Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks: Looking Back

Back on December 13 2009 I picked 17 stocks in my Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks .

At that time the market had been trending up for most of 2009 and stocks were well off their late 2008, early 2009 lows.

Since December the New Zealand Stockmarket and other global indexes have headed north with the NZX 50 Gross closing at an 18 month high today. (see chart below)


With this in mind lets see how my December picks have fared 4 months latter.

Main NZX picks


Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

[FPH:NZ]

Image

Picked at $3.24 the stock is now $3.32, an approximate 2.5% increase.


Fletcher Building Ltd
[FBU.NZ]

Image

Picked at $7.65 the stock is now at $8.50, an approximate 12% increase.


The Warehouse Group
[WHS.NZ]

Image

Picked at $4.03 the stock is now at $3.80, an approximate 5% decrease.


Sky City Entertainment Group
[SKC.NZ]

Image

Picked at $3.27, the stock is now at $3.29, a less than 1% increase.


Xero Ltd
[XRO.NZ]


Picked at $1.55 the stock is now at $1.63, an approximate 5% increase.


Contact Energy Ltd
[CEN.NZ]

Image

Picked at $5.70, the stock is now at $6.50, an approximate 14% increase.


Mainfreight Ltd
[MFT.NZ]

Image

Picked at $5.60, the stock is now at $6.50, an approximate 16% increase.


Main ASX Picks


Caltex Australia Ltd
[CTX.AX]

Image

Picked at AU $8.00 the stock is now at $12.00, a 50% increase.

Coca Cola Amatil
[CCL.AX]

Image


Picked at AU $11 the stock is now at $11.25, an approximate 2% increase.


Domino's Pizza Enterprizes Ltd
[DMP.AX]

Image

Picked at AU$ 5.10 the stock is now at $5.70, an approximate 12% increase.


Minor Picks

Auckland International Airport Ltd [AIA.NZ] Up approx 5%.

Kathmandu Holdings Ltd [KMD.NZ] Up approx 20% but chosen for a dive that it took earlier in 2010

Port of Tauranga Ltd [POT.NZ] Even.

Michael Hill International Ltd [MHI.NZ] Up by approx 10%.

New Zealand Refining [NZR.NZ] Even.

Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ] Down approx 7 %.


Yum ! Brands Inc [YUM.NASDAQ] Up by approx 15%


In an overall rising market you are saying to yourself anyone can pick stocks (even a monkey with a dart can Darren) that are going to head north and you may be right. I picked some that have clearly done better than others and some that have fared very poorly indeed. Over 4 months you will get that but as time goes on stock prices will rise.

Stocks like Telecom have done particularly badly and I picked this stock because I thought it would plumb the depths, it did and bargain hunters would have done well out of this stock in the last 4 months and hopelessly over the long-term of course.

Some interesting moves down by the likes of the WHS and some very good rises by bell-weather stocks like MFT & FBU.

My best pick, a 50% rise in Caltex, just goes to show one can get lucky. It was trading at a comparative low when picked but oil prices were set to pick up on any economic recovery or at least the perception of one.

Overall a motley collection of results that will sort themselves out, given time, if I was right in the first place.


Disclosure : I own FPH, FBU, WHS, SKC, MFT, AIA shares in the Share Investor Portfolio.


Share Investor's Annual Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2010 Stock Picks

Share Investor's 2009 Stock Picks
Share Investor's 2008 stock picks

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The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A  Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition)
The Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing. A Book of Practical Counsel (Revised Edition) by Benjamin Graham
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c Share Investor 2009 - 2010