy. In tandem with Cullen our Reserve Bank thought they knew more about trading Forex than the likes of Warren Buffett, they tried to undermine our currency by selling the Kiwi and lost millions and the dollar increased by more than 5c against the Greenback within weeks and Buffetts' warchest got just bigger.
Today's negative comments about AIA and the Governments lack of backing were at best reckless naivety and at worst designed to lose market speculators in AIA stock money.
New Zealand doesnt own the Airport, it is owned by shareholders, Auckland and Manukau City Councils own a minority stake and like individual shareholders it is up to them whether they sell their property. Not those in Government who don't know or care about business and private property rights.
To use its privileged position to influence markets to their desired outcome/s is not only dishonest but shows a complete disregard for the way markets are supposed to work.Governments opposition to the AIA/DAE deal should have been made at the appropriate time, that is, at the conclusion of the Commerce Commissions decision. Never before.
Individuals and those in the Financial Industry, if caught, face penalties for market manipulation. Phil Goff should face censure and fines brought on it by the NZX or the Commerce Commission or both but is, as usual, unlikely to face any censure.
Mainstream Media have been, as usual, quiet on the subject.
Posted by Share Investor at 7:42 PM 0 comments
Labels: Auckland Airport Merger, government, share market manipulation
Friday, August 3, 2007
Time for Retirement?
Two new Retirement Home Village operators are going to list on the NZX in the next few months. Last week AMP announced the floating of their Retirement unit and today ING have announced that their two village's are on the block for a float to the public.
When these two operators are listed it will bring the number of listed retirement home operators to four.
These IPOs' are part of a wave of activity sweeping the retirement village sector.
CVC Partners said last month that it was looking at selling Guardian Healthcare and Goldman Sachs JBWere's private equity unit is rumoured to be looking to float, sell or raise new capital for its Vision Senior Living group.
The two IPO's also have a connection of sorts. NZ First Capital, who are floating Summerset and Forsyth Barr, who is floating ING's retirement unit, got together to float the abysmal IPO failure, Feltex, a few years ago. Reminders of overvaluations , high debt and creative accounting still resound in the investment community from that fiasco.
The ING groups' village's are by far the smallest by number of units at around 150 with only two properties, while AMPs' Summerset has 11 village's and over 1500 occupants.
ING are asking for $NZ100m while AMP are looking at 300m.
Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ], the biggest listed Retirement operator, has a market cap of over 1B and Metlifecare[MET.NZ]around 700m.
Ryman Healthcare has today just reiterated its profit growth for the current year at around 20%. It has been growing at this rate for many years and seems confident that it will grow at this rate for years to come.
At first glance AMP's Summerset looks like a great opportunity to get into this industry, which is growing rapidly as the population gets older. How good the offer really is will only become fully apparent as we get a look at the prospectus in a few weeks time. Until then we can reserve judgement.
On the other hand the ING offer I have some problems with. While ING is a highly reputable company, the track record of some of the participants may give cause for some restraint before plunking down your moola. Colin Reynolds was the head of the pyramid "property development" company Chase Corp which went bust in the 1980s, while Robin Congreve was involved with Fay Richwhite during the Winebox tax fiasco. Beware.
One of their villages is also 20 years old so may need some capital to fix up the paintwork and spruce up the surroundings and decor for the 21st century.
The retirement sector looks set for good growth for some years to come. With good margins and rapidly increasing and also affluent population. The baby boomers, when they do decide to relinquish their hold on the rest of us, will provide a mini-boom in this industry in 10-15 years.
The added bonus of consolidation as the players in this sector get more numerous is an added attraction. Currently the majority of retirement home living is being done by individual owners of villages, that is, operators owning just one village. Good assets are always up for sale.
Of course no investment is without risk and the retirement sector, like every other one, cannot continue to grow unabated the way it has. It will have its ups and downs.
Post prospectus of AMPs' Summerset, if the figures and management look good, I am going to buy as much as I can. If it is the golden egg that I think it is then demand is going to far outstrip supply.
Burger Fuel eat your heart out.
DISCLOSURE I own Ryman Healthcare shares
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Stocks on my Watchlist: Metlifecare Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? Ryman Healthcare
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Buy new: $9.72 / Used from: $6.67
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c Share Investor 2007
Posted by Share Investor at 7:17 PM 0 comments
Labels: AMP, Guaradian Healthcare, ING, IPO, Metlifecare, retirement villages, Ryman Healthcare, Summerset
Thursday, August 2, 2007
Burger Fuel's Daytime Drama
In the daytime soap opera that is the recent Burger Fuel(BFW)IPO, its first week as a listed company would have had it cancelled after its first episode.
After 5 days less than $NZ 10000.00 of stock has changed hands. In one day it was the NZX's biggest loser, the share price dropped 20% to 80c , on turnover of less than $1000.00. The very next day the show was resurrected, it was the NZ Share Market's biggest gainer, moving 25% to the previous high of one Kiwi Dollar-incidentally its listing price.
This moved the company Chairman to make a media comment:
"Company chairman Peter Brook said not much could be read into the share price change because there was very little liquidity in the stock.
"There are just not the shares out there to buy. I think if you wanted to buy 30,000 or 35,000 you would be paying $1.20 per share," he said".
Post listing media briefings from Burger Fuel have been strangely episodic when compared to life before the Burger Fuel listing and media circus kicked off but Brook was retrained in his comments. I mean fancy saying this "...not much could be read into the share price change...". Actually unless you have the mute button on with your back to the big picture I think the combo of the share price drop and low liquidity is telling us lots. Simply that the IPO was overpriced and the market has little confidence in Burger Fuel's prospects.
Josef Roberts and his team now have to prove themselves to the market. They failed to convince at the IPO and this last week market viewers were not really tuning in.
Burger Fuel is today sitting at a share price of 1 dollar with no shares traded. This values the company at 60 Million Kiwi Dollars, only 30m odd dollars less than Restaurant Brands(RBD), the NZX's other Fast Food stock. Remember RBD have sales of 300m VS BFW's 16m odd but the Burger Fuel Company will get its income mostly from franchise fees of which were around 3.5m. Not delicious figures.
With less than a third of the capital originally hoped for Burger Fuel must now change their initial plans, expensively mapped out in the $1.5M prospectus, expanding with less haste and relying more on Franchisees to stump up capital to expand store numbers and promised "global reach". In itself probably a better model than their initial plan of the company using their own capital to open new stores then selling them off to Franchisees. One positive in the myriad of negatives that swirl around this company.
Keep watching, Burger Fuels stock will be in low rotation with re-runs of the same volatile share price and rare glimpses of its star players, its execs only venturing out when a positive spin is needed or indeed if there is actually the possibility of a 10 season run.
I have a feeling there might be a cancellation after the first 1 or 2.
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Discuss BFW @ Share Investor Forum - Register free
c Share Investor 2007
Posted by Share Investor at 5:45 PM 0 comments
Labels: BFW, Burger Fuel, Burger Fuel IPO, Restaurant Brands NZ