Showing posts with label mainfreight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mainfreight. Show all posts

Monday, October 5, 2009

Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid

Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] is a fledgling player in the global logistics business with an expanding footprint in the United States, Asia and an established presence in Australasia.

It has found the last year or so tough going 1, 2 , as other logistics companies also have, but has managed to keep a lid on their business costs by paring back on capital expenditure, freezing employee pay-packets and bonuses and paying very close attention to the day to day running of the business.

The company has a had a good history of expansion and profitability since it was founded with one truck by Bruce Plested in 1978 and as Don Braid has been on board since 1994 the company has grown considerably in revenue and profitability, has been listed publicly since 1996 and has found a foothold in Asia and the United States.

But what of the next 12 months and longer?

How will the business go under his leadership, will it continue its historically excellent financial results or will it flounder like so many other New Zealand companies have as it expands in the United States.

What new ideas does he have to take this company through the $1 billion revenue barrier and beyond and establish Mainfreight as a truly global logistics company

With this in mind I submitted some questions to Don via email and he kindly offered to answer them.

The Q & A


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Share Investor - Like other New Zealand companies 2008-2009 has been a tough year for Mainfreight. What have you learnt from the economic downturn in terms of the company’s strengths and weaknesses and has that made Mainfreight a stronger company?

Don Braid - We found an element of complacency and a lack of urgency, or even acknowledgment of a recession, amongst our people despite our disciplines and culture, which identified a need to encourage tougher, faster decision making and to seek out opportunities.

SI - What are your thoughts on the recession and recent (apparent) recovery - if you want to call it that - and what effect that will have on the company's overall strategy in all the markets that you operate?

DB - We continue to manage the business week to week focusing on margin and cost. Our sales campaigns are very active as we look to increase sales growth at every opportunity, attracting new customers with exceptional quality. We don’t wish to waste any of the opportunities provided by the recession.

SI - Have you responded to the recession in an appropriate way by cutting costs and easing back on business expansion when other companies have used this time as an opportunity to expand their businesses because of cheaper assets and lower credit costs?

DB - We identified our areas of weakness, tightened cost controls including freezing salaries and bonuses, and focused on the opportunities available. We have treated acquisition opportunities with caution; distressed businesses are not necessarily good investments.

SI - How is Mainfreight currently doing in its various markets of operation and how well are profit margins holding up?

DB - We can do better in each market, and are working hard to further improve returns.

SI - What are the biggest commercial threats to your businesses in terms of competition and is your reaction to this competition likely to be aggressive or reactive in nature?

DB - We have always operated in a competitive market and enjoy being on the front foot.

SI - Any business has inherent risks. How do you manage those risks in the normal business operating environment that changes due to economic cycles and other outside and inside influences?

DB - Mainfreight’s culture of weekly profit and loss reporting, branch management responsibility and flat management structure assists us in managing risk. We scrutinise performance at every turn and maintain a strong discipline of cash management.

SI - The subsidy of Toll Holdings trucking business by the New Zealand taxpayer has reared its ugly head again recently. Can you do anything about that in your position and if so what?

DB -We will compete as we always have. We will continue to bring pressure to bear on the Government to ensure KiwiRail deals with the issue commercially. We are also of the opinion that the Government should appoint a commercially capable board rather than the current culture of political appointees.

SI - What are your biggest challenges as the company expands and do you prefer organic expansion rather than the purchase of companies to pursue revenue and profit growth?

DB - Organic growth is always the preference; acquisitions when and only if they fit the profile and requirements of the Group. Great people remain our most valuable resource.

SI - The issue of capital raising by other companies this year has been in the business news headlines. Why have you been able to avoid this to date and do you see the issue of capital raising being an issue for Mainfreight at a later stage should the economic downturn last longer?

DB - There has been no need to raise capital. Our debt to equity ratio is satisfactory and our relationship with our banks remains important to managing our debt facilities. These facilities have just been renewed for a further three years with improved covenants.

SI - Mainfreight pays a relatively low dividend compared to other NZX listed companies. Is that a conscious decision to keep more capital in the business for its day to day operation or are there other reasons for this?

DB - On listing in 1996 we stated that a dividend payment ratio of 40% to 50% of net profit is prudent, and allowed for further capital reinvestment. While at times we have exceeded this ratio we do wish to continue to re-invest in our business. Growth remains a high priority.

SI - What is your opinion on bonuses paid with stock options and other incentive pay and how do you feel about executives of other NZX listed companies receiving incentives even though pre-determined targets have not been met?

DB - We are not in a position to comment on remuneration in other listed companies. Ours continues to be reviewed to ensure we remain competitive and fair.

SI - Given enough time and expansion in the United States, where will be your main hubs and will you continue to build and own them given the huge capital expense they must be?

DB - The US remains an important part of our growth strategy and we are excited about the potential evident in this market. Capital investment will be evaluated and tailored to the returns available.

SI - The US market has been brutal to a couple of NZX listed companies, with Pumpkin Patch and Michael Hill recently losing lot of shareholder money by expanding there. How has your company planned to ameliorate any possible losses there as you expand and do you have an exit strategy if business there doesn’t look good or are you confident that in the long term the Mainfreight’s business there will be a strong one?

DB - We remain confident that our US operations will become significant contributors and a beachhead for our ongoing global development.

SI - How do you retain the wonderful family friendly Mainfreight culture that has been fostered over the years and is so central to the success of the company as it has moved from a smaller company to the one that it is now and how will you hold on to it as you grow into a larger business and into different markets and cultures?

DB - Our culture and style of doing business remains very important to us. Every day we work hard to maintain and develop this culture. The actions of our leadership team are key. The elimination and rejection of bureaucracy and hierarchical attitudes and actions at every step are paramount. Our people’s freedom to take responsibility, ownership and to contribute no matter their role is pivotal to our success.

SI - Along the lines of the question above, how much input does every worker at Mainfreight have into the business, is it like the culture at Toyota, commonly known as the “Toyota Way” where if anyone has a good idea that will improve productivity or the business in some way then they are credited for that input and rewarded in some way?

DB - As above.

SI - Who came up with those quotes on the back of all your vehicles and why?

DB - Many people contribute to the quotations, however Bruce Plested initiated the original concept. We hope the quotations make people think about what’s important in life. They also allow our owner drivers to express themselves through their chosen quotations.

SI - You and Bruce Plested are both very strong leaders and characters, how do you balance those strong personalities when you make company decisions?

DB - We enjoy a great deal of debate, we have respect for each other and a passion for the business. What is right for the business is key – the individual’s agenda is not a consideration.

SI- Who are some of your business mentors/heroes and why?

DB - Mainfreight’s Board of Directors remain key mentors and confidants.

SI - Who is your favourite New Zealand business leader/s and why?

DB - We have a lot of respect for many New Zealand business leaders; more so those business leaders who are forthright in their opinions, and who are energetic in growing their businesses and their people. Those who reject mediocrity and bureaucracy, and who are prepared to get off their backsides and develop their businesses around the world.

SI - In relation to the two questions above are there any particular books or periodicals that you have read that you would recommend to Share Investor readers?

DB - “Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap … and Others Don’t” – Jim Collins

SI - In my investing experience I have found the level of business leadership in New Zealand wanting – with a few very notable exceptions - when it comes to making good long-term decisions based on sound business skills, the basic understanding of running a business and accountability when it comes to making mistakes and this is often reflected in businesses hiring from an overseas talent pool. What are your views on how we can get better shareholder representation in the boardroom?

DB - New Zealand business needs leaders around the board table who have a passion for the business, are energetic and prepared to get involved, are commercial in their thinking and are not just appointed as part of “the club”. Political appointments have no place in New Zealand’s business future.

SI - Is there enough long-term thinking and planning when it comes to making decisions in the boardroom that affect New Zealand companies?

DB - Infrastructure planning in this country is woeful. Three-year political appointments don’t help. Entities would be better served by boards who spend less time on plans and budgets, focusing instead on strategic and competitive advantage to drive businesses (and the country) forward.

SI - I have recently become a dad for the first time and am now aware of higher demands on my time. I am sure the life of managing director at Mainfreight is very busy. How have the demands of Mainfreight impacted on your family and what skills as a dad have you used in your business life and where and how do you find the balance between home and work? Is it just good time management?

DB - A passion for life helps to keep things in perspective. Always ask a busy person if you want to get things done!

SI - What do you see as the strongest and weakest quality of your leadership style?

DB - Am not qualified enough to answer.

SI - Where do you see yourself and the business you help run over the next five years?

DB - Mainfreight will be a bigger and better business than it is today. We have some lofty goals to achieve and we remain an ambitious bunch!

SI - Thanks for your time Don.


Don Braid's Bio - Supplied by Mainfreight

Don Braid, Group Managing Director of Mainfreight Limited, was educated at Timaru
Boys’ High School and has over 30 years’ experience in freight forwarding and logistics both New Zealand and internationally. He joined Daily Freightways in 1978, gaining a thorough grounding in all aspects of the business and eventually heading up that company.

In 1994 Mainfreight purchased the business, and Don went on to hold various senior management roles at Mainfreight prior to his appointment as Managing Director in 2000.

Don has led the Mainfreight team through a significant period of change and expansion to become the successful global supply chain logistics provider it is today, with businesses operating in over 160 branches throughout New Zealand, Australia, Asia and the United
States.

His efforts were recently recognised when he was selected as the 2008 Deloitte/Management magazine Executive of the Year. Don is a member of the Board of the Starship Foundation.


Mainfreight History- Supplied By Mainfreight

Mainfreight was founded by Bruce Plested, joined later by Neil Graham in 1978 with a 1969 Bedford JI Truck and $2,700 in paid up capital. Mainfreight entered a highly regulated market which required all freight travelling over 150km to be moved on rail, and which was dominated by a virtual cartel of giant transport companies.

When deregulation occurred in 1985 Mainfreight were hardened from this market environment, and was evolving a deep culture and a vision of what we could achieve. Having formed Mainfreight International in 1984, Mainfreight established a beachhead in Australia in 1989, with an operation in Sydney, followed the next years by depots in Melbourne and Brisbane.

Investment in Australia was driven by a vision to let our customers treat New Zealand and Australia as one market, with Mainfreight's spread of branches and services, along with the best technology and people providing a bridge across the water. Mainfreight was publicly listed in June 1996 on the NZ Stock exchange (code MFT) and now has interests in the USA and Asia.

Disclosure: I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio

Share Investor Q & As

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Sky City Entertainment: CEO Nigel Morrison discusses 2010 HY


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

Download Mainfreight Company Reports


Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times
Toughen Up: What I've Learned About Surviving Tough Times by Michael Hill 






c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid

Due to the popularity of the Q & A this week with Nigel Morrison, CEO of Sky City Entertainment Group [SKC.NZ] I have decided to make these things a semi regular thing at the Share Investor Blog.

One individual I have always wanted to put some questions to is Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] Managing Director Don Braid.

I have requested his time and he has kindly obliged to answer your questions.

So, now is the chance dear readers to put some questions to Don.

You can submit them at the Share Investor Forum here or email them to me here and I will submit the best ones to Don.

Disclosure: I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss this Company @ Share Investor Forum


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c Share Investor 2009

Friday, August 7, 2009

Beware of "Black October"

A recent market update by Kingfish Ltd [KFL.NZ] the listed portfolio management vehicle, got me thinking.

In this document they wax lyrical about how well share prices for the companies they hold have done well over the last quarter and they are right, they have done well.

Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] Freightways Ltd [FRE.NZ] Mainfrieght Ltd [MFT.NZ] Sky City Entertainment Group[SKC.NZ] and many others have stacked value on their share prices.

Sky City alone has gained over 40% since its recent $2.51 lows.

Kingfish have all these companies in their portfolio bar Sky City. I own them all in the Share Investor Portfolio.

But rather than reason to get excited if you are an investor with a shorter term horizon you are likely to get a bit of a shock in the back pocket, if stockmarket history is anything to go by.

The month of October is notoriously bad for global markets, the 1929 crash happened in October and so did the 1987 crash - the 2008 crash likewise. Even if you discount those three historical events October is just a bummer month for stocks, it is probably a psychological thing where historical events have self perpetuated into a down month.

Nevertheless it does happen and that month could be the time to start buying again. My wallet is firmly closed, for now.

Take care of yourselves, be careful when deciding to buy and make some money why don't ya.

See you soon.

Recent Share Investor Reading

Discuss this topic @ Share Investor Portfolio

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c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, July 23, 2009

I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods



I must have had some kind of brain explosion yesterday, something in my personal life made me drop my risk/reward guard and I ended up spending just over $35,000.00.

I have wanted to have a medium sized splurge on a few stocks for the last year or so and the life changing event yesterday allowed me to finally release the financial and mental rubber band and take that risk.

I have been chugging along buying small parcels of shares over the last year April 2009 | July 2009 | July 2008 | June 2008 | June 2008 | but yesterday ended up buying 7000 more The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ] shares and 1875 Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] shares at $4.20 per share, to take my holding to a nice round 5000 in the old Share Investor Portfolio.

I was tossing up between Mainfreight and Ryman Healthcare [RYM.NZ] and superior Mainfreight management, which I often obsess about, won me over.

I bought my original Mainfreight holding just over 2 years ago for just under 8 bucks, yes you read it right, 8 bucks. Over that holding period the stock has now cost me around $6.85 per share after dividends and tax credits are added, so that makes yesterday's purchase a bargain.

I am happy to hold at both prices.

** Photo & share purchase dedicated to my dear old Dad, who must be still driving a truck, wherever he is now, for the last 15 years!


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Mainfreight Ltd: Fully Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum



Amazon 

The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A             Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
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c Share Investor 2009

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch

If I didn't already run a business I would want to work at Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ].

I say this after reading yet another rather rip-roaring company report that you couldn't help being inspired and motivated by.

The cover of the A4 sized report has every employee's name printed on it, a rather unique idea that just shows how important Mainfreight's workers are to management and how integral they are to the sustained long term success of the company through its family culture.

Bruce Plested, Executive Chairman, has stressed a few poignant reasons why Mainfreight will be able to cope with the economic downturn:

(They have) "Committed people, hundreds of whom have been with Mainfreight for
between 10 and 30 years.

Internal promotion.

An ongoing graduate programme whereby we now have 286 university
qualified people spread through our business in New Zealand,
Australia, USA and China.

Compulsory in-house training for all new people in New Zealand and
Australia.

Weekly performance measurement in more than ten key activities –
in every branch in every country – produced at branch level.

Weekly branch profit reporting – produced at branch level at all
160 worldwide branches.

Ownership of many of our specialised operating sites.

Ever developing technology now standardised and integrated between
our branches in New Zealand, Australia, USA, China and Hong Kong.

Many thousands of great customers, who strive and innovate, who
work hard and are an integral part of our success."

Along with all the usual facts and figures a typical company report contains, there is inspirational company mantra that isn't merely empty verbiage and also a huge focus on the current economic climate, what the company is doing to ameliorate the effects of this downturn and how they see we can use this recession as an opportunity to change our direction as a country in a big way.

Bruce also goes on to add that New Zealand is a country slipping behind in the wealth stakes and we really need to do something to get off our butts and work to increase our productivity, something that has been holding the country back for nearly 40 years, but especially in the last 10.

He gives advice as follows that most people with at least half a brain would agree with:

"Why don’t the losers in the election go and get a job instead of the
futile debate they engage in, and the bureaucracy they carry?

Why not wipe the jury system for a wide range of crimes and let a
judge decide guilt or innocence?

What about a four-year electoral period to enable the development of
longer term strategies?

Instead of building new prisons let’s release enough inmates on a
regular basis to accommodate new offenders.

Let’s provide free university education for the skilled people we
need, i.e. doctors, scientists, teachers, engineers, if they fulfil certain
employment criteria in New Zealand.

Introduce capital gains taxes on sales of property other than the
family home.

Lower company tax to 10% or thereabouts. Nothing will boost our
economy more than nurturing our businesses. The tax will still be
earned by the Government, as dividends are taken.

If we really want a cycle track the length of New Zealand, why not
attempt to do it using volunteers, the unemployed, companies or just
challenge us to find a way.

Appoint successful young business people to serve on the boards of
SOEs, and other Government run organisations. As day follows night,
weak boards result in weak management and poor outcomes.

Don’t allow local bodies to own majority shareholdings in strategic
assets, i.e. ports, airports, electricity. Much of this monopolistic
structure is effectively bound in shackles through incompetent and
agenda driven boards."

He does muddy his economic waters a little by mentioning the economically illiterate Rob Muldoon and financial genious Roger Douglas in the same breath and commenting that we can learn things from them -in Muldoon's case what not to do (my emphasis).

Mostly good advice apart from a brain hemorrhage at the Prison system but great commentary that every third form economics student and every other company CEO should read.

I recommend that you have a read too.

Disc I own MFT shares

Download the 2009 Mainfreight Annual report here.

Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Mainfreight Ltd: Full Year 2010 Profit Analysis
Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

Download Mainfreight Company Reports



From Fishpond.co.nz

Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap...and Others Don't



c Share Investor 2009

Friday, May 29, 2009

Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09

Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] FY 2009 profit out today confirmed a slowdown in sales for the company and highlighted a tough environment for the coming 12 months. Having said that the current result was a good one.

Key Points:

1. Revenue increase of 39% to a record $NZ 1.27 billion (excluding forex gains up 28%)

2. Net surplus before abnormals of $NZ 40 million, on par with the prior year.

3. First half of year good growth, second very poor, indicating the full impact of the global slowdown, with a marked downturn in the last quarter.

4. A focus on cutting operating costs over the period of downturn in the business/economy.

5. A hat-tip to carbon emissions, noting they must take them into account because of political interference in this area of their business, but it is costing them.

6. Cashflow up strongly.

7. Debt increased significantly from $79.89 to $115.28 million.


The outlook for the company is uncertain and given poor economic indicators and a continued slowing performance in the latest quarter of business, profit is going to be down for the 2009/10 year.

They say this will be ameliorated somewhat by focusing on cost cutting, delaying capital expenditure and growing the business organically where they can - very sensible.

Given that the logistics business is one sector of the economy that is often badly affected during a recession, management at Mainfreight seemed to have managed the business well considering the slowdown in consumer demand world-wide and the resultant drop in export/import and local logistics being used in their operations worldwide.

8.5 out of 10 for me.

The stockmarket however has reacted negatively to this result, marking shares down 39c or 6.33% to NZ$4.59 at market close today.


Disclosure: I own MFT shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Mainfreight @ Share Investor

Long Term View: Mainfreight Ltd
Share Investor Interview: Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
Stock of the Week: Mainfreight Ltd
Questions to Mainfreight's MD Don Braid
I'm Buying: Mainfreight Management delivers the goods
Mainfreight Annual Report Packs a Punch
Analysis - Mainfreight Ltd: FY Profit to 31/03/09
Mainfreight VS KiwiRail: The Sequel
Long VS Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Why did you buy that stock? [Mainfreight Ltd]
Mainfreight 2008 Annual report worth reading
KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

Discuss MFT @ Share Investor Forum

Download Mainfreight Company Reports


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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A            Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
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Buy new: $14.95 / Used from: $7.50
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Buy The Intelligent Investor & more @ Fishpond.co.nz

Fishpond



c Share Investor 2009

Thursday, May 28, 2009

"Climate Change" theory hits business bottom line

From the Mainfreight Ltd [MFT.NZ] 2009 FY profit announcement today comes a management commentary piece about Government red tape and its associated cost.

Don Braid usually has a well placed go at Government bureaucracy when it comes to profit season and his target this time is "climate change" and carbon emissions and it is one of the largest pieces of commentary in the profit release on one subject:

Mainfreight has always attempted to reduce the environmental impact of its operations. Our sustainability initiatives have often resulted in reduced costs; so the bottom line and the environment are both winners.

Real or not, climate change is fast becoming a core strategic issue for businesses everywhere. For Mainfreight, it begins with accepting that our business is based on an activity that generates carbon emissions and then taking responsibility to reduce those emissions over time; without negatively impacting on our competitiveness.

Last year we commenced a programme of measuring the carbon emissions in our business in New Zealand with a view to extending this measurement to other countries where we have a presence, and to reducing our emissions per tonne of freight moved. We made this information available to the public through our annual report and other avenues.

This year however, we have been faced with significantly increased costs and bureaucracy from the Government departments which oversee carbon emissions, and while as a business we will continue our programme of measurement and reduction to support our long-held policies of environmental responsibility, we have chosen not to incur the substantial costs involved in the audit and certification processes that are now demanded. We believe that incurring these costs would not provide a measurable benefit and therefore would not be in the best interests of our shareholders.

Don Braid, Mainfreight Managing Director


It is good to see the middle finger being extended to the bureaucracy and cost associated with it but what is clear from Bruce's revelation is that the "climate change" zealots in our midst are costing businesses millions and this will be the same with any other business, be it a logistics company which would be heavily impacted by "climate change" red tape to a business such as Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] while less severely impacted would be impacted nonetheless.

All because of a mythical theory that the planet is warming.

It would be interesting to get comments by management from other CEOs of listed New Zealand companies to see how much it is costing their businesses. I have yet to see such comment from anyone, which is odd considering the substantial tax on company profits.


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c Share Investor 2009


Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks


It is that time of the year to pick stocks for 2009.

In the face of a global recession, an uncertain economic future and dwindling values, even for good assets, it is going to be hard to pick winners.

Please keep in mind dear readers that the picks are my own and they reflect my investment philosophy and not necessarily anyone else's.

My picks are based on a long-term view, regardless of the current short to medium term market turmoil and economic uncertainty.



Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
[FPH:NZ]



With that in mind I will kick off my picks with a company that I consider will be one of the big successes of the next 5-10 years, Fisher and Paykel Healthcare, the health care products provider.

I had it as a pick for 2008 and it has been one of the better performers this year, even though it is still well off its highs share price wise.

Company profit forecasts to March 31 2009 have been estimated at NZ$84 million and revenue is also set to grow as it has done for the past.

Fisher profits are largely immune from the current market turmoil as buyers simply have to have the products that the health care company makes regardless of a global recession.

This invincibility from outside economic influences makes the pick for my next stock a relative no-brainer.


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare @ Share Investor

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Ryman Healthcare 

[RYM:NZ]



Ryman Healthcare, the retirement home operator, carer and developer, has been increasing revenue and profit for many years and the most current profit result shows that there has been no let up in this trend with a rise of 10% to NZ$25.9 million.

Development of new villages has increased apace over the last year and there are at least half a dozen new ones ready to go at beginning 2009, including two massive villages at Orewa and Whangerei.

The long-term prospects for this company are excellent as New Zealands elderly are set to grow markedly in the future.

Metlifecare [MET:NZ], Rymans major listed competitor is also worth a look at for the same reasons as Ryman.

I have Metlifecare on my watchlist.


Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor

Share Price Alert: Ryman Healthcare Ltd 2
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Share Investor Q & A: Ryman Healthcare's CFO Gordon MacLeod
Ryman Healthcare: Interview sneak peak
Ryman Healthcare Ltd: Australian Expansion Needs Care
Share Investor Q & A: Reader Questions to Ryman CFO Gordon Macleod
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Long VS Short: Ryman Healthcare Ltd
Time for retirement?


Discuss Ryman Healthcare @ Share Investor Forum - Register free 



Mainfreight Ltd
[MFT:NZ]



Mainfreight Ltd, the New Zealand global logistics operator, have a goal of NZ$1 billion in revenue before 2010 and are only a gnats whisker short of that figure.

It is on my pick list again for 2009 as it is New Zealands best managed company and if management is good then results generally follow-this has been the history of the company thus far.

Currently business is experiencing a slow down, although profit was up nearly 10% in the last reporting period.

Management are going to approach the global market downturn with a "prudent, cautious approach to costs"-the status quo for the business since its inception.


Mainfreight @ Share Investor


Long vs Short: Mainfreight Ltd
Mainfreight drives excellent results through prudent management
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KiwiRail will cost Mainfreight
Mainfreight keeps on truckin
A rare breed



Pumpkin Patch Ltd 

[PPL.NZ]

N/A

One of the worst performing stocks of 2008 if you consider a 60% odd drop in share price this year and a drop of nearly 30% in full-year after tax profit to July 31 2008.

All is not lost though!

The company has great long-term potential, with excellent product a strong brand and very loyal customers and with the share price at just over a buck it is a relative bargain when one considers it was trading at nearly 5 dollars just over a year ago.

One to stock up on during price dips and it probably will when pre-Christmas sales figures come through during the beginning of 2009.




Pumpkin Patch @ Share Investor


Pumpkin Patch buyback shows confidence in the future
Pumpkin Patch takes a hit
Pumpkin Patch ripe for the picking
What is Jan Cameron up to?
I'm buying

Why Did you but that Stock? [Pumpkin Patch]
Rod Duke's Pumpkin Patch gets bigger
Buyer of large piece of Pumpkin Patch a mystery

Pumpkin Patch a screaming buy
Broker downgrades of PPL lack long term vision
Pumpkin's expansion comes at a cost
Pumpkin Patch VS Burger Fuel
Pumpkin Patch profits flatten
New Zealand Retailers ring up costs not tills



Other quotable notables.

Telecom NZ [TEL:NZ] for its dividend. Buy around $2.

Contact Energy [CEN:NZ], Trustpower [TPW:NZ] and Vector[VCT:NZ] Any infrastructure company, especially these electricity companies are a good buy at any time but battered share prices are a good opportunity to stock up on more or make a first buy.

Auckland International Airport[AIA:NZ] A near monopoly with a beaten down stock price, buy on further weakness.

Westpac [WBC:NZ] and ANZ Bank [ANZ:NZ]. Good opportunities exist to buy at low stock prices.

If you have the nerve, any good company is going cheap in 2009 so there are plenty of companies worth buying.

Pick wisely!


Disclosure: I own RYM, FPH, PPL, AIA, and MFT shares


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c Share Investor 2008